DannoXYZ 

One of the girls on the UCSB cycling team said to me once, "I'd love to race, but I want to practice on my own until I know I can win a race before I enter.". Well, she came out for training rides for 2-years straight and never entered a race. The other girls trained for 2-3 months and got started the very 1st season. They got dropped in their first 5-8 races. Many crashed, some broken bikes, arms and legs. Some dropped out. And many of them ended their 1st season with numerous 1st-5th place finishes. The girl who wanted to do it all offline? She never entered a race and never got beyond training rides because she couldn't be assured perfection.

Only way to learn and improve is to get out there and do it. Many newbies think it's all about fitness; common misconception. A certain fitness-level is a requirement and a given, everyone can hold 20mph for hours on end. However, what separates those who drop out within 1-lap and those who win is the mental strategies learned hands-on in training-rides, practice-races and actual racing. You simply cannot learn the following without actually doing it:

1. drafting 6-10" behind rider ahead
2. holding a line through corner, elbow-to-elbow with riders on your left & right
3. learning to pick out the strong riders and weeding out the weaker ones
4. learning how to hold a wheel when the pace varies, 15->45mph spurts aren't uncommon
5. hopping onto a lead-out train
6. leap-frogging from wheel-to-wheel in the finishing sprint
7. fending off 250-lb linebackers trying to shove you off their teammate's wheel in a sprint

These factors contribute to like 99% of the outcome of your race. The "terrain" you need to conquer isn't the course or how fast you can do it. It's learning about the pack, the people within and how to respond to their actions. Fitness and average-speed is irrelevant. What's more important is being able to go from 200-watts continuous output to 1200-1500 watts instantaneously and being able to hold it for +15 seconds. Then recover within 10-seconds and doing it all over again , and again.

In the 4s, I used to take off from the start and get up to 30-mph in about 5-seconds and hold it for the entire 1st lap. Doesn't matter if you can average 20mph or 24mph for hours on end, if you can't accelerate that fast and hold 30-mph for a minute, you're shelled and gonna get pulled on your very 1st lap.

spectastic

I can see myself making bigger improvements, now that I've decided to ride on a daily basis, and discipline myself to reach small benchmarks. Like today, I went out and set a goal of 20.5 for 20 miles, and I was able do do get above 21, once I got to the smooth roads on the interstate on my way back. I'm also going to do what you said: sustaining high speeds for 30 seconds or so, maybe eventually a minute. keeping 30 mph on flats is on the agenda, as soon as I can REAch 30... I'm not saying I won't have any off days when the wind's blowing, and I end up with a 18-19 avg, but the goal right now is to get in the habit, set small benchmarks, and eat lots and lots spaghetti.

There's a group ride tomorrow, and I'll see if I can drive over there.. My boss said he might go on Thursday, so at least I might see someone I know. sht, I'm so glad I'm out of school. School was so stressful for me. I was on the emailing list for the cycling club for months, but never got the chance to go on ONE ride. But anyway, thanks for the insight.

FPSDavid

Who the hell are these "everyone"'s?

Dan333SP

I don't get what the big deal is about not wanting to embarrass yourself in your first race. I see so many posts about that... Let's be honest, no one cares except you, and you can use the frustration of getting dropped/lapped/pulled as fuel for future interval sessions. I worried for months about my first race and I ended up realizing it was like everyone says... a fast group ride with a hard sprint at the end. I didn't get dropped, but the people that did certainly weren't laughed at, no one cared. It's bike racing, none of us are going pro, so why worry?

Nick Bain

you seem to miss a lot of things.

Nick Bain

I don't think your reason for racing is good enough, it is also evident in the way you speak, that you really don't have a strong desire to race.

You will have much more fun at club rides and non competitive events (judging by your internet personality). If you just want to try racing that is fine, but you should jsut stfu and do it. Or find a yes DROP group ride. Good luck.

spectastic

look who's talking.

laserfj

Not sure what you're trying to say there...

halfspeed

You still don't seem to get it.

hhnngg1

I'm not going to comment about how 'race ready' the OP is, but I can say for sure that you tell me what you solo ride average time is and add a decent estimate of the elevation profile, and I'll have a really good estimate of exactly how strong a solo rider you are for time trials and solo rides.

DaveWC

Ok. Flat ride, 289f elevation gain, solo ride, 14.5 miles, 18mph. How strong am I?

canam73

So if I tell you how good of a solo rider I am you will be able to estimate how good of a solo rider I am.

What did you get on the SAT again?

bikerjp

Actually, you don't get it. I said it's NOT a good metric. However, from a non-racing standpoint if you like to track your average speed over a given course it can be useful to see if you are improving your own fitness with respect to that course. That's all I'm saying. If you disagree with that fine. It works for me. I'm faster than I was on routes I do a lot.

LowCel 

31.1 miles
1,490 feet elevation gain
15.1 mph average

What will this person average in a 20k time trial with very slight rollers (308 feet elevation gain)?

spectastic

What's my fitness if I can bike up 100% grade with hurricane wind blowing in my face, and a freaking parachute flapping in the wind, and I manage to average -10 mph? Seriously... we're talking about riding on flats, on a windless day. Aside from how ****ty the road is, how much variability is there?

bikerjp

For fun, I played around with this watts calculator. Obviously we don't have all the data, such as how typical the given ride is, or the rider (i.e. weight) so I assumed a 175 lb rider and 18 lb bike and a typical ride. It spit out a 139 watt average so I played with the numbers for the 20K until I got a similar average and it came out to 45 mins and a 16.7 mph average. Assuming someone would ride a short, flat-ish TT a bit harder, I chose a totally made up, though perhaps reasonable, 38 minutes and a 19.7 mph average. Am I in the ballpark?

rkwaki

Ok I am a self admitted d-bag but if there is one thing I love it is to see new racers and interest by those who want to race.
Rather than me post up some of my sarcastic response comments my advice is just try it. Don't listen to others. I posted something last week regarding weight training and one d-bag on here posted this:

"1) Anecdotes are not data so anything following an I really isn't relevant. 2) I don't see your point. You stopped riding and when you came back you were slow. What are we supposed to take from that?"

Point being you need some encouragement so just do it but don't ask questions about average speed. Apparently to the person who responded to my post I am slow, ok thanks for that input (National Caliber Cat 1, FTP in excess of 400, etc) you must really know what you are talking about.
Come to the racing forum, be open to criticism and learn as much as you can.

slowride454

I think we need to take into account the additional wind resistance from your HUGE head/ego. what you are using as a gauge means nothing. I have a buddy who is over 300 pounds who can do what you do on flats. put a hill in front of him and it's all over.

LowCel 

Close.

https://app.strava.com/activities/11052024

Ooompa Loompa

That sounds a lot like the rides I do 2 or 3 times a week. Elevation gain, distance and speed fit me almost perfectly. I wouldn't even dream of trying to do a TT at my skill level. I'd get laughed off the course.

On a side note I love lurking in the 33. I've never raced, and not sure that I ever will, but there is tons of solid info there even if you don't race.

rkwaki

Nah those guys are a bunch of **** ups...

bikerjp

Not even. But according to the calculator this ride is 427 watts so WAY more power put into it than the sample ride. If you had said "casual" 31.1 miles vs a haul-ass TT I might have been a bit closer. Never would have assumed over 400 watts though given the sample ride.

Ooompa Loompa

Having seen some of your other rides on Strava from the weight/mileage thread I would have expected you to be faster on a course like this. Were you taking it easy on this particular day?

LowCel 

Actually 302 watts. Thing is some people can really step up to the plate once they pin a number on. Luckily for me I'm one of those people.

LowCel 

Went hard on the climbs, took it somewhat easy most of the rest of the ride.