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Forget cars — e-bikes will be the top selling EV in the next decade

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Forget cars — e-bikes will be the top selling EV in the next decade

Old 12-16-19, 06:36 PM
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Seattle Forrest
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Forget cars — e-bikes will be the top selling EV in the next decade

Here in Seattle, it can take more than an hour to drive a mile at rush hour, and trying to park feels like a punishment from the Greek gods. I work from home, if I try to run an errand by car at lunch I know someone will grab my parking spot immediately and I won't get another one until around 6 pm. All this to say the predictions don't seem wildly implausible. Especially when you consider that the vast majority of Americans live in urban areas.


Deloitte, which released its annual technology, media, and telecommunications predictions last week, says it expects 130 million e-bikes to be sold between 2020 and 2023 in the US. It also noted that “the number of e-bikes on the roads will easily outpace other e-vehicles by the end of next year.”

...
But if you believe that e-bike sales will top 40 million annually by 2023, and then you look at EV adoption rates, it becomes an easier prediction to swallow. At the end of 2018, there were just 5.1 million electric vehicles were in circulation. And only 12 million electric vehicles are expected to be sold in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency’s 2019 Global EV Outlook. (I’m no math expert, but last I checked 40 million > 12 million.)
That dramatic increase in sales seems to herald a dramatic shift in the way people get around. Indeed, Deloitte predicts a 1 percentage point rise in the proportion of people who bike to work from 2019 to 2022. That may not seem like much on the surface, but given the low bases, the difference will be impressive. Tens of billions of additional bicycle rides per year means fewer car trips and lower emissions, with spillover benefits for traffic congestion and urban air quality.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/16/...-deloitte-cars
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Old 12-16-19, 06:59 PM
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Around here it's still WHEELCHAIRS.
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Old 12-17-19, 03:51 PM
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Old 12-17-19, 04:43 PM
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I believe tens of thousands will be sold and most will end up being unused in garage like most bikes are.
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Old 12-17-19, 07:02 PM
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Nissan Leaf = $29,990.00 without potential* tax credit

Zero FX motorcycle = $8,995.00 without potential* incentives

Trek Verve+2 = $2,499.00

Easy to see why electric bicycles should outsell all other EVs worldwide. Considering most Americans live in urban/suburban spawl, not necessarily high density inner urban areas, electric bicycles are still limited to what a bicycle provides, IMO. Electric bicycles are simply easier to pedal and still just as easy to steal. Hard to choke down the loss of a $2,500.00 e-bike to theft compared to a $750.00 bicycle.

Here in the suburban sprawl where I live, Dominos is trying out electric bicycle delivery. The girl that is delivering their pizzas volunteered for the job. It is a dangerous task here with no bike paths or bike lanes and car traffic doing 40+ mph, while she scoots along at maybe 20 mph fully laden.

Honestly, for me to consider an electric bike, it better be able to do 40 mph. Which basically means I would want an electric motorcycle that could do at least 55 mph, but cruise efficiently at that 40 mph. Anything slower and I'd rather pedal it myself, at least at my current age.

*Limited to where you live

Last edited by FiftySix; 12-17-19 at 07:12 PM. Reason: glitch
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Old 12-17-19, 07:18 PM
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I know people who aren't motivated to either ride their e-bike, or who keep mentioning how they're thinking about buying one but need more motivation. This is probably why the 520 Bridge Trail across Lake Washington is basically empty during my commutes while I ride past hundreds of people sitting in their motor vehicles. As easy as I think having a motor in a bike makes cycling, to those people, it's a huge commitment to physical activity (from almost none to something, heck that's nearly infinitely more) that they aren't jumping to embrace. It's going to take a major change in America's car-dominant culture to see those forecasted numbers. Those that have already adopted e-bikes are the easy cases. The rest haven't made the switch because they have a much stronger glue keeping their butts attached to various bits of upholstery.
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Old 12-17-19, 07:28 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam View Post
I believe tens of thousands will be sold and most will end up being unused in garage like most bikes are.
The only people I know who bought e-bikes keep them in the garage next to their regular bikes. Both sets got a few months of use before making the garage their permanent home.
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