veganbikes

It was two of them but they were both in a coma but also blends in with the surroundings so I guess you could call it a comma comma coma chameleon.

veganbikes

My mom is actually dead!

I don't know I think they hit the mark quite nicely, Darrell Hammond as Sean Connery and Will Ferell as Alex Trebek was a pretty big hit for SNL. Not to mention Norm MacDonald as Burt "Turd Ferguson" Reynolds... It was a classic recurring sketch and even Alex himself liked it.

Sorry you didn't enjoy it, I guess comedy isn't your thing?

Koyote

I once bought an old house, and subsequently found that it'd been hit by a tornado in 1930 -- some years, on the anniversary, the local paper would run a photo of the damage, as it was apparently the ONLY house that had been hit by the tornado.

I always felt pretty safe in that house. After all, it was pre-disastered.

venturi95

And now something completely different...
I mostly use the lameass app on my iPhone that came with it since new. It seems to continually, for years, ignore the concept of "localized probability." I am in the rain shadow of the Cascades and most of the rain predictions for me are totally unbelievable. Accuweather is no better, virtually identical.

Eric F 

I loved that skit. Good stuff!

Koyote

The best rain prediction app was Dark Sky -- I would get alerts shortly before it was to begin raining, and it's forecasts (on all weather metrics) was quite good. Apple bought Dark Sky, and claims to have integrated it into the iPhone's native weather app. An app which, anecdotally, I find to be quite good.

Polaris OBark

AAA is billing me $6K/year now for homeowner's insurance, as a thank-you present for me helping to ensure it didn't burn with most of the houses in the region in 2020. Perhaps they need a lesson in probability theory. (Perhaps I need to move.)

Sy Reene

I just flipped a quarter 4 times, and it came up heads 3 of those times. I'm going to hang on to this lucky coin!

Polaris OBark

Heads I win.
Tails you lose.

Koyote

Sophomore year, undergrad stats class. Professor was using the old example: If I flip a coin nine times and it comes up heads each time, what are the odds of it being heads the tenth time? Except his accent led him to drop the "s" when asking us, "What are the odds that I get heads?"

He obviously thought it was a great example because we were all enjoying it so much. It actually IS a great example. I wonder how many bf'ers would get it wrong?

Polaris OBark

You have to specify his marital status.

Eric F 

Although coin-flipping is a common example of a random outcome, it's not necessarily always random. If I start the coin with the same side up every time, and learn to control the consistency of my thumb-flick, I can get a predictable result. This is similar to a juggler with bowling pins. It's not random that the small end is in the right spot for easy catching after each toss.

Koyote

Oh yes. I can juggle round objects quite easily. But if the objects aren't round, it's a whole different thing.

Eric F 

Likewise. Only 3, though. More than that is beyond my skill level.

livedarklions

Daniel4 's version is wrong, but not complete nonsense as areal coverage is part of the formula.

According to your source, it's the probability it will rain in the area times the proportion of the area that will receive rain.

"Using this, here are two examples giving the same statistical result: (1) If the forecaster was 80% certain that rain would develop but only expected to cover 50% of the forecast area, then the forecast would read "a 40% chance of rain" for any given location. (2) If the forecaster expected a widespread area of precipitation with 100% coverage to approach, but he/she was only 40% certain that it would reach the forecast area, this would, as well, result in a "40% chance of rain" at any given location in the forecast area."