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No country knows how many people have Coronavirus

Old 03-27-20, 02:49 AM
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alo
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No country knows how many people have Coronavirus

The truth is, there is no country in the world where it is known how many people have Coronavirus. They only know the results of those who have been tested, and that is only a small proportion of the population. The only way they could have accurate records, would be to test everyone in the country. Then retest them from time to time, as they may get it later.

So countries where more testing is being done, appear to have more people infected, and countries where less testing is being done, appear to have less people infected. The statistics we see are far from accurate, and that is in places where they are trying to be honest.

Then there are countries where they are trying to present a good image, so the country looks good. Myanmar does not have any Coronavirus, if you believe what you say. A large proportion of the income in countries in S E Asia comes from tourists. It is important to make things look good so more tourists will come.
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Old 03-27-20, 04:27 AM
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Bikeforums is clearly infected.
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Old 03-27-20, 04:34 AM
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I occasionally watch a YouTube channel called "Gone With The Wynns". They have been sailing around the world for a couple years on a live-aboard catamaran, but had left their boat in Tonga while they went to visit a friend in South Africa for a month or so. Then the virus hit, and they scrambled to return to their boat to self isolate. They almost made it, but after arriving in Fiji, with one more flight to get to Tonga, the government of Tonga closed its borders due to its first case of Coronavirus being discovered. What's more, the last operating airline, Fiji Air, shut down operations and they are stranded in Fiji. Probably there are worse places to be stranded, but...
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Old 03-27-20, 05:07 AM
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“Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good” - It’s still necessary to test, even if coverage is not 100%, to determine the efficacy of containment measures.
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Old 03-27-20, 05:28 AM
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Originally Posted by gregf83 View Post
“Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good” - It’s still necessary to test, even if coverage is not 100%, to determine the efficacy of containment measures.
This ^^^^^
​​​​​​There is no way for us to test and process the tests from 325,000,000 residents. Correctly done randomized testing, though still outstripping our current ludicrously low testing capabilities, would suffice to guide us.
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Old 03-27-20, 06:20 AM
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The main point I was trying to make, is people will say this country has more cases than that country, etc. etc. In some cases it is not true, because we don't know the true numbers.
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Old 03-27-20, 06:23 AM
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Originally Posted by DeadGrandpa View Post
They have been sailing around the world for a couple years on a live-aboard catamaran, but had left their boat in Tonga while they went to visit a friend in South Africa for a month or so. Then the virus hit, and they scrambled to return to their boat to self isolate. They almost made it, but after arriving in Fiji, with one more flight to get to Tonga, the government of Tonga closed its borders due to its first case of Coronavirus being discovered. What's more, the last operating airline, Fiji Air, shut down operations and they are stranded in Fiji. Probably there are worse places to be stranded, but...
There are a lot of people stranded in Cambodia. I don't know numbers, but it would be dozens. There are hundreds more happy to be there.

There are some people in difficult situations. For example, their money is running out. Some will overstay their visas, and may have to pay a fine. If a person has an accident, for example, it could be terrible.
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Old 03-27-20, 07:29 AM
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The closest that human population has ever experienced to such a pandemic with a long incubation period which can be transmitted easily was in 1918. The Spanish Flu (look it up). That is 100 years ago, not that long. That should attest the fact for how forgetful or stupid we are as a species. And there have been countless scientific papers published in between, warning us about the inter-species transferrable coronaviruses, especially found in bats, and the researchers who published those papers even pinpointed the potential origin of such a new pandemic to be the animal markets in China. I have seen such a paper from 2007. Did we take these seriously? Of course not. Now we have to pay the dues.
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Old 03-27-20, 08:08 AM
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I'm thinking it'll subside due to all the government-requested isolation procedures, but when we get back into 'normal mode' and go about our daily business (including close social interaction) its gonna reappear and spread so quickly that there won't be a window in time to isolate people from it. We're just going to have to let it run its course until a vaccine is developed for it.
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Old 03-27-20, 08:12 AM
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I don’t know what the truth is and what is BS. Trying to decipher between what are the facts out of the idiot box I call the TV. Is a PITA.
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Old 03-27-20, 08:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
I don’t know what the truth is and what is BS. Trying to decipher between what are the facts out of the idiot box I call the TV. Is a PITA.
At the risk of this thread being moved to P&R... I would suggest listening to Fauci, rather than "that other guy...":
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Old 03-27-20, 09:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Newspaper_Nick View Post
The closest that human population has ever experienced to such a pandemic with a long incubation period which can be transmitted easily was in 1918. The Spanish Flu (look it up). That is 100 years ago, not that long. That should attest the fact for how forgetful or stupid we are as a species. And there have been countless scientific papers published in between, warning us about the inter-species transferrable coronaviruses, especially found in bats, and the researchers who published those papers even pinpointed the potential origin of such a new pandemic to be the animal markets in China. I have seen such a paper from 2007. Did we take these seriously? Of course not. Now we have to pay the dues.
​​​​​​Rabbits and geese are so much better at remembering things that happened 100 years ago.
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Old 03-27-20, 10:32 AM
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We should get a much better idea in the next few weeks when they start doing antibody tests.

What you're saying is absolutely right. Different countries report things differently. China want to claim they controlled it and apparently only count as a positive a test where someone had severe symptoms. Italy on the other hand is said to be recording everyone who dies and had covid as having died of covid.

As far as I know all the published tests so far have been the PCR test which is positive for people who are actually infected at the time of the test

That's what you want in the early stages of an outbreak but right now we need to know how many people have already had it without noticing. If there are large numbers of those we might be starting to get some immunity (so know when it's safe to lift lockdowns) and also have a much better idea of the true mortality rate and therefore how many extra ventilators etc. we need.

​​​​I suspect that quite a lot of people have had it. If there are really only about 300k cases worldwide why does every other celebrity and politician seem to have it? It's just that they get tested when they have a cold. Studies like the one in the town of Vo in Italy showed a high proportion of completely or almost completely asymptomatic cases, but I think even that was a PCR study so would not have counted people who had had it maybe a month or two ago and recovered.

Anyway these antibody tests should settle the issue and they are coming soon.



​​​​
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Old 03-27-20, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted by alo View Post
The main point I was trying to make, is people will say this country has more cases than that country, etc. etc. In some cases it is not true, because we don't know the true numbers.
That's why they are reported as confirmed cases. The data can always be misconstrued, given sufficient effort.

South Korea appears to be a good counter-example of your OP claim. Not coincidently, it is also one country that has achieved containment.

A much better question might be why the wealthiest and most technologically advanced country on the planet now has the largest number of confirmed cases.
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Old 03-27-20, 11:40 AM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
That's why they are reported as confirmed cases. The data can always be misconstrued, given sufficient effort.

South Korea appears to be a good counter-example of your OP claim. Not coincidently, it is also one country that has achieved containment.

A much better question might be why the wealthiest and most technologically advanced country on the planet now has the largest number of confirmed cases.
Korea is also the one country that really took testing seriously. As I understand it, virtually anybody can get tested. I don't think they need to either see a doctor or have symptoms. And they do it drive thorough! We already have the facilities for a drive-through operation that requires zero close interaction - drive-thorough banks; most of which are doing very little these days. My understanding is that here in Portland, you need to go to a clinic (I think with an appointment and maybe a referral). When you get there, you wait in the parking lot. Someone fully suited up takes you to the CV testing entrance. A lot of work to run one test! And risk of exposure to those not infected, both those tested and the tester. Now, we do our best to reserve the few tests we have for those who will show positive so there shouldn't be many "clean" folk getting tested. In Korea, a negative test means "be careful; you are still at risk".

I read in the NY Times yesterday that the FDA is going after three small companies trying to get out tests they developed. Yes, those companies have been "negligent" on getting full FDA approval' (My word.) But if you understand the need to lower the bell curve, you know the tests are needed right now. (Cities and states are right now in bidding wars with the Federal agencies to get test kits!) FDA approval happens on FDA time. Months, years. We don't have that time. A few blown calls will do far less damage in the long run than changing people's behavior right now. Of course, in suit happy America, those companies and the FDA will have to deal with the consequences of blown calls for decades and millions of dollars. Much better plan to avoid such consequences and just let people live as always, infect others and deal with a few thousand deaths. And with your head stuck firmly in the sand. you can be one happy ostrich.

Ben
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Old 03-27-20, 12:07 PM
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Just to put something interesting into the conversation: I had a 'head cold' three weeks ago - sinuses stuffed up, sore throat, cough, but no fever. My workplace sent me home with stuff to do on over a web connection. Maybe I had it, but just a mild form? If that's the case then I'll never be counted in the statistics of who got COVID19.
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Old 03-27-20, 12:23 PM
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"Figures lie and liars figure "
A quote that is so true today, from politicians to medical professionals. If nobody knows the truth, what is the truth?
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Old 03-27-20, 02:42 PM
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What medical professionals are lying about this?
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Old 03-27-20, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
That's why they are reported as confirmed cases. The data can always be misconstrued, given sufficient effort.

South Korea appears to be a good counter-example of your OP claim. Not coincidently, it is also one country that has achieved containment.

A much better question might be why the wealthiest and most technologically advanced country on the planet now has the largest number of confirmed cases.
The answer is obvious, right? This would have been a problem under any circumstances but a wealthy country with a lack of clear leadership that understands the issue, that fails to provide adequate testing, masks, or ventilators is one in deep, deep trouble.

We now have the highest number of coronavirus infections of any country and we know that number is low because our testing is so abysmal compared to other wealthy nations on a per capita basis.
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Old 03-27-20, 03:08 PM
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Part of the problem is the haphazard response. Even without tests to confirm or refute, it's still a mess.

I get most health care through the VA and it's mostly been very good. One exception was a bad experience with a chiropractor last year. And the slow roll-out of the Mission Act has been frustrating for those of us who are willing to opt for private practice clinics if it's closer and quicker.

But I was really disappointed last week by the local VA clinic's response to the coronavirus.

It was time for my annual checkup. I considered rescheduling for after the pandemic settles down, but I really need referrals to specialists for a persistent respiratory inflammation that's completely unrelated to any cold or flu virus. So I needed this appointment to insist on referrals to ENT, allergist and rheumatologist.

The clinic was screening people at the front door, presumably to limit the number of people inside. Many VA facilities seem crowded every day, but many of the older fellows there are just socializing. Some hang out all day just to chat with other veterans. For now the clinics are trying to limit entry to people with appointments or needs for walk-in services.

But the screener didn't ask any questions about my health. Nothing about symptoms, or whether I'd recently traveled out of the country or high risk US urban area.

The intake nurse skipped checking my temperature. Just blood pressure and heart rate. No questions about symptoms, travel, etc -- which they ALWAYS have done before, every visit, regardless of any epidemic or pandemic.

We were seated in separate waiting areas, so I was never within 10 yards of another patient.

The appointment was still productive. Got my referrals. But I'm disappointed and surprised by the haphazard response.

I actually saw a more efficient response on the city buses that day.

We are woefully under-prepared for this kind of thing.

My ENT and allergist referrals are scheduled for April. I may call to ask about rescheduling for later this year. Partly to avoid burdening the system. They may have patients with greater medical need by next month. And, frankly, I don't want to take unnecessary risks to expose myself. I already have an auto-immune disorder that causes my body to overreact, sometimes attacking my own organs. It's like hiring a bodyguard to protect me, but he's paranoid and bored and starts picking fights with my own organs. On the plus side, I can't remember the last time i had the flu or a cold. I seem to have pretty good resistance to common viruses and germs of all kinds. But it comes at a cost -- it finally killed my thyroid a couple of years ago, and seems to have moved on to other parts of my body, mistaking them for invaders.

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Old 03-27-20, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by guy153 View Post
We should get a much better idea in the next few weeks when they start doing antibody tests.

What you're saying is absolutely right. Different countries report things differently. China want to claim they controlled it and apparently only count as a positive a test where someone had severe symptoms. Italy on the other hand is said to be recording everyone who dies and had covid as having died of covid.

​​​​
I certainly believe that China is under reporting and is likely reclassifying causes of death whenever possible. I mean, if I was China's boss, I'd do the same thing. "All those people died of natural causes, or drug overdose. Nothing to see here, move along. "

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Old 03-27-20, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by alo View Post
The main point I was trying to make, is people will say this country has more cases than that country, etc. etc. In some cases it is not true, because we don't know the true numbers.
So your main concern is perception and that the numbers might not make the US look like the greatest, bestest, most beautifully wonderful country? Sad. Very sad.
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Old 03-27-20, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted by WhyFi View Post
So your main concern is perception and that the numbers might not make the US look like the greatest, bestest, most beautifully wonderful country? Sad. Very sad.
I said what I meant, and I meant what I said. What you are claiming is totally untrue. I am not American, and I don't think like an American.
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Old 03-27-20, 06:10 PM
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Originally Posted by alo View Post
I said what I meant, and I meant what I said. What you are claiming is totally untrue. I am not American, and I don't think like an American.
Ah, so you're concerned about the flip side of that perception: that some undeserving country, particularly those South East Asians, will look less bad and..... what? Rake in all the tourism money that others are missing out on because people are just looking to travel, travel, travel given the current conditions?
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Old 03-27-20, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by WhyFi View Post
Ah, so you're concerned about the flip side of that perception: that some undeserving country, particularly those South East Asians, will look less bad and..... what? Rake in all the tourism money that others are missing out on because people are just looking to travel, travel, travel given the current conditions?
I think even you know there will be a lot less travel in the near future. Why don't you just take what I said for what it is, and stop making false accusations?
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