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'In NYC, Cycling Deaths Increase But Gears Turn Slowly On Safety Measures'

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'In NYC, Cycling Deaths Increase But Gears Turn Slowly On Safety Measures'

Old 08-14-19, 07:13 PM
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Arthur Peabody
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'In NYC, Cycling Deaths Increase But Gears Turn Slowly On Safety Measures'

19 cyclist deaths in NYC this year - people blame Mayor de Blasio's insufficient zeal in pursuit of Vision Zero. From NPR's All Things Considered
https://www.npr.org/2019/08/14/75121...afety-measures
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Old 08-15-19, 05:54 AM
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If, as the article states, bicycling has doubled in NYC while the number of deaths per year has been pretty constant, bicycling is safer in NYC than it had been.

This is starting to be used as a "nothing works" argument , and focusing on the impossible goal of zero deaths is falling into this obvious political trap. The argument needs to be refocused, pointing out there have been safety gains in NYC, and that it will get better if more is done.
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Old 08-15-19, 07:45 AM
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The article doesn't say how many of those 19 cycling deaths were in bike lanes, where bike lanes disappear or on streets that never had bike lanes.

There's a learning curve by both drivers and cyclists to get over.

The only way cycling and pedestrian deaths would reach and maintain zero is when driver deaths and collisions reach and maintain zero.
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Old 08-15-19, 10:06 AM
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I am a boating safety professional by trade. Understanding cycling safety has similar challenges. To have decent data, you need to know the number of "exposure hours." It is just not possible to get reliable exposure hour data for cyclists. While you can make some inferences based on the estimated total number of cyclists, you really can't arrive at a point of data reliability doing so. We don't have very good non-fatal accident data at all. We do have decent fatality numbers, but the raw numbers are so small that it's difficult to gain statistical significance in the amount of movement we see either way. The information we have surrounding the circumstances of those fatalities is often unreliable or incomplete as well. I am certainly not saying there's not any worth in the data we have, it's just that we will have to accept that some things will remain a relative mystery.
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Old 08-15-19, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by livedarklions
This is starting to be used as a "nothing works" argument
I cited it because a story about bicycling made the national news. That's what's news about it. Bicycling used to be for kiddies. No one covered the Tour de France; it wasn't an Olympic sport; bicycling fatalities weren't news.
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Old 08-15-19, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Arthur P*****y
I cited it because a story about bicycling made the national news. That's what's news about it. Bicycling used to be for kiddies. No one covered the Tour de France; it wasn't an Olympic sport; bicycling fatalities weren't news.
You posted a link to an article and I posted a response to the article. Since nothing I said indicated that there was anything wrong with your posting the link, I have no idea why you think you need to defend posting the article or, for that matter, what any of the above quote has to do with what I posted.

If you disagree with what I posted, I'll be very happy to discuss that. I know you take a lot of guff for putting up links without comment, but I'm not one of the people who criticize you for that. I think it's fine.
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Old 08-15-19, 12:54 PM
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Actually, New York City has pretty good tracking of pedestrian/cyclist INJURIES and pedestrian/cyclist DEATHS. They also have pretty good estimates of pedestrian/cyclist trips/distance travelled. They also have a good tracking of injury/death in motor vehicle crashes.

Bottom line - folks are correct. You check safety in mines by canaries (leading indicators), not dead miners.

(Related, did you know that the "safety metrics" tracked by BP/Transocean such as number of open coffee cups carried on stairs had NOTHING to do with the actually safety of operations? But they were SPECACTULARY GOOD.)

Anyhow, the injury stats in New York City says that things are getting WORSE for pedestrians/cyclists, while getting better for motor vehicle drivers and passengers. Raw numbers and rates.

Zero vision.

-mr. bill
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Old 08-16-19, 04:13 AM
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'New York Needs to Move Aggressively to Protect Cyclists and Pedestrians'
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/o...ke-deaths.html
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Old 08-16-19, 05:07 AM
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https://www.nola.com/news/article_91...0cd08dc48.html
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Old 08-16-19, 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
Anyhow, the injury stats in New York City says that things are getting WORSE for pedestrians/cyclists, while getting better for motor vehicle drivers and passengers. Raw numbers and rates.

Source? Over what time period? As I'm sure you're aware, you can cook the characterization of the "trend" by picking an atypically low year as your starting point and working from there. As they say, figures don't spin, but spinners figure. If the figures get spun to indicate that there's a trend towards worse at the same time safety measures are increasing, that makes for a pretty bad case for finishing the project.

That said, if the figures for the amount of cycling are crap, any casualty rate figure derived from them will also be crap.
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Old 08-16-19, 02:01 PM
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When metal helmets were implemented in World War 1, hospitals noted that head injuries went way up. So metal helmets are no good?
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Old 08-16-19, 02:23 PM
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Originally Posted by livedarklions
Source?
...

That said, if the figures for the amount of cycling are crap, any casualty rate figure derived from them will also be crap.

Year to date bicycle injuries/deaths are up significantly from year to date bicycle injuries/deaths from last year. While the deaths number is noise, the injury numbers are not noise.

Million bicycle trip numbers haven't been released yet by the city for 2018 or 2019 (lags a bit), but the increase in injuries is well outside of being caused by any plausible increase in million bicycle trips this year.

So sorry you can't "crap" your way out of the bad news with noisy denominators.

You can't even throw other "crap" to get your way out of this bad news.

Number of total motor vehicle crashes ytd last year was greater, number of motor vehicle crashes ytd last year without injury was greater, but the number of motor vehicle crashes ytd with injury or death is statistically the same.

New York City has open data. Use the source Luke.

-mr. bill

Last edited by mr_bill; 08-16-19 at 05:30 PM.
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Old 08-16-19, 02:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Daniel4
When metal helmets were implemented in World War 1, hospitals noted that head injuries went way up. So metal helmets are no good?
https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...tuitive-world/

-mr. bill
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Old 08-16-19, 05:36 PM
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Gothamist Opinion

“Komanoff, an economist, has headed several street-safety organizations including Transportation Alternatives.”

-mr. bill
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Old 08-16-19, 08:38 PM
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20% increase over last year to date.

-mr. bill
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Old 08-17-19, 01:43 AM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
Year to date bicycle injuries/deaths are up significantly from year to date bicycle injuries/deaths from last year. While the deaths number is noise, the injury numbers are not noise.

Million bicycle trip numbers haven't been released yet by the city for 2018 or 2019 (lags a bit), but the increase in injuries is well outside of being caused by any plausible increase in million bicycle trips this year.

So sorry you can't "crap" your way out of the bad news with noisy denominators.

You can't even throw other "crap" to get your way out of this bad news.

Number of total motor vehicle crashes ytd last year was greater, number of motor vehicle crashes ytd last year without injury was greater, but the number of motor vehicle crashes ytd with injury or death is statistically the same.

New York City has open data. Use the source Luke.

-mr. bill
Even for you, that's exceptionally snotty. It's also dishonest use of quotes and statistics. You quoted one sentence of my post out of context, then proceeded to misuse "trend" language in just the way the rest of my post said. You're claiming that a difference between the first 7 months of 2019 and the same period in 2018 indicates a suddenly more dangerous riding environment, ignoring that the same dataset you're using indicates a very steady and huge decline in the risk of riding in NYC from 2001 to 2018. That's spin. You have no idea what is causing this increase between the two years, and it could easily be random fluctuation or maybe something as simple as more people riding in 2019's weather than 2018.

I get that bicycle advocacy is all in for using "sky is falling" rhetoric about dangers to try to spur action, but long-term, I think it's a self-defeating strategy. It's discouraging to people who might want to try cycling and, in the case of NYC, if you actually convince people that things have gotten worse at the same time a bunch of infrastructure was put in, you're playing right into a "then why bother" backlash that will work against further improvements.
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Old 08-18-19, 08:38 AM
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Originally Posted by livedarklions
...it could easily be random fluctuation or maybe something as simple as more people riding in 2019's weather than 2018.
Originally Posted by mr_bill
Originally Posted by livedarklions
I get that bicycle advocacy is all in for using "sky is falling" rhetoric about dangers to try to spur action, but long-term, I think it's a self-defeating strategy. It's discouraging to people who might want to try cycling and, in the case of NYC, if you actually convince people that things have gotten worse at the same time a bunch of infrastructure was put in, you're playing right into a "then why bother" backlash that will work against further improvements.
Just because the air quality is far better than it was in the 70s (NYC) or 50s (London) we should not publish AQI because cynics might backlash against the money we spend fighting air polution?

Truth matters, and something is going on with traffic safety in NYC. It’s not the weather.

-mr. bill
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Old 08-18-19, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by mr_bill
Just because the air quality is far better than it was in the 70s (NYC) or 50s (London) we should not publish AQI because cynics might backlash against the money we spend fighting air polution?

Truth matters, and something is going on with traffic safety in NYC. It’s not the weather.

-mr. bill
Well, clearly your entirely unsupported assertion has convinced me. I would respect a "we have made progress, but have far to go" a lot more than this"things are getting worse" nonsense based on nine months. You seriously think something drastically changed from 2018 to 2019? Those trucks and cell phones and what have you were there last year as well.

And the analogy you're looking for would be people trying to lobby for more pollution controls by claiming that the ones that have been implemented so far haven't done any good. I'm not criticizing the collection and release of data, I'm criticizing your misrepresentation of it.
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Old 08-21-19, 01:25 PM
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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/21/n...eaths-nyc.html

The horrific death of a cyclist has intensified debate over whether drivers are being treated too leniently.
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Old 08-21-19, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by livedarklions
And the analogy you're looking for would be people trying to lobby for more pollution controls by claiming that the ones that have been implemented so far haven't done any good. I'm not criticizing the collection and release of data, I'm criticizing your misrepresentation of it.
Where did I say that things are not better than the bad old days, or that nothing has done any good? If that’s your low bar, then don’t worry be happy.

Originally Posted by Arthur P*****y
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/21/n...eaths-nyc.html

The horrific death of a cyclist has intensified debate over whether drivers are being treated too leniently.
He’s been charged with felonies, doing us the favor of going faster than 49 mph. Without the videos....

-mr. bill
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Old 08-24-19, 04:03 AM
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Raw numbers really don't tell you anything. If the number of deaths double but the number of riders increase by 3x, then things actually are safer. Anytime I see a story hyping a raw number I know it's not worth reading. Rates are what count.
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