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Toward herd immunity

Old 05-22-20, 10:51 PM
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Seattle Forrest
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Toward herd immunity

Some 36% of respondents said they would be less willing to take a vaccine if U.S. President Donald Trump said it was safe, compared with only 14% who would be more interested.

College-educated white women - a politically important demographic ... were particularly concerned about how quickly the vaccine is being developed. More than 40% said Trumpís reassurance would make them less willing to take it.

Exclusive: A quarter of Americans are hesitant about a coronavirus vaccine - Reuters/Ipsos poll


Well that's not going to help us toward the 70+% we need.
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Old 05-22-20, 10:56 PM
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Anything Trump advocates makes me suspicious, and I am 100% pro-vaccine. (Assuming it is safe.)

That is a really weird poll question.
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Old 05-23-20, 06:37 AM
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I'm encouraged that nobody is predicting a vaccine prior to early November. If that's the case we may have actual scientists determine the timeline.
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Old 05-23-20, 08:53 AM
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Perhaps it won't matter if some groups refuse to take the vaccine.

The most important thing will be to get nursing homes, nursing home staff, elderly living at home, diabetics, morbidly obese, doctors, nurses, etc all vaccinated.

SMOKERS?

What we don't know, and perhaps by this fall we'll have some better idea of is what kind of long-term syndromes this disease will leave behind in it's legacy. Will we get some of the same after-effects of the 1918 flu?

I.E. People may be concerned about the vaccine push when they really should be concerned about surviving with the disease (or not surviving).

As far as Trump's recommendation, that is a red herring. The demographic most concerned about Trump's recommendation is the same demographic that will be hopping on their computers and downloading the independent reviews, and perhaps even digging up some primary research.
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Old 05-23-20, 09:02 AM
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Massive vaccine development effort in the works in the US.

The United States plans a massive testing effort involving more than 100,000 volunteers and a half dozen or so of the most promising vaccine candidates in an effort to deliver a safe and effective one by the end of 2020, scientists leading the program told Reuters.
Reuters
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Old 05-23-20, 09:02 AM
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Covid-19 appears to attack placenta during pregnancy, study says



Fortunately, the study babies all seemed to be healthy. But, we're really about 6 months into this globally and a few months into the main spike in cases.

An analysis really needs to be done about women who got the disease in each month of their pregnancies which means at least a year out.

And following the COVID babies until they are at least 6 years old.

I.E. we are really early in this whole game to start second guessing a vaccine that is still under development.
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Old 05-25-20, 07:28 AM
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I read that in the world of vaccines, often the first one distributed isn't the best one & is replaced with subsequent better ones
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Old 05-25-20, 07:36 AM
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back to the OP's survey, just heard the moron in charge is promoting distributing a vaccine before it's proven to work & possibly safe? birx, his new mouth peice, is just a dumb puppet at this point
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Old 05-25-20, 08:06 AM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
the idiot's recommendation(s)
everyone w/ half a brain ignores him now
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Old 05-25-20, 08:24 AM
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Originally Posted by rumrunn6 View Post
back to the OP's survey, just heard the moron in charge is promoting distributing a vaccine before it's proven to work & possibly safe? birx, his new mouth peice, is just a dumb puppet at this point
Are there any details? I did a quick google search and didnt come up with any thing.
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Old 05-26-20, 02:34 AM
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And now some experts in Sweden are admitting Sweden's laissez-faire approach to the pandemic and hopes of a mythical "herd immunity" is a failure.

I've already muted one acquaintance on Facebook who's been desperately promoting the Swedish approach for two months. He used to be pretty open minded but has become almost irrational this year, posting increasingly unreliable sources as "evidence" to support his belief that Sweden got it right, despite the contradictory data and absence of any evidence that "herd immunity" will or can happen. I finally pressured him to just admit that his definition of "herd immunity" was euthanasia through negligence -- just let the old and vulnerable people die. Problem solved. Fewer parasites on the social services system. Turns out that's basically the wet dream all my libertarian friends had all along.

Well, former friends.
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Old 05-26-20, 05:56 AM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
former friends
eliminated a surprising & disappointing # of them since 2016
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Old 05-26-20, 06:41 AM
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Originally Posted by rumrunn6 View Post
everyone w/ half a brain ignores him now
Think of how stupid the average person is , and realise half of them are stupider than that
- George Carlin
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Old 05-26-20, 08:04 AM
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Generally speaking, I'm 100% pro-vaccination. For myself. And I certainly support the desire in others. Assuming it's well-developed, proven safe and effective, etc. (With all the standard caveats and risk of occasional reactions and bad results. History has shown we're vastly better off, as a group, with effective vaccines out there as compared to not.)

Doesn't surprise me that the involvement of the current Administration in a thing slants people's thinking on the thing, to the degree many would go against what would be their better, rational judgement otherwise. But that's the culture we live in, currently. They're welcome to do what they choose, for themselves based on that or any other factor they consider.
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Old 05-26-20, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
- George Carlin
wonder what jokes he would write about the missouri pool party
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Old 05-26-20, 10:32 AM
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I miss George Carlin. In his last years especially, he become a truth-teller.
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Old 05-26-20, 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
And now some experts in Sweden are admitting Sweden's laissez-faire approach to the pandemic and hopes of a mythical "herd immunity" is a failure.

I've already muted one acquaintance on Facebook who's been desperately promoting the Swedish approach for two months. He used to be pretty open minded but has become almost irrational this year, posting increasingly unreliable sources as "evidence" to support his belief that Sweden got it right, despite the contradictory data and absence of any evidence that "herd immunity" will or can happen. I finally pressured him to just admit that his definition of "herd immunity" was euthanasia through negligence -- just let the old and vulnerable people die. Problem solved. Fewer parasites on the social services system. Turns out that's basically the wet dream all my libertarian friends had all along.

Well, former friends.
FWIW, I believe "herd immunity" refers to the immunity in the population, whether derived from people who become infected and develop natural antibodies, or by vaccine.
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Old 05-26-20, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
Some 36% of respondents said they would be less willing to take a vaccine if U.S. President Donald Trump said it was safe, compared with only 14% who would be more interested.

College-educated white women - a politically important demographic ... were particularly concerned about how quickly the vaccine is being developed. More than 40% said Trumpís reassurance would make them less willing to take it.

Exclusive: A quarter of Americans are hesitant about a coronavirus vaccine - Reuters/Ipsos poll


Well that's not going to help us toward the 70+% we need.
Proving the flock has been well indoctrinated to being told what to think...

And as has been mentioned, herd immunity refers to the generalized population (70% iirc) being immune due to having been exposed in some way. Either naturally or immunized.
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Old 05-26-20, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
FWIW, I believe "herd immunity" refers to the immunity in the population, whether derived from people who become infected and develop natural antibodies, or by vaccine.
Yeah. And my friends are smart enough to know this. But they dance around the fact that, as of now, there is little evidence of natural antibodies developing in people exposed to this coronavirus, a vaccine may be years away, the development process is being rushed at the risk to the young, strong volunteers (read this week's story about a college student volunteer who suffered a pretty bad reaction), and their concept of "herd immunity" is not the medical definition.

They just don't want to come right out and say that they believe the economy is more important than the lives of more than 100,000 estimated US deaths so far, and upward of a quarter million by the time this settles.

Granted, that's always been the situation before in every previous pandemic, even when authorities understood the potential risk. But that cost has never been waved in our faces so blatantly before.

Nobody wants to come right out and say to older, disabled and vulnerable people the same thing we already knew when we enlisted in the military as young adults: You may not survive. But your country blahblahblah.

Fine. I knew that. I knew the risks when I volunteered for the military. I'd do it again. But let's not pretend we're going to recognize hundreds of thousands of dead grandparents, parents, aunts and uncles, neighbors with COPD and diabetes, as heroes. There won't be any memorials in major cities to their sacrifice. Their survivors won't receive benefits. They're merely considered expendables, parasites on the economy (in the fever dream fantasies of Randian libertarians).

It's a harsh reality but I prefer it to the lies.
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Old 05-26-20, 02:38 PM
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Originally Posted by rumrunn6 View Post
eliminated a surprising & disappointing # of them since 2016
I was able to get along with most folks who held very different belief systems and views from mine for almost 20 years, between our long acquaintanceships on hobbyist forums and Facebook. But events since 2016 have polarized us irreconcilably. There are limits to everything and some folks exceeded mine too often.

And it's not that I'm partisan in politics. I distrust all of them. I don't hold "My way or the highway" views on most issues. I'm primarily a humane pragmatist in most issues.
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Old 05-26-20, 02:45 PM
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
Yeah. And my friends are smart enough to know this. But they dance around the fact that, as of now, there is little evidence of natural antibodies developing in people exposed to this coronavirus, a vaccine may be years away, the development process is being rushed at the risk to the young, strong volunteers (read this week's story about a college student volunteer who suffered a pretty bad reaction), and their concept of "herd immunity" is not the medical definition.

They just don't want to come right out and say that they believe the economy is more important than the lives of more than 100,000 estimated US deaths so far, and upward of a quarter million by the time this settles.

Granted, that's always been the situation before in every previous pandemic, even when authorities understood the potential risk. But that cost has never been waved in our faces so blatantly before.

Nobody wants to come right out and say to older, disabled and vulnerable people the same thing we already knew when we enlisted in the military as young adults: You may not survive. But your country blahblahblah.

Fine. I knew that. I knew the risks when I volunteered for the military. I'd do it again. But let's not pretend we're going to recognize hundreds of thousands of dead grandparents, parents, aunts and uncles, neighbors with COPD and diabetes, as heroes. There won't be any memorials in major cities to their sacrifice. Their survivors won't receive benefits. They're merely considered expendables, parasites on the economy (in the fever dream fantasies of Randian libertarians).

It's a harsh reality but I prefer it to the lies.
I'm guessing you are a glass is half empty kind of person. lol

I'm not sure why you keep saying there is little evidence that people who recover have immunity. There is definitely evidence that they do ... I can provide links if you like. The only question is how durable the immunity will be ... whether it lasts months or years. Most of what I read is that they expect it to last a year at least, but as you say, that is still TBD, as is the efficacy of a vaccine.

I also don't understand why you think the volunteers are innocent sheep being led to the slaughter. They are doing their own risk assessment and making decisions from there. So long as the known risks are properly disclosed, who are you or I to say they should not participate? If it turns out that a vaccine is less effective than is hoped (or that fewer people are willing to have it), it could be that the natural herd immunity (along with the vaccine) will be enough to put us over the threshold to to control the pandemic. It's a false dilemma to suggest that the solution can only be one or the other. No one knows at this point.
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Old 05-26-20, 03:54 PM
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The sad thing is that you don't need to go to herd immunity if you have very strong air-tight public health measures. Quarantines, massive testing, and contact tracing could do it instead, if we were up to it. But we're not.
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Old 05-26-20, 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by MinnMan View Post
The sad thing is that you don't need to go to herd immunity if you have very strong air-tight public health measures. Quarantines, massive testing, and contact tracing could do it instead, if we were up to it. But we're not.
And with enough testing and contact tracing, quarantiines need happen less often. A modicum of social awareness will also help a lot. With the resources of this country those first two should be a no-brainer. The latter, social awareness, is kind of an unknown concept in thie coultry so I won't hold my breath there.
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Old 05-26-20, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
Generally speaking, I'm 100% pro-vaccination. For myself. And I certainly support the desire in others. Assuming it's well-developed, proven safe and effective, etc. (With all the standard caveats and risk of occasional reactions and bad results. History has shown we're vastly better off, as a group, with effective vaccines out there as compared to not.)

Doesn't surprise me that the involvement of the current Administration in a thing slants people's thinking on the thing, to the degree many would go against what would be their better, rational judgement otherwise. But that's the culture we live in, currently. They're welcome to do what they choose, for themselves based on that or any other factor they consider.
The anti-vaxx movement is stupid, harmful, and dangerous. I mean with vaccines that have been used to inoculate hundreds of millions of people, some of them in use for decades. They've demonstrated their safety and effectiveness beyond any shadow of a doubt. I don't think it's anti-vaxx or going against better judgement to be hesitant with this one. There are hopes that we'll have something by the fall. That's so incredibly rushed - for obvious and necessary reasons - it's reasonable to wonder if it's really safe, if any important corners were cut, if there are long term side effects that haven't showed up in the testing that's been done.

Mind you, I would volunteer to be a test subject. Not just for the good of everybody, also because I think the scientists generally know what they're doing and it would get me vaccinated sooner. Even with legitimate questions about the vaccine, I think it's better than taking my chances with the virus. (Not just catching it, but unwittingly spreading it too.)

It's extremely unfortunate for all of us that the president could convince large numbers of people not to get vaccinated, because we need this herd immunity, and it's much better to get it in a safe and controlled way.
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Old 05-26-20, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by MinnMan View Post
The sad thing is that you don't need to go to herd immunity if you have very strong air-tight public health measures. Quarantines, massive testing, and contact tracing could do it instead, if we were up to it. But we're not.
We eradicated smallpox, and we can't even get everyone on the same page that SARS2 is a real thing.
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