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Living car free, 5 year predictions

Old 02-04-18, 01:32 AM
  #1601  
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Originally Posted by tandempower
I wouldn't be surprised if all (driverless) cars are outfitted with servers/routers that function as an internet relay system between vehicles. Really, the internet was designed as a protocol for automatically rerouting signals whenever one or more servers would go offline. With vehicles in a tunnel or elsewhere, the ones that can get a good signal from an antenna should be able to relay that signal to other vehicles that can't. Basically the cars would work as extensions and amplifiers of the antennas.
Will they read road signs that say "Road out. Follow detour"?
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Old 02-04-18, 01:35 AM
  #1602  
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Originally Posted by Walter S
I don't think it will go quite like that myself. With the internet you have a gateway server at a specific IP address that forwards your message to its destination. But with driverless cars intercommunicating you have a network where the participants keep changing and the communication is with other cars in your immediate area rather than a specific gateway at a remote location. Internet-style routing just won't work because your car won't know the address of local vehicles and it would be too slow to communicate with them individually anyway. So I think it will be more of a situation where each car broadcasts information about its position/direction/speed continually. Other cars in the area receive these broadcast messages and are thus informed.

It's not a simple matter to avoid having broadcasts that stomp on each other. But there's actually already a IEEE standard for this that will probably apply well to driverless cars (802.11p). But here too, you have security concerns with people trying to hack the car network. The timing requirements for exchange of data at high speed as cars zoom around coming into and out of range don't facilitate traditional authentication techniques. So there may be all kinds of neat traffic control/optimization techniques that we'll simply shy away from for fear of hacking.

An intrusion detection system against malicious attacks on the communication network of driverless cars - IEEE Conference Publication
Are there also concerns about the carrying capacity of these radio networks? Will they handle 100,000 cars on a L.A. freeway at rush hour when a truck jackknifes in the number 3 lane?
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Old 02-04-18, 03:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Roody
Are there also concerns about the carrying capacity of these radio networks? Will they handle 100,000 cars on a L.A. freeway at rush hour when a truck jackknifes in the number 3 lane?
Yes. The communication is with vehicles that are all within only a few hundred meters. For the most part it doesn't matter what else is beyond that distance.

Last edited by Walter S; 02-04-18 at 04:14 AM.
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Old 02-04-18, 04:12 AM
  #1604  
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Based on human history I can pretty much assure everyone that every problem we have imagined, and more, have long since been imagined by the people who ALREADY HAVE WORKING AI CARS ON THE ROAD, and have for hundreds of thousands of miles.

Pretty long way to bashing something with a rock to being able to open a person's chest, remove the heart, and replace it with another. Think maybe there were a few issues to resolve? Nowadays we have surgeons operating remotely via the internet. No biggie.

We seem not to grasp the things we have proven able to do.

As one poster noted, we are using tiny computers made by many different corporations over a span of years and all able to communicate, surf the web (Just think about that---we could never have a billion different computers in a hundred different languages if two hundred different countries all communicate---while in cars" we say while using our cell phones to do just that ... to such a degree that it as actually a hazard we all complain about. Cognizant disconnect, much?)

Are there problems? Difficulties and unresolved issue, to be sure. Is it complicated? People wouldn't be spending billions and years io it if it were simple.

But based on what we have done in just the past few years --DONE--not imagined or are aware of or denied---as Walter notes, the main problems are commercial and social.

People either want, or don't want, or are neutral regarding AI cars .... and all these tens of thousands of words wasted in a supposed 'examination" of the topic is really just a poll with A,B, or C.
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Old 02-04-18, 04:46 AM
  #1605  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
Based on human history I can pretty much assure everyone that every problem we have imagined, and more, have long since been imagined by the people who ALREADY HAVE WORKING AI CARS ON THE ROAD, and have for hundreds of thousands of miles.

Pretty long way to bashing something with a rock to being able to open a person's chest, remove the heart, and replace it with another. Think maybe there were a few issues to resolve? Nowadays we have surgeons operating remotely via the internet. No biggie.

We seem not to grasp the things we have proven able to do.

As one poster noted, we are using tiny computers made by many different corporations over a span of years and all able to communicate, surf the web (Just think about that---we could never have a billion different computers in a hundred different languages if two hundred different countries all communicate---while in cars" we say while using our cell phones to do just that ... to such a degree that it as actually a hazard we all complain about. Cognizant disconnect, much?)

Are there problems? Difficulties and unresolved issue, to be sure. Is it complicated? People wouldn't be spending billions and years io it if it were simple.

But based on what we have done in just the past few years --DONE--not imagined or are aware of or denied---as Walter notes, the main problems are commercial and social.

People either want, or don't want, or are neutral regarding AI cars .... and all these tens of thousands of words wasted in a supposed 'examination" of the topic is really just a poll with A,B, or C.
Personally I'm not one to be especially optimistic about solving arbitrary technical problems based on doing amazing things in the past. Each problem has its own unique characteristics. Some problems might seem at least achievable but in fact have no practical solution because of inherent complexities, the laws of physics, etc.

OTOH in the case of driverless cars people are not spending huge sums of money on the idea for no good reason. Billionaires have lots of money for a reason and they invariably want their billions to grow and won't casually invest heavily without compelling proof-of-concept. Driverless will not only happen, it's already happening in environments that are more controlled than the public road network. Getting from where they are now to that is a matter of additional refinement to existing technology and the economies of scale that make it affordable. Inevitable IMO.

I'm personally a software engineer since the 1970s with lots of experience developing microprocessor controlled embedded systems. Driverless cars are certainly among the most complex of those but the issues are dropping away quickly. When I look at the state of the technology today, I see technology that is well beyond a prototype, not ready for deployment, but definitely headed that way.
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Old 02-04-18, 06:25 AM
  #1606  
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Originally Posted by Walter S
Personally I'm not one to be especially optimistic about solving arbitrary technical problems based on doing amazing things in the past. Each problem has its own unique characteristics. Some problems might seem at least achievable but in fact have no practical solution because of inherent complexities, the laws of physics, etc.

OTOH in the case of driverless cars people are not spending huge sums of money on the idea for no good reason. Billionaires have lots of money for a reason and they invariably want their billions to grow and won't casually invest heavily without compelling proof-of-concept. Driverless will not only happen, it's already happening in environments that are more controlled than the public road network. Getting from where they are now to that is a matter of additional refinement to existing technology and the economies of scale that make it affordable. Inevitable IMO.

I'm personally a software engineer since the 1970s with lots of experience developing microprocessor controlled embedded systems. Driverless cars are certainly among the most complex of those but the issues are dropping away quickly. When I look at the state of the technology today, I see technology that is well beyond a prototype, not ready for deployment, but definitely headed that way.
How will all this affect living car free? As cyclists will we be safer, or will there be another round of attempts to get us off the road? Will we be required to plug into the system with transponders as suggested earlier? Will people drive less because there is less need to own a car, or drive more because it is easier and less stressful?

And most important to us northerners, will there still be road hockey?
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Old 02-04-18, 06:54 AM
  #1607  
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Originally Posted by cooker
How will all this affect living car free? As cyclists will we be safer, or will there be another round of attempts to get us off the road? Will we be required to plug into the system with transponders as suggested earlier? Will people drive less because there is less need to own a car, or drive more because it is easier and less stressful?

And most important to us northerners, will there still be road hockey?
It's so difficult to say. I see what seem like compelling arguments for this or that outcome one day only to have that refuted by other credible arguments to the contrary that discuss subtle factors not previously well considered. A case in point is to consider how pedestrians will interact with driverless cars and what the outcome of that will be. The argument goes, that pedestrians will cripple driverless cars without significant changes to infrastructure. Today when a pedestrian walks across the street they are wise to exercise a lot of caution. Pedestrians have the right of way but won't walk willy nilly into a busy intersection for fear that all but the most cautious driver might wipe them out. But once pedestrians observe and develop confidence in the consistently attentive driverless car will they care at all about stepping into traffic? After all if your trajectory has you steadily approaching the road driverless cars will slow down and emergency-stop as necessary to avoid you. Why worry? Does this end up being a big impediment to flowing car traffic? In some areas this might simply parallelize cars. At one extreme would be thousands of people getting out of a sporting event etc. They wait for traffic signals to give them walk-indications now. Why wait when you know driverless cars won't hit you anyway? The same effect is there even in much smaller numbers. Yes there's jay walking laws but those are hard to enforce in big numbers.

I'm not real optimistic on the impact to LCF. Since ride sharing will bring down the cost of using driverless cars there will probably be a lot of that. You might even be able to own your own car but still let it leave the house and go earn you some cash while you don't need to go somewhere. Rather than sitting at home in somebody's driveway then, the cars are always out on the road consuming a footprint in the available space for motorized traffic (assuming demand of course). If driverless is cheap per mile and available within minutes or less where you can for example summon a car when you get into the checkout at the grocery store, the total amount of traffic out there could go up a lot. That won't have a nice effect for LCF.
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Old 02-04-18, 08:10 AM
  #1608  
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Originally Posted by tmac100
And this statement (opinion) is based on what reliable (aka factual) evidence that we can all read for ourselves??
I've met so many liars who defend their lies by demanding proof when you suspect them of lying. All I said is that I suspect people of being biased against driverless cars and allowing their bias to influence their analysis, but I don't need to prove it to make it true. If it's true and people are lying about it, it is still true. It's that simple.
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Old 02-04-18, 08:16 AM
  #1609  
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Thanks for clarifying. Time (for me) to move on and read more "substance" ...
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Old 02-04-18, 08:22 AM
  #1610  
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Originally Posted by Walter S
Once again, no need for any scrolling thru a pallet etc. The technology already exists and is simpler and more elegant than that. What are you talking about?? Why are you trying to solve a problem that already has simpler solutions than you propose?
Because you or some others said that the technology is likely to be insufficient, so I was trying to think of ways that it would ultimately work, which I think it will.

It's ironic that you think I'm biased against the technology with respect to this particular point where I'm arguing that the technology exists already (intercar communication) and you're trying to figure out how to make it work.
Weren't you saying it would be too vulnerable to hacking and that all the trees would have to be cleared to prevent signal blackouts? I read that as fear-mongering/alarmism basically implying that environmentalists should oppose driverless cars or that we should avoid implementing driverless cars in submission to the potential of terrorism.

As to self driving in general, yes I continue to believe that its adoption on public roads will be much slower than most of the hype I see on the subject. The problems with self driving cars have very little to do with whether or not they could intercommunicate. THAT problem is easy and there's already a formal IEEE standard for it in place (802.11p) (the "p" is for specific ammendments made for intercar communication).
I am quite suspicious of all the developments in self-driving technology currently. Of course I think some are truly geared toward hastening implementation, but I think others are subtle tactics to delay and/or obstruct developments and/or divert investors away from funding developments that will hasten the transition and make many driver-oriented technologies obsolete in the process.
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Old 02-04-18, 11:39 AM
  #1611  
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Originally Posted by Roody
Will they read road signs that say "Road out. Follow detour"?
I'm sure the road signs will broadcast their message on a designated frequency that will ensure the cars get the message, and if they re-broadcast and amplify it, then the message should filter back through the traffic the way brake lights filter back as drivers see braking in front of them and respond in kind.
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Old 02-04-18, 12:51 PM
  #1612  
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Originally Posted by Walter S
Pedestrians have the right of way but won't walk willy nilly into a busy intersection for fear that all but the most cautious driver might wipe them out. But once pedestrians observe and develop confidence in the consistently attentive driverless car will they care at all about stepping into traffic? After all if your trajectory has you steadily approaching the road driverless cars will slow down and emergency-stop as necessary to avoid you. Why worry?
Photo proof of jaywalking, and serious fines. The cars will have cameras, we already know that. There is your smiling face walking across a road knowing cars will stop. Then there is your less smiling face in your mugshot.

As for LCF .... no real impact. People won't ride bikes then for the same reason the won't now--it is work. Plus it is slow and dirty. Plus, for the uninitiated and un-dedicated it is unreliable.

But mostly because it is work.

I can go to my Honda any time, even after it has sat for nine months, and drive away just like I parked it ten minutes ago.

I had a flat on my ride this morning. Trust me, people want to get in and drive off. They do Not want to stop on the side of the road and change a tube.

Plus, people don't like to sweat.

What I expect to see is a growth in electric-assist bikes and a variety of scooters.

Eventually I also expect to see cars like the Helio for personal transport, and a variety of hybrid micro-minivans. Cars will become less a symbol of status for the masses (and more so for the wealthy) and practicality will win the day.

Most people will own or more likely rent driverless cars. More transit will be from rail hubs, because cars will be available at both ends, and the big issues caused by downtown parking will be eliminated because commuters can send their cars away to the local recharge/upkeep storage facility, and order up a new one at the end of the day. (I hope.)

Fleets of citicars like the Helio or scooters for places where the weather permits could also be available on demand,
for lower-cost vehicle rental for people going to lunch or wanting a quick lift across town. (though the "scooters" might be trikes with windshields and plastic bubbles--and autopilots.)

But LCF? So long as the bicycle is a human powered device No. People don't want to spend their energy that way ... or they would already be riding.

We live in a world where people will circle the parking lot three times to find a place to park closer to the entrance of the gym ... and not just when it is raining, Every time. I used to go to the gym daily, I saw it.

Those are not people who want to ride bikes for transport.
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Old 02-04-18, 04:12 PM
  #1613  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs
We live in a world where people will circle the parking lot three times to find a place to park closer to the entrance of the gym ... and not just when it is raining, Every time. I used to go to the gym daily, I saw it.

Those are not people who want to ride bikes for transport.
Maybe not, but the question is whether the culture of going to a gym to avoid exercising outside isn't due to the simple mental habit of using a single mode, driving, for transportation and not overweighing other options. There is a certain simplicity in knowing that if you have to go somewhere, you have to drive there. Overweighing other options complicates things, makes it more difficult to estimate time-scheduling, etc. I ride a bike almost exclusively for this reason, but I like to walk when I'm not worried about conserving time for any reason.

When people get used to using driverless ride-sharing services all the time, it will force them to think about time in a different way. They will know more-or-less how long it takes to catch a ride and get to a destination. As the software/tracking of prospective rides gets better, it will be easier to coordinate short walks with rides in a way that is more time-efficient. I meet many people who are already skilled with using transit apps in this way, but I've yet to master the art of real-time transit 'surfing' because I have a pretty old phone that isn't compatible with many apps and I don't like downloading them anyway, because they use up battery life faster.

Anyway, to sum up, the exciting thing about driverless cars/rides is how they will alter the standard approach to time/travel management. Instead of mindlessly going through the routine of getting your car, driving it to your destination, parking it, and walking from the parking spot to the door; you can put your creativity to use in more ways than just driving around a parking lot hunting for the best spot.(even if you're not car-free)
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Old 02-04-18, 05:13 PM
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Originally Posted by tandempower
...I've yet to master the art of real-time transit 'surfing' because I have a pretty old phone that isn't compatible with many apps and I don't like downloading them anyway, because they use up battery life faster.

Anyway, to sum up, the exciting thing about driverless cars/rides is how they will alter the standard approach to time/travel management. Instead of mindlessly going through the routine of getting your car, driving it to your destination, parking it, and walking from the parking spot to the door; you can put your creativity to use in more ways than just driving around a parking lot hunting for the best spot.(even if you're not car-free)
You'll need a new phone if you want in on all that creative opportunity.
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Old 02-05-18, 01:24 AM
  #1615  
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Originally Posted by Maelochs

People either want, or don't want, or are neutral regarding AI cars .... and all these tens of thousands of words wasted in a supposed 'examination" of the topic is really just a poll with A,B, or C.
I don't think anybody has a delusion that we'll solve these problems or even have any psychic skills for making predictions. It's just an interesting topic--for those who are interested in it. If you really think it's a waste of words, I have to wonder what's wrong with you for participating.
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Old 02-05-18, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Roody
I don't think anybody has a delusion that we'll solve these problems or even have any psychic skills for making predictions. It's just an interesting topic--for those who are interested in it. If you really think it's a waste of words, I have to wonder what's wrong with you for participating.
I enjoy seeing people both insult others and feel superior about it.

hard to see how someone could be a "better" person while also putting down someones else ...but .....

For instance ...you could have said "I wonder why you participate." But no ... to feel you got one up on me, you had to put me down. Sorry about Your problem.

I don't have to wonder what is wrong with you, that you feel the need to demean people ...
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Old 02-05-18, 06:46 PM
  #1617  
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Originally Posted by cooker
You'll need a new phone if you want in on all that creative opportunity.
When the opportunities available are attractive enough to warrant it, I'm sure investing in a new phone will seem worth it.
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Old 02-06-18, 12:57 AM
  #1618  
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Originally Posted by Roody
Will they read road signs that say "Road out. Follow detour"?

Never worked for that coyote.
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Old 02-06-18, 01:28 PM
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Guys,

It's time to go ride your bikes and sing Kumbaya.
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Old 02-12-18, 03:49 PM
  #1620  
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Soviets had 5 year plans.
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Old 02-12-18, 05:29 PM
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Originally Posted by fietsbob
Soviets had 5 year plans.
We're not planning, we're predicting. Or at least, that is what I wanted...
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Old 02-12-18, 05:54 PM
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I abandoned my last car in 1991..
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Old 02-12-18, 06:33 PM
  #1623  
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Originally Posted by fietsbob
Soviets had 5 year plans.
Originally Posted by cooker
We're not planning, we're predicting. Or at least, that is what I wanted...
What is the implication? That everyone should avoid talking about the future in any way lest it turn into totalitarian central planning?
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Old 02-12-18, 11:35 PM
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Originally Posted by tandempower
What is the implication? That everyone should avoid talking about the future in any way lest it turn into totalitarian central planning?
People can talk about whatever they want, but in this particular thread I would prefer we discuss 5 year predictions, as per the thread title.
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Old 02-13-18, 07:08 AM
  #1625  
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Originally Posted by cooker
People can talk about whatever they want, but in this particular thread I would prefer we discuss 5 year predictions, as per the thread title.
Sorry, I was responding to the other two posts.
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