cooker

Yes, as Roody said in the linked post - it would be a gimmick. What would be "special' about it, is that finance companies may come to recognize car-free people as an under-exploited market, since they don't have car loans, so they would look for other ways to hook those people into taking on debt and making monthly payments.

I-Like-To-Bike

What makes you think car free people are an under-exploited market for credit card companies? Ya think the people with allegedly $500-600 extra to spend only use cash/checks to purchase goods and services? Or do you think many/most/all car free people have to "hooked' by finance or credit card companies to desire products and services that are not paid for in cash?

cooker

I don't know for sure if car-free people have more or less overall debt than car owners, but I do assume on pretty solid grounds that they don't have car loans, which represent one of the largest debt pools. This is a speculative thread - time will tell how it pans out.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle24441790/

I-Like-To-Bike

I'm sure you don't know (and neither does anybody else on this list), and are only speculating about the overall financial wherewithal of car free folks, especially if considering all car free adult folks in U.S and Canada, not just selected slices of said population who post on Internet based hobbyist blogs.

cooker

This thread isn't to debate that - it's to make predictions and see how they turn out.

mconlonx

LCF, 5 year prediction:

Like former straight edge punks, gripping syringes, joints, short straws, glass pipes, and pint glasses with hands featuring "X" tattoos on the back of them, many who proclaim "LCF 4 Life, Yo!" will own a car or have owned a car in the ensuing years. My prediction, 4 out of every 5 participating in LCF today...

Mobile 155

I think after looking at where people want to go with things the future will be with EVs. Right now I see E-bikes making some great inroads into transportation as seen in China and other Asian countries along with Europe. If they continue to work on the charge rate and distance of these e-bikes they could make tremendous gains even in a very resistant US consumer base. For cooler temperature states they could produce E-trikes with some light body work and almost replace the need for cars in the urban areas.

I know China and Japan are working feverishly on EVs, both plug in as in China and Fuel cell in Japan, but that will take a lot longer to develope. They have already sold 200,000,000 E-bikes in China and production numbers are climbing. If they develope E-trikes as well I could see giving up the car for one, maybe.

B. Carfree

A retired physician, his wife (retired nurse) and her brother opened a bike shop that features only e-bikes in my city this past summer. None of them had any experience with bicycles, but the brother is an electrician/electronics whiz. I'm suddenly seeing a fair number of e-bikes around. As I ride on the main joy-ride hill just south of the city limits, I have noticed quite a few somewhat large folks who take longer to catch up to than I would have expected. It's great to see them out there enjoying their new ride and riding places that were previously not possible for them to venture on two wheels.

That's a long-winded way of saying that I think there might be a very large market for e-bikes in the US and I welcome there arrival.

cooker

I was also predicting a future for e-trikes earlier in the thread, but in a slightly different context than you - as a replacement for ordinary bikes as some of us bike commuters age, rather than replacing cars.

I-Like-To-Bike

E-bikes certainly are more practical that the publicly rejected Segway fiasco and I expect they will do a lot better in the market for people who are OK on two wheels and are not deterred by exposure to weather, but have little interest in bicycling with a conventional bicycle.

Mobile 155

I think the idea covers some key concerns some have about freedom of movement and personal independence. The time to transverse a city would be less than mass transit and a person could still have their spontaneity. Like I said the Chinese are eating these things up and the know a think or two about moving people. There is some resistance in some states to E-bikes but consumers can overcome that if they want.

cooker

A couple of posts about whether driverless cabs or future Uber vehicles etc. will be designed with separate enclosed compartments so several unrelated passengers can ride in relative isolation.

https://www.bikeforums.net/living-car...l#post17786135
https://www.bikeforums.net/living-car...l#post18383263

cooker

So then, are you agreeing with my prediction that we are going to see a lot more e-trikes over the next five years?

Machka 

Maybe you should add a prediction that more public transportation systems than just London will go to a bank card (and possible phone) payment system.

Although I suspect that it will be more than 5 years before that happens to any large extent.

Nevertheless, apparently they're thinking that could possibly start happening here in Australia in 2019. Who knows!

cooker

You have just added it. I actually think that is inevitable, so almost a no-brainer predicition. As the article I posted in your thread on transit payment methods indicated, cellphones in Canada can now have a special SIM card installed that also functions as a smart card for financial transactions. I suspect phone manufacturers or Telecom networks will soon make that standard issue.

Machka 

As someone who lives in Tokyo mentioned in the other thread, it is being used there.

How widespread it will be in a short time frame like 5 years will be the question.

I-Like-To-Bike

I have no reason to think trikes, no matter how powered, will ever command any larger slice of any cycle market. They might maintain their current insignificant presence on North American streets.

cooker

Yes there is a reason, at least I think there is.

Old people.

Roody

It exists! I have already been seeing commercials for this. It will catch on very quickly, provided that it works as promised. Probably more of a five month prediction, not five years.

tandempower

I would have said the same thing about motorcycle trikes a few years ago but I see a lot of those on the road these days.

Walter S

A trike is a child's bike and too fat for being a reasonable trail presence.

Roody

Did you ever ride one?

Walter S

When I was 3-4 years old, yes. Then I got older and graduated to bicycles. Actually I still have a scar on my face from a tricycle accident where I cornered too hard and capsized.

cooker

What about ATVs?

Walter S

You must be kidding.