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Has the bike supply market turned?

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Old 05-01-23, 11:18 AM
  #1  
hughwp
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Has the bike supply market turned?

has the massive uptake in cycling during lockdown reversed? Back then there were supply problems of new bikes and prices soared. Looking at facebook marketplace there seems a glut of bikes for sale. I have bought a few a 2017 boardman slr pro for £250 which was £1800 new 5yrs ago although a bit of damage to frame from it falling over. In each case people were selling bikes they bought during lockdown and no longer use them.

has anyone else noticed this change in the secondhand market particularly at the lower end?
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Old 05-01-23, 11:50 AM
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I haven't noticed a glut but don't really follow low end. Is this a positive or negative for you?
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Old 05-01-23, 12:16 PM
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Low end MTB's are on sale across the board right now. Just picked up a bike for my son that was 30% off. Now, is that 30% off prices that were inflated by 30% during Covid? I don't know.

The LBS is full of low/mid tier MTB's, Hybrids, Cruisers - even a handful of Gravel bikes - but only a few road bikes in stock.
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Old 05-01-23, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by hughwp
has the massive uptake in cycling during lockdown reversed? Back then there were supply problems of new bikes and prices soared. Looking at facebook marketplace there seems a glut of bikes for sale. I have bought a few a 2017 boardman slr pro for £250 which was £1800 new 5yrs ago although a bit of damage to frame from it falling over. In each case people were selling bikes they bought during lockdown and no longer use them.

has anyone else noticed this change in the secondhand market particularly at the lower end?
You bought a frame damaged 6 year old road bike for $312usd. Ok then, cool.
I havent found that in my market, though I admittedly havent looked because I am not interested in a bike with a damaged carbon frame.

There are more bikes for sale new now compared to 2 years ago in shops around me.
The bikes now cost 25-50% more than they did 3 years ago.
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Old 05-01-23, 12:30 PM
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There was no 'massive' uptake in cycling in the UK and US during Covid. It just seemed like it. When you double an absurdly small number, you still have a small number. At best there was a doubling in the number of casual cyclists venturing into the empty streets for the first couple weeks of lockdowns. Cars quickly took back the high ground terrorizing cyclists back to the parks and rail trails they had always been using. I saw no other bikes during my commutes for two years straight. I don't think about bike prices at all. I am more than pleased with the amount of bike $500 to $1000 can buy new, and what $100 to $200 can buy used. Those prices haven't changed since before Covid. I personally wouldn't, but I would have no hesitation recommending a $300 new bicycle to someone new to cycling who isn't going to do much of it.
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Old 05-01-23, 01:38 PM
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Doubling a small number is still a massive uptake. Obviously there were supply chain issues with Covid, but demand also went up drastically. It was a great way to commute that didn't involve public transport, one of the few activities that let you leave a county in the UK, great exercise, and significantly safer since the roads were much quieter.

It's a shame though that a lot of people didn't stick with it, but it's not for everyone. There's definitely an abundance of bikes for sale at the moment, many of them having only done a handful of miles. Definitely more on the low-mid range stuff though, the sub £1000 bikes that were sold out pretty quickly.

Some definite bargains to be had for the careful shopper too. I bought a Voodoo Limba gravel bike that'd allegedly only done about 10 miles for 50% retail, that looked mint.

Originally Posted by mstateglfr
You bought a frame damaged 6 year old road bike for $312usd. Ok then, cool.
That's less than the cost of the 105 groupset on it. Even if the frame was junk, it's not a bad deal, and the damage could have been limited to some paint.
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Old 05-01-23, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm
There was no 'massive' uptake in cycling in the UK and US during Covid. It just seemed like it. When you double an absurdly small number, you still have a small number. At best there was a doubling in the number of casual cyclists...
It is difficult for me to grasp that a doubling of users isnt a massive uptake(uptick?).
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Old 05-01-23, 02:31 PM
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I see a few bike manufactures having a sale trek and santa cruz. By in large I still can't buy a bike in my size with the group sets that I want. At least for me I don't see LBS stocked full bikes at give away prices.
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Old 05-01-23, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by mstateglfr
It is difficult for me to grasp that a doubling of users isnt a massive uptake(uptick?).
It only lasted a couple to few weeks. Weeks. Covid has been around for three years now. The vast majority of the bikes purchased are sitting in bike storage rooms in condo complexes. The owners have no idea of how to get rid of them. They are terrified of Craigslist. Not impressed by what a dealer might give them. Or just too busy to go through the hassle of it all. For the most part they bought low to mid-priced hybrids. During Covid I GAVE away four bikes to make room in my garage. One (sniff) was a beautiful 1984 Raleigh Team USA. None were 'low priced' in their prime. But I wasn't riding them. I still have nine. Plenty of people can hold onto the Covid bikes they bought, even though they were ridden only once or twice.
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Old 05-01-23, 02:52 PM
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Based on what I've seen in the low to mid-end resale market, it's a lot softer than it was pre-COVID, and way down from mid-2020 peak where anything working with wheels would sell fast at a high markup. It's definitely a buyer's market now - looking at the https://www.bikeforums.net/classic-v...e-part-ii.html pages, there's a very noticeable drop in prices from 2-3 years ago, with high-quality bikes sometimes going for barely $100.

At our co-op (Rusty Spoke) we're muddling through as we get the inventory mainly free as donations and donate our own time in fixing them up. Sales are steady, but price points aren't high. A for-profit operation or one having to pay for bikes & labor may be seeing a razor-thin or nonexistent margin on sales.

But at least new parts and consumables such as cables & tubes are amply available again (although at much higher prices than 2019), and for that I'm grateful.
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Old 05-01-23, 03:02 PM
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i'm now seeing bicycles at the curb come trash day. That's telling of a saturated low-end bso market.

Higher tier stuff is never going to be where it once was.
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Old 05-01-23, 03:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm
It only lasted a couple to few weeks. Weeks. Covid has been around for three years now. The vast majority of the bikes purchased are sitting in bike storage rooms in condo complexes. The owners have no idea of how to get rid of them. They are terrified of Craigslist. Not impressed by what a dealer might give them. Or just too busy to go through the hassle of it all. For the most part they bought low to mid-priced hybrids. During Covid I GAVE away four bikes to make room in my garage. One (sniff) was a beautiful 1984 Raleigh Team USA. None were 'low priced' in their prime. But I wasn't riding them. I still have nine. Plenty of people can hold onto the Covid bikes they bought, even though they were ridden only once or twice.
The topic is bike supply. The bike supply was decimated between April 2020 and May 2021. It has since improved.
Supply was scarce because of an increase in interest as well as a delay in production/supply chain woes.
As for the used market, it was limited and expensive. Now its less limited and still relatively expensive.

None of this should really be anything to disagree over.
I just found it funny that you claimed a doubling of users wasnt an uptick.
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Old 05-01-23, 06:18 PM
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Scorched earth: the strategic basis for continuous oversupply

I was able to easily predict this since summer 2020. One gets used to anything about buy/sell from daytrading.

I know one flipper in my town that lost his house because he filled it with about 100 vintage unicorns that no one will buy.

I know one ebike "brand" in my town that has about 3000 ebikes in the warehouse, imported via peak shipping container prices. NONE of them are moving.

A lot of folks in the trade are simply over exposed, meaning, they have too much inventory, and no more cash, thinking the 2020/2021 customers would keep flowing in.

Fun read:

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/opin...ous-oversupply
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Old 05-01-23, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by soyabean
I was able to easily predict this since summer 2020. One gets used to anything about buy/sell from daytrading.

I know one flipper in my town that lost his house because he filled it with about 100 vintage unicorns that no one will buy.

I know one ebike "brand" in my town that has about 3000 ebikes in the warehouse, imported via peak shipping container prices. NONE of them are moving.

A lot of folks in the trade are simply over exposed, meaning, they have too much inventory, and no more cash, thinking the 2020/2021 customers would keep flowing in.

Fun read:

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/opin...ous-oversupply
What goes up....
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Old 05-01-23, 06:41 PM
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Originally Posted by genejockey
What goes up....
Surely that doesn't apply to bitcoin, right?

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Old 05-02-23, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by shelbyfv
I haven't noticed a glut but don't really follow low end. Is this a positive or negative for you?
Its positive for me bought a brum built 80s 531 fred williams with Campag/shimano brevo/600 set for £200 and a 3.5yr old BH Volt folding electric bike with Yamaha crank drive and switch gear that cost around £1800 new for £500 down from £800 in mint condition with 90% battery and only used 10 times according to the diagnostics report.
Also bought a Brighton bike company folding luggagible bike for £25 that had been fitted with new spokes and just needed the wheels truing and a new chain and a bit of oil to put right

I have noticed new stuff soaring in price particularly the high quality domestic brands, but it does no seem to reflect in the second hand market which indicates second hand bikes for sale are plentiful. Seen the same for many other manufactured goods particularly imported stuff.
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Old 05-06-23, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm
I am more than pleased with the amount of bike $500 to $1000 can buy new, and what $100 to $200 can buy used. Those prices haven't changed since before Covid. I personally wouldn't, but I would have no hesitation recommending a $300 new bicycle to someone new to cycling who isn't going to do much of it.
Years ago, a new entry level bike for $200 to $300
Now, that same entry level bike is at least $500
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Old 05-06-23, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Leisesturm
The owners have no idea of how to get rid of them. They are terrified of Craigslist. .
People LOVE FB Marketplace and NextDoor.com
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Old 05-06-23, 03:18 PM
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"bikes are cheap because everyone bought during COVID"

I don't see the down side.
It's a buyers market.
and I'm a buyer.

(look, 5 bikes is my limit.... this time I mean it! Seriously! Not kidding this time)
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Old 05-06-23, 03:37 PM
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Nice rare and collectible and high end steel, aluminium and steel frames tend to rise in value, so do spare parts but if you hunt, you can find some bargains on ebay or in some specialized bike shops.I have enough bikes and no place for any additional bike anymore, I will build my projects and then ride them and buy a stock of additional spare parts.
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Old 05-06-23, 09:12 PM
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Originally Posted by georges1
Nice rare and collectible and high end steel, aluminium and steel frames tend to rise in value, so do spare parts but if you hunt, you can find some bargains on ebay or in some specialized bike shops.I have enough bikes and no place for any additional bike anymore, I will build my projects and then ride them and buy a stock of additional spare parts.
It is an incredibly rare day when I see a bike selling for more than it sold new.
There are countless custom frames made from top quality steel and finished with impeccable detail, that sell for 40% of new even without having been ridden. Forums are flooded with examples.


I do see from time to time a 30-40 year Colnago frame for more than new. It's a rare day and inflation exists.

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Old 05-07-23, 06:21 AM
  #22  
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The market is as soft as a marshmallow in my area. Plenty of crazy asking prices still. I was trying to downsize my collection a couple of years ago. Was pretty successful, then a bunch of "holy grail" bikes in my size started popping up at really crazy low prices last year. I am now short on storage space again, but enjoying my new additions. If somebody is looking for bikes to ride, bargains can still be had. That is if they are patient and keep their eyes open. As far as being some type of business, I wouldn't recommend it.
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