Roody

San Francisco is often listed as second after NYC. Large sections of all three cities are pretty low density, however--perfect for bikes while denser areas are great for walking.

cooker

Dave Cutter and I discussing whether schools are on the verge of going virtual.

https://www.bikeforums.net/living-car...l#post17954211

Dave Cutter

Five years.... fly by so very quickly. Yet changes happen... seemingly overnight. I think many changes have already happened.. and people just aren't aware of them.

Schools in many parts of America have already over-stuffed their staff. Even my nephew now has a "non-teaching, teaching position" with a large city school. This is an old government employee trick done in preparation for staffing cuts. Add a 150 people (you don't need) to the staff.... so when cuts come you can cut 100 and act like you won't be able to function.

Public schools are already completely on-line. Programs like ECOT, and in Ohio (where I live) the Ohio k12 on line schools (for home schooling). It is really just a line-item funding issue.

cooker

Or, maybe sooner
https://www.bikeforums.net/politics-r...car-sells.html

cooker

Me predicting that in five years doctors will be recommending cooling vests to heat intolerant patients to wear when going out shopping, etc.

rossiny

Never thought of it that way...but considering how much in debt america is maybe we did blow our fortune in cars...both as a country and individually. Amaing how many people drive those big four door pick up trucks that dont need them for work nor are they designed as a work truck. My prediction is that only when we are forced to change will we change. In the mean time cars and oil drive the economy and our jobs and it will continue to go that way. When some huge catAlyst occurs then and only then will any shift pertaining to a differdnt mode of transit....

B. Carfree

It may take a bit longer, but the Middle East is heading that way a lot faster than was previously predicted.

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/sc...e-century.html

B. Carfree

When I go to the local dump (actually a transfer station) with my recycling and rubbish on a large bike trailer (sometimes two if my spouse can come with me), I get a chuckle out of the super-large four-door pick-ups that have empty beds and put their small loads into a trailer. It's as though they can't abide the thought of putting something in the bed of the truck for fear it would damage it. (I usually haul more material on my bike than 90% of the motorists who go there, which also gives me a dark chuckle.)

I-Like-To-Bike

I must have missed it in the cited article. Where is there any mention of "cooling vests" at all, let alone as a recommended or practical countermeasure to intolerable heat?

Roody

Good point. If we don't act now, the reality of climate change will make a mockery of all our other predictions. The world is having enormous difficulties dealing with a few hundred thousand refugees right now. How will we possibly cope with millions of refugees from climate change, rising sea levels, and the resulting political chaos?

My five year prediction---mankind will be well on the way toward ending emissions of climate change gases...or else I will be happy that I'm an old man near to the natural end of my life.

Walter S

Going out on a limb there. You predict that people will change or they won't. What odds do ya figure?

Roody

Huh? I predict that people will either change or not. If they don't, they'll soon wish that they had.

Predicting the physical consequences of continued emission of GHGs is pretty straightforward--There is more than 95% certainty about the outcome of higher CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Predictions of human behavior in response to GHGs are much less certain.

tandempower

Read/watched the Hunger Games yet?

Roody

No, I watched the news.

tandempower

That's also practically all I read, besides forum posts, and I hardly watch TV and movies except for interesting stuff on youtube, which is probably why this Hunger Games series has me intrigued. If you can stomach dystopian future-fiction, it's really a fascinating prognosis for how order could be maintained in a post-sea-level-rise-apocolyptic future. The books are better than the movies, but the movies are pretty accurate despite the inability to capture the level of detail that the author puts into all the minute aspects of survival and power-tactics that go on in a future where the consumption-gap is nearly absolute between the capitol district and the subservient districts of the post-US/NAFTA empire called Panem. Anyway, I'm sorry to sound like a marketing agent for the films/books. I promise I make no money from the producers of the books/films (though maybe the fact that I'm plugging them independently will get a fat check sent to me )

Anyway, here's a link to a short article showing the projected coastline of the future N America and I highly recommend the books/movies for a horribly realistic vision of how order could be maintained by the military-media complex in the future despite huge consumption-differences between rich and poor and intense poverty/scarcity among the masses.

Bustle

Btw, sometimes, fiction can do a better job of reaching popular consciousness about the potential consequences of newsworthy phenomena than any journalism, social science, religious leaders, politicians, etc.

cooker

let's stick to 5 year predictions

Bandera

We actually pay highly trained specialists with access to masses of data and powerful analytic tools to look at complex transportation networks and make predictions.
Oddly enough these predictions are available with Public Access online.

A bit beyond the 5yr horizon here's some topics in "Beyond Traffic 2045":

Trends
How We Move
How We Move Things
How We Move Better
How We Adapt
How We Align Decisions and Dollars
System Implications
Highways and Motor Vehicles
Transit
Pedestrians and Bicycles
Aviation
Intercity Rail
Marine
Pipelines
Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times

https://www.transportation.gov/sites..._Framework.pdf

Despite the usual LCF line it's possible that no one is asleep at the switch in long/short term integrated transportation planning and a sudden Dystopia will not overwhelm civilization.

-Bandera

cooker

Toronto condo developer offering free electric car to buyers | Metro News
One example of a developer willing to provide facilities for electric vehicles.

I-Like-To-Bike

Correct, sorta. One developer is willing to sell parking spots that have an electric outlet - "parking spots at Bside – located at Front and Bathurst – can cost anywhere from $25,000 to $50,000." BFD!

cooker

This is just a preliminary progress report. Four and a half years to go.

tandempower

Automotive sprawl growth isn't a sudden dystopia but a gradual one; one which has already overwhelmed civilization to the point that most people simply don't feel there's any hope of doing anything about it.

cooker

Let's stick to the 5 year predictions.

cooker

Me predicting that within 5 years some cities will adapt zoning and building codes to allow microapartments (similar to airport pod hotels) so workers who live far away can stay overnight.

cooker

https://www.bikeforums.net/living-car...l#post18348745

Roody speculating that financial institutions might try to market loans specifically to car-free people, given that they may have the discretionary income to pay them back, since they don't pay car costs.

I'll predict some modification - that maybe they will market a special credit card or special mortgages for non-car-owners. After all, if they can't enslave us into financial serfdom with car loans, they need to find another way :

I-Like-To-Bike

I am not aware of any credit card company that requires the card holder to own a motor vehicle; are you?

Why would anyone need or offer a "special" credit card for non-car owners? And special mortgages for non car owners? What will make the mortgages "special"? Mortgages on what that is not already available to every non car owner?

Are you thinking of an affinity credit card that gets a pretty logo on the piece of plastic with no other benefit?