Living car free, 5 year predictions
05-06-15, 03:41 PM
#26
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In Germany, elderly bike messengers will deliver your local veggies | Grist
05-06-15, 04:46 PM
#27
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Hype is free. Money, energy, and rare metals to build, maintain, and run gadgets are harder to get. China, Russia, and India could have some gadgets for a while. The USA blew its fortune on cars.
05-06-15, 06:57 PM
#28
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05-06-15, 08:39 PM
#29
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Cooker - just set yourself a reminder in Outlook or Google calendar or whatever to check this thread once a year. There was another zombie thread where one BF member did that for a number of years running. Though I think this thread would be much more interesting to revisit!
05-06-15, 11:47 PM
#30
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I predict that only a tiny fraction of car drivers will begin to use bicycles for transportation. If there is a fuel crisis or some other reason for fuel to become more scarce, such as extremely high prices, the percentage change might be a little higher. The citizens here would rather go to war to get cheaper fuel than to begin riding bicycles.
More people will be fatter than now.
The federal government will do more to appease the car drivers in some way if there is a fuel availability problem.
Electric cars will be a higher percentage of vehicles on the road. Once Tesla and others add more inexpensive electric vehicles the field will expand and there will still be more cars on the road than today.
Auto insurance for aluminum vehicles will be sky high and shift people away from wanting to buy them. It is more costly to repair an aluminum vehicle than a steel one. The Ford F 150 will in time lose sales because of this fact.
More people will be fatter than now.
The federal government will do more to appease the car drivers in some way if there is a fuel availability problem.
Electric cars will be a higher percentage of vehicles on the road. Once Tesla and others add more inexpensive electric vehicles the field will expand and there will still be more cars on the road than today.
Auto insurance for aluminum vehicles will be sky high and shift people away from wanting to buy them. It is more costly to repair an aluminum vehicle than a steel one. The Ford F 150 will in time lose sales because of this fact.
I also doubt if we'll have any functioning high-speed inter-city rail (Acela doesn't qualify), but it will be on the drawing board and the first trains might just be in production in ten years.
On a brighter note, I'll pass 600,000 miles in the saddle within the next five years whether or not anyone else chooses to join the fun. Who knows, I may finally even buy a new bike (but I doubt it).
05-07-15, 04:27 AM
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05-07-15, 04:41 AM
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Even further afield than 'locally'.
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05-07-15, 04:42 AM
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Why?
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05-07-15, 07:52 AM
#34
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Tesla hasn't been doing well, especially when it comes to deliveries of electric cars. First quarter figures were just released this week. They are better than expected, so maybe Tesla will see an upturn now.
Originally Posted by investors.com
Electric-car maker Tesla Motors reported a smaller-than-expected loss late Wednesday and touted "crazy" demand for its new home, business and utility-scale battery products. Non-GAAP revenue rose to $1.10 billion, up 55% from the year-earlier quarter and beating the consensus estimate of 1.04 billion. GAAP revenue was $940 million.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) lost 36 cents a share excluding various items. The consensus was for a 50-cent loss.
Tesla stock rose 2.5% to 236.25 in late trading. Shares had closed down 1.1% at 230.43.
Tesla made 11,160 vehicles in Q1, 10% better than guidance, as it averaged more than 1,000 cars per production week. In Q2, it expects to produce about 12,500 vehicles, a 12% sequential increase.
"We plan to deliver 10,000 to 11,000 vehicles in Q2, and we are still on track to deliver approximately 55,000 Model S and X cars in 2015," Tesla said in the earnings announcement signed by CEO Elon Musk.
Tesla said on April 3 that it delivered 10,030 vehicles in Q1.
Model S Prices Rising
The average Model S selling price increased slightly in Q1. Tesla said that it will raise prices in Europe by about 5% to offset the stronger dollar. The rise will apply to deliveries in Q3.
Tesla expects to launch and quickly ramp production of its Model X crossover SUV for deliveries in late Q3.
Tesla reported a surprise Q4 loss on Feb. 11 that sent the stock tumbling from 212.80 to a low of 181.40 on March 30. Since then, Tesla has moved up about 27%, just prior to its Q1 earnings report. But the stock is up just 3% this year.
Read More At Investor's Business Daily: Tesla Stock Rises On Smaller Q1 Loss, Output Outlook TSLA - Investors.com
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) lost 36 cents a share excluding various items. The consensus was for a 50-cent loss.
Tesla stock rose 2.5% to 236.25 in late trading. Shares had closed down 1.1% at 230.43.
Tesla made 11,160 vehicles in Q1, 10% better than guidance, as it averaged more than 1,000 cars per production week. In Q2, it expects to produce about 12,500 vehicles, a 12% sequential increase.
"We plan to deliver 10,000 to 11,000 vehicles in Q2, and we are still on track to deliver approximately 55,000 Model S and X cars in 2015," Tesla said in the earnings announcement signed by CEO Elon Musk.
Tesla said on April 3 that it delivered 10,030 vehicles in Q1.
Model S Prices Rising
The average Model S selling price increased slightly in Q1. Tesla said that it will raise prices in Europe by about 5% to offset the stronger dollar. The rise will apply to deliveries in Q3.
Tesla expects to launch and quickly ramp production of its Model X crossover SUV for deliveries in late Q3.
Tesla reported a surprise Q4 loss on Feb. 11 that sent the stock tumbling from 212.80 to a low of 181.40 on March 30. Since then, Tesla has moved up about 27%, just prior to its Q1 earnings report. But the stock is up just 3% this year.
Read More At Investor's Business Daily: Tesla Stock Rises On Smaller Q1 Loss, Output Outlook TSLA - Investors.com
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05-07-15, 07:54 AM
#35
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How does that compare with commuting by electric car? Do more people commute by electric car or by bicycle?
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05-07-15, 08:52 AM
#36
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Well, for one thing:
It's a guess, but I have a few reasons.
It's partly a one-man operation that is heavily dependent on Musk's vision, salesmanship and determination, so if he gets sick or dies or is arrested or whatever, it may grind to a halt.
The big car companies still have a lot of clout (look at how they are blocking his direct to customer sales) and will either undermine his efforts indirectly, or woo him with a rich personal buyout and then betray him by phasing out his operations in favour of whatever makes them the most money.
Also, I have seen other "visionary" car makers like Bricklin, DeLorean, and (before my time) Tucker, fall victim to their own overreach or the sabotaging effect of other interests, and I think Tesla is also vulnerable.
Or, I could be wrong!
It's a guess, but I have a few reasons.
It's partly a one-man operation that is heavily dependent on Musk's vision, salesmanship and determination, so if he gets sick or dies or is arrested or whatever, it may grind to a halt.
The big car companies still have a lot of clout (look at how they are blocking his direct to customer sales) and will either undermine his efforts indirectly, or woo him with a rich personal buyout and then betray him by phasing out his operations in favour of whatever makes them the most money.
Also, I have seen other "visionary" car makers like Bricklin, DeLorean, and (before my time) Tucker, fall victim to their own overreach or the sabotaging effect of other interests, and I think Tesla is also vulnerable.
Or, I could be wrong!
Last edited by cooker; 05-07-15 at 09:01 AM.
05-07-15, 09:04 AM
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I live near to some of the swankier suburbs in the country and am seeing more and more Teslas. I expect them to be around for quite a while. While I don't expect much change in a national transportation scene in the next 5 years, in that time frame I expect my personal transportation scene to change pretty radically as I'm saving the shekels for one of these:
Last edited by delcrossv; 08-10-15 at 02:52 PM.
05-07-15, 09:04 AM
#38
Prefers Cicero
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That got me thinking to where I might be in 5 years viz-a-viz living carfree.
* My entire family has turned largely to public transportation and cycling. We still have a car which we can't sell.
* I still work, but my annual hours work out to about 25 hours a week.
* I have improved my garden to the point that it provides about 50% of the vegetables I eat.
* I have replaced my gas furnace with a geothermal outfit.
What does your crystal ball say?
* My entire family has turned largely to public transportation and cycling. We still have a car which we can't sell.
* I still work, but my annual hours work out to about 25 hours a week.
* I have improved my garden to the point that it provides about 50% of the vegetables I eat.
* I have replaced my gas furnace with a geothermal outfit.
What does your crystal ball say?
Last edited by cooker; 05-07-15 at 09:08 AM.
05-07-15, 09:21 AM
#39
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I'm going out on a limb to predict that there will be a similar thread...in 2016. And Machka will revive this thread in 2016...and 2017...and 2018...and....
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05-07-15, 09:30 AM
#40
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But still, it's a major struggle for Musk to deliver even 55,000 cars to the market. That is very penny-ante. Henry Ford and Ransom Olds were doing much better at a similar stage in the development of gasoline cars, just over 100 years ago
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05-07-15, 06:19 PM
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I predict more and more people will be stuck on their phones and miss out on all the fun being out riding.
I'm proud to say I never owned a smartphone and I never will. No FB, Twitter or any of that stuff.
05-07-15, 06:43 PM
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I think we will soon see a proliferation of covered narrow-track vehicles. Motorcycle markets currently suffer from the lack of enclosure. Once enclosed narrow-track vehicles are available, they will grow popular. Once those are popular, it will be a shorter leap to electric bikes/trikes for many. Average vehicle size will get smaller because autonomous control of one's travel schedule beats adhering to a transit schedule and transit is gaining popularity, so the evolution of transit use will include some people getting smaller vehicles to avoid both transit and driving/parking larger vehicles.
As for Tesla, idk if it will fail as a company but I would expect to see an expansion of the battery business it is establishing by making the car batteries available for household and other applications. I can see coal-industry areas as recovering lost jobs by getting into battery manufacturing. This will reduce some of the jobs of maintaining the grid, but it will add a lot more servicing solar-charing stations and battery maintenance, distribution, and recycling.
05-07-15, 06:49 PM
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Well, for one thing:
It's a guess, but I have a few reasons.
It's partly a one-man operation that is heavily dependent on Musk's vision, salesmanship and determination, so if he gets sick or dies or is arrested or whatever, it may grind to a halt.
The big car companies still have a lot of clout (look at how they are blocking his direct to customer sales) and will either undermine his efforts indirectly, or woo him with a rich personal buyout and then betray him by phasing out his operations in favour of whatever makes them the most money.
Also, I have seen other "visionary" car makers like Bricklin, DeLorean, and (before my time) Tucker, fall victim to their own overreach or the sabotaging effect of other interests, and I think Tesla is also vulnerable.
Or, I could be wrong!
It's a guess, but I have a few reasons.
It's partly a one-man operation that is heavily dependent on Musk's vision, salesmanship and determination, so if he gets sick or dies or is arrested or whatever, it may grind to a halt.
The big car companies still have a lot of clout (look at how they are blocking his direct to customer sales) and will either undermine his efforts indirectly, or woo him with a rich personal buyout and then betray him by phasing out his operations in favour of whatever makes them the most money.
Also, I have seen other "visionary" car makers like Bricklin, DeLorean, and (before my time) Tucker, fall victim to their own overreach or the sabotaging effect of other interests, and I think Tesla is also vulnerable.
Or, I could be wrong!
Expect a barrage of electric cars with performance, comfort, and convenience at levels that protect the competitiveness of combustion vehicles. After all, do you really expect the automakers to allow their factories and other industrial institutions to become obsolete all at once?
Last edited by tandempower; 05-07-15 at 06:53 PM.
05-07-15, 09:34 PM
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Frankly, I don't see much difference between a coal-powered electric car and a gasoline-powered car. Sure, the coal-powered cars can be slightly less fuel inefficient, but not enough to write home about. They still take up way to much room, are operated dangerously and are big parts of the health crisis in America as well as big players in climate change. To me, it's kind of like the difference between gasoline-powered cars and diesel-powered cars; it's all at the edges.
05-08-15, 06:00 AM
#45
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I think gas prices is actually a good topic for five year predictions. It's one of the few short-term events that has a big impact on our society. I predict that gas prices on 5-8-2020 will be $5.05/gallon, or one-half of the minimum wage.
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05-08-15, 07:46 PM
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05-31-15, 09:11 AM
#50
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https://www.bikeforums.net/living-car...l#post17852728
Dave Cutter predicting that 20% of the cars produced this year will still be on the road in 2040. Hope he and I live to see it!
Dave Cutter predicting that 20% of the cars produced this year will still be on the road in 2040. Hope he and I live to see it!