mtb_addict

I saw one guy comute on a self-converted e-bike...like 2 years ago. Haven't seen him since. And haven't seen any ebike on my commute or weekend road rides.

I only see e-bikes a few times on the MUP. People use them like novelty toys. Like hoverboard or skate board. Not really a serious form of transportation by the masses.

Still way way too expensive and too much hassle charging battery. I see most serious commutings are still using rigid moutain bikes.
Even if e-bike prices drop like a cliff...I still don't see it surpassing the regular bicycle.

But I do see e-bike being a force in the rental bike business.

fietsbob

Who will be collecting the Data ? from what sources,?
and will their a priori premise bias their result , or analysis of the data?

Gresp15C

Good luck gathering any kind of sensible data. Of course the original question is just about sales, and market study data are probably reliable enough to get an approximate view of reality. The sales figures are often given in dollars, but one can probably expect to find unit sales volume data as well.

Finding out who is using and riding bikes is another matter. We already know from conventional bikes, that most bikes don't really get used past the honeymoon period.

lkoyanagi

Ebikes are just a type of bike for your "niche market." So what? There are the other "niche markets" including road bikes, hybrid bikes, mountain bikes, children's bikes, foldups and so on. There is a "niche" bike for most "niches." And don't forget tandem, recumbent and variations thereto including "niche" aero road bikes. Some bikes have training wheels, windshields, umbrellas and foreward cranks all in "niches." So what?

I have a Tern eLink D7i. Just gave away my Raleigh hybrid to change "niches." Big deal. Another ebike spoken for, one of 15,000+ ebikes sold to retailers in 6/17-6/18 in the US.

Those dealers not sending their mechanics to the Bosch training will miss the boat.

BrocLuno

Like all forms of electric transport, it's a slow growth niche. Will it overtake someday, prolly ... As soon as gasoline hits $8/gal like Netherlands.

I know many families over there that have at least one eBike. Usually an upright with racks and baskets and front hub drive. Purely utilitarian. It's just one of their options depending on weather and public transit delays/strikes ...

Of course they have a fully developed system of paved bike paths that parallel the major roadways. So bikers are not shoved into car traffic. And almost all the "old town" centers are motor vehicle restricted, so bikes are a really good idea if you need to get around

I'm currently waiting for my "kit" to arrive so I can assemble my first conversion. It's a toy, but it may also be my range extender (70+ years old). So I'm guessing seniors will adopt it quicker than other segments

I'd like to have a Stromer, but I don't spend that kind of money on a used car ...

radroad

Yup, I have a hard time understanding how they are able to justify their pricing structure.

That's why I listed the Dual Sport+ above. It features the same type of frame integrated battery design as stormer frames, at a fraction of the cost. It's not identical of course, but esthetically quite similar. And far more affordable of course. I do wish Bosch had optional throttle but alas, you can't have it all I suppose. Bafang mid drives do have a throttle option.

2019 is the model year where the Big 3 are finally starting to 'get it.' They are systematically beginning to eliminate the weaknesses in e-bike design so potential buyers have fewer and fewer objections.

BrocLuno

In Europe, by law, if you have a throttle, it's either a moped or a motorcycle - not an eBike ...

Not an every day bike, but an example of the kind of integration you are bringing up:


I'd rather have a Stromer with a suspension fork (say 75mm Fox - dual air), just to take the roughness out of the front on pavement breaks and such. There is something about Swiss craftsmanship. Their watches are old school too. But, I'd also love a Porsche

In the real world, I agree on the Trek Dual Sport - a very well executed, all around bike

bicyclridr4life

E-Bikes might take the number one sales spot when cars are either banned or become too expensive for the "average" person to own and operate.

veganbikes

Stromer uses old designs and calls them new and great. Most companies aside from the lowest end e-bikes are moving away from hub drives to the more efficient mid drives from known reputable companies like Bosch, Brose, Shimano and Yamaha or are going with other mid drives that maybe aren't as good but a good step up from those old hub drives. Stromer certainly had some of the best bikes back in the day but now they are just getting easily out classed by even cheaper bikes.

For those wanting a throttle, there are plenty of electric motorcycles on the market, I think even Harley-Davidson has one (I know several years ago a co-worker of mine test rode one) and those would be excellent but if you want a bicycle get a proper bicycle that you have to pedal to move. It can have a motor and battery or not but having throttle moves it from a bike to a bad moped/motorcycle. With a good quality motor on the highest assist mode and some good gearing hills are nothing and I certainly wouldn't want to waste a ton of battery to throttle around when I can easily pedal with as much assistance as I need.

I have sold a bunch of e-bikes at our shop (probably at least 100 in the past two years or so) and I see more people wanting to try them. I don't know they will fully overtake non-e bikes but certainly it is a growing segment of the market and one we shouldn't ignore or totally try and leave out. Certainly I would be fine leaving out throttled bikes but pedaled bikes definitely not.

BrocLuno

That's another thing about Europe. IC engines are banned in the walled old cities. Even electric cars are restricted. There is just not enough room in those old twisting streets. So, many Europeans use a bike to get from here to there because they can ride through "old town" en route to whatever ...

Cars do not have to get too expensive. If they can't go where you want to go, what use are they ... Then expenses figures in on top of that.

I think it'll be a mix. The average Joe will need a few alternatives. And they will be tailored to where he lives and works, including local weather ... An e-Bike will be one of them.

We are in the Wild West of the e-Bike scene right now. Kilo-watt hot rods for the yahoos, Class I & II bikes for others. e-Cargo Bikes for some. e-Delivery Bikes for others with all day range and 750w ... e-MTB for those wanting to climb faster and higher before they start their descents.

About a bazillion Dutchies have been living very nicely with little 250w front hub motored Gazelle (home market brand) e-Bikes for years now. They get to work and home any day, all day. They don't get to much into the yahoo scene.

If they really want to yahoo, they buy an old USA big block Chevelle, restore it and up the power, and feed it $8/gallon gas. That's a whole different statement

Rollfast

I'm building up an early 80s Chicago Schwinn Cruiser next month, not here at least.

lkoyanagi

You passed 5 road bikes? Was it a race or did they care at all? Oops, there goes another whizzer not enjoying the scenery.

Each rider has a purpose for riding any kind of bike, unsanctioned whizzing not being one. You may be the only one without a good purpose.

adlai

I don't think they will. Electric bikes are still too bulky and heavy. Right now I mainly see them being used by food delivery guys because they're essentially unregulated motorcycles.

If there were ever a system that added like 5 lbs, was built into the frame/bottom bracket, an could regen energy from pedaling, that would be great. Use it mainly as a hill assist without too big a weight penalty.

mackgoo

? Where are you coming from? Please read the context of this thread and you might understand my comment.

This is what I passed the 5 on.

radroad

One of the most refreshing aspects of the e-bike community (online) is that there's very little snobbishness or elitism based upon equipment.

My first few (conventional) bike purchasing experiences while in college were awful: dealing with the attitudes of shop owners and managers was incredibly annoying. Even cyclists in college clubs were a pain to deal with. Among e-bike riders, no one cares if your bike cost $500 or $13K. No one brags about their super record carbon campy derailleur that weighs 3 grams less than a dura ace rear derailleur.

The majority of e-bike riders are older, and many have suffered some significant injury or impairment over the years and therefore find e-bikes to be a godsend. Ebikes allow them to get some exercise and have a tremendous amount of fun while doing so.

lkoyanagi

Read my prev. post on Retailer mag.
It shows some data and attempts to answer questions. You queried good questions, the very same I had. Its good to eliminate those icons floating above our heads. Enjoy!

lkoyanagi

No, ebikes will not overtake all other bikes in our generation. Maybe in the future when electronics overtakes our lives and bikes are the only holdout.

Currently, there are so many segments to the marketing of bikes that ebikes is only one. Also, our country is so diverse in its topography, weather, uses, ages, physical abilities and interests that drastic changes would have to take place to allow ebikes to rise above all other bikes or opposite, to make ebikes to lose market share. Each year ebikes market bubble grows more and where it will peak nobody knows.

Ebikes are in the vastness of space right now growing by word of mouth and visual recognition. There is a separate query category for Ebikes in this forum.

By the way, there are different segments for ebikes just like standard bikes, except I haven't seen an aero ebike yet, because there is a speed of 20 mph limit in many jurisdictions, I suppose.

Gresp15C

In my view, marketing bikes to cyclists is barking up the wrong tree. Convincing dedicated cyclists to get yet another bike is actually remarkably easy, but has little or no net impact on society or on our health. Most of us already promote e-bikes.

Non-cyclists easily outnumber cyclists by 20:1 or more. That's where the opportunities are. If e-bikes have a chance of overtaking conventional bikes, which I believe they do, it will be because they appeal to people who are currently non-cyclists, or are on the margins of cyclling. If you convince half of cyclists, it will be a big flop -- great for bike makers, but with no net impact on society. If you convince a tenth of non-cyclists, it could double the number of people on bikes.

radroad

This is exactly where the e-bike industry is succeeding and exactly the reason why the conventional bike industry is failing. E-bikes appeal to the elderly, out of shape, people who have suffered multiple injuries, and others who may have not been on a bike in decades. However these segments of the population coincidentally often have significant disposable income and they are interested in getting some exercise taking into account their physical limitations.

Since a very large portion of sales are via e-commerce direct to consumer, they can sidestep the snobbish hipster mechanics, the elitist bike shop owners who think anyone without Di2 or super record is a loser, the spandex, and pseudo flyboy-racer attitudes. Plus, they can avoid the grunting 'roid rage lifters and super fit 20 something set at the gym where they might feel out of place or at least self conscious.

As I have said several times before, there is no evidence of growth in the bike industry and there are significant warning signs that the conventional bike industry may be in serious trouble. I read that half of all bike shops have closed in the past decade or so. Performance has gone belly under. Interbike is out of business.

Not to mention the bike industry has extraordinary difficult attracting young or even 'younger' riders. I went to a localish road bike club meet up a couple of years ago. I was the only person in attendance under 50.

I'm not even convinced that e-bike ownership will save the industry. It looks like rideshare and self driving vehicles will be the norm within a generation's time. Everything's in flux right now.

All I know is that e-bikes are ridiculously fun to ride and I'll be buying one. maybe more than that if space and funds allow.

JanMM

You don't already have an e-bike? That's surprising.

Nachoman

So you passed five e-bikes in your porsche? Nice!

mackgoo

Naah, just one in the Boxster.

nios2

Here in Australia they are limited to 25Kmh ( 15.5 MPH) unassisted. On my daily ride I have only ever seen one, an elderly lady with a front basket of shopping. The very few cyclists I see out and about are a very few hard core roadies, young kids on BMX types and a few on MTBs (on the road lol) and hybrids (myself). These groups I do not believe will migrate to e-bikes. My feeling is that the growth will be in areas like the elderly lady above; people who do not currently cycle but the ease and friendliness of an e-bike will convert them.


I rode a hire one while on vacation, fell over and the heavy weight of the machine broke my ankle, so never again for me.


If e-bike sales did increase dramatically then the Government would likely legislate for mandatory licensing as a revenue generating process.


But then, I still use a film camera so I am not the best to advise.

Gresp15C

I think you're out of touch. Your constant stereotyping and disparagement of conventional cyclists tempts me to lump you into the "anti-cyclist" camp. I hope I'm wrong.

The bike industry has bent over backwards to reach the non-spandex market (for lack of a better term, no offense intended), for a long time. The most widely sold bikes are hybrids, cruisers, and MTBs, mostly under 1000 or even 500 bucks. The "city bike" and "commuter bike" are emerging categories. Super record and Di2 are nowhere to be seen on the bikes that pass by my house every morning. That stuff would get stolen in a heartbeat. The prevailing trend is "whatever works, or something nice if you can afford it."

Here's what the bike industry couldn't do by itself, and can't be blamed for: They couldn't invent lithium batteries or rare earth magnets. Without those things, the e-bike is a non-starter. With those things, it's a foregone conclusion. So the e-bike literally grew out of inventions driven by non-bike-related industries -- laptop computers, wind turbines, electric cars, etc.. It's a lucky accident, not something that the bike industry overlooked or dismissed. There have been two areas where the technology needed to develop, and it might have been reasonable for the mainstream industry to wait before jumping on the bandwagon. First, the earliest e-bikes looked like contraptions that were hacked together from spare parts, with ungainly hub motors, wires all over the place, and cantankerous controls (according to e-cyclists whom I've spoken to). Newer designs seem to have settled on mid-drive, better integration of the motors and batteries in the frame, and controls that make bikes ride more like bikes. Second, the price of the batteries has been dropping steadily -- I've read 15% per year.

But will the e-bike save cycling? Not by itself. The reason is that physical effort is not the only obstacle to cycling. There's still climate, safety, and infrastructure. And while e-bikes alleviate the distance problem to some extent, there are still going to be distances that can't be covered on an e-bike by most people, so urban planning and public transportation have to fit into the mix.

radroad

Wow, Cannondale has also taken a major leap forward, along with the Trek models. They're introducing a completely redesigned Quick Neo (rather ominously titled for those who dislike e-bikes) and an e-bike version of their critically acclaimed Synapse. As you can see, both the Quick Neo and Synapse look almost indistinguishable from standard bicycles.

It also appears that Cannondale one-ups the Trek DualSport+ in weight by excluding a suspension fork opting instead for a new frame design that incorporates additional vertical compliance while maintaining torsional rigidity. Not to mention the Quick Neo has an MSRP that's $800 lower.

Both utilize the Bosch power tube design and in the Cannondale in particular, known for it's oversized tubing, blends seamlessly into the overall design.

Specialized has garnered a lot of acclaim for it's new Turbo Levo, which offers 40% more battery capacity as a conventional design with no increase in battery size.

Let's see if Giant can keep pace; Trek, Specialized and Cannondale have definitely taken a leap forward.

https://electricbikeaction.com/canno...2-new-e-bikes/