thedon

Armstrong is trailing Contador by 1:34 last I saw.

How big of a lead is this in conventional sports terms?

Is it equivalent to a 8 point lead after the third quarter of a basketball game?

Maybe a 10 point lead at halftime of a football game?

Is it a lead that Armstrong has a realistic chance of overcoming?

julian

He might pick up time in the TT but given what happened today, will lose chunks of time on Ventoux to the top climbers.

reef58

His lead is big. Very big. 2 touchdowns with 2 minutes to go. Andy appears to be the only climber that can come close, but he will lose even more time in the ITT. Armstrong has no chance to catch Alberto. Lance has some advantage over the better climbers since he can build a cushion in the ITT.

Richard

julian

Big but not that big.

reef58

Yes that big.

Richard

erader

absolutely huge. lance was lucky to have kloden pacing him or he would have lost even more "huge chunks of time" .

ed rader

julian

So you are saying over 99%?

bigskymacadam

considering the competition. pretty big lead.

Bacciagalupe

It's pretty big... part of the issue as well is how much each of them has left in the tank. Contador looked smooth the whole time, Armstrong looked chewed up.

Another way to see it is: it's a big enough gap that Astana should line up and support Contador.

thedon

Sad to hear this, I was pulling for Lance.

Now the road accusations will be fueled and Lance will get no credit for the comeback.

babysaph38

That is what I don't like about the tour. We all know it is over now.

daxr

If we were talking about him being down on someone from another team, I'd say he could probably pull it back on the TT and Ventoux. But there's no way he's going to attack Contador on Ventoux, even if he had the legs to do it, and he's not likely to get any time back on the TT either.

A strong contender on a very strong team could probably get another 1:34 out of a rival, but I don't think anyone's taking any time out of Astana this year.

cruiserhead

Everyone knew Contador would take time out of everyone- including Lance- and will continue to do so.
However Contador needs a little buffer going into the final TT because it's flat and suits the specialists.
Lance could potentially take a chunk of time out of Contador.

My feeling is it won't be enough. Contador has become a real quality TT'er and I don't see him loosing more than maybe 1:00 at the most.
With a few more mountains, he will take another min or two out of everyone and have a good buffer.

daxr

Second place is no small feat, and he's riding as the "road captain" for the strongest rider out there now. Who wouldn't want to be in his shoes?

To me, there's way more class to that than to somehow tactically work himself into the yellow ahead of a stronger rider on his own team (as some speculation was going).

cruiserhead

well if Lance had the legs, he would stay w/ Contador. You can take that to the bank!
But he can't. No one can stay with Contador- he is a class above.

Still, a podium after all Lance has been through would be spectacular.

I think Sastre could work his way into a podium too.

erader

lance armstrong for one .

ed rader

erader

that podium is getting awful crowded. my take is lance will not make the podium so maybe that does make room for sastre.

ed rader

reef58

Considering the time trial Sastre has his work cut out to catch Armstrong. He will have to take 4 or 5 minutes on stage 20. That is a tall order.

Richard

reef58

The chances of Armstrong catching Contador? I would say .0001 %. He can't attack his teammate even if he could. I doubt he can.

If Lance was smart he would have been there to support Alberto in exchange for a breakaway on stage
20.

My guess is 50% chance Lance maintains #3 spot unless he is mentally defeated now then he could really fall hard. It may be in his best interest to lose big chunks of time for a shot at stage 20.

Richard

erader

that was my way of saying that armstrong wouldn't make the podium....not that sastre would . i think lance will give up huge chunks on stage 20. his best shot for a stage win would be the ITT, and that's a longshot too.

ed rader

justinb

It's not that the lead is exceptionally huge, it's who has the lead.

Imagine Tiger with a 3 stroke lead and 2 to play, or the Jordan Bulls up 6 with 2 minutes to go, or Federer with a 5-4 advantage in the final set, or Peyton Manning needing a single first down to ice the game.

Do you really think you're coming back? Really?

Velomatic

Sastre came back in good form after being dropped today but I just don't see this happening. I think it will be similar to the Giro in that he will do well overall but have a significant gap between himself and the podium. Still, I'm a fan of his and would love to be wrong! Contador, on the other hand, looked like he could skip the rest day and still repeat today's performance.

fmw

I think Contador won the Tour today. Nobody can outclimb him. He's a decent TT rider and it would take a truly exceptional one to beat him there. And that exceptional one wouldn't likely be a climber. I think it's over.

jmpsmash

he has dug himself into this hole. even if he has the leg in one of next week's stages, he cannot attack. he was the one who acted noble and claimed to be team player last week after AC's attack. now what will the world think of him if he attack his own race leader next week?

LA is finished.

Flaneur

Cycling is a conventional sport.

Oh...and unless Contador gets sick or falls off, it's over..................