Should we expect aluminum frames to get more expensive?
03-09-18, 12:51 PM
#1
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Should we expect aluminum frames to get more expensive?
With the recently announced tariffs on imported aluminum and steel should we expect to see aluminum frames to get more expensive? It would definitely close the price gap between aluminum and carbon and likely kill the resurgence of metal frames which would be a pity.
I don't intend for this post to get political but I'm not too familiar with the process of import and export and I'd like to discuss the direct implications to the resurgence of aluminum bikes (and steel for that matter).
I don't intend for this post to get political but I'm not too familiar with the process of import and export and I'd like to discuss the direct implications to the resurgence of aluminum bikes (and steel for that matter).
03-09-18, 12:54 PM
#2
Senior Member
@ ~$1/LB, I can't possibly imagine so.
I mean...perhaps ~$2 per bike if AL priced double.
https://www.infomine.com/investment/m...uminum/5-year/
I mean...perhaps ~$2 per bike if AL priced double.
https://www.infomine.com/investment/m...uminum/5-year/
03-09-18, 12:57 PM
#3
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How could it affect prices of aluminum frames? Virtually all aluminum frames in the US are imported as finished goods, not tariffed raw materials.
03-09-18, 12:59 PM
#4
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The global market will likely get mucked up because of us. Shouldn't have any kind of noticeable effect on the bike world though.
03-09-18, 01:16 PM
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+1. However, I only buy foil hats fabricated in the U.S. from fancy aluminum imported from France, so I am bound to pay more.
03-09-18, 01:26 PM
#6
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+1) they're made abroad anyhow, so US tariff on raw sheet metal really won't apply..
Taiwan does not re import US aluminum, originally from PRC, do they?
Of course not..
...
Taiwan does not re import US aluminum, originally from PRC, do they?
Of course not..
...
Last edited by fietsbob; 03-10-18 at 05:09 PM.
03-09-18, 01:46 PM
#7
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The raw material cost has nothing to do with fair market price. The value of a good is determined by the highest price the market will bear. I wouldn't be surprised if a seller tried to use the 14 cents in material cost as an excuse to add a $10 surcharge to the end user. But it would be a dishonest profit grab based on consumer ignorance. My company did the same with fuel surcharges when gas prices went up, but never repealed when they went down again. Some restaurants are doing the same with automatic gratuities and using the minimum wage law as an excuse to grab another revenue stream...Celebrity Chef Tom Douglas, a chain of mexican restaurants in my town and a Latte stand I no longer frequent come to mind.
In reality though, the pennies in production cost per unit, on the products the tariffs would affect to are so small they will most likely be absorbed by the producer. The savvy producer *may* try the strategy (& why wouldn't they?) But don't be fooled.
In reality though, the pennies in production cost per unit, on the products the tariffs would affect to are so small they will most likely be absorbed by the producer. The savvy producer *may* try the strategy (& why wouldn't they?) But don't be fooled.
Last edited by base2; 03-09-18 at 01:51 PM.
03-09-18, 01:50 PM
#8
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The spin doctors from the big bike manufacturers will easily figure out how to 'rationale' a bump in price.
At my local gas pumps, a bump in the world price for a barrel of oil translates to a bump in gas prices almost immediately. But inexplicably, it doesn't go the other way.
At my local gas pumps, a bump in the world price for a barrel of oil translates to a bump in gas prices almost immediately. But inexplicably, it doesn't go the other way.
03-09-18, 02:22 PM
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I am a serious cyclist so aluminum fames are not on my radar screen anyway. 
03-09-18, 02:34 PM
#10
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03-09-18, 02:51 PM
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If the aluminum (and steel) tariffs cause a glut on the international markets, it is quite possible we'll see the prices of imported aluminum and steel products fall.
03-09-18, 02:57 PM
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Isn't the USA buying most of it's aluminum from Canada anyway? I think Canada will not be targeted by these tariffs, so I guess it won't change much. Also, I don't think the price of aluminium represent a big share of the full price of a bike. it's probably under 10%.
03-09-18, 02:59 PM
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No, it won't affect aluminum frames at all for the simple reason that theyre not being built in the USA, and therefore unaffected by the cost of aluminum here.
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An ounce of diagnosis is worth a pound of cure.
Just because I'm tired of arguing, doesn't mean you're right.
“One accurate measurement is worth a thousand expert opinions” - Adm Grace Murray Hopper - USN
WARNING, I'm from New York. Thin skinned people should maintain safe distance.
03-09-18, 03:00 PM
#14
Senior Member
Isn't the USA buying most of it's aluminum from Canada anyway? I think Canada will not be targeted by these tariffs, so I guess it won't change much. Also, I don't think the price of aluminium represent a big share of the full price of a bike. it's probably under 10%.
03-09-18, 03:02 PM
#15
Senior Member
The spin doctors from the big bike manufacturers will easily figure out how to 'rationale' a bump in price.
At my local gas pumps, a bump in the world price for a barrel of oil translates to a bump in gas prices almost immediately. But inexplicably, it doesn't go the other way.
At my local gas pumps, a bump in the world price for a barrel of oil translates to a bump in gas prices almost immediately. But inexplicably, it doesn't go the other way.
Don't you remember gas at $4.50/gal a few years ago? Oh wait, you're Canadian. Never mind.
03-09-18, 03:06 PM
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03-09-18, 03:10 PM
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03-09-18, 03:12 PM
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03-09-18, 03:15 PM
#19
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What was the example... no import duty on motorcycles manufactured in India but they put a 100% import duty on Harley Davidsons? The non-duty import restrictions are the less obvious ways to cheat free and open trade. I remember decades ago Japan required an imported Ford to be completely taken apart and reassembled before it could be sold there... to meet their high standards.
03-09-18, 03:23 PM
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03-09-18, 05:28 PM
#21
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Sorry, my bad, I see Fuji has trademarked that French town name so it must be Japanese.
Back on track, Aloominum will be more expensive than carbon, hence more exclusive. All the cool kids will be riding it by christmas.
03-09-18, 06:03 PM
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What exactly is the tax on? Raw materials? That would seem pretty stupid, and force companies to manufacture more overseas.
Structural components such as structural steel and billet aluminum?
It would certainly be fun trying to determine exactly how much steel and aluminum is in a new car.
Structural components such as structural steel and billet aluminum?
It would certainly be fun trying to determine exactly how much steel and aluminum is in a new car.
03-09-18, 06:21 PM
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An example for the rise in cost of Aluminum was concerning the price of beer. the can uses .03 for each can. the tariff is 10%, which equates to .003 per can. Not much of a price increase if the total cost was passed through.
03-09-18, 10:10 PM
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The Beer Institute, a trade group, said the 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum would amount to a $347 million tax on the beverage industry. It estimated that higher expenses and lost sales would force the layoff of about 20,300 workers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/b...-beer-can.html
03-09-18, 10:19 PM
#25
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And yet somehow...
The Beer Institute, a trade group, said the 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum would amount to a $347 million tax on the beverage industry. It estimated that higher expenses and lost sales would force the layoff of about 20,300 workers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/b...-beer-can.html
The Beer Institute, a trade group, said the 10 percent tariff on imported aluminum would amount to a $347 million tax on the beverage industry. It estimated that higher expenses and lost sales would force the layoff of about 20,300 workers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/02/b...-beer-can.html
Last edited by u235; 03-09-18 at 10:26 PM.