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What is this Surly Ogre custom built worth?

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What is this Surly Ogre custom built worth?

Old 08-23-19, 06:05 PM
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Bike Jedi
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What is this Surly Ogre custom built worth?

I know what new bikes go for stock, and I know what a bike would cost to build from scratch if I had to lay it out in a spreadsheet, but I have no clue what one costs, "if" there is even such a market for this bike, how big that market would even be, or if there is any value in seeing about flipping the bike entirely and doing another one from scratch and profiting the difference.

I would ask that folks that truly are not in the know, don't take wild stabs at it, but actually sound advice whether there is a market and demand for even such a thing, and if so, what would be a reasonable and acceptable mark up on the build for all the labor that went into this type or kind of bike?

The bike is a combination of this bike: https://www.cyclingabout.com/custom-...ing-bike-2019/ with my own little changes here and there. Actually what happened was I had 90% of the bike designed, and then I found the article I just mentioned. So I incorporated some of his touches into it, and majority of the other stuff that we already agreed on came from the reading of the collective conscious here.

Ogre Frame = $575

Cane Creek 40 headset = $43

Shimano XT BB-MT800 English Bottom Bracket = $26

SHIMANO SLX M7000 Hydraulic Disc Brake Set MTB Ice Tech Resin = $148

Shimano Deore SLX Hollowtech crank set 22/30/40 = $100

Planet Bike Cascadia 29" x 65 Fender Set: Black (29 x 1.5-2.0) = $55

Shimano Deore SLX FD-781 = $15

Microshift 10-Speed Mountain Bike Flat Bar Thumb Shifter Friction - Left = $45

Shimano Deore XT RD-M786 10-Speed Shadow Plus Rear Derailleur = $50

Shimano Deore XT SL-M780 10-Speed Rapidfire Pods Right Hand = $38

Shimano F180P/P2 Disc brake adapter = $13

Problem Solvers Direct Mount Adapter = $37

JAGWIRE SHIFTER GEAR DERAILLEUR HOSE HOUSING CABLE INNER KIT MTB ROAD SHIMANO = $9

KMC X10 X10.93 MTB Road Bike Chain 116L 10 Speed for Shimano SRAM Campagnolo = $14

Alligator Bike Bicycle Brake Derailleur Shifter Cable End Caps tips Black 25pcs = $3

Frame Saver = $12

Shimano Deore XT RT86 Rotors = $50

Rotor Locking caps = $20

Platform Peddles = $25

Shimano HG-50 10 Speed 11-36 Cassette = $33

Mtb bike road bicycle c-clips clamps housing hose guide for brake derailleur shift cables 10 pcs/lot = $8

Locktite = $6

Sumind 11 Pieces Bike Carbon Fiber Headset Spacer Bicycle 1-1/8 Inch 20 15 10 5 3 2 1 mm, 7 Size = $9

Surly CroMoly Front Rack 2.0 (Black) = $120

Tubus Evo Cargo = $100

___________


Grand Total Total = $1,554

___________

Wheelset = $565 (Velocity Cliffhangers, Shutter Precision 8x Dynamo Hub, Saprim spokes and brass nipples, Shimano 105 rear hub...tubeless setup)

Tires = $100

Stans = $15

Total = $680

___________


Grand Total Total = $2,234

___________

Brooks Flyer Saddle = $100

Velo Orange Seat Post = $50

Jones Loop Bars =$80

Egron Grips = $30

Tape = $15

Pletscher Zoom ESGE Kickstand = $25

Total = $300

___________

Grand Total $2,534
___________

Ortlieb Bike Packer Classic Pannier Bags (Pair) = $170

___________

Grand Total $2,704


That's all the prices at cost, give or take a few bucks.

So if I was to sell this bike brand new to someone, how much do you think the bike would actually be worth if it was listed on Craigslist, Ebay, Pinkbike, etc? Let's say the bike is worth $2,500 without panniers, $2,000 without seat, peddles, and racks if it's easier to come up with a number.

What is the value on this bike brand new?

I originally built this bike for me, but do you think there is any strong value in flipping the bike, profiting off it, and doing another one?

If I could only sell the bike for $3,000, then it wouldn't be worth it to me for a one time deal like this unless I was doing them in mass numbers. But if I could sell it for $4,000, that might be a different story. I would gladly pocket $1,300, build another one, and try again or keep the next one for myself. But I honestly just don' t know how much a bike like this would sell for retail or on something like Craigslist.

Can some of you more experience folks that really know the correct answers to these questions give some input? I have the skill set to do something like this now, I am wondering if I can pursue it more as a private person with an niche in touring bikes or adventure riding bikes kind of thing on the side, versus working for a shop kind of thing. Is that even realistic? Outside of myself, I don't know anyone that is into this kind of stuff, and where I live, there is some pretty well known shops that cover this kind of stuff that I wouldn't want to try competing with kind of thing. However, if there was enough of a market in the rest of the states for such a thing, and I can build and sell them online or even in my state, then I wouldn't mind do something like that at all. I love having the skill set, but I am not sure how useful it may be outside of my own needs long term and wondering if there is a source of revenue in it for me down the road at all, even if just a side income to help out.

Thoughts?

Last edited by Bike Jedi; 08-23-19 at 06:20 PM.
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Old 08-23-19, 07:27 PM
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Are those retail prices? Wouldn't I be able to go to any dealer and have them build the bike for me for the $2700?
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Old 08-23-19, 07:29 PM
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Your "labor," planning and sourcing of parts has no market value. The value of the completed project would be the lowest cost of all parts, less some depreciation or discount for not being new from a dealer. At least 30% and possibly up to 50%. In a nutshell, you can only lose money.
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Old 08-23-19, 08:48 PM
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Also, if you sell the thing as a bike, some of the choices you made will not be the same choices a prospective buyer would want on their bike. So there's a discount for that.

Real bike retailers do this in volume, and they order parts at wholesale and have a cadre of purchasing agents, salespeople, technicians, and the like to get parts cheaply and efficiently, assemble parts properly and safely, and sell quickly and for reasonable money.

To put this in perspective, there's a used 2019 Ogre on eBay right now, starting at 800 bucks, with a buy-it-now of $1056. Would your offering be worth double that? Not to be snotty, but by the way, those online bike retailers also have marketing folks who could tell you what the value would be.

The critical thing is that to build one bike, you are buying stuff at retail. So I suspect that there's no margin (that is, negative margin) on this. Further, the bike parts companies like Shimano are closing down their Mom and Pop channels in favor of chains buying a lot of parts. So even getting an account with, for example, Shimano, is very difficult/impossible as I understand it. But if you like building bikes, and you want to do so and then see what you can get on eBay or CL and you can afford to lose about half your investment and chalk it up to experience and learning, have at it.
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Old 08-23-19, 08:52 PM
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Anybody that calls themself "Bike Jedi" shouldn't need to bother with us mere mortals.
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Old 08-23-19, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by JonathanGennick View Post
Are those retail prices? Wouldn't I be able to go to any dealer and have them build the bike for me for the $2700?
Yes, those are well shopped retail prices. I would be surprised if they were getting them for a whole lot less at their cost for as well as I researched, shopped, planned, etc... The only thing they might be getting a huge difference in price for is the actual frame itself, which I hear their cost is somewhere around $500. So for them, they might get the frame for $100 less, but I doubt when you add up everything else, they are getting their costs much lower than mine when push comes to shove.

And I don't know if someone could just walk in and order that bike for $2,700. That's why I am asking Could they?
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Old 08-23-19, 10:28 PM
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Originally Posted by shelbyfv View Post
Your "labor," planning and sourcing of parts has no market value.
Well it does if there aren't a lot of people out there building these bikes. I don't know what it is like to walk into a Surly shop and ask about a custom build. Would they seriously know enough to go into the details of the bike specs parted out here? I would question that. I have spoke to many Surly shops, Surly mechanics, etc...and majority of them don't know more about the bikes than me, and to be honest, the ones that do, are few and far between. In a place like this, I am a pee among giants, but out in the real world, even in many LBS's, that doesn't hold true. To give you an example, I live right near the REI flagship store, and they have a pretty big bike department, and those folks know a lot more about bikes than I do...but there isn't a person in there that could talk about this class of bikes to the level I can, and they wouldn't know how to part out a bike like this. And I specifically sought out their "adventure rider" kind of expert to go over some last minute things on this build, and that person knew a lot of stuff, and we had an awesome conversation around this build, but when push came to shove, they didn't know more than me or even close to the majority of this stuff on this build. But in biking in general, and working in bike shops, etc...that person was a giant next to me.

There is a Surly dealer in town where I know there isn't a person in the store that knows more about these bikes than I do, and they openly say that when I walk in. In fact, every store that I personally go in says that.

So can someone walk into a Surly store, and order this bike up, even with a person that sells them and works there? Statistically, I doubt it based on my own experience.

At the same token, what is my true target audience? I would venture to guess someone that knows they want that much in a bike or out of it, would already have a good idea of parts, and could do this themselves. How much of a target audience would know enough about parts, be able to access properly versus a stock Ogre, and want to pay someone for the work on this? I doubt that target audience is really that big at all, if there even is one at all. I wouldn't want someone else to build the bike for me now that I know what I am doing. Why would someone else that can pay those prices?

I honestly don't know the answers to the questions I am asking because I don't know enough about custom bikes or the market in that regards at all. At the same token, there are some really good quality shops that can build this sort of thing just fine. Why would they want some shmoe online with not the best reputation or even an established reputation, build them a bike from their home, versus Mr. I sell tons of Custom Surely bikes and known reputation?

Just trying to look at things from all angles. I actually never thought about selling the bike until it was finished, just to do it again, and then was curious if there was any real value in it, versus insisting or assuming there is. I just don't know enough, as I am really just a young Padawan, trying to pretend to be a real Jedi. I picked the name for my future stardom rather than the present. This way, I can grow into it.

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Old 08-23-19, 10:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Bill Kapaun View Post
Anybody that calls themself "Bike Jedi" shouldn't need to bother with us mere mortals.
We are here to protect you mere mortals though. It's the way of the force don't you know.

The force is, "get on bicycle, and peddle in opposite direction from other humans."

No light saber needed. No new hands need to be bionically put on. No kissing your sister.

"Use the force Luke."

It's what happens when you find out who your father is and you're having a bad day life.

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Old 08-23-19, 11:09 PM
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Easy way to resolve this; create your project bike, sell it and tell us how much you earned. I'll be surprised if you lose less than 40%.
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Old 08-23-19, 11:24 PM
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So that's a totally nice custom off road touring rig build, but realistically the market doesn't really care about it. Your value of knowledge for speccing the build really only has value on the market if you have an established reputation with prospective clients--if they can really appreciate the specific details for the spec they will probably want to choose the build details themselves.

You also really need liability insurance if you're basically operating as a business as a bicycle mechanic.

Basically your idea of building custom touring bikes for profit but without a business license, liability insurance, and accounts with component distributors is incredibly bad.

I'm a professional mechanic so I'm not as expert at used prices, on that bike, in excellent condition, I'd probably expect to be able to sell it relatively easily around $2000 without non-bike accessories. Maybe $2500.

Realistically it's difficult for actual bicycle businesses to compete with prebuilt bikes with custom builds because manufacturers purchase components at much lower costs than distributors. Prebuilts are pretty universally a much better value, so custom is really the realm of the wealthy or those who have very specific wants.

If you're selling the bike I might try listing it in specialist forums relating to bikepacking, or at least eBay. You want customers who are aware of how sweet, say, those SP hubs are. Craigslist isn't really a specialist market.
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Old 08-24-19, 02:06 AM
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Just looking at the component choices, there are some interesting choices, which would make it unattractive if looking to flip, a few things stand out, but there are many more -

10 speed XT (3x10) 11 speed is king now, a prospective buyer is going to want the latest parts, 10 speed is ancient history if selling.

180mm rotors/adapters, this type of bike shouldn't need more than 160mm, is the frame even spec'd for more than 160mm? probably, but you would need to check.

Problem Solvers Direct Mount Adapter why? if you are going to do a 3x setup, just get a band on FD, no point in adding parts (again, ned to check if the frame can do this, as it looks to be spec'd for 1x now

JAGWIRE SHIFTER GEAR DERAILLEUR HOSE HOUSING CABLE INNER KIT MTB ROAD SHIMANO Get Shimano cables, always the best, buyers may notice and
Alligator Bike Bicycle Brake Derailleur Shifter Cable End Caps tips Black 25pcs will come with this set, no need to buy

Shimano HG-50 10 Speed 11-36 Cassette poverty spec vs XT, buyer will notice

Platform Peddles who cares about pedals, if you going to fit them, fit the cheapest resin one you can find, as any prospective buyer will swap them for their own choice, same with the saddle

No mention of I-spec for the shifter/brakes, if you have this option, use it, as it cleans up the handlebars.

For any prospective buyer of a bike like this, they would probably just buy a stock bike as Surly ship, or know exactly what they want, which probably isn't what you have spec'd, and so would look elsewhere; not seeing this model of selling as viable, if you were doing it as a shop, you would need to have multiple options for each part to customise for what the buyer wants.
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Old 08-24-19, 03:43 AM
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There is no profit to be made from purchasing parts at retail prices and building a complete bike, no matter how unique it may be. Any shop with wholesale accounts will be paying far less than retail for those parts. No matter how well you shopped for prices, no one is selling at cost. Bike manufacturers get parts for even less, because they buy in bulk and without retail packaging.
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Old 08-24-19, 06:19 AM
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Like everyone else, I'm not really answering the question of what that bike is worth, but rather thinking about whether there's a successful business model here. As others have noted, just buying parts retail and building a bike and selling it is not going to be profitable. What you're trying to sell is your knowledge and opinions on components that make this bike particularly well suited for a specific application and, to a lesser extent, the labor of assembling the bike from the parts. To make money, you need to be able to charge extra for the service you provide of picking out the right parts. To do that, you most of all need credibility. The relatively small number of people buying expensive bikepacking bikes already have a lot of options, and if they need guidance, they're going to turn to bike shops or custom builders that have established businesses and some appearance of credibility and accountability (whether or not the employees there have the same knowledge that you do).

So if you want to try to make a go of it, focus first on marketing your unique knowledge and opinions. What experience do you have bikepacking on different bikes that supports the opinions you have? Tell a good story. Offer a package service - for the retail price of frame and parts + a set consulting fee, you will help them choose parts and handle the ordering and assembly. At first, the extra fee you charge will not be worth the time you will invest in marketing and performing the service, but see if you can build a customer base and get a reputation in the touring community. If you're good at what you do and work hard at it, you might be able to make a business out of it.

The main problem I see is that you'll be squeezed in between custom builders on the high end and pre-assembled bikes on the low end. The custom builders will charge more, but for that extra price, the customer gets to spec the frame as well as everything else. Steel frame builders are all around. There's nothing exotic about a 4130 Chromoly frame with a lot of bosses on it. They also have established reputations and provide the peace of mind that they'll likely be around for a while if any problems come up. If they limit the customization of components to a few well selected packages, they also are able to buy in bulk and beat you on base cost. On the lower end, the people who don't want to dive deep into details can get a fully built Ogre at an LBS for ~$1500 (2019 model). Again, they also get the peace of mind of being able to go back to the store if they have any problems. At that price, there's also a lot of room to invest in a few upgrades of things that are important to them before they reach your price.

A better bet might be to scour used sales for deals on popular bikepacking frames like Surly, Moots, etc. and make a business overhauling and flipping them. Re-use as many original parts as you can (cleaned and overhauled of course) and invest in new stuff only where it makes a big difference in selling price. At least your costs would be lower that way, so you wouldn't lose as much starting out.
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Old 08-24-19, 07:07 AM
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Originally Posted by cpach View Post
You also really need liability insurance if you're basically operating as a business as a bicycle mechanic.

Basically your idea of building custom touring bikes for profit but without a business license, liability insurance, and accounts with component distributors is incredibly bad.
I'm surprised it took so long for someone to mention this. These are not trivial concerns if you are building and selling a bike commercially, no matter what your volume.
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Old 08-24-19, 08:02 AM
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Originally Posted by dsaul View Post
There is no profit to be made from purchasing parts at retail prices and building a complete bike, no matter how unique it may be. Any shop with wholesale accounts will be paying far less than retail for those parts. No matter how well you shopped for prices, no one is selling at cost. Bike manufacturers get parts for even less, because they buy in bulk and without retail packaging.
This, 1,000%. Generally, a component goes from manufacturer to initial distributor (the folks who put it in a container and on a boat) to the secondary distributor (chain suppliers like QBP, KHS, etc) then on to the vendor. The price of any part reflects it's travel through that supply chain. A bike mfr. gets their parts by the pallet, often directly from the manufacturer.

Further, never expect to just put a bunch of parts on a frame and sell it at a profit. That's not how it works. Because if the OP can do it, anyone can do it, and save themselves that 4th, wholly unnecessary markup.
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Old 08-24-19, 08:06 AM
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Originally Posted by shelbyfv View Post
Your "labor," planning and sourcing of parts has no market value. The value of the completed project would be the lowest cost of all parts, less some depreciation or discount for not being new from a dealer. At least 30% and possibly up to 50%. In a nutshell, you can only lose money.
Originally Posted by Bill Kapaun View Post
Anybody that calls themself "Bike Jedi" shouldn't need to bother with us mere mortals.

Yep + 1 on both these points.
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Old 08-24-19, 08:26 AM
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Originally Posted by cpach View Post
So that's a totally nice custom off road touring rig build, but realistically the market doesn't really care about it. Your value of knowledge for speccing the build really only has value on the market if you have an established reputation with prospective clients--if they can really appreciate the specific details for the spec they will probably want to choose the build details themselves.

You also really need liability insurance if you're basically operating as a business as a bicycle mechanic.

Basically your idea of building custom touring bikes for profit but without a business license, liability insurance, and accounts with component distributors is incredibly bad.

I'm a professional mechanic so I'm not as expert at used prices, on that bike, in excellent condition, I'd probably expect to be able to sell it relatively easily around $2000 without non-bike accessories. Maybe $2500.

Realistically it's difficult for actual bicycle businesses to compete with prebuilt bikes with custom builds because manufacturers purchase components at much lower costs than distributors. Prebuilts are pretty universally a much better value, so custom is really the realm of the wealthy or those who have very specific wants.

If you're selling the bike I might try listing it in specialist forums relating to bikepacking, or at least eBay. You want customers who are aware of how sweet, say, those SP hubs are. Craigslist isn't really a specialist market.
Thank you. This is realistic and all solid advice. I honestly just didn't/don't know and playing with ideas.

It's definitely not a pride thing, or trying to boost the price, or exaggerate the bike or anything...just trying to figure out what is reality around it because I honestly don't know, and in the shops, I have never seen a bike like this. I have seen bikes that had upgrades, but not quite as unique as this. There is a lot of better bikes, parts, builds, etc...but this is "my" bike, and "my" build


I have not named her yet though.

And to be honest, I sincerely doubt I will sell it. Just curious. Unless someone said, "yes, you can flip an easy $1,400 out of it..." kind of thing. It would be tempting to build two of them to cover my own cost on the bike in that scenario at a minimum would really be the main drive at first if anything.

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Old 08-24-19, 08:45 AM
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In general, uniqueness not not relay to a higher value in late model bikes. In many cases of C & V, the same is true and actually can and does make the bike less valuable. If you can take your stock bike and upgrade it, and then sell it for $1400 more than you have invested in it, bike shops would already be doing that. The fact that it is " your build , your bike " most certainly does not make another person want to an extra 1400$ for it. Not being critical, I commend you for building the bike you want. All just an opinion.

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Old 08-24-19, 08:48 AM
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Pedal. Pedals.
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Old 08-24-19, 08:51 AM
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Originally Posted by DrIsotope View Post
This, 1,000%. Generally, a component goes from manufacturer to initial distributor (the folks who put it in a container and on a boat) to the secondary distributor (chain suppliers like QBP, KHS, etc) then on to the vendor. The price of any part reflects it's travel through that supply chain. A bike mfr. gets their parts by the pallet, often directly from the manufacturer.

Further, never expect to just put a bunch of parts on a frame and sell it at a profit. That's not how it works. Because if the OP can do it, anyone can do it, and save themselves that 4th, wholly unnecessary markup.
I am not fighting your argument in general, and I hear you and agree.

But I would venture to guess, LBS's are still not getting their parts for much less of costs than I am getting them for. I am often buying parts that are literally the absolute cheapest on the net, and/or buying directly from the companies that are often owned by the same parent as the owners of Surly and the major distributors of parts. At one point I actually had the Ogre Frame down to $525 but didn't snag it. I know their actual cost is not much less than that because I spoke with someone who sells tons of these frames, and he sounded authentic. The things I am not saving money on is all the small crap like the adapters, cabling, etc... those I often can't get a deal on and have to pay the premium mark up, like if I need Surly Monkey nuts. That's where they have their edge on costs. But when it comes to things like getting the wheelsets, SLX brakes, etc...they are not going to beat those prices. Try to spec out that wheel build with other wheel builders and see the prices you come up with. I actually would have built the wheels myself to save costs and learn the skill set, but I could barely beat the guys costs to have it done, and for the few extra pennies I would have saved, I am having it done by a professional so I don't have to worry out of the gate, with an assurance that if something goes wrong with the build, it's on them and I am not out the cost for errors I made.

I also don't know what other people see in the bike/build when they look at it, and know what they are looking at. I don't know if there is admiration or pride in the build/bike that would entice others to go, "that's a really sweet build and I want one!" Most of the bike was built with practical, versatility, and value in pound for pound cost on parts for life, longevity, practicality, etc... I know it's a great bike, I value it, but I don't know what value it has.

At the same token, the insurance company said I would have to take it to a LBS to get it appraised if I want to insure it. So I would be curious what a LBS would appraise the bike at as well.
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Old 08-24-19, 08:56 AM
  #21  
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Once again. the only extra value for the " build ", is the value that you put on it for yourself.
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Old 08-24-19, 09:13 AM
  #22  
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If you're buying a component from anyone, you're paying a series of markups. A $120MSRP, $100 retail part probably cost less than $20 to manufacture-- often far less. Even an online gray-market dealer will be selling that part for $80-90. A manufacturer like Specialized or Trek is paying maybe $30 per. The price comes from moving that part. If you're buying derailleurs and pedals by the shipping container, you can get them really cheap. Buying one at a time? If you get a smoking deal and free shipping, you're still paying double or triple.
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Old 08-24-19, 01:30 PM
  #23  
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Seems OP has left us
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Old 08-24-19, 02:00 PM
  #24  
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I have sort of skimmed through this thread, and unless I missed it, it isn't obvious that the OP is going to be able to offer warranty support. No matter how good any bike is, when anyone buys a new bike and subsequently has a problem, they are going to need help from the builder. Warranty support is built into the price of any new bike which is why second hand bikes no matter how little they have been used sell at a significant discount. I have built bikes myself, but only because I acquired components at prices below distributor prices to retailers. Unless this bike came with an ironclad warranty, I wouldn't buy it
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Old 08-24-19, 02:39 PM
  #25  
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Originally Posted by jimc101 View Post
10 speed XT (3x10) 11 speed is king now, a prospective buyer is going to want the latest parts, 10 speed is ancient history if selling.

180mm rotors/adapters, this type of bike shouldn't need more than 160mm, is the frame even spec'd for more than 160mm? probably, but you would need to check.
I disagree with these points. For a touring/bikepacking/go-anywhere bike, a 3x drivetrain and 180mm rotors are useful.
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