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Corona virus affecting your training?

Old 03-07-20, 10:34 AM
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bruce19
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Corona virus affecting your training?

I went to the supermarket today and saw my first person with a mask. I am in northeast CT and CT has had one reported case as of this morning. There is not a hand sanitizer to be found around here. Since this is the off season I go to the gym 5 days/wk. I'm starting to wonder whether I should try to train at home. Just wondering it others are having their training affected by this situation.
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Old 03-07-20, 10:52 AM
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I'm lucky enough to live in an area where I can ride year round but also hit the gym 3 times a week for weights. As the virus spreads to this area I'm thinking about suspending my gym membership until things start to get better. I've already inquired and they are fine with that since I'm on a month-to-month anyway. Seems like the gym, no matter how careful you are, would be a prime place to pick up infections.

It was quite windy here yesterday so I decided to skip riding and would normally have substituted a gym session but decided to go hiking instead. Think I'll alternate cycling/hiking for the foreseeable future since at my age I don't want to take a chance with COVID-19 if I can avoid it. Also stocked up on some food items not because I think there will be a shortage but it will limit the number of trips to the crowded market. Was lucky enough to score a 24oz bottle of hand sanitizer on Monday but it was the last one on the shelf.
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Old 03-07-20, 11:25 AM
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Coronavirus hasn't had any negative effect on my cycling...To all the people who are worried about going to gym, I say you don't need gym membership. You can train at home, all you need is some basic equipment.
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Old 03-07-20, 11:26 AM
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One big problem is the supply chain for just about everything. Approx. 80% of the medication used in the US, for instance, are actually made in China. I've heard that Apple,Starbucks and Amazon (among others) are shutting down facilities in places like China and Italy. I fear that this is going to be much worse than we've heard thus far.
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Old 03-07-20, 02:00 PM
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Going to the gym is more a public health issue than a personal concern. Your chance of getting the virus at the gym is vary low if you wipe everything off before and after like you're supposed to do and you wash your hands when you come in and leave. The general wearing of masks is not advised. Only wear one if you are sick (with anything).

The problem is that if one or more people who have been there come down with the virus, then everyone who's been there during that period needs to self-quarantine. You don't want that, the economy doesn't need that. You're not hearing that from the media yet, but you will as soon as things heat up. It won't be long now.

I've stopped going, but I'm not pausing my membership! We want the gym to be there when all this is over. I'll do some calisthenics and strength work on the bike.
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Old 03-07-20, 03:03 PM
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Cycling? No. Everything else? Guh. The Costco is still out of toilet paper, all the idiots are hoarding it. I went to pick up shredded beef and tortillas, the line was 100+ people deep 20 minutes before the doors opened, all stocking up for the CORONAPOCALYPSE.

The air in every public place is thick with the scent of hand sanitizer.
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Old 03-07-20, 03:11 PM
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Originally Posted by DrIsotope View Post
Cycling? No. Everything else? Guh. The Costco is still out of toilet paper, all the idiots are hoarding it. I went to pick up shredded beef and tortillas, the line was 100+ people deep 20 minutes before the doors opened, all stocking up for the CORONAPOCALYPSE.

The air in every public place is thick with the scent of hand sanitizer.
Are you saying that you have scientific/medical info that suggests that this is not that serious? If so, could you post it? I would like to feel better about this.
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Old 03-07-20, 03:22 PM
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To paraphrase the Surgeon General, so far in the US in 2020 there have been 11 fatalities from COVID-19. During the same time period, the regular, run-of-the-mill flu has killed around 18,000. COVID-19 is of greater risk to people who are already at risk-- people over 60, particularly those with pre-existing conditions of increased morbidity, like diabetes, heart disease, etc. For 95% of the population: wash your hands, don't let strangers sneeze into your mouth. Wearing a mask does nothing, stocking up on "essentials" just empties store shelves and prepares for an unlikely outcome.
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Old 03-07-20, 05:30 PM
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Here's a chart of current best knowledge, from this link: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...ty-to-covid-19
which includes links to the originating studies.
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Old 03-07-20, 05:33 PM
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Iím just going to try not to ride next to people who are sneezing; )

Kidding, I take the NYC subway every day so I think thatís a lot riskier and we all seem to be pretty much ignoring it, business as usual.

80 cases in NY now, if it really starts blowing up, Iíll work from home for a few days I think.
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Old 03-07-20, 06:59 PM
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For comparison, H5N1, aka the avian flu or "bird flu" had an adjusted fatality rate of nearly 60%-- thankfully, very few people got it.

At the complete opposite end of the spectrum, if we look at the "normal" flu for the 2017-2018 "flu season," there were 45,000,000 cases, 810,000 hospitalizations, and 61,000 deaths.

As COVID-19 is perhaps roughly 10x as deadly as the flu we all get, we'd be looking at ~5 million cases before any threat of deaths occuring in significant numbers. Cases as of today in the US: 437.
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Old 03-07-20, 07:45 PM
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Originally Posted by DrIsotope View Post
To paraphrase the Surgeon General, so far in the US in 2020 there have been 11 fatalities from COVID-19. During the same time period, the regular, run-of-the-mill flu has killed around 18,000. COVID-19 is of greater risk to people who are already at risk-- people over 60, particularly those with pre-existing conditions of increased morbidity, like diabetes, heart disease, etc. For 95% of the population: wash your hands, don't let strangers sneeze into your mouth. Wearing a mask does nothing, stocking up on "essentials" just empties store shelves and prepares for an unlikely outcome.
That statement from the SG is one of the stupidest things I've seen but what do we expect? The "information" I have seen coming from our Federal government is very much at odds with what I'm seeing from scientific and epidemiological sources. I have a riding buddy who's a PhD epidemiologist. He says we haven't seen anything yet because we don't know anything other than that the virus is in our communities and nothing is being done. A local nursing home is where most of the US deaths have occurred. They have 70-80 employees who being refused testing - after all they didn't just fly in from China. And they go home and go shopping. That's what we're up against.

It's probably true that we don't have to worry about being quarantined if we've been exposed to the virus, so no need to stock up. After all, how'd we know? And who'd advise doing that? Pence? This virus has about that same fatality rate as the 1918 flu, when 675,000 Americans died of it - out of our 103,000,000 total population.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm behaving like I'm right. We didn't buy TP, but we did buy sanitary wipes and a case of 70% alcohol. My wife and I are in the 20-25% fatality risk group.
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Old 03-07-20, 07:57 PM
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Originally Posted by bruce19 View Post
One big problem is the supply chain for just about everything. Approx. 80% of the medication used in the US, for instance, are actually made in China. I've heard that Apple,Starbucks and Amazon (among others) are shutting down facilities in places like China and Italy. I fear that this is going to be much worse than we've heard thus far.
I think this is well on the way to being worst than the masterminds in Washington admit. After all, they are the ones who don't believe in science's findings.
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Old 03-07-20, 08:14 PM
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Originally Posted by bruce19 View Post
I went to the supermarket today and saw my first person with a mask. I am in northeast CT and CT has had one reported case as of this morning. There is not a hand sanitizer to be found around here. Since this is the off season I go to the gym 5 days/wk. I'm starting to wonder whether I should try to train at home. Just wondering it others are having their training affected by this situation.
It's not even remotely affecting my training ... there's no reason for it to affect my training.

And really? Your first person with a mask? I've been going to university for 5 years with classes of 500 students, roughly 300 of which are Chinese. Several of them wear masks as a matter of course ... even though it's actually not a particularly good idea to wear them.

Just wash your hands regularly.

Oh, and if you're in the US where you're apparently not getting good information ... follow the advice on these sites.

Canadian Government Advice ... good for this flu ... good for all flus and colds.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...-prepared.html

Only 3 Canadian provinces have incidents:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...infection.html


Australian Government Advice ... good for this flu ... good for all flus and colds.
https://www.health.gov.au/health-top...irus-2019-ncov

All 6 Australian states have incidents:
https://www.health.gov.au/news/healt...v-health-alert
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Old 03-08-20, 12:46 AM
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I'm not going to the gym, all I ever do there is lift weights. I skied (Nordic) for a couple hours today which is like full body road cycling.

All the grocery stores in my neighborhood have TP. I've heard people talking about empty shelves around the city, I guess it's different from one store to the next.

I've got family in the high risk group.
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Old 03-08-20, 07:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka View Post
It's not even remotely affecting my training ... there's no reason for it to affect my training.

And really? Your first person with a mask? I've been going to university for 5 years with classes of 500 students, roughly 300 of which are Chinese. Several of them wear masks as a matter of course ... even though it's actually not a particularly good idea to wear them.

Just wash your hands regularly.

Oh, and if you're in the US where you're apparently not getting good information ... follow the advice on these sites.

Canadian Government Advice ... good for this flu ... good for all flus and colds.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...-prepared.html

Only 3 Canadian provinces have incidents:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...infection.html


Australian Government Advice ... good for this flu ... good for all flus and colds.
https://www.health.gov.au/health-top...irus-2019-ncov

All 6 Australian states have incidents:
https://www.health.gov.au/news/healt...v-health-alert
Thanks. Going to check these out.
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Old 03-09-20, 07:14 AM
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It hasn't affected me yet, but I'm definitely getting to the point where I'm thinking about it. I have a home gym, and one that is near my work (I swim and play basketball there, so I use the gym since I'm already paying for a membership). I like lifting at lunch since it's a good use of my time, but I may just stick with working out at home for the near future.
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Old 03-09-20, 07:20 AM
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Originally Posted by DrIsotope View Post
To paraphrase the Surgeon General, so far in the US in 2020 there have been 11 fatalities from COVID-19. During the same time period, the regular, run-of-the-mill flu has killed around 18,000. COVID-19 is of greater risk to people who are already at risk-- people over 60, particularly those with pre-existing conditions of increased morbidity, like diabetes, heart disease, etc. For 95% of the population: wash your hands, don't let strangers sneeze into your mouth. Wearing a mask does nothing, stocking up on "essentials" just empties store shelves and prepares for an unlikely outcome.
Originally Posted by Carbonfiberboy View Post
That statement from the SG is one of the stupidest things I've seen but what do we expect? The "information" I have seen coming from our Federal government is very much at odds with what I'm seeing from scientific and epidemiological sources. I have a riding buddy who's a PhD epidemiologist. He says we haven't seen anything yet because we don't know anything other than that the virus is in our communities and nothing is being done. A local nursing home is where most of the US deaths have occurred. They have 70-80 employees who being refused testing - after all they didn't just fly in from China. And they go home and go shopping. That's what we're up against.

It's probably true that we don't have to worry about being quarantined if we've been exposed to the virus, so no need to stock up. After all, how'd we know? And who'd advise doing that? Pence? This virus has about that same fatality rate as the 1918 flu, when 675,000 Americans died of it - out of our 103,000,000 total population.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm behaving like I'm right. We didn't buy TP, but we did buy sanitary wipes and a case of 70% alcohol. My wife and I are in the 20-25% fatality risk group.
Yeah. Your surgeon general also said that on obese 73 year old was healthier than he (a fit man in his 40s) was. I'm not sure I'd believe him on anything with political implications. Look at how other countries are reacting. They're not doing that for laughs.
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Old 03-09-20, 08:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka View Post
It's not even remotely affecting my training ... there's no reason for it to affect my training.

And really? Your first person with a mask? I've been going to university for 5 years with classes of 500 students, roughly 300 of which are Chinese. Several of them wear masks as a matter of course ... even though it's actually not a particularly good idea to wear them.

Just wash your hands regularly.

Oh, and if you're in the US where you're apparently not getting good information ... follow the advice on these sites.

Canadian Government Advice ... good for this flu ... good for all flus and colds.
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...-prepared.html

Only 3 Canadian provinces have incidents:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...infection.html


Australian Government Advice ... good for this flu ... good for all flus and colds.
https://www.health.gov.au/health-top...irus-2019-ncov

All 6 Australian states have incidents:
https://www.health.gov.au/news/healt...v-health-alert
Minor note: the corona virus isn't the flu.
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Old 03-09-20, 08:15 AM
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Old 03-09-20, 08:18 AM
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Originally Posted by DrIsotope View Post

Source for this data?
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Old 03-09-20, 08:37 AM
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Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19) -- China, 2020

And try to remember: actual numbers of cases of COVID-19 will be every bit as hard to track as cases of the "normal" flu-- over 80% of people never get more than mild symptoms, so they are never tested/treated, and therefore do not become "confirmed cases."
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Old 03-09-20, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by DrIsotope View Post
For comparison, H5N1, aka the avian flu or "bird flu" had an adjusted fatality rate of nearly 60%-- thankfully, very few people got it.

At the complete opposite end of the spectrum, if we look at the "normal" flu for the 2017-2018 "flu season," there were 45,000,000 cases, 810,000 hospitalizations, and 61,000 deaths.

As COVID-19 is perhaps roughly 10x as deadly as the flu we all get, we'd be looking at ~5 million cases before any threat of deaths occuring in significant numbers. Cases as of today in the US: 437.
First, no one believes the 437 number. It's low due to the lack of tests. That's the number that have tested positive, not the number that have it.
Second, the epidemic is just starting which is why the numbers are low. They grow exponentially.
Third , this virus is believed to be as contagious as the flu if not more so with an R0 value of between 2 and 3 (vs 1.3 for the flu).
Fourth, the incubation period is estimated to typically be 5 days (but could be as long as 14). So any action you take for containment is automatically 5 days after the fact.

So, without drastic containment measures, there would almost certainly be more than 45,000,000 cases within the next year. That would conservatively mean 610,000 deaths and > 5,000,000 hospitalizations. I doubt very much that your medical system can handle that. Now keep in mind that credible experts have speculated that the number infected could range from 140,000,000 to 245,000,000. If the mortality rate is just 1%, you're looking at more American deaths than the combined number from every war that the USA has ever fought.
What will happen to people who have no "in network" hospitals with space available? How much damage will it cause the economy when many have to declare bankruptcy?
What will happen to the performance of doctors and nurses when they are forced to work long hours for an extended period of time?
How many old people (who tend to visit hospitals regularly) will be put at risk every time they go?
People are still going to be having babies, getting their appendix removed, having heart attacks etc. They will all be at risk, both from the virus and from overworked medical staff.

There's a reason why Italy has quarantined 16,000,000 people. It doesn't do that for the seasonal flu. It's necessary to try to prevent the above from happening. But this will lead to:
As others have said, how will supply chain disruptions from other countries instituting quarantines affect people's lives? Some products will almost certainly see drastic shortages. Some of those products will be essential.
What will the economic damage of people self quarantining for 2 weeks whenever they get exposed?
How many business will be affected, like gyms, who have people cancel their memberships?
Sporting events and other types of entertainment are being cancelled. How will those industries be affected?

Look, I don't think people need to be clearing out stores of toilet paper at this point. But the idea that this isn't significantly worse than the flu is simply not true. All of us are likely to be significantly affected in the following year.
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Old 03-09-20, 09:56 AM
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A very serious issue for the US is that most of our medical supplies and many medications come from China. And for financial reasons (they're for-profit and competitive), US hospitals do not stock anything, preferring to do JIT ordering. So that's masks, gowns, gloves, all that stuff. Chinese goods of all descriptions are stuck in various locations.

One good thing that we have, we who are constantly training, virus or not, is that we don't smoke. And that's one thing that's skewing the China data because smoking makes the symptoms much, much worse and something like 80% of Chinese males smoke, though it's more like 5% for females. So there's reason to believe we'll have better survival rates here, in this forum for sure.
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Old 03-09-20, 12:30 PM
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On a happy note and apropos this thread, we took the tandem on our usual Sunday ride yesterday, including both a coffee stop and a beer celebration. Washed our hands before and after the stops, opened the doors with napkins or paper towels, cleaned our car with wipes when we got there, had a really fun ride in the SUN. Traffic was really light, even for a Sunday morning. Suspect few are going to church. Our synagogue has cancelled everything. Ride participation was also down, only the fanatics showed up. We never get as good a workout as when we are chasing down someone - they drop us on the hills and we chase for all we're worth, usually getting them back - except of course the fast riders, whom we never see again until beer. Yesterday though I was able to give the fast group an extra hilly loop near the start so that they caught us just in time for the last 12 fairly flat miles, where we finished the destruction of our legs holding their wheels. Great joy, why we do it.
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