Froome or Thomas? Confusion?
07-21-18, 03:42 AM
#1
Newbie
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 4
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
Froome or Thomas? Confusion?
I enjoy watching the Tour de France every year over the last few years... and this year, placed a bet on it. I done an accumulator bet and all my other sporting selections have won, so I’m left with just my Tour de France bet. This was chris Froome to win the tour.
Hes currently 1 minute and 39 behind Geraint Thomas.
from watching the stages that Thomas won back to back, Thomas looked great, and Froome looked knackered.
The bookies currently have froome as still odds on to win ahead of Thomas.
My question to you knowledgable people... is that realistic? Where does he make up 1 minute 30? I just can’t see a situation where he’s pulling away and leaving Thomas, like Thomas has been doing to him?
im just not really in the know, and was hoping I guess for someone to fight froome’s corner for me. Lol.
Thanks.
Hes currently 1 minute and 39 behind Geraint Thomas.
from watching the stages that Thomas won back to back, Thomas looked great, and Froome looked knackered.
The bookies currently have froome as still odds on to win ahead of Thomas.
My question to you knowledgable people... is that realistic? Where does he make up 1 minute 30? I just can’t see a situation where he’s pulling away and leaving Thomas, like Thomas has been doing to him?
im just not really in the know, and was hoping I guess for someone to fight froome’s corner for me. Lol.
Thanks.
07-21-18, 06:07 AM
#2
Heretic
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 2,246
Bikes: Specialized Sirrus, Giant OCR3, Giant CRS3
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2827 Post(s)
Liked 561 Times
in
429 Posts
This time next week they will be doing a 31km hilly time trial, so my bet is the bookies are counting on Froome's superior TTing ability to put him in yellow before Paris. Not sure they are right. Anyway there's a lot of things that could happen before the TT.
07-21-18, 06:48 AM
#3
Newbie
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 4
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
so with you saying Froome/the bookies could be banking on the time trial...
what sort of time differences would you see between the big riders and favourites? Like Froome, Thomas etc.
I guess im just used to formula one lol, where the differences are splits of a second.
sure I realise it won’t be like that here, but are we talking minutes? Especially with the likes of Froome and Thomas?
as obviously at the moment anyway Froome is a minute and a half down.
07-21-18, 06:55 AM
#4
Senior Member
Sometimes people forget what happened in recent history. In this case, that recent history happened only several weeks ago.
Review what happened at the Giro. Everyone thought Yates was unbeatable, and Froome was toast, heading into the 3rd week. Then Yates crumbled and lost 38ish minutes in a single stage, plummeting from first to out of the top 10. Froome attacked the 2nd of three climbs, then attacked the descent, handily winning the stage and taking the lead, ultimately winning the Giro.
Froome has targeted his peak fitness for the 3rd week of the tour, and there are three mountain stages left. Froome will likely attack on any of those mountain stages. In the past, most GC riders would attack on stages with an uphill finish, e.g. Stage 17. But again, Froome attacks both climbs and descents, so any of those mountain stages are fair game.
Then there's the final individual time trial. Time trials are one of Froome's strengths. He has a bronze medal from the London Olympics.
If Geraint Thomas manages to stay in the top 3 heading into Paris, it'll be a first. Historically he has always cracked, and he's not alone. Year after year, at every grand tour, people always forget how difficult it is to hold form through a 3 week race. And that is why Team Sky still has Froome as their designated leader and cannot bet on Thomas until he proves himself.
Review what happened at the Giro. Everyone thought Yates was unbeatable, and Froome was toast, heading into the 3rd week. Then Yates crumbled and lost 38ish minutes in a single stage, plummeting from first to out of the top 10. Froome attacked the 2nd of three climbs, then attacked the descent, handily winning the stage and taking the lead, ultimately winning the Giro.
Froome has targeted his peak fitness for the 3rd week of the tour, and there are three mountain stages left. Froome will likely attack on any of those mountain stages. In the past, most GC riders would attack on stages with an uphill finish, e.g. Stage 17. But again, Froome attacks both climbs and descents, so any of those mountain stages are fair game.
Then there's the final individual time trial. Time trials are one of Froome's strengths. He has a bronze medal from the London Olympics.
If Geraint Thomas manages to stay in the top 3 heading into Paris, it'll be a first. Historically he has always cracked, and he's not alone. Year after year, at every grand tour, people always forget how difficult it is to hold form through a 3 week race. And that is why Team Sky still has Froome as their designated leader and cannot bet on Thomas until he proves himself.
Last edited by colombo357; 07-21-18 at 07:02 AM.
07-21-18, 07:32 AM
#5
Newbie
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 4
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
Sometimes people forget what happened in recent history. In this case, that recent history happened only several weeks ago.
Review what happened at the Giro. Everyone thought Yates was unbeatable, and Froome was toast, heading into the 3rd week. Then Yates crumbled and lost 38ish minutes in a single stage, plummeting from first to out of the top 10. Froome attacked the 2nd of three climbs, then attacked the descent, handily winning the stage and taking the lead, ultimately winning the Giro.
Froome has targeted his peak fitness for the 3rd week of the tour, and there are three mountain stages left. Froome will likely attack on any of those mountain stages. In the past, most GC riders would attack on stages with an uphill finish, e.g. Stage 17. But again, Froome attacks both climbs and descents, so any of those mountain stages are fair game.
Then there's the final individual time trial. Time trials are one of Froome's strengths. He has a bronze medal from the London Olympics.
If Geraint Thomas manages to stay in the top 3 heading into Paris, it'll be a first. Historically he has always cracked, and he's not alone. Year after year, at every grand tour, people always forget how difficult it is to hold form through a 3 week race. And that is why Team Sky still has Froome as their designated leader and cannot bet on Thomas until he proves himself.
Review what happened at the Giro. Everyone thought Yates was unbeatable, and Froome was toast, heading into the 3rd week. Then Yates crumbled and lost 38ish minutes in a single stage, plummeting from first to out of the top 10. Froome attacked the 2nd of three climbs, then attacked the descent, handily winning the stage and taking the lead, ultimately winning the Giro.
Froome has targeted his peak fitness for the 3rd week of the tour, and there are three mountain stages left. Froome will likely attack on any of those mountain stages. In the past, most GC riders would attack on stages with an uphill finish, e.g. Stage 17. But again, Froome attacks both climbs and descents, so any of those mountain stages are fair game.
Then there's the final individual time trial. Time trials are one of Froome's strengths. He has a bronze medal from the London Olympics.
If Geraint Thomas manages to stay in the top 3 heading into Paris, it'll be a first. Historically he has always cracked, and he's not alone. Year after year, at every grand tour, people always forget how difficult it is to hold form through a 3 week race. And that is why Team Sky still has Froome as their designated leader and cannot bet on Thomas until he proves himself.
I suppose you have to look at.... he’s done it all, won it all, several times. The reason being... he’s pretty exceptional. Thomas while looking good so far, has some previous of fading.
At the end of the day, it’s an absolute marathon, and I’m sure froome has a good few efforts left in him yet.
Certainly pretty exciting though, for a change!
07-21-18, 07:39 AM
#6
Heretic
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 2,246
Bikes: Specialized Sirrus, Giant OCR3, Giant CRS3
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2827 Post(s)
Liked 561 Times
in
429 Posts
But that was 2016 and the end of the 2nd week not the end of the 3rd.
07-21-18, 07:39 AM
#7
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 948
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 377 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 14 Times
in
10 Posts
Thomas won last year's opening ITT. He came in 12 seconds faster than Froome and it was about half the distance that this year's ITT is. Last year's was flat and this year's is (I believe) hilly. That would normally favor Froome but against Thomas maybe not. Of course Thomas has to get there in good shape GC wise and who knows if that will happen. Froome certainly will get there in good shape GC wise, presumably.
07-21-18, 08:01 AM
#8
Heretic
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 2,246
Bikes: Specialized Sirrus, Giant OCR3, Giant CRS3
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2827 Post(s)
Liked 561 Times
in
429 Posts
Thomas won last year's opening ITT. He came in 12 seconds faster than Froome and it was about half the distance that this year's ITT is. Last year's was flat and this year's is (I believe) hilly. That would normally favor Froome but against Thomas maybe not. Of course Thomas has to get there in good shape GC wise and who knows if that will happen. Froome certainly will get there in good shape GC wise, presumably.
07-21-18, 10:12 AM
#10
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 89
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 28 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
This years ITT is a little different than many in the past. The profile shows that it is rather hilly with one short but fairly steep climb near the end. Three more serious mountain stages remaining. It just may come down to whichever of the 3 top riders can finish without a bad day. I think that is a tall order for all of them, considering how difficult the event has been. Stage 17 is very short (65 km) and I don't believe that gives Froome an advantage over his 2 rivals even though it will likely be very fast from start to finish. He may have an advantage in the longer mountain stages if all 3 are on good days. As for the ITT, Froome may have a slight advantage, but lets not forget that both his rivals are excellent time trailers as well. I believe Froome should still be considered the favorite at the minute. He has more experience in this situation, but I honestly believe the other 2 can still win also. The final week should be really exciting and even tomorrow's stage is another hilly one. One thing is for sure, given the difficulty of this years race, whomever wins will have certainly earned it.
07-21-18, 11:23 AM
#11
Junior Member
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 21
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 7 Post(s)
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
The situation as I see it is that Sky are just where they want to be; they have the Yellow jersey, but not on CF, as a good chunk of the public don't like him - there's been a lot of booing and more. GT is a domestique who is paid (probably very well) to do whatever Sky tell him to do, which is primarily to support CF by forcing the main contenders for Yellow to waste energy by chasing him, while CF does as little as possible. As per the Giro, the Sky plan is to get CF into Yellow as late as possible; the prize goes to the person in yellow on the last day (or the day before), not at the end of week one ,or week two...
07-21-18, 02:06 PM
#12
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Oahu, HI
Posts: 1,396
Bikes: 89 Paramount OS 84 Fuji Touring Series III New! 2013 Focus Izalco Ergoride
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 285 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 74 Times
in
54 Posts
Froome will have a "miracle ride" on stage 17.
scott s.
.
scott s.
.
07-24-18, 02:11 PM
#13
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 15,489
Bikes: 2015 Workswell 066, 2017 Workswell 093, 2014 Dawes Sheila, 1983 Cannondale 500, 1984 Raleigh Olympian, 2007 Cannondale Rize 4, 2017 Fuji Sportif 1 LE
Mentioned: 144 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 7652 Post(s)
Liked 3,473 Times
in
1,834 Posts
07-24-18, 02:17 PM
#14
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 15,489
Bikes: 2015 Workswell 066, 2017 Workswell 093, 2014 Dawes Sheila, 1983 Cannondale 500, 1984 Raleigh Olympian, 2007 Cannondale Rize 4, 2017 Fuji Sportif 1 LE
Mentioned: 144 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 7652 Post(s)
Liked 3,473 Times
in
1,834 Posts
Seriously .... Froome knows he might have a "day without,' but that more likely Thomas will have a worse one ... And froome hasn't looked as good as Dumoulin, but he hasn't had any reason to.
No need to beat Anybody unless it is easy. Froome can gain time on a descent, which takes less energy. Why kill himself gaining seven seconds on a climb? Froome can wait to see how his opponents are riding. Froome can see how Thomas handles the pressure. And as I mentioned in some other thread ... Froome can eat and sleep while Thomas is answering endless questions from every local paper in Europe and half of Asia, meets every local dignitary and their families, and wishes he could just go back to his hotel and relax.
Also .... if Sky has more faith in Froome, they might tell Thomas to pull back. As I recall, one of Wiggins' Tor wins, Froome could have beat him on one of the last two stages and could have won the jersey and maybe the Tour, but he was ordered top ride with, not away from Wiggins.
it is all up in the air right now.
No need to beat Anybody unless it is easy. Froome can gain time on a descent, which takes less energy. Why kill himself gaining seven seconds on a climb? Froome can wait to see how his opponents are riding. Froome can see how Thomas handles the pressure. And as I mentioned in some other thread ... Froome can eat and sleep while Thomas is answering endless questions from every local paper in Europe and half of Asia, meets every local dignitary and their families, and wishes he could just go back to his hotel and relax.
Also .... if Sky has more faith in Froome, they might tell Thomas to pull back. As I recall, one of Wiggins' Tor wins, Froome could have beat him on one of the last two stages and could have won the jersey and maybe the Tour, but he was ordered top ride with, not away from Wiggins.
it is all up in the air right now.
07-24-18, 03:30 PM
#15
Newbie
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 4
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
So if someone said you’ll win £1000 if you name the winner.... who would you go for?
is it a straight fight between Froome and G?
or can TD do it?
is it a straight fight between Froome and G?
or can TD do it?
07-24-18, 09:01 PM
#16
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 5,752
Bikes: 2022 Salsa Beargrease Carbon Deore 11, 2020 Salsa Warbird GRX 600, 2020 Canyon Ultimate CF SLX disc 9.0 Di2, 2020 Catrike Eola, 2016 Masi cxgr, 2011, Felt F3 Ltd, 2010 Trek 2.1, 2009 KHS Flite 220
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4389 Post(s)
Liked 3,016 Times
in
1,865 Posts
Thomas won last year's opening ITT. He came in 12 seconds faster than Froome and it was about half the distance that this year's ITT is. Last year's was flat and this year's is (I believe) hilly. That would normally favor Froome but against Thomas maybe not. Of course Thomas has to get there in good shape GC wise and who knows if that will happen. Froome certainly will get there in good shape GC wise, presumably.
07-24-18, 11:25 PM
#17
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: South Carolina Upstate
Posts: 2,109
Bikes: 2010 Fuji Absolute 3.0 1994 Trek 850
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 762 Post(s)
Liked 555 Times
in
322 Posts
I think that they (Froome and Thomas) will both ride to win on stage 17. Look for Sky to set a fast pace and dump their 2 guys up front near the end. At that point, we will see these 2 ride against each other in ernest. As long as Sky takes the top 2 spots I don't see them asking either rider to let up
at least that is my prediction
at least that is my prediction
07-25-18, 06:39 AM
#18
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 15,489
Bikes: 2015 Workswell 066, 2017 Workswell 093, 2014 Dawes Sheila, 1983 Cannondale 500, 1984 Raleigh Olympian, 2007 Cannondale Rize 4, 2017 Fuji Sportif 1 LE
Mentioned: 144 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 7652 Post(s)
Liked 3,473 Times
in
1,834 Posts
Yeah ... all this might look very different in about four hours ......
07-25-18, 12:49 PM
#20
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 15,489
Bikes: 2015 Workswell 066, 2017 Workswell 093, 2014 Dawes Sheila, 1983 Cannondale 500, 1984 Raleigh Olympian, 2007 Cannondale Rize 4, 2017 Fuji Sportif 1 LE
Mentioned: 144 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 7652 Post(s)
Liked 3,473 Times
in
1,834 Posts
It's over barring crashes, natural disasters, or alien abductions.
07-25-18, 01:45 PM
#22
Senior Member
Yes, Thomas came in 3rd and made sure Tom Dumoulin didn't get the 3rd place time bonus (4 seconds I believe).
But there is 1 more difficult day in the mountains, so Dumoulin and Froome may change places again, then the time trial...
It would seem the yellow jersey has been decided, but 2nd and 3rd maybe not just yet
But there is 1 more difficult day in the mountains, so Dumoulin and Froome may change places again, then the time trial...
It would seem the yellow jersey has been decided, but 2nd and 3rd maybe not just yet
07-25-18, 02:00 PM
#24
Senior Member
07-25-18, 02:10 PM
#25
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 15,489
Bikes: 2015 Workswell 066, 2017 Workswell 093, 2014 Dawes Sheila, 1983 Cannondale 500, 1984 Raleigh Olympian, 2007 Cannondale Rize 4, 2017 Fuji Sportif 1 LE
Mentioned: 144 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 7652 Post(s)
Liked 3,473 Times
in
1,834 Posts
A couple pointless 4s, a Cat 1, and two HCs .... but even with his killer descending, Froome would have to have a 200 percent salbutamol kind of day, and Thomas and Dumoulin would both need to explode before the final climb, so Froome could make up minutes on the last climb and the descent.
Froome is 2:31 down, and Dumoulin 1:59. All three are good time trialers ... and Dumoulin is as good or better than Froome. So Froome needs to pretty much take yellow in Stage 19 ... and he needs 2:30 to do that.
If both his rivals blow up on the first HC climb, Froome has a chance. However, Froome hasn't looked strong in quite a while.
I think the Vuelta, the Giro, and now the Tour one after the other ... might be a little more than his spindly little legs can handle.
Stage 19 will still be enthralling .... even if Froome cracks early, because if Dumoulin can get some decent time back from Thomas, I think he can gain who knows what, 30 seconds? in the TT.
Froome is 2:31 down, and Dumoulin 1:59. All three are good time trialers ... and Dumoulin is as good or better than Froome. So Froome needs to pretty much take yellow in Stage 19 ... and he needs 2:30 to do that.
If both his rivals blow up on the first HC climb, Froome has a chance. However, Froome hasn't looked strong in quite a while.
I think the Vuelta, the Giro, and now the Tour one after the other ... might be a little more than his spindly little legs can handle.
Stage 19 will still be enthralling .... even if Froome cracks early, because if Dumoulin can get some decent time back from Thomas, I think he can gain who knows what, 30 seconds? in the TT.