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Rivendell needs help.

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Old 02-24-18, 05:42 PM
  #126  
Cross Creek
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I bought ten of them. I'll use them on tubes and such if nothing else. Perhaps I was still riding on the high of receiving a new Frank Jones Sr frame on Monday, which would have been a bargain at twice the price—the most beautiful frame I've ever personally seen, and it's a single-speed Riv, which I've wanted for years. An extra $100 in future business to help Grant and company pay for all these neat new bikes is well worth it.
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Old 02-24-18, 05:49 PM
  #127  
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Originally Posted by Lascauxcaveman
OK, we'll do it.

And here's how we'll do it: everyone who wants to donate their $10 card to the raffle can PM me, and I will make a list. On or about 15 March 2018, I'll print out the handles of everyone who's entered on a piece of paper and have my lovely assistant pull one name out of a hat, old-school. If you are donating more than one card, you'll get more than one piece of paper with your handle on it. My name will not be in the hat. As a bonus, I will toss in a gift certificate for a free night at my hotel -- knowing it may never actually get redeemed; see my post above

I'll PM the winner, who can give me his or her address which I will forward to the card donors who will mail the cards to the winner. Or if the cards can be re-gifted electronically, we'll do it that way; whichever the participating donors prefer.

Sound good? Who's in? PM me, or post it up here.
PM sent. Count me in.
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Old 02-24-18, 06:50 PM
  #128  
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Originally Posted by cdmurphy
I'm a bit conflicted in my views on Rivendell. I think they serve an important market, I'm just not sure it's particularly viable from a business sense, and particularly trying to keep it running in the bay area. I don't know what their rent / labor / utilities / insurance overhead is, other than it's probably double what it would be in other areas of the country. That is a pretty tough hurdle to overcome when, ultimately, all online retailers are fighting against Amazon. It's no accident their prices are 2x what you can find stuff for elsewhere. The only way that works is if you are selling something unique, that can't be sourced elsewhere. Other than their frames, I just don't see what they're selling that can't be bought elsewhere, or at least something pretty close.

There is also the problem that ultimately, their suggestions as to what you really need in a bike is about 95% in line with "buy an old mountain bike, and put some townie bars on it" Sure, their bikes have lugs and much better paint, but when you get down to it, they're competing directly against a $100 used MTB, with another $100-$200 in tires and parts. There are plenty of folks that want "A Rivendell", or aren't comfortable converting an old bike, but the fact that a converted MTB checks most of the boxes means that $300 bike is always there, keeping their prices suppressed. The Treks / Specializeds / Giants of the world don't have that problem. They've pretty successfully pushed the idea that you need more gears, and more carbon to be happy. There isn't any $300 equivalent of their $5,000 carbon sleds keeping their sales and prices down. (Personally, I think most of the race oriented crowd has been hoodwinked, but there are enough of them that the big guys don't need to worry about old bikes.)

I wouldn't mind having a Rivendell, I just can't see ever buying one, when vintage road bikes, or converted MTBs deliver so much, for so little. (Which really is the essence of their problem, in a business sense.)

All that being said, I have bought a few hail Mary's. I learned a ton from Grant via his website and Rivendell Readers when I was first starting out, and that's worth a lot to me. I don't agree with all his views, especially regarding tires, trail and frame stiffness, but there's still a lot to like.
This is well put and echos a lot of my feelings on this. Right down to a Schwinn Cimarron that I converted to mimic a lot of what they are doing. It’s a fun bike, some pieces were actually purchased from Riv like the grips and Nitto Bullmoose bars.



I’m into that bike for a lot more than I really needed to be but still well under half of what a frame alone would be from Riv. I’ve owned an RB1, RB2, and an RBT and all were nice but at the end of the day, people were willing to pay well north of the value I felt they deserved to be given the following.

Ultimately, it’s hard not to appreciate Grant and Riv for what they’ve provided the bike world. But much of this seems to be very much self inflicted. It would be disappointing to see them go and harder to source some things but there does seem to be ways to make things work. Albeit attached to some tough decisions. This ‘Hail Mary’ may help but screams last gasp without said changes.
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Old 02-24-18, 08:03 PM
  #129  
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Originally Posted by cdmurphy
It's no accident their prices are 2x what you can find stuff for elsewhere. The only way that works is if you are selling something unique, that can't be sourced elsewhere. Other than their frames, I just don't see what they're selling that can't be bought elsewhere, or at least something pretty close.
/\

This

Add in brick and mortar in the Bay area and you're clearly on an unsustainable path.

I honestly haven't visited the Riv site in a couple years. The mix of product is mainly in my parts bin, or hanging on pegs in my shop. I know I'm an exception to their average customer, but I wouldn't need to spend $3K to roll their brand of slow and happy. Still I hope the best for this type of business (but not with my fronted $'s given they have very little that I'd actually buy)
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Old 02-24-18, 10:16 PM
  #130  
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I had never bought from Riv until the email blast came out earlier in the week. I also learned many things from their website in the early days of my getting back on a bicycle. Hopefully he will be able survive. It isn't just about him, there are a dozen other people mentioned in the blast. When I get paid again next week I will go back and get another credit and a couple of more tools to help him out.
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Old 02-24-18, 10:54 PM
  #131  
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The subtext is that Grant and Paul Manafort have something in common- no more bankers to bail them out. And Grant cannot offer a Sec. Of The Army position either.
Bicycles are near adventure capitalism. The gift card play is novel, I would take it seriously if it included an "interest" component of higher face value upon redemption.
Grant needs an investor, one with more sophisticated business skills. I see an asset sale down the road.
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Old 02-25-18, 12:02 AM
  #132  
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Originally Posted by repechage
The subtext is that Grant and Paul Manafort have something in common- no more bankers to bail them out. And Grant cannot offer a Sec. Of The Army position either.
Bicycles are near adventure capitalism. The gift card play is novel, I would take it seriously if it included an "interest" component of higher face value upon redemption.
Grant needs an investor, one with more sophisticated business skills. I see an asset sale down the road.
From what I've read, Manafort was clearly defrauding bankers, laundering money more or less stolen (not delivering what he promised) from Russian-backed Ukraine political interests in shady deals by funneling it though his domestic real estate investments.

As I understand it, Grant's main crime is attempting to sell bicycles and accessories, and despite his rather high prices, not consistently making enough profit to pay all the bills.

So yeah, same deal, you pretty much nailed it.
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Old 02-25-18, 09:01 AM
  #133  
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As I ponder this situation GP finds himself in atm, I think he could look at efficiencies used by Mike Varley at Black Mountain Cycles.

Mike comes up with a winning formula of putting out small batches of framesets that feature versatility in their dna.

He doesn't offer loads of framesets that, at times, resemble bikes we can pick up at garage sales for el-cheapo prices.

He does a nice road frame and a monstercross that are a blast to ride.

They are priced right at about $600 or so.

That's part of the Rivendell problem. He's got loads of overhead with inventory. It simply isn't turning fast enough.

Another thing Mike does well is his small bike shop in Pt. Reyes.

I was thoroughly impressed when my wife and I visited the area last year and stopped by his shop.

There were loads of tourers and mtb'ers hanging outside and Mike was working his tail off repairing a couple of their bikes with issues.

No massive inventory in sight, just the goodies needed to keep folks on the road.

No hatchets, bars of soap and expensive work shirts.

I think GP could focus on a lean line up that features bikes people really want.

I would keep an Atlantis all arounder, a real rando machine modeled on an Ebisu quality level/price point, a practical lower cost city bike, a modern version of the XO-1, a Hunqapillar and perhaps a Quickbeam.

Keep the prices down, stop model name changes that people can't keep up with, keep inventory tight and make sure staffing is kept at a sustainable level in the shop.

Just my 2 cents.....
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Old 02-25-18, 09:16 AM
  #134  
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Originally Posted by Lascauxcaveman
From what I've read, Manafort was clearly defrauding bankers, laundering money more or less stolen (not delivering what he promised) from Russian-backed Ukraine political interests in shady deals by funneling it though his domestic real estate investments.

As I understand it, Grant's main crime is attempting to sell bicycles and accessories, and despite his rather high prices, not consistently making enough profit to pay all the bills.

So yeah, same deal, you pretty much nailed it.


A nice analysis of an apples to oranges comparison.

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Old 02-25-18, 09:30 AM
  #135  
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Originally Posted by Lascauxcaveman
From what I've read, Manafort was clearly defrauding bankers, laundering money more or less stolen (not delivering what he promised) from Russian-backed Ukraine political interests in shady deals by funneling it though his domestic real estate investments.

As I understand it, Grant's main crime is attempting to sell bicycles and accessories, and despite his rather high prices, not consistently making enough profit to pay all the bills.

So yeah, same deal, you pretty much nailed it.
The commonality is only in lack of access to capital. Therein is the risk. Grant's prospective lenders get to see all the financials. The ask of a small "risk-able" sum with only a printed catalog on offer is novel. I do think this is near crunch time, there have been previous admissions that things were wobbly in prior years. He made an attempt to change/expand the lineup. One problem is the top line products are durable goods with a long service life. If the bike fits the need, either the need changes or there is desire for something new to spur further sales. Otherwise you sell consumables, maybe a good plan, others in the market have followed then expanded into frame sets.
I did browse the website, compared to say three years ago it is confused of theme. Lots of models with very slight change of purpose. To me it looks like it has been a rough go for a while, searching for a wider client base. Always capital risky.
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Old 02-25-18, 09:32 AM
  #136  
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Socialist are the most mean spirited people I encounter. Without corporations making profit, you would have no bikes.
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Old 02-25-18, 10:02 AM
  #137  
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Originally Posted by repechage
Lots of models with very slight change of purpose. To me it looks like it has been a rough go for a while, searching for a wider client base. Always capital risky.
Yes, that's quite true.

As an aside, I am shopping for a new city bike for my wife.

Nothing fancy mind you.

I was at a local shop yesterday and they reported selling four bikes in four hours.

Every bike sold was the new Surly Midnight Special or a Salsa Fargo.

Each was less than $2,000 and each featured the ability to run very wide tires.

Decent all road bikes. imho

I find it hard to believe GP couldn't figure out how to do this if he focused on trends just a bit.
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Old 02-25-18, 10:19 AM
  #138  
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Originally Posted by Steve Whitlatch
Socialist are the most mean spirited people I encounter. Without corporations making profit, you would have no bikes.
Yes, we certainly will never get any bicycles from the socialist economies of France, Italy, England, or Japan. Nor does socialism lead to the demise of corporations.
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Old 02-25-18, 10:28 AM
  #139  
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Originally Posted by prathmann
Yes, we certainly will never get any bicycles from the socialist economies of France, Italy, England, or Japan. Nor does socialism lead to the demise of corporations.
You confuse socialist entitlement programs with being a true socialist country. Unless, you are trying to say that the English and Japanese are not allowed to profit in their countries? Campagnolo is in the red? Colnago is non profit? I thought for sure the English manufacturers made money. France, I am not so sure of?
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Old 02-25-18, 10:38 AM
  #140  
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Originally Posted by prathmann
Yes, we certainly will never get any bicycles from the socialist economies of France, Italy, England, or Japan. Nor does socialism lead to the demise of corporations.
Every time you buy a Campagnolo part, you are paying for the materials used, labor, payroll and a part of someones free healthcare.
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Old 02-25-18, 10:44 AM
  #141  
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Could we not discuss that political stuff? Thanks. Get enough of it in the real world.
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Old 02-25-18, 10:48 AM
  #142  
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Let's leave the political and social commentary out of C&V.

'K thanks.
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Old 02-25-18, 11:25 AM
  #143  
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Originally Posted by cb400bill
Let's leave the political and social commentary out of C&V.

'K thanks.
Good call.

Back on topic: we now have five Hail Mary card donors on record, so the raffle pot is up to $50 in Rivvy credit. PM me if you have one and want to play.

Proponents of all economic ideologies can take comfort in the fact that what we are doing here is neither capitalism nor socialism; just good old fashioned gambling.

Reminder: if you are playing, you will be required to send the card/code to the winner once that winner is announced.
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Old 02-25-18, 11:51 AM
  #144  
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Originally Posted by gomango
As I ponder this situation GP finds himself in atm, I think he could look at efficiencies used by Mike Varley at Black Mountain Cycles.

Mike comes up with a winning formula of putting out small batches of framesets that feature versatility in their dna.

He doesn't offer loads of framesets that, at times, resemble bikes we can pick up at garage sales for el-cheapo prices.

He does a nice road frame and a monstercross that are a blast to ride.

They are priced right at about $600 or so.

That's part of the Rivendell problem. He's got loads of overhead with inventory. It simply isn't turning fast enough.

Another thing Mike does well is his small bike shop in Pt. Reyes.

I was thoroughly impressed when my wife and I visited the area last year and stopped by his shop.

There were loads of tourers and mtb'ers hanging outside and Mike was working his tail off repairing a couple of their bikes with issues.

No massive inventory in sight, just the goodies needed to keep folks on the road.

No hatchets, bars of soap and expensive work shirts.

I think GP could focus on a lean line up that features bikes people really want.

I would keep an Atlantis all arounder, a real rando machine modeled on an Ebisu quality level/price point, a practical lower cost city bike, a modern version of the XO-1, a Hunqapillar and perhaps a Quickbeam.

Keep the prices down, stop model name changes that people can't keep up with, keep inventory tight and make sure staffing is kept at a sustainable level in the shop.

Just my 2 cents.....
Yep, going small and focused, while keeping the small shop cred is the way to go. In GP's case, he oozes cred without the need for all the lifestyle stuff. He could run a shop out of his basement and still be a legend.

I feel like the present GP situation is just digging a greater hole for himself, one that he may not get out of. Sell the majority of the inventory cheap and don't re-order the lifestyle or standard stuff like XT derailleurs that can be sourced elsewhere for much less. Slim the frame range to half the models that are really different than the competition AND targeted toward riders that will spend that kind of dough (don't compete in the road bike space, and carefully consider if his target demographic wants a $2K Clem when CL is littered with bikes that are so very similar). The rest is just tying up his capital that could be put toward stuff that everyone can appreciate as being both "Granty" and worth the premium.

That black mountain frame was mighty nice when I had it in my mitts, and really a great all rounder. It was the first of the "wider tire" steel bikes I'd ridden that felt lively.
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Old 02-25-18, 12:16 PM
  #145  
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I bought one. They probably don't even ship to where I live (Budapest, Hungary), but I figured I have already received way more than $10 worth of value from Grant's blog, and the couple of Rivendell readers that are available online.
The way I see it, Rivendell's niche is very similar to Jan Heine's. How come one has cash flow problems, and the other is (or seems to be) doing fine?
I'd also love to have an AHH or any other Rivendell frame, but between vintage road bikes and MTBs that can be had for a tenth of the price, I don't think it's going to happen any time soon.
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Old 02-25-18, 12:36 PM
  #146  
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Originally Posted by lubloi
The way I see it, Rivendell's niche is very similar to Jan Heine's. How come one has cash flow problems, and the other is (or seems to be) doing fine?
Jan sells stuff that mostly doesn't have competition. You can't get Rene Herse cranksets anywhere else, and he sells them for a hell of a lot more than comparable cranks. His best niche is tires. Consumables that no one else has - right now. Specialized used that approach back in the day.

Outside of frames and high priced canvas bags, Riv sells a lot of stuff you can get elsewhere. It seems that if it's something that Grant really likes, he sells it, regardless of competition. Jan focuses on his niche.

I seem to think that Jan runs his business more like a business. Grant runs his like a co-op.
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Old 02-25-18, 12:47 PM
  #147  
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Thanks Gugie. That makes a lot of sense. I hope that Grant reads this and adjusts his business model...
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Old 02-25-18, 01:43 PM
  #148  
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For those of you who haven't been following Rivendell closely, this ain't the first time they've had money problems. At the very beginning Grant sold stock at $1 a share to friends. I'm not sure what they got out of it.

What's the difference between Grant/Rivendell and George Bailey/Savings and Loan?

Lot of people here helping out George, a few Potters have chipped in.

Grant's a few years older than me, which means he's probably not very far from a retirement. He's already stated that he's thinking of how to keep Rivendell around when he's gone. They've discussed moving the company to Southern Oregon, which would cut costs. There's also thinking of a "succession" plan. Maybe the new decision maker(s) will start looking at Rivendell more as a business. Something tells me, however, that part of the appeal of Rivendell is the quixotic nature of their business. People want to believe that everything mainstream is a conspiracy to take money out of our pockets without regard to the value of what's returned. Maybe people are right.

Many of those that consider themselves part of the Elfdom seem to believe everything that comes out on the Blahg. Doesn't that just replace the believe that bike should be as light as possible, disc brakes are for every day riding, and carbon fiber is the ultimate in frame material?

I think many of us just root for a guy who's willing to go against the mainstream.
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Old 02-25-18, 01:49 PM
  #149  
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Originally Posted by gomango
Yes, that's quite true.

As an aside, I am shopping for a new city bike for my wife.

Nothing fancy mind you.

I was at a local shop yesterday and they reported selling four bikes in four hours.

Every bike sold was the new Surly Midnight Special or a Salsa Fargo.

Each was less than $2,000 and each featured the ability to run very wide tires.

Decent all road bikes. imho

I find it hard to believe GP couldn't figure out how to do this if he focused on trends just a bit.
Surly midnight special is an interesting bicycle. At first glance the Salsa Fargo is less interesting but it does get the handlebars up to saddle level without looking ungainly. Note; both rely on TIG welding.
Market trends are a trick to spot and respond to.
Riv' is in the same boat as many a USA bike brand right now, the industry had a tough last two years as visible from the 2016 and 2017 models that linger "on special" at the local LBS and online.
2018 will be an interesting year.
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Old 02-25-18, 01:58 PM
  #150  
repechage
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Originally Posted by gugie
For those of you who haven't been following Rivendell closely, this ain't the first time they've had money problems. At the very beginning Grant sold stock at $1 a share to friends. I'm not sure what they got out of it.

What's the difference between Grant/Rivendell and George Bailey/Savings and Loan?

Lot of people here helping out George, a few Potters have chipped in.

Grant's a few years older than me, which means he's probably not very far from a retirement. He's already stated that he's thinking of how to keep Rivendell around when he's gone. They've discussed moving the company to Southern Oregon, which would cut costs. There's also thinking of a "succession" plan. Maybe the new decision maker(s) will start looking at Rivendell more as a business. Something tells me, however, that part of the appeal of Rivendell is the quixotic nature of their business. People want to believe that everything mainstream is a conspiracy to take money out of our pockets without regard to the value of what's returned. Maybe people are right.

Many of those that consider themselves part of the Elfdom seem to believe everything that comes out on the Blahg. Doesn't that just replace the believe that bike should be as light as possible, disc brakes are for every day riding, and carbon fiber is the ultimate in frame material?

I think many of us just root for a guy who's willing to go against the mainstream.
Rivendell unfortunately is just a brand. Not a maker. They did well enough to catch the attention of others.
I think there would be no Velo Orange without them, maybe no Compass. I can think of a few others too.
The danger for all of this business model is a lack of mfg. cost control.
Bikes are dangerous business.
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