squirtdad

A lot of focus on rideshare.....certainly urban focused... interesting read if nothing else

The case for bicycles' inevitable triumph over cars - May. 5, 2017

tyrion

That author doesn't know what he's talking about. Bikes have been around longer than cars, but the simple reality is that most people prefer riding in cars to riding bikes.

Bike shares aren't going to flip that equation.

CliffordK

I think there is an optimist somewhere.

Does the author live in Sunny California?

There are a number of reasons that bikes won't triumph.

• Exposure to the elements
• TIME
• Cargo Capacity
• Convenience.

Some things like bike shares and E-Bikes may help with some of this. But... isn't fitness one of the reasons for cycling, which E-Bikes at least reduce (fake fitness?)

I would hope cyclists passing bus stops would make an impression on the bus riders, but apparently they don't notice.

Milton Keynes

Bikes will never surpass cars because to most people, riding a bicycle is hard work. People in this country would rather turn to electric mobility scooters than ride a bike.

ItsJustMe

I much prefer riding a bike to a car. But even when work was only 10 miles from home, I still didn't ride every day. Now that work moved to 25 miles from home, I ride perhaps once a week. In the US, a hell of a lot of people work more than 5 miles from home, and most people aren't willing to ride that far even once.

That's completely leaving aside the fact that at least 90% of people in the US believes that riding a bicycle in the street (apart from quiet residential areas) is straight up suicidal and you couldn't pay them to do it. Most wouldn't even ride in a good bike lane on a busy street.

noisebeam

i see a convergence with self driving pods

CliffordK

I see a lot of people around here riding on the sidewalks next to the bike lanes.

Or, perhaps riding in the bike lanes across the street, against the flow of traffic... and they know they're going the wrong way whenever I have to pass them.

CliffordK

One still gets wet and one is exposed to the elements in the E-Bike. Plus, perhaps the perception of risk.

One thing that will have to happen would be governments actively supporting them. If the governments start taxing them and restricting their use, then they'll remain fringe.

The meter reader carts, Piaggio Ape, and similar vehicles have never gotten wide acceptance in the USA, and in some places are illegal. In other countries, those micro-vehicles are extremely popular. I would think the E-Bikes would fall in the same category.

I-Like-To-Bike

The article's content seemed more appropriate for The Onion.

I-Like-To-Bike

Maybe in Chicago and got confused.

unterhausen

Chicago, Philly, and NYC are pretty flat, and are really good candidates for cycling to take over. I live in a place where there is 3k of climbing just to get to work. I can get there without getting too sweaty, but for most people an ebike would be necessary to accomplish that. I have thought about getting one, it would be really nice to get to work without much work at all

Daniel4

There's only one reason why they think riding a bicycle on the street is suicidal: cars.

The question to those people would be is "Why is bad driving acceptable that one would rather discourage cycling than enforce good driving?"

jon c. 

I suspect that overall it will be a substantially similar market niche to that now filled with by underpowered scooters. Less expensive e-bikes may take a decent chunk out of their sales, but I don't imagine in most areas there will be a lot of converts outside of that. Weather and safety remain two big issues to most of the untapped market and the e-bike does nothing to address those.

scott967

This article is mainly pushing e-bikes. Here we have a large number of mopeds, which seem to me about equivalent in capability/utility. So mopeds would have taken over if they were obviously superior. The only difference I see is there is no "share" option for mopeds, so that might open up some new uses.

scott s.
.

KD5NRH

Far more practical in reducing traffic congestion would be staggering shifts effectively; look at the difference between traffic at 0530 and traffic at 0730. For places that don't need an 8-5 schedule, simply not having shifts that put people on the road from 0700-0800, 1100-1300 and 1700-1800 would spread things out enough to de-congest a lot of roads.
Now that I have a <1mi commute and a 0900-1800 schedule, it's amusing to see how much clearer the roads are at 0900 than at 0805 when all the habitually late people are trying to hit warp 4 on feeder streets.

Stadjer

I doesn't need to. As you said, people prefer riding in cars, not beeing stuck in cars. Cars are just too inefficient in terms of space to allow for cities to really bloom. The merit of a city over the countryside is it's density, particularly the densitiy of economic and social activity. Mass car use leads to congestion and longer travel distances slowing activity down. Cars and the countryside are a lovely combination, cars and the city are not, there's a fundamental conflict when you have a means of transport that excels in long distances but takes a lot of space in a place that excels in density and short distances, and has little space.

Juan Foote

Gleamingly optimistic and yet, conceivable within an urban environment.

Atlanta has seen the bike share program expand several times since it's roll out a year-ish or so ago. There is an event here in the next few days where the program is expanding to Buckhead. Was reading a traffic study about the bike lanes that were installed a few years ago. It saw a big burst and then sagged in usage until the bike share came out, and almost all the bike lanes have seen an explosion in usage. Of course, it's summertime....

It would be nice to see our infrastructure modified or rebuilt in such a way to allow for easier bike commuting, shopping, etc.

Cyclist0084

Bike The Drive is a tremendous event and I have participated in it quite a few times. Unfortunately, it only happens once a year. I wish LSD was like this every day, but alas, that will never happen.

f4rrest

Cars are a status symbol.
Bikes are not.

Cars are easy.
Bikes are not.

Cars are comfortable.
Bikes are not.

Good luck.

tyrion

Dense cities tend to develop public transportation if the government can afford it, enabling people that don't want to ride bikes to keep not riding bikes.

Ninety5rpm

I think self-driving cars provided by companies like Uber and Lyft will dominate, and probably with many customers utilizing the car pool option (to save significant money for a modest increase in trip length). That said, the cheap and high availability of that convenient transportation will probably cause many to sell their own cars leaving them with the option to bike or walk instead of hailing a car, so I think bike use will see a modest increase, but nothing like this article predicts.

berner

Today has been an awesomely gorgeous day with many roadies out, more than in the past. What I have also noticed in much greater numbers than usual is the increase in bikes in town by people just doing daily errands. This region has many small towns between Boston, Providence, New Haven and NYC. Most of these towns are excellent for getting about on a bike so I can see an even larger increase in bike use for other such similar regions but I do not see bikes "taking over". With increased bike use in many areas, I expect to see better infrastructure for bikes such as MUPs, popular with parents, joggers and walkers, so funding is easier to justify by politicos, and many more roads with good shoulders for cycling. While bikes will never dominate road use, conditions for roadies gradually get better year by year. We have to take the long view.

indyfabz

Philly is quite large and has a good amount of relief in numerous parts of the city. We even have single track mountain bike trails with good climbing. Where you see the most people using bikes for other than sport riding (e.g., transportation, commuting) is in center city and the surrounding neighborhoods, which are mostly flat.

I-Like-To-Bike

Isn't that true mostly everywhere that bikes are popular, though the the busiest area might not be called center city elsewhere but it will be mostly flat?

Daniel4

Bicycles represent self confidence.
Cars do not.

Bikes are easy.
Cars are high maintenance.

Bikes are comfortable.
Cars create rage.

Good luck.