Polaris OBark

https://www.bikeforums.net/22635306-post1062.html

bikelif3

You guys must have donated a lot to the current powers.

Eric F 

I’m getting rc5781 vibes.

Kapusta

I believe you are interpreting the term “3 out of 10 times” out of context. It does not mean that there will be exactly 3 every 10 times. It means that in the long run it averages out to that. (As N gets large).

And in terms of forecasting, that is exactly how you measure the long accuracy of forecasts. If it rains close 70% of the time you give a 70% chance of rain, then your 70% forecasts are reliable.

And my point was that not raining 30% of the time (3 in 10) is not indicative of an error in the forecasting.

A batting average is not the same a a forecast. You may base your forecast on the batting average, though. But forecasting the chance of a hit at a specific at-bat may also take other things into account, like who is pitching and if the batter it injured,

CliffordK

The accuracy of a weather forecast may depend somewhat on one's location. Here, they can monitor weather patterns in the Pacific and forecasts are quite good.

I grew up in a time when a next day forecast was about as good as it could get, and even that made lots of errors, with many jokes that more accurate forecasts could be made by simply sticking one's hand out the window.

Then we had a squawk box that would eventually give a few days advance notice.

Then, perhaps 5 days to 7 days. Then 10 days. Now 14 days on weather.com

And I find the weather forecast to be very good. My biggest annoyance was when I was heavily bike commuting. I'd check the forecast before leaving. If it said no rain, then I'd leave the rain gear at home. Inevitably there'd be days when it was nice all day, then start pouring at about 6:00 PM, right as I'd be headed home. As if they ignored the evening as part of the day.

Erring towards predicting rain when the weather is good may be preferable to predicting sun and getting rain. For hay, one needs about a week of good sunny weather. Cut the hay, and then get a week of rain, and one can lose the entire crop, which can be an economic disaster.

Lombard

^^^This. 10% chance of rain usually turns out to be a beautiful day, but there is still that 10% chance. The other thing I have found is that radar does not pick up mist and drizzle. I once ended up riding in 30 miles of mist and drizzle on a 0% chance of rain day.

In the Northeast, I have found that anything more than 3 days out is useless and should be taken with a grain of salt. There is an old saying in New England: If you don't like the weather, just wait 5 minutes.

Trakhak

As Mark Twain said, “If you don't like New England weather, wait a few minutes.”

People often cite that quotation but substitute Pennsylvania, or West Virginia, or . . . .

Daniel4

I learned recently that is a popular misinterpretation of pop.

P.o.p. is for a specified region or area. So 70% chance of rain actually means that 70% of that area will experience rain.

Kapusta

This is incorrect. PoP is the probability of rain falling in any given spot within the forecasted area over a given time.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prob..._precipitation

PeteHski

What you have written above makes no sense and is an absolute statement, not a probability. In your example above, what is the probability of 70% of that area actually experiencing rain?
70% chance of rain at a given location over a given time period is simply that. An informed estimate of the likelihood of rain at that location and time.

Lombard

Wow. I didn't know that was Mark Twain.

veganbikes

"The current powers"? The mods here are volunteers it isn't some secret cabal of Rothschilds or even Rothsteens or Rothsadults just a bunch of volunteers keeping a online forum from descending into complete chaos. There is no weird conspiracy behind them they are not some elite force keeping you down though I guess they have banned other users for doing what you are doing but that is normal for any well run forum. I guess you don't yet understand how things work which from seeing your posts make sense but it isn't tough not everyone is out to get you and not everyone is planting secret potato chips in you nor are there lizard people controlling you with fluoride and Doritos nor did Michael Jackson, James Naismith and Pliny the Elder fake the Mars landing on a sound stage in Mumbai. Sometimes yes there are some harder to explain things by your average person but that doesn't mean there is a conspiracy or some clickbait behind it.

Sometimes you are believing things to fit in rather than using the old noggin or you are using the old noggin in the case of an online forum to troll people instead of having a meaningful discussion about the topics of the forums in this case bikes. So many great things and less than great things to talk about that are cycling related and not just the weather and sunscreen ingredients which are not cycling related in the way you have presented them.

Also of note vaccines won't cause Jungle Boogie, Smoke on the Water or turn you into a Tiny Dancer or a Disco Duck, despite what Grimace and the Noid have told you (remember kids avoid the Noid).Though Scatman might cause you to ski-ba-bop-ba-dop-bop but beyond that you should be OK.

Eric F 

Yum!

Clyde1820

Myself, I use the U.S. National Weather Service website. I don't imagine they would make any "clickbait" advertising dollars or any alternate benefits simply by viewing the GOES satellite data, doppler, simple forecasts and the like.

Plus, using a couple of good adware suppression features on my computer helps to keep the muck down to a bare minimum. I generally don't see much stuff like that.

Koyote

Nonsense. Explanation.

OP's entire premise is also nonsense.

indyfabz

I first heard that in Montana while riding across the country, only it was check back in 15 minutes.

Being a city boy from the east, I focused at lot more on potential weather. A woman in Montana told me that she keeps a pair of boots, coat and shovel behind the seat of her pickup truck because the weather can change so quickly and wildly.

Riding through the Cabinet Mountains area it was completely overcast, cold and misty when we started out. A few of us stopped in a roadhouse in Little Joe, MT (real name) for some warming coffee after maybe 15 miles. When we left about 30 min. later there was not a cloud in the sky.

daihard 

Thanks for checking in. They elaborated on that using the "as N gets large" explanation in their next reply, so we are on the samge page. Honestly, without that elaboration, I take "3 out of 30 times" literally, as I've met a lot of people who do interpret a 30 percent probability as "happening 3 out of 10 times' with no context.

indyfabz

Does you comma key occasionally malfunction?

Kapusta

True, that is a common misperception.

CliffordK

I found the time I spent in Missouri annoying. During the summer, I could wake up to sun, then by mid day there was a thunder shower and torrential rain.

Anyway, no forecast is perfectly accurate. But, let's try an experiment.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l...77792e1e4fe722

A weather system just blew in yesterday and the day before bringing some rain, and leaving us with a lot of overcast clouds and cooler temperatures.

It currently shows sunny and partly cloudy for the next 14 days (June 20 to July 4), with the exception of "Morning Showers" Monday/Tuesday June 26/27 with a 39%/33% probability of showers.

So, we'll see...

Polaris OBark

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=40.0;-104.0;3&l=rain-3h

jon c. 

I would have thought because of that no one would play those numbers. But in an analysis of lottery play I read some time back that was in fact the most played combination. This was probably 25 years ago before the current massive interstate games so I don't know if player psychology has changed in the interim. I can't quickly find a recent analysis, but apparently these days the majority of plays are machine selected quick picks so I suspect that no longer holds true.

As far as weather forecasts, I find them to be fairly accurate. And unlike in my youth, most local forecasters these days are meteorologists and follow established forecasting models. So I don't think there's a lot of bias involved. Being on the gulf coast, summer here sees many small pop up storms so a high probability of rain may be correct even if it doesn't actually hit me. My golf course is about 10 miles from my house and it's common to see it rain in one place and not the other. So you have to take that into account in assessing the relative accuracy.

Polaris OBark

Whenever I fly, I always pack a bomb in my luggage. I do this, because the probability of there being two bombs on an airplane is extremely small.

Eds0123

[QUOTE=bikelif3;22927539]
Often based on the previous evening forecast for rain, I often chalk up the next day as a "no ride rain day" only to have it be clear and sunny.
QUOTE]

I don't "chalk up". I just go ride. Rain 🌧️ is fine.It cools you off.

Iride01 

If I'm going riding, I look outside.

If it looks like it might be a day for rain showers then I pull up the weather radar from the website of one of the local stations and look at that to assess whether I'm happy with my chances of getting wet.

Only for special plans several days ahead will I glance at a weather site to see what they think might happen.