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Self-Driving Car Progress-Free 2019

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Self-Driving Car Progress-Free 2019

Old 01-01-19, 12:44 PM
  #26  
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Innovation in the transportation industry is directly proportional to the cost of fuel. Without dramatic changes in fuel prices, dramatic innovations will fail to exist. So yes, slow but ever-progressing change. This will be true so long that fuel prices continually and steadily increase, which is also dependent on demand also doing such.

It would be madness over there if you were paying what we pay for a gallon of 95: $5.32. Of course, it's a completely different scenario over here with most people having diesel autos, huge taxes on fuel and a lot more people taking the well funded and maintained public transit system. Not to mention our limited space. That is the one thing I really miss about the US, s-p-a-c-e!

Anyway, there are many factors acting on the transportation industry. All making it very diverse really, but the biggest determinant will always remain prices at the pump. When those start to change in the only way that they can (up), we will start seeing advances and possibly breakthroughs. It might also be expected that these breakthroughs be introduced by the very same firms which lead the markets as they had, years ago, purchased the patents. But that is of course only hearsay.
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Old 01-01-19, 12:59 PM
  #27  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Not likely are "they" going to "map" variables, like the locations of every other parked or moving vehicle on the road, every wandering animal, jaywalker, child chasing a ball, icy spots, pothole, construction or anything else that isn't permanently attached to the street or road.
Indirectly "they" already do this to a degree, as a steady stream of traffic flow data is fed into Google etc. giving you live updates continuously. As more car cams and sensors etc. come online, we or our cars probably will start to get pretty up to date warnings on potholes, debris, icy spots, etc. and maybe even advance warning on moving hazards detected by other nearby cars.
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Old 01-01-19, 01:01 PM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by Walter S View Post
A quote from them recently says "Even as self-driving research cars make record-setting road trips, fully autonomous vehicles that can legally drive on public roads remain a distant dream." (my emphasis)
.
Don't believe everything you read on the internet, especially when you don't know who the author is.
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Old 01-01-19, 01:18 PM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
Don't believe everything you read on the internet, especially when you don't know who the author is.
Ah but I do know and not only that, I know how the low level electronics work and have 40 years of experience as a firmware developer.
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Old 01-01-19, 01:25 PM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by Walter S View Post
Ah but I do know and not only that, I know how the low level electronics work and have 40 years of experience as a firmware developer.
You know who wrote it? Please tell.
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Old 01-01-19, 01:30 PM
  #31  
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The statement is simply untrue, regardless of the author.
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Old 01-01-19, 01:41 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by jon c. View Post
The statement is simply untrue, regardless of the author.
Exactly.
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Old 01-01-19, 01:58 PM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by cooker View Post
Indirectly "they" already do this to a degree, as a steady stream of traffic flow data is fed into Google etc. giving you live updates continuously.
Totally different technology that involves ZERO v2v communication so this is by no means a leg up.

As more car cams and sensors etc. come online, we or our cars probably will start to get pretty up to date warnings on potholes, debris, icy spots, etc. and maybe even advance warning on moving hazards detected by other nearby cars.
Another thing you won't see very soon. There's no revenue stream to fund putting expensive sensors on cars that can't drive themselves solely for the purpose of warning other cars. And since v2v communication has not even been developed it will require allocating bandwidth thru the FCC etc. The process of establishing the communication protocols will be lengthy and will include significant input/negotiation with all major car manufacturers including no-doubt some international debate as well. The process has barely gotten of the ground as the NHTSA has only initiated a comment-period to begin the process (in 2017) and is still "reviewing" the comments having made no rulings or even tentative positions on resolving the problems raised including privacy concerns etc. that will continue to be debated along with possible opt-out choices for drivers. As always you'll find aggressive people with an agenda or just the desire to get readers telling you it's a couple years off. I think longer myself but probably within a decade.

Last edited by Walter S; 01-01-19 at 02:16 PM.
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Old 01-01-19, 02:01 PM
  #34  
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I can see that I've upset some BF members that want to play in their driverless car sandbox. Please continue kids
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Old 01-01-19, 02:18 PM
  #35  
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Jurassic Park had Driver-less cars..
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Old 01-01-19, 03:01 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by fietsbob View Post
Jurassic Park had Driver-less cars..
Isn't that the movie where the LCD folks in driverless cars were attacked by agents of The Automotive Conspiracy who donned dinosaur costumes to hide their true identity?
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Old 01-01-19, 04:15 PM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Isn't that the movie where the LCD folks in driverless cars were attacked by agents of The Automotive Conspiracy who donned dinosaur costumes to hide their true identity?

At times it is like someone is dreaming about all of these self driving cars and when they wake up they expect them to be a reality. At one time I got caught up in the possibility that self driving cars were close before reality of government restrictions, legal obligations, and the proliferation of lawyers just waiting to sue anyone for anything that might happen because a Self driving care malfunctioned. The technicalities may be massive and places like MIT may publish opinions that we are no where close but that doesn't seem to matter to dreamers.

I might see more EVs in the future but I still don't see people changing that much. How we travel will always be a personal choice. Private or public transportation will be favored by some but not all commuters and the word "mine" will always be one of the first words we hear our children speak.


We live in a society of owners and renters. That is pretty much how it has been for centuries. Uber and Lyft haven't changed those dynamics since their introduction and they are already here. Self driving cars aren't likely to add to mass transit if they ever exist nor will they keep those that are already able to buy a vehicle that they can say, "this is mine," than they do now. At least in my opinion.


Full disclosure here. In college I fell for the Small scooters and motorbikes were going to replace cars and save the US fuel supply. I got on board. 90cc Honda, then a 150cc Honda. Then a 250cc Kawasaki. Then a 650 Yamaha. Then a 750 Kawasaki. Then a 850 Yamaha. America never converted to a massive small motorbike society. I know it may not be relevant but it is my story and I am sticking to it.
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Old 01-01-19, 04:25 PM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
It seems the reason all the big car companies jumped into the autonomous car game was to slow its progress.
OK I came by the gumption to read your rather long and boring article and if anything it supports my argument that the car companies have sobered up about how hard it will REALLY be to produce autonomous vehicles. Nothing in the article supports the idea that they're backing off to intentionally slow progress. What it basically says is that they have not given up because the profit potential is huge but they're also not moving quickly because the problem is very difficult and will take years to solve.

For example this quote sounds kind of like what I've been claiming today...

As with the dot-com bust or other early hiccups for emerging technologies, the outstanding challenges aren’t going to keep driverless cars off the roads forever. The profit potential is too great and the existential threat too serious for carmakers and tech companies to give up. Yet the present “trough of disillusionment” should prompt the industry to take a more realistic look at just how far off the driverless future may be, says Mike Ramsey, an automotive consultant with researcher Gartner Inc. “People have had this really unrealistic view of how fast this really groundbreaking technology can be implemented,” he says. “It’s going to be painfully slow.”
That nor anything else in the article implies any intent to slow progress because their interest in driverless is not genuine as you imply. In fact it basically says car companies want driverless BAD but they're starting to realize that the "final mile" to truly autonomous is going to be a difficult and time consuming goal with implementation nor cost recovery and profits anywhere in the near future.

If you think this article or ANYTHING AT ALL ANYWHERE ON THE INTERNET supports your claim then quote something instead of just paste a URL with rambling discussion that has nothing to do with your statements.
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Old 01-01-19, 04:30 PM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by Mobile 155 View Post
Full disclosure here. In college I fell for the Small scooters and motorbikes were going to replace cars and save the US fuel supply. I got on board. 90cc Honda, then a 150cc Honda. Then a 250cc Kawasaki. Then a 650 Yamaha. Then a 750 Kawasaki. Then a 850 Yamaha. America never converted to a massive small motorbike society. I know it may not be relevant but it is my story and I am sticking to it.
At least you stopped there - I had to have a 1500cc Goldwing
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Old 01-01-19, 04:42 PM
  #40  
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So, industry experts say we are going to have AVs, but not next year ... according to @Walters.

Which @tyrion posted ... in Post #2 . And for those who can't be bothered to read a whole thread, @Machka reiterated in post #11 .

The rest has been chest-thumping and stump-pulling and whatever ... people trying to out-internet-macho one another .... but when pretty much everyone with something to say is saying the same thing ....
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Old 01-01-19, 04:51 PM
  #41  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs View Post
So, industry experts say we are going to have AVs, but not next year ... according to @Walters.

Which @tyrion posted ... in Post #2 . And for those who can't be bothered to read a whole thread, @Machka reiterated in post #11 .

The rest has been chest-thumping and stump-pulling and whatever ... people trying to out-internet-macho one another .... but when pretty much everyone with something to say is saying the same thing ....
What's missing from the thread is direct discussion of whether car companies are slowing progress because they don't really want driverless. That's TPs opening point which remains unsupported by anything other than his well know paranoia about conspiracies.
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Old 01-01-19, 05:24 PM
  #42  
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Originally Posted by Walter S View Post
What's missing from the thread is direct discussion of whether car companies are slowing progress because they don't really want driverless. That's TPs opening point which remains unsupported by anything other than his well know paranoia about conspiracies.
Regardless of what one thinks of the viability of AVs , virtually no one really believes that.

I read only part of the article. It was pushing an opinion without a lot of substance. But no one is intentionally delaying this technology. People are hedging their bets because the reality is no one really knows how widespread it could become and how quickly that could happen. If it moves quickly, none of the current players want to be left behind. If progress is slower, they don't want to be over-committed. We'll see AVs in use this year, but it could be many years before we see a lot of them.
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Old 01-01-19, 05:27 PM
  #43  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
So if self-driving innovations are going to go slow and gradual, the question is how else LCF can find a way around the traffic jam of business dragging its feet.
Are LCF people waiting for driverless cars?? Why?
Or maybe we should just be patient and go back to driving cars until the industry can get around to offering us alternatives. I'm sure that is what they would love us to do.
Why are LCF people going back to driving cars because car companies won't make driverless cars? Before driverless cars were a "thing" it was OK to not own cars but now that the concept of driverless exists, you'll have to go back to driving???
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Old 01-01-19, 05:33 PM
  #44  
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Originally Posted by Walter S View Post
OK I came by the gumption to read your rather long and boring article and if anything it supports my argument that the car companies have sobered up about how hard it will REALLY be to produce autonomous vehicles. Nothing in the article supports the idea that they're backing off to intentionally slow progress. What it basically says is that they have not given up because the profit potential is huge but they're also not moving quickly because the problem is very difficult and will take years to solve.

For example this quote sounds kind of like what I've been claiming today...



That nor anything else in the article implies any intent to slow progress because their interest in driverless is not genuine as you imply. In fact it basically says car companies want driverless BAD but they're starting to realize that the "final mile" to truly autonomous is going to be a difficult and time consuming goal with implementation nor cost recovery and profits anywhere in the near future.

If you think this article or ANYTHING AT ALL ANYWHERE ON THE INTERNET supports your claim then quote something instead of just paste a URL with rambling discussion that has nothing to do with your statements.
I don't need to quote anything that supports my claim. All I am doing is pointing out that the most effective way to discourage people from hoping for change and progress is to tell them you're working on it but it's going to take a long time. If you tell them you're actively working to postpone it as long as possible because you're afraid you'll lose income when it happens, that would give them something to criticize you for. If you want to avoid criticism, you tell them you're working on it and when they complain that it's going too slow, you tell them it's not your fault it's the just the nature of the technological and legal hurdles that the process is very slow.

There's another article about D.C. having the most ambitious energy reform policy currently and when you read what it is, it's a 20 year plan that can easily be changed a lot within the 20 years it will take to achieve it. To me it seems very clear: people want the call for climate action and other change to back off, so they want to give people the idea that progress is being made but it will take time. It's a classic pacification strategy.
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Old 01-01-19, 05:36 PM
  #45  
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Originally Posted by jon c. View Post
We'll see AVs in use this year, but it could be many years before we see a lot of them.
Yes we'll see them "in use" in controlled conditions not on public roads just as we've seen for years.

IMO the first driverless "cars" will be big semi trucks operating driverless only on specific interstates or major highways. People will take that driverless truck to the interstate and tell it to drive itself to the other side of the country ect. where it will go to a prearranged site where another human will guide the truck to its final destination.

Once you see that, you might be within a few years of having your own driverless car.
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Old 01-01-19, 05:39 PM
  #46  
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Originally Posted by Walter S View Post
Are LCF people waiting for driverless cars?? Why?
Because when everyone is liberated from having to own, drive, and park a car everywhere they go, the culture, infrastructure, and urban/retail design will orient toward pedestrians instead of drivers. There will be no need for parking lots in front of stores and businesses and people will just be able to load their purchases in the loading zone and be driven away.

Why are LCF people going back to driving cars because car companies won't make driverless cars? Before driverless cars were a "thing" it was OK to not own cars but now that the concept of driverless exists, you'll have to go back to driving???
There are no 'LCF people.' There are people who bike, walk, take transit, etc. The car companies don't want people thinking there might be driverless ride-sharing soon because they might put off buying a new car and see how driverless ride-sharing is instead.
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Old 01-01-19, 05:46 PM
  #47  
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Originally Posted by tandempower View Post
I don't need to quote anything that supports my claim.
No, but you need a plausible argument that includes a smattering of logic.

All I am doing is pointing out that the most effective way to discourage people from hoping for change and progress is to tell them you're working on it but it's going to take a long time. If you tell them you're actively working to postpone it as long as possible because you're afraid you'll lose income when it happens, that would give them something to criticize you for. If you want to avoid criticism, you tell them you're working on it and when they complain that it's going too slow, you tell them it's not your fault it's the just the nature of the technological and legal hurdles that the process is very slow
More unsupported conspiracy rambings as usual. What's to keep an innovator like Musk from stealing away the car market by developing driverless? You're also forgetting the thousands of engineers that will know the real story on driverless. Are they going to all keep it a secret? What about people like me? If I believed driverless could be done easier than they say I would join in discussion forums etc. and support my case based on analysis and with a valid case I'll be believed. If the legal hurdles are not really difficult then judges and lawyers will weigh in on that and validate it or not.

It's also a bit telling that you're the only person on planet earth that believes this and you have absolutely nothing other fantasies about the car companies real motives to support your claim.

Last edited by Walter S; 01-01-19 at 06:02 PM.
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Old 01-01-19, 05:54 PM
  #48  
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Originally Posted by Walter S View Post
What's missing from the thread is direct discussion of whether car companies are slowing progress because they don't really want driverless. That's TPs opening point which remains unsupported by anything other than his well know paranoia about conspiracies.

Just an opinion but I think the problem is there are far more hands involved than people think in turning self driving cars into reality. Even if the auto manufacturers wanted to they alone cannot solve all of the problems necessary to turn self driving cars into a reality. Nothing I have read indicates they, the manufacturers, are trying to slow the process . If anything there are some opportunities for increased sales because people that cannot drive today would be able to if the cars drove themselves. However there are program related issues that need to be addressed that will take companies outside of traditional automotive manufacturers. Computerization of the systems will take programmers and hardware developers from other industries to do their part as well. Reading from the union of concerned scientists there are ethical issues that will need to be programed into any class five self driving car that haven't as yet been addressed. Like how does the computer determine which human to save when an accident is unavoidable? Who is responsible if the computer freezes? I have both apple and Microsoft and there are programs that cause both to freeze or for a time become non responsive.


In reality we can be assured that whatever the topic of the OP was it was intended to digress into pavement and trees and living the life of a poor person to save the planet. IMHO
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Old 01-01-19, 06:25 PM
  #49  
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Originally Posted by Mobile 155 View Post
Reading from the union of concerned scientists there are ethical issues that will need to be programed into any class five self driving car that haven't as yet been addressed. Like how does the computer determine which human to save when an accident is unavoidable?
These were addressed decades ago. Not resolved, but tech people and philosophers have been talking about things like the Trolley Problem for decades.

These are difficult, thorny issues; and legislation, legal cases, and public opinion will shape their exploration.

But soon (within 10 years) computer driven cars will be demonstrably safer than human driven cars, and there will be solid evidence of that. At this point ethical considerations will strongly favor self-driving cars.
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Old 01-01-19, 06:33 PM
  #50  
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Originally Posted by Walter S View Post
Yes we'll see them "in use" in controlled conditions not on public roads just as we've seen for years.
No, I mean in use on public streets. That will happen this year. Not a fleet or a widespread service perhaps, but someone will roll a driverless vehicle on public roads.
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