xiaoman1 

High, Low take your choice....I think it depends on where you live, in Los Angeles I see high-end bikes languish on CL in the 500-1000 range and yet when appraisals are given on similar bikes here one might think we should purchase them and resell to here to make a profit.
IMHO I think many of us overvalue the bikes in our possession.
1000.00 px-10's and 400 to 500 Centurion Iron man's don't sell...market is soft unless one really want/needs a bike to fill a hole in their collection.
JM2C's, Ben

KonAaron Snake 

So much of this depends on how and where you sell it. If you're selling high end stuff, who you are and your reputation can make a difference on what you get. Are you sellinmg on ebay? Willing to ship international? How are the photos? Your description? Not all sellers are equal. Not all markets are equal.

Kevindale

I think the appraisals here are about as accurate as you're going to find. I know that most high end vintage bikes that I see on CL or the 'bay have asking prices that are too high, and they don't sell for those prices. When I lived in a medium sized city in the south, I'm pretty sure I was the ENTIRE vintage bike market. If I didn't buy it, it didn't sell, regardless of price. My impression is that many people, when they're selling a nice vintage bike, look up asking prices on eBay and asking prices on websites that do extensive photo shoots and sell at a premium, and figure that's what they should get. As has been stated here again and again, most of the people naming prices are talking based on their experiences.

I've been lusting for another Tommasini for a while. I keep seeing the same bikes on that big auction website, month after month, most with BIN prices that seem fairly reasonable for these high-end and coveted bikes, and yet they simply don't sell. Unless you have a museum quality bike (i.e., real historical value, or the top level model by a coveted builder, in great shape), your likely market is knowledgeble bargain hunting folks like this bikeforums C&V crowd, and the price has to be pretty sweet for us to nab that N+1.

Kevindale

And this fact (location, location, location) is cited in virtually every appraisal I see here. The problem is that people often don't or won't say where they are, or how they want to sell it, or indicate they don't know how to fix a bike up. Or they're in a small market, but figure they can still ask the big city/college town price. And as noted by someone else, there are TONS of bargains to be had in a big city like LA.

About 7 months ago there was a guy in the boonies in the Netherlands who asked about a very nice bike, I think it was a Koga Miyata FullPro or similar. A Dutch regular here said it was probably worth about 300 euros in the current Dutch market. Someone on the forum in Denver said something like "I'd happily pay $600 or more if that bike fit me and was for sale in Denver." He took that as an appraisal. I communicated with him, since I was just moving to Amsterdam, and the bike would fit me. I offered what the Dutch appraisal was, and explained that it would cost me a fair bit to either train out and back to him, or to have him ship it, and the bike would still need a full rehab, since it hadn't been ridden in over 20 years. The guy was insulted, saying "I know people are willing to pay much much more." He ended up listing in for over 600 euros on Marktplaats (where one can offer a lesser amount). In the month I followed it, I didn't see it get an offer. If he ended up selling it, I am certain it was very close to the 300 euros a knowledgable member suggested.

jet sanchEz

Remember the track bike bubble? Everyone and their uncle wanted a track bike---any run of the mill track bike would sell for $800 in an instant, nice Italian ones would go for $1500 and the NJS builds would easily hit $2000. Now, in 2018, you'd be lucky to get $800 for a mint NJS build on eBay.

Welcome to the vintage bike bubble, and it has burst.

Kevindale

I think the reasons you expect more, and get more, than most appraisals here are that you prepare/rehab your bikes carefully and knowledgeably, you present them expertly, you are (I believe) willing to ship, and most of all you are patient. The prices on a site like Steel Vintage Bikes are likewise much higher than an average person, selling on their local Craigslist or Marktplaats, is going to get. The people who come here are often asking about bikes that they have inherited or found in their garage or local thrift stores. They don't know exactly what they have, don't understand the issues the bike may have regarding functionality or originality, they don't know how to fix them or clean them or present them, are usually unwilling to ship, and they're often in markets where vintage quality bikes are not especially coveted.

I think there's a little cognitive bias in blanket statements like "the appraisals here are too low." I think the appraisals here are, based on my experiences buying a few bikes and selling even fewer (but also looking a LOT at CL/eBay/Marktplaats) are extremely good, and virtually always list the caveats (e.g., "as is, it likely will sell for $200-250, but properly cleaned and tuned and presented, ...."). But we tend to remember the bikes that got appraisals that were markedly too low or too high.

wrk101

How many bikes have you sold in the last year? How many have you bought? Several posters on this forum have bought and sold a lot of bikes. Historically I bought and sold 50 a year, some years I've sold over 75. A little ebb and flow. I've bought at least 600 in the last 12 years. I've been backing off as the pricing is getting really soft.

+100 Asking prices can have very little relation to actual selling price.

In general, I find the values posted here to be HIGH, not low. Of course, I don't live in a red hot market.

As far as the classified, sellers have the obligation to ship and pack, which IMHO is a PITA. Values I give here are for simple, LOCAL, sales. If you are willing to ship, you should and will get more. Whether the "more" is worth your trouble, I am not so sure. I've sold frames here as low as $50, plus actual shipping plus $10 supplies. The supplies I use are more like at least $15. As a financial transaction, those sales are not worth my time. I do it more to share the love of the interest. Anymore, most of my mid level or below frames go straight to the co op.

I have found despite the economy becoming much better, values for the average stuff has dropped, a lot. Now the unique, rare, special, not so much. So I have completely STOPPED buying and flipping bikes that used to sell for around $200. I've had to aim higher, which is cutting down my volume in numbers, but not as much in dollars. I will continue to reduce my inventory so it is my keeper fleet. Any more, I make a lot more money on parts. Sold a really cool stem for $350 recently. Obviously not the average stem.


The issues I have with values put up on this forum are: 1. Does the estimate come from an active buyer and seller with recent activity and 2. While an estimate may be fair market value, I have found fair market value can be a LOT of work to get. Bike needs to be perfect, everything fresh, and good to great marketing skills. Its not like you can take your bike to the bank and they will give you FMV for it.

When I give a value, it is NOT what I would pay! First, many bikes people ask about I would never buy. Secondly, if I did buy, I usually pay about 25% of FMV or less. This is to give me room for mistakes, over optimistic values and so on. Only one of my keeper bikes did I pay FMV (Chicago Paramount). So the values are based on similar bikes I have sold, in similar condition. Maybe others can do better!

wrk101

Randy, are any of your sales LOCAL? I am guessing no. Someone willing and able to pack and ship to a global market will do better. Most sellers that come here have neither the skill nor the interest in packing and shipping a bike.

In my local market, you could not get $500 for a PX10.

Most recent PX10 sale on eBay? $332. Shipping to my home would have been a very reasonable $50. Highest in recent history was $750. Most are going for $400 to $500.

Meanwhile, someone got $150 for just the Simplex seat post.


I have no doubt values in Toronto, NYC, San Fran, Portland, OR; are all much higher than here. Then again, everything there is higher: taxes, rent, coffee, you name it. I live in a town where you can buy a decent home for $125,000. Something very nice might bring $200,000.

I'm surprised that people who have obviously bought and sold hundreds of bikes in a particular market continue to ask those not in those markets for value estimates.

Poguemahone

That would have been the period where I received regular unsolicited offers for mine.

But yeah, prices are lower. I tend to now only make appraisals on American Customs, because that's really the only segment of the market I follow any longer. The market's moved enough so often I don't feel too safe placing a dollar value on anything otherwise, though hubris sometimes entraps me.

StarBiker

C'mon, as long as you are willing to ship them to upper Mongolia.....

bnewberry

I have been reading this with interest. I am mostly a buyer, and since I don't live in a major metro area my available supply is very limited. Because of this I mostly buy here and on eBay. I also tend to pay "top dollar".

Overall I think that the market is getting softer and will probably continue to do so. Someday I will find a Paramount for less than 500.00!

Giacomo 1 

I also seem to pay "top dollar".

I never tell folks here what I pay, because if I say I spent $200 on a frame, somebody will say they bought the same one for $25.99 or something silly like that. Somebody on the C&V forum said that he just bought a panto'd Chesini frame for 80 bucks! Makes me want to scream.

I actually don't mind paying good money for something I really want in the condition I want it in. Not everything has to be the deal of the century.

randyjawa 

I sell both locally and globally, but the big bucks come from global sales. You many have noticed that I try to keep my product prices low, for this forum, and that is because shipping is a definite detriment for me and anyone who buys from me.

I am not a greedy guy. Local sales, this year, included about a dozen bikes. Global, four and each of those four were builds for people who approached me, asked for me to find them a bike, build the bike, ship the bike and, of course, get paid. My local bikes sell for between $100.00 CND and $300.00 CND and any local buyer gets a first season guarantee(I stand behind what I sell and if I goof, I fix it)...

randyjawa 

Post #38 addresses my local results for this summer past. They were bikes bought and sold locally. However, something unusual has happened to me and I have to guess that it is because of the website that I published to help others.

A few years ago, I got pretty much fed up with Ebay and the "toheckwiththebuyer" philosophy. I stopped selling complete bikes or frame sets on the Bay. But people started contacting me to see what I had to offer or to find something they wanted and then build it up for them. It would be unfair to report what these bikes sold for but my guess is that most of you would be surprised...






Generally, if you want top dollar, if there is such a thing, for a bike, you must be prepared to market it well and be patient. I freely admit that I have at least two advantage over most sellers...

First, I have been doing this for a long time. And second, I took the time to document my interests in vintage bicycles, hence MY "TEN SPEEDS".

Thanks to that publication, I have been given free bikes, some people even paying the shipping. How would you like to have a complete, and kind, stranger, send you a 1950s Carlton..?

Kevindale

Randy, your website is one of the things that pulled me into this hobby. You have a credibility and a reputation that doesn't apply to any of the random people who come here and ask for an appraisal of the bike they found in their garage or at a local yard sale. So for you, the appraisals here probably are too low. But out in the rest of the world, my sense (having bought bikes now in six different markets) is that the appraisals here are generally quite good, and are as likely to be too high as too low. And the appraisals that don't come from the members here who are regular sellers (like Oddjob2 and wrk101), or who aren't experts in their area of interest, are generally too high, at least based on my following these things for the last couple of years.

As I said before, I think there is a lot of confirmation bias at play here. If your sense is that the appraisals are high, you will remember the outliers. And the same if your bias is that they are too low, except you'll take note of the appraisals that go in the other direction.

The other thing we don't have, at least very often, is feedback from sellers. How often do people come here, get an appraisal (with lots of caveats) that ranges from $250-350, and tell us they sold it for $575? Or that they couldn't move it until they came down to $175? The only thing we have that resembles a database of actual sales is looking at eBay "sold" listings (which has a lot of issues) or trusting the word of frequent sellers about what prices they're getting.

Dsprok

I wonder what is causing that?
Could it be the people who drove the initial demand are passing on and hence the demand dwindles

StarBiker

I just sold my 1989 Trek 660 for $340. I only listed it on Balto/DC CL, and I got a whopping three responses in 6 months. Constantly reposting it. I did have it up for $400, but came down to $370, and I got an offer of $320, I countered with $350 and the buyer passed. I listed it at $340 and it sold. It was in great shape. I really have never found it that easy to sell more expensive bikes. If you stay around $200 they will sell faster. Start getting over $300 and they will take a while.
I listed a Cannondale Adventure for $190 Monday and I have had a half a dozen inquiries.

mstateglfr 

Make the rear brake cable longer so its a proper length, adjust the saddle so it doesnt impale the rider, and drop the bars so they don't point to in front of the crankset while also allowing the brakes to be used in the drops and the hoods to be comfortably held while riding.

a properly set up bike, neutral in appearance and setup, will often pull in more interest.

CliffordK

A lot depends on the bike. I have offered estimates based on what I've seen (or paid for) on Craigslist, and whether I'd be interested in a particular bike. Occasionally I'll be surprised by some "cult bike".

I may hit a little higher in my estimates than average.

Some people here are pretty brutal on the 70's "boom bikes". But, realistically, I also know the difference between a $50 thrift store special, and fully restored ready to ride $150 "boom bike".

There are some great deals in 30 year old $250 to $300 bikes. Solid bikes, perhaps not the lightest available, but solid bikes.

Then you have those special bikes, good brands, etc... that push up into the $600 to $1000 range.

I've seen a few people asking > $1000 for a vintage bike. They don't sell quickly, but might snag the person that wants just that special bike.

StarBiker

And if those things were done to make you happy it would have sold so much faster....what nonsense. All somebody had to do was take allen key and bring the bars, and seat forward. And I made the cable short so when I picked the bike up to run across the street the bars weren't flopping around. I included a new set of cables with the sale.

And that's something else. Many people don't wan't to admit in this sub forum, but many vintage road bikes are uncomfortable to ride. The frame geometry isn't as comfortable as a modern bike.

And drop bars...are not comfortable. I have never found these bars to be comfortable. If I change them on that bike I really do hurt the value.

Bottom line price, all the choices in modern bikes, especially used modern bikes, and the demand for gravel off road bikes is hurting the vintage road bike market.

Gravel bikes are out pacing vintage road bikes. Easily.

StarBiker

This is a 52, I need a 55, but I find this bike to be completely comfortable. Still don't use the drops though.
I think a bike like this will sell faster than a comparable vintage bike in the same value range. Being a smaller frame helps.
And Trek has made so many bikes it's almost to the point of saturation. Scott has more of a boutique cache whether deserved or not.
From the center of the seat tube to the center of the stem on the 660 was 23 inches, on the Scott it's 19 Inches. Talk about the 660 hurting my neck.

StarBiker

Some very attractive bikes. The Carlton is neat.

Unca_Sam

Tell that to the no-haggle bike flipper with the clean 2008 Trek 2.1 who wanted $400 (going into winter, no less).

Vonruden