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What's next? After gravel, what's the NEXT BIG THING?

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Cyclocross and Gravelbiking (Recreational) This has to be the most physically intense sport ever invented. It's high speed bicycle racing on a short off road course or riding the off pavement rides on gravel like :The Dirty Kanza". We also have a dedicated Racing forum for the Cyclocross Hard Core Racers.

What's next? After gravel, what's the NEXT BIG THING?

Old 08-02-19, 03:11 PM
  #51  
Abe_Froman
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Originally Posted by FlashBazbo View Post
2018 bike sales in Germany . . . 23.5% of all bike sales were e-bikes. 980,000 e-bikes sold in 2018 in Germany alone.

https://www.bike-eu.com/sales-trends...833.1564779717
Are we talking Germany, the US, or worldwide? There are going to be drastically different answers for each IMO.
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Old 08-02-19, 03:16 PM
  #52  
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Originally Posted by 79pmooney View Post
My hope - grass track racing. Won't sell a ton of bikes but could be a life changer for many. (I'd love to see inner city kids racing $600 Fuji track bikes on vacant lots. Another Nelson Vails?)

Ben
I posted this a week ago. You might enjoy it...

Interesting article about track training on a grass "velodrome" in Kansas.

https://www.velonews.com/2019/07/new...lodrome_497324

Goes back to an interesting quote:
"On the national level, USA Cycling is looking to expand access. “We have 330 million people and we have a hard time finding 20 exceptional riders to come and race on track,” Jeff Pierce, Director of Elite Athletics, Road and Track at USA Cycling, says. “They’re out there for sure. One of our issues is our lack of tracks.”

This is one way to discover new talent...
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Old 08-02-19, 03:18 PM
  #53  
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The Guardian is reporting that e-bikes are now out-selling regular bikes in the Netherlands.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...es-netherlands
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Old 08-02-19, 03:38 PM
  #54  
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Originally Posted by Abe_Froman View Post
I don't see it happening.

E bikes are expensive. I think e bikes are the ultimate niche bike. There will never be enough people interested in them to be the next 'thing.'
But e-bikes are cheaper than cars. Those that can transition from cars to e-bikes will save a lot of money. Those that can't afford a car might be able to afford an e-bike.
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Old 08-02-19, 03:50 PM
  #55  
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Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
But e-bikes are cheaper than cars. Those that can transition from cars to e-bikes will save a lot of money. Those that can't afford a car might be able to afford an e-bike.
And regular bikes are even cheaper than e-bikes. And skateboards are cheaper than regular bikes..and shoes are even cheaper than skateboards.

Yet, I havent seen any mass exodus from the ranks of vehicle drivers towards cycling (or skateboarding, or walking...).

The deck is stacked against cycling as a form of transportation in the US in a lot of ways. City design (huge areas of suburbs, with large distances to travel). Lack of cycling infrastructure. Poor weather across much of the country. This is without getting into the cultural and political impediments to cycling gaining traction here, that don't exist to the same extent in many areas overseas.

I think the next 'thing' will be another niche category of enthusiast cycling. Maybe the next big thing will be 'Mulch.' Or Pea Gravel.
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Old 08-02-19, 04:27 PM
  #56  
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Originally Posted by Abe_Froman View Post
And regular bikes are even cheaper than e-bikes. And skateboards are cheaper than regular bikes..and shoes are even cheaper than skateboards.

Yet, I havent seen any mass exodus from the ranks of vehicle drivers towards cycling (or skateboarding, or walking...).
No one is making a claim of mass exodus. But e-bikes fill a niche (cheaper than cars, greater range than walking, less physically demanding than regular bikes).
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Old 08-02-19, 04:50 PM
  #57  
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Originally Posted by Abe_Froman View Post
I don't see it happening.

E bikes are expensive. I think e bikes are the ultimate niche bike. There will never be enough people interested in them to be the next 'thing.'
Loads of e-Bikes under $1,000. The bulk of the market falls into a segment from $1,500 to $2,000. Sure, if you're only looking at Specialized, e-Bikes are expensive.

People who think even $500 is simply too much for a "pedal bike" don't even blink at $1,000 for a bike with an electric motor on it. Like it or not, e-Bikes are absolutely here to stay.
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Old 08-02-19, 05:15 PM
  #58  
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Originally Posted by DrIsotope View Post
Loads of e-Bikes under $1,000. The bulk of the market falls into a segment from $1,500 to $2,000. Sure, if you're only looking at Specialized, e-Bikes are expensive.

People who think even $500 is simply too much for a "pedal bike" don't even blink at $1,000 for a bike with an electric motor on it. Like it or not, e-Bikes are absolutely here to stay.
Oh no doubt, I dont see them going away.

I just the market for then is going to have a fairly low ceiling.

I think the bulk of customers for ebikes will be taken from moped sales. And even then it will be narrowed down further to people who have/had mopeds, AND have a concern about the environment.

I see an enormous amount of overlap between mopeds and ebikes in terms of use, convenience, cost, utility. Except in most cases...a moped will be better at those things.

Last edited by Abe_Froman; 08-02-19 at 05:20 PM.
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Old 08-02-19, 05:22 PM
  #59  
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Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
No one is making a claim of mass exodus. But e-bikes fill a niche (cheaper than cars, greater range than walking, less physically demanding than regular bikes).
Agreed. But IMO thats a pretty narrow niche. And its got competition. See the moped comment.
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Old 08-03-19, 01:04 AM
  #60  
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Originally Posted by tyrion View Post
No one is making a claim of mass exodus. But e-bikes fill a niche (cheaper than cars, greater range than walking, less physically demanding than regular bikes).
but I can buy a used Honda PCX 150 for the same price of an E-bike with an unlimited range, and less physically demanding than an E bike even. along with the ability to travel with the flow of traffic on anything but an interstate.

too me a scooter makes way more sens than an E-bike, outside of being able to park it on a side walk, not needing insurance, motorcycle endorsement/driver license
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Old 08-03-19, 01:16 AM
  #61  
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Beach cruiser TT's
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Old 08-05-19, 07:56 AM
  #62  
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And don't forget the "my license is suspended, so I can't drive" market. Any reasonably priced motor-assisted vehicle (e-bike) that doesn't require a valid drivers license is golden. (Clearly, the Specialized e-bike isn't aimed at this market. If you've got that kind of money, you just hire a daily uber.) I could see e-bikes killing off MTB sales among the suspended license crowd.
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Old 08-05-19, 11:18 AM
  #63  
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Originally Posted by FlashBazbo View Post
I couldn't bring myself to put this in the first post. But . . . urp . . . gag . . . uhmp . . . you don't think it's e-bikes, do you? They're going big in Europe. (On the whole, I'd rather ride a Honda.)
Norway is confronting the issue this summer in protected areas in its national parks. E-bike riders have been turned away on the basis that they're operating motor vehicles, not pedal bicycles (which are permitted).
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Old 08-05-19, 12:58 PM
  #64  
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I never heard of “gravel bike” till recently
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Old 08-05-19, 03:15 PM
  #65  
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Originally Posted by Rides4Beer View Post
My club does a monthly TT series through the summer, it's great, we usually get around 65 people.




Every area is going to be different, but there are some pretty serious guys crushing gravel around here, retired/current Pro/Cat1 guys, etc.. Cycling is already big here, and the gravel scene is picking up. I'm sure a lot of people will just cruise on their gravel bike, just like a lot of people with Jeeps never get them dirty. When I bought my gravel bike, I made a deal with myself, if I was going to spend the money, I had to ride gravel every week. So far, so good (except for last weekend, because it's in the shop for a caliper replacement).

Personally, I love riding gravel, if I could do it every day, I would. Less traffic, get into nature, can still ride fast and cover a lot of ground.
I think I live where you live. Where are the best places to ride gravel? I just moved here last year and all my gravel rides so far have been at DuPont.
Thanks.
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Old 08-05-19, 03:34 PM
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"Pebble bikes"

Thats the next big thing.
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Old 08-05-19, 03:43 PM
  #67  
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And there's already an ad jingle written for them:

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Old 08-05-19, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Lemond1985 View Post
...jingle written...
I wish we lived in a world where people had the attention span for a 12 min jingle.

tldl
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Old 08-05-19, 04:52 PM
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Monster cross.
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Old 08-05-19, 05:02 PM
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Originally Posted by shoota View Post
95% of the time I still don't know why anyone would want to ride gravel roads given the choice.
not having to worry about cars is pretty big plus
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Old 08-05-19, 05:20 PM
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"So . . . what's next? What cycling segment will be next to see a resurgence? Or, what yet-to-be-widespread new cycling idea is going to become the "next big thing?" What do you think? Where are all the early adopters going now?"

Unicycles!! Get on it now, before it's the next big thing!
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Old 08-05-19, 05:54 PM
  #72  
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Originally Posted by dgodave View Post
"Pebble bikes"

Thats the next big thing.
I'm already on it!

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Old 08-05-19, 06:13 PM
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Originally Posted by chas58 View Post
I posted this a week ago. You might enjoy it...

Interesting article about track training on a grass "velodrome" in Kansas.

https://www.velonews.com/2019/07/new...lodrome_497324

Goes back to an interesting quote:
"On the national level, USA Cycling is looking to expand access. “We have 330 million people and we have a hard time finding 20 exceptional riders to come and race on track,” Jeff Pierce, Director of Elite Athletics, Road and Track at USA Cycling, says. “They’re out there for sure. One of our issues is our lack of tracks.”

This is one way to discover new talent...
Thanks for posting this...had never heard of grass track racing, but it sounds like a blast. This could do so well in Kansas (and most of the Midwest for that matter) since the capital outlay is minimal, and there is no shortage of flat grassland.
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Old 08-05-19, 06:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Chi_Z View Post
not having to worry about cars is pretty big plus
I totally understand what you're saying. It's still a pretty blanket statement that isn't entirely true, at least for some people.

My experience is that while I encounter more cars on the road, I encounter more personal, intense interactions on gravel.

Case in point: I've never had a gun pulled on me on the road, I have on gravel.

I've never been bitten/attacked/taken out by a dog on the road, I have on gravel (and almost everyone I ride with has. Not true for road.)

I've never known a single roadie that packs heat. I know several gravel riders that do. That can't be coincidence.

Anyway, "not having to worry" about cars is well and good but it's not cars that I worry about, it's the sh*tbums driving them out in the middle of nowhere that can't been seen or tracked that I worry about.
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Old 08-05-19, 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by FlashBazbo View Post
Against my better judgment, I tend to be an early adopter. I was doing gravel back when Dirty Kanza had fewer than 100 entrants and nobody seemed to know what gravel was. Gravel bikers were seen as rather odd by all other cyclists. Roadies couldn't imagine why anyone would WANT to ride on dirt and gravel roads. For years, nobody had a clue that gravel cycling would become the NEXT BIG THING. (I thought it was popular, in part, because it WASN'T a big thing!)

But now, the sales wave is peaking, the fad is in full force, and everybody from road cyclists to MTBers to triathletes is talking about riding gravel. (But how many gravel bike buyers will actually ever ride a dirt or gravel road?) There's a major manufacturer new gravel product introduction just about every week. The gravel segment has become the mainstream and even traditional road race bikes are feeling threatened. But even this mania won't last forever.

So . . . what's next? What cycling segment will be next to see a resurgence? Or, what yet-to-be-widespread new cycling idea is going to become the "next big thing?" What do you think? Where are all the early adopters going now?
Seems like bikepacking is gaining popularity where I live. People want to get away with their friends and enjoy the outdoors.
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