Seattle Forrest

Fortune is smiling on me, and I'll be able to afford a carbon road bike in the next couple of weeks. It wasn't that difficult, actually; I just wrote a computer program to steal half a cent from every transaction my employer engages in ( they think it's a rounding error ), and then I talked that weird guy who's always mumbling about burning the place down, to actually do it, and cover my tracks.

I would assume demand should go down somewhat in the fall or winter, because there are fewer people wanting to ride bikes - especially here, where it rains instead of snowing. I'm also guessing the 2011 models are starting to come out, and that might put some pressure on bike shops to clear out their stock? On the other hand, it seems like that would apply less to high end carbon bikes - but maybe I'm wrong on this.

I'm looking at bikes from the Scott CR1 to the Cervelo RS ( which is more than I want to spend, but feels really nice ). Is there any reason for me to wait in hopes of prices falling? My guess is no, and it's probably a dumb question, but I'd be remiss not to ask.

PS - Have you seen my stapler?

mzeffex 

Rippin

I'll need to see your TPS report on my desk before the end of the day if you require an answer from me...didn't you get the memo?

NYJayhawk

The big carbon harvest is in the fall, so all of the roadside stands will have plenty of fresh carbon to go around at that time. In the spring, you're looking at frozen or canned carbon left over from the previous harvest. The only fresh carbon picked at that time is from South America.

As for buying a bike, in the spring you'll have the best selection, but there's no wiggle room on prices. In the fall, you MIGHT (not always) get more price flexibility when the 2011's come in, but you'll have limited choices (whatever is on the floor is all they've got). So you can "get lucky" in the fall if they have the model and size you want.

Just don't get a case of the Mondays. Nobody likes that.

mrbUSA

Anybody ever tell you, you got a case of the Monday's?

roadwarrior

I would not hold my breath. Most of the companies were sold out of new 2010 carbon bikes some time ago. Most did a poor to midland job of projecting sales. I'm at a really big shop. People were coming to us after hitting the smaller shops and when they heard the "carbon less" speech were nodding and saying, indeed, there was not much out there. Maybe small sizes, but 54-56-58 were pretty hard to impossible to find.
In a top 50 shop in the US we've got maybe 12 carbon bikes total in the store. Sold the rest already. Giant was sold out of 2010 carbon bikes in February and they are the largest bike company in the world.
Good luck.

2011 will be out soon. I am awaiting one, have been for over a month.

Velo Gator

/\ this. I bought one of the last 2010 Cervélo S2 models from (that Cervélo had). Otherwise I'd have been stuck waiting til 2011.

milliron

Yeah, I was going to buy a 2010 C'Dale SuperSix a few months ago but couldn't find one. Ended up buying a new group and stuff for my current bike.

Quel

That's what I've heard as well. Apparently high end road bikes are recession proof.

Issaquatch

Selection is limited, but prices do tend to drop toward the end of the year. Shops want to move out the prior year's models before the 2011 bikes get in. The last time I purchased a bike around here, Greggs (the Bellevue location) and Pacific Bicycles (Sammamish) were both offering discounts on high end bikes. I would suggest looking around now though and seeing whether anyone has in stock what you are interested in and then decide what the odds are that something will still be available in a few months.

I saved a lot of money on my Cannondale Supersix by being patient and buying it at the end of November.

jrobe

I bought both my Cervelo bikes (R3 and P2-SL) for a $200-250 off in late fall or early winter when they were then year old models. As I recall though, both times they didn't have too much left in stock but they happened to have my size.

I looked at my local bike shops inventory (it can be checked online) and they only have 3 RS's left in stock right now.

Sylv

^ This. You may get a closeout price in the late fall/winter on last year models, but the likelihood of finding a non-hobbit size bike will be slim. LBS won't start discounting carbon bikes until their TDF sales from what I've seen.

Seattle Forrest

I'm pretty surprised by the replies I've seen so far, about stock running out!

There's a "triathlon shop" a couple miles from my apartment that has a Cervelo RS in 58 cm, plus a Scott CR1 and a Felt team something in my size. Although this is a smaller place; I saw a bike at Performance that (in theory) looked great, but they only had one in a 54 cm. Now that I think of it, there have been a few steep discounts at Performance and a few other, larger bike shops. That's not the case at the tri shop, though, and they're the only one with the RS. They've also done excellent work whenever I've brought my CX bike in there, so at this point I'm leaning toward their RS. A few more test rides should get me to the answer.

It sounds like I shouldn't hold my breath on a discount coming up any time soon. Or in half-full speak, I might as well be on the improved bike as soon as I'm able to.

Carbon Unit

Specialized will also knock off some money in the late fall early winter. A friend bought a Specialzed that would have sold for about $2400 and got it for $1800 or $1900. Specialized will be blowing out the 2010s to make room for 2011s.

stien

Didn't they do that in Superman 3?