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Corona and Cavalier Behavior

Old 04-02-20, 11:21 AM
  #76  
livedarklions
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
There are news reports of the President of Turkmenistan threatening imprisonment for anyone speaking of "coronavirus" and for anyone daring to wear a mask to guard against transmissions. As though either threatens anyone or anything.

He'd fit right in with Duterte.

That's almost certainly pure power play by a tyrant--for some reason he feels the needs to show everybody he can do this crazy thing.

I know nothing about Turkmenistan, but he better hope no one in the army starts getting sick because pretty much any military is going to rebel if they're not allowed to discuss what's killing them.
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Old 04-02-20, 11:29 AM
  #77  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
English isn't your first language, is it?
Don't worry about it. These are difficult times for some and I fully understand. Eventually things will get back to normal and everything will be ok. Just hang in there. And remember, the biking community is stronger than any virus .
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Old 04-02-20, 12:00 PM
  #78  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
I'm having a hard time imagining a hypothetical case where this might work once you concede that the only logical response to this is to essentially prevent all avoidable mass gatherings. The cardiac patient example the article gave is silly on its face. Walk in place if you can't go outside. A better one might be if the regulation is actually preventing you from getting food and you're going to starve as a result.
Well, here is what I am referring to. You posit that the 5Km limit in travel can be reasonably be required to prevent people from migrating to places like beaches and the like where people gather. Now suppose I hop in the car to drive further than 5Km for some reason, but never exit the car and return home. I have not endangered anyone, and preventing that kind of activity does not do anything at all to prevent spread of the contagion. The reason for leaving is perhaps relevant. It could be to shut off the water in a vacation home to prevent damage or simply to go for a drive.

As applied to that activity, I would argue the order to be overly broad. But I think the point of the author is since LEOs have indicated that they will give leeway on enforcement, that leeway perhaps saves the order as not being fatally overbroad?

BTW, I also agree that since the science is unknown at this point, exigency requires a lot of latitude in what the order is permitted to do. I guess the difference is that in my "go for a drive for more than 5Km" scenario, there is no science at all that would argue that it presents any danger, and a order that forbids (or maybe is enforced to forbid) that activity facially problematic.
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Old 04-02-20, 01:48 PM
  #79  
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
Well, here is what I am referring to. You posit that the 5Km limit in travel can be reasonably be required to prevent people from migrating to places like beaches and the like where people gather. Now suppose I hop in the car to drive further than 5Km for some reason, but never exit the car and return home. I have not endangered anyone, and preventing that kind of activity does not do anything at all to prevent spread of the contagion. The reason for leaving is perhaps relevant. It could be to shut off the water in a vacation home to prevent damage or simply to go for a drive.

As applied to that activity, I would argue the order to be overly broad. But I think the point of the author is since LEOs have indicated that they will give leeway on enforcement, that leeway perhaps saves the order as not being fatally overbroad?

BTW, I also agree that since the science is unknown at this point, exigency requires a lot of latitude in what the order is permitted to do. I guess the difference is that in my "go for a drive for more than 5Km" scenario, there is no science at all that would argue that it presents any danger, and a order that forbids (or maybe is enforced to forbid) that activity facially problematic.
There is no "drive more than 5k" rule, there's a blanket ban on recreational driving. The 5k distance is how far away you can walk or ride from your house.

File a law suit. It won't work. At this point, the state could probably get away with saying more unnecessary driving = more likelihood of accident requiring the dispatch and use of scarce medical resources, or more pumping of gas = greater chance of contagion.

Medical people are getting fired for speaking out about their lack of ppe and/or wearing masks on the job, and your right to drive aimlessly is the civil liberty you're freaking out about?
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Old 04-03-20, 12:06 AM
  #80  
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Partially-understood information has caused some odd behavior in my apartment complex. Our building is fully enclosed with common hallways to inner-facing doors to each unit. So there's a somewhat higher risk, but it's also a bit easier to control egress.

A couple of days ago the maintenance crew changed all the outer door locks while I was out, so I had to go around to one of the main entrances were some older neighbors congregate daily. Some of them didn't recognize me -- I've lived here longer than most folks but on the opposite side of the building and don't socialize much -- and told me the building was locked down, no visitors. I explained that I am a resident and was using that entrance to access the office so I could get a new key.

So this small group of socializing folks understood *just* enough about the issue to be dangerous. They understand authority, even when they complain about it. But they didn't understand that sitting close together around a common table, smoking, eating and drinking, presented a far greater risk to each other, anyone they contact inside the building, and any authorized visitors such as visiting nurses, etc.

This is why some government edicts sound so bone-headed and simplistic. Some folks just cannot grasp nuances. They understand orders and authority, even when they chafe at it.
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Old 04-03-20, 10:12 AM
  #81  
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
This is why some government edicts sound so bone-headed and simplistic. Some folks just cannot grasp nuances. They understand orders and authority, even when they chafe at it.
Oy, is that the truth. When you come right down to it, that's probably the root of the problem.
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Old 04-03-20, 04:08 PM
  #82  
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Sorry, have been in a coma for the last month.

Are you all saying that itís not a hoax?
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Old 04-03-20, 08:21 PM
  #83  
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Originally Posted by Stretch44 View Post
Sorry, have been in a coma for the last month.

Are you all saying that itís not a hoax?
Yeah, me too.

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/21ebf35...97gTk38a1.copy
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Old 04-04-20, 03:18 AM
  #84  
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Originally Posted by Stretch44 View Post
Sorry, have been in a coma for the last month.

Are you all saying that itís not a hoax?
No, turns out it's just like the flu, it'll be all gone within two weeks...
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Old 04-04-20, 05:09 AM
  #85  
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Old 04-04-20, 06:21 AM
  #86  
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Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
Well, here is what I am referring to. You posit that the 5Km limit in travel can be reasonably be required to prevent people from migrating to places like beaches and the like where people gather. Now suppose I hop in the car to drive further than 5Km for some reason, but never exit the car and return home. I have not endangered anyone, and preventing that kind of activity does not do anything at all to prevent spread of the contagion. The reason for leaving is perhaps relevant. It could be to shut off the water in a vacation home to prevent damage or simply to go for a drive.

As applied to that activity, I would argue the order to be overly broad. But I think the point of the author is since LEOs have indicated that they will give leeway on enforcement, that leeway perhaps saves the order as not being fatally overbroad?

BTW, I also agree that since the science is unknown at this point, exigency requires a lot of latitude in what the order is permitted to do. I guess the difference is that in my "go for a drive for more than 5Km" scenario, there is no science at all that would argue that it presents any danger, and a order that forbids (or maybe is enforced to forbid) that activity facially problematic.
How many additional enforcement people will be required to interact with potentially infected drivers to ensure that people aren't just driving to the beach (that will and does happen as many don't seem to think any of this applies to them). You may mean well and intend no harm, but that's not a universal trait. Consequently in an emergency situation a blanket decree is more practical than having to sort out each persons individual interpretation of rights.
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Old 04-04-20, 06:31 AM
  #87  
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Cancer kills over 600,000 in the USA ever year.

it’s partially due to heredity

So... should we allow people with that heredity to have children? Would that be considered an OVER reaction?
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Old 04-04-20, 01:05 PM
  #88  
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Originally Posted by Rajflyboy View Post
Cancer kills over 600,000 in the USA ever year.

itís partially due to heredity

So... should we allow people with that heredity to have children? Would that be considered an OVER reaction?

So as the death toll and number of cases continue to mount, are you just going to continue to escalate the number of diseases, conditions and types of incidents you're going to compare this to in this idiotic exercise of whataboutism? Do you realize how many different types of cancer there are? And if your point is that the only way to prevent eventual human death is to prevent birth, well, duh.

A lot of people are losing decades of good life to this disease. Others are going to go through physical hell for months and perhaps never fully recover. You've lost the "this is an overreaction argument" to a growing pile of corpses. Give it up.
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Old 04-04-20, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Rajflyboy View Post
Cancer kills over 600,000 in the USA ever year.

itís partially due to heredity

So... should we allow people with that heredity to have children? Would that be considered an OVER reaction?
No, because of your word partially right there, but we should probably regulate the proliferation of environmental toxins that are triggering a surge in cancers and also put some money into immune system research into the effects of our modern lifestyle on immune systems that were designed to operate in a much more hostile microbiological environment.
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Old 04-04-20, 05:04 PM
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I can say I'm begukken glad I don't live in the USA. Looking in from the outside, you lot are in for a really rough ride. We have just as many morons here in Australia, but they are at least relatively well educated morons and know enough to believe in science, at least when it comes to them dying of lungs full of goo. Climate change, not so much, though the bushfires were definitely an eye opener, as has been the vicious drought that's now segued into floods... maybe those scientists were onto something. Even our conservative politicians are getting with the program now. The only hold outs are media figures paid by Rupert Murdoch, they are still mumbling "it's no worse than the flu" and "it's all a giant global scam by science".
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Old 04-06-20, 08:30 AM
  #91  
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Help me understand where we think this is headed. I get the social distancing aspect can slow the spread and alleviate pressure on the medical system. But how does the end? Without a vaccine for a highly contagious disease, how do you ever end social distancing? How do you ever let large gatherings occur? Won't COVID roar back under the circumstances of removing distancing? I'm thinking that the curve flattens with social distancing, but won't we start the climb up the exponential graph again? I don't see how the graphs on https://covid19.healthdata.org/ reach a daily death rate back down to pre-COVD levels without maintaining the distancing and / or a vaccine / cure becomes quickly available (which doesn't sound like it going to happen this year for a vaccine). Could be I'm not reading the graphs correctly.
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Old 04-06-20, 08:52 AM
  #92  
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Originally Posted by Altair 4 View Post
Help me understand where we think this is headed. I get the social distancing aspect can slow the spread and alleviate pressure on the medical system. But how does the end? Without a vaccine for a highly contagious disease, how do you ever end social distancing? How do you ever let large gatherings occur? Won't COVID roar back under the circumstances of removing distancing? I'm thinking that the curve flattens with social distancing, but won't we start the climb up the exponential graph again? I don't see how the graphs on https://covid19.healthdata.org/ reach a daily death rate back down to pre-COVD levels without maintaining the distancing and / or a vaccine / cure becomes quickly available (which doesn't sound like it going to happen this year for a vaccine). Could be I'm not reading the graphs correctly.
Unless something changes, the end of this is that pretty much everybody gets infected, the vast majority recover, and gain some immunity to the virus. Also, antivirals that effectively treat it may be only a few months away if we're lucky. That mitigates a lot of the mortality and adverse effects.
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Old 04-06-20, 03:11 PM
  #93  
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Originally Posted by Altair 4 View Post
Help me understand where we think this is headed. I get the social distancing aspect can slow the spread and alleviate pressure on the medical system. But how does the end? Without a vaccine for a highly contagious disease, how do you ever end social distancing? How do you ever let large gatherings occur? Won't COVID roar back under the circumstances of removing distancing? I'm thinking that the curve flattens with social distancing, but won't we start the climb up the exponential graph again? I don't see how the graphs on https://covid19.healthdata.org/ reach a daily death rate back down to pre-COVD levels without maintaining the distancing and / or a vaccine / cure becomes quickly available (which doesn't sound like it going to happen this year for a vaccine). Could be I'm not reading the graphs correctly.
This is a bit dated, and very long winded in terms of answering this $64,000 question, but it's worth reading and thinking about.

How the Pandemic Will End

The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how itís going to play out.

https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/608719/

There are a lot of important things we don't know yet that will play a significant role in this nasty tale. One of the big questions is how long will people remain immune after fighting the virus off.
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Old 04-06-20, 03:35 PM
  #94  
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Originally Posted by Iride01 View Post
Yep.... my normal trail to ride is now crowded. And of course there are people doing stupid things. Probably most caught in a moment of not thinking. Which happens to me too.

But I really can't get over the group of thee people stopped in the middle of the trail with about five dogs total and one kneeling down letting the another's dog put it's paws all over them and lick their face.

Maybe they are relying on earlier info that said pets didn't get affected. But that doesn't tell me they can't pass it.
That might be true for most pets. Tigers do get it. There is a CV19 sick tiger now at the Brooklyn zoo. It appears several lions are also sick.

Ben
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Old 04-06-20, 06:45 PM
  #95  
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Dude refuse service at CircleK cause he is wearing a mask

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Old 04-07-20, 07:50 AM
  #96  
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Originally Posted by noisebeam View Post
Dude refuse service at CircleK cause he is wearing a mask
https://twitter.com/i/status/1246451309659611136

Honestly, I think CircleK is more responsible for educating their clerks than their clerks can be for keeping themselves educated.

I get the whole "individual responsibility" thing, but it's not like this big company lacks the resources to keep its employees informed. If they're staying open, they're responsible for making sure things are done correctly.

Obviously, neither of these people seem to understand that none of us can say with ANY confidence that "I am not contaminated." The manager isn't wearing gloves while handling the stock, for example.

Personally, I wouldn't set foot in a convenience store at all right now. I just don't see how it can be made a safe environment.
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Old 04-08-20, 01:07 AM
  #97  
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We've had at least* one convenience store robbery with the clerk murdered by bandits wearing surgical or dust masks in March. Didn't take long for criminals to figure out how to exploit the increasingly common wearing of masks.

I stopped at a pawn shop during a grocery run Tuesday to pick up a couple of cheap tools -- pawn shops are good for that stuff. The owner put up a sign prohibiting wearing hoodies, sunglasses, masks, etc. Can't say I blame them. The store had only one customer and two clerks, so I removed my surgical mask while I was inside.

*(I say "at least" because local news reporting lags badly in some crimes, now that daily newspapers have failed. When I was a newspaper reporter we checked the police and fire logs every morning and reported pretty much everything -- every crime, fire and injury accident. That rarely happens now. And there's little or no followup on prosecutions, so the only way to know anything about local crime is through freedom of information requests and scouring the public records online.

In this case the murderers were caught quickly because they were stupid, as most convenience store bandits are. They entered the store earlier that day without wearing any disguise, presumably to "case the joint," as they must have learned from watching bad TV and movies. Pretty much the same behavior as most bandits in every similar robbery/murder I reported on back in the 1980s. Some of them were even stupider, including sending kids from their families, unsolicited to the police to concoct some story blaming another guy in the neighborhood. This always draws attention to the kids and their families, so the stunt backfires. The bandits might as well have walked into the stores without disguises, posed for the security cameras, and called 911 to turn themselves in before committing any crimes.
)

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Old 04-08-20, 05:21 AM
  #98  
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Originally Posted by canklecat View Post
We've had at least* one convenience store robbery with the clerk murdered by bandits wearing surgical or dust masks in March. Didn't take long for criminals to figure out how to exploit the increasingly common wearing of masks.

I stopped at a pawn shop during a grocery run Tuesday to pick up a couple of cheap tools -- pawn shops are good for that stuff. The owner put up a sign prohibiting wearing hoodies, sunglasses, masks, etc. Can't say I blame them. The store had only one customer and two clerks, so I removed my surgical mask while I was inside.

*(I say "at least" because local news reporting lags badly in some crimes, now that daily newspapers have failed. When I was a newspaper reporter we checked the police and fire logs every morning and reported pretty much everything -- every crime, fire and injury accident. That rarely happens now. And there's little or no followup on prosecutions, so the only way to know anything about local crime is through freedom of information requests and scouring the public records online.

In this case the murderers were caught quickly because they were stupid, as most convenience store bandits are. They entered the store earlier that day without wearing any disguise, presumably to "case the joint," as they must have learned from watching bad TV and movies. Pretty much the same behavior as most bandits in every similar robbery/murder I reported on back in the 1980s. Some of them were even stupider, including sending kids from their families, unsolicited to the police to concoct some story blaming another guy in the neighborhood. This always draws attention to the kids and their families, so the stunt backfires. The bandits might as well have walked into the stores without disguises, posed for the security cameras, and called 911 to turn themselves in before committing any crimes.
)

Aren't bank lobbies pretty much closed everywhere? I don't see how convenience stores could be considered safe in this situation, and probably should be closed.
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Old 04-08-20, 05:53 AM
  #99  
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Originally Posted by livedarklions View Post
Unless something changes, the end of this is that pretty much everybody gets infected, the vast majority recover, and gain some immunity to the virus. Also, antivirals that effectively treat it may be only a few months away if we're lucky. That mitigates a lot of the mortality and adverse effects.
If we're focusing on the US, this post is off the mark. The coronavirus infects at a rate of approx. 2:1 which is why the numbers double in a week or so. The idea of social distancing is to reduce the spread to 1:1 since fewer people are available to infect. Once this happens in an area we'll be able to test, find those infected, and enforce real quarantine. Beyond that, there's herd immunity which operates similar to social distancing. Between the two, the coronavirus should blow itself out in a few months. Thus, things should stabilize in June after 80,000 to 100,000 deaths but that doesn't mean back to normal.

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Old 04-08-20, 07:04 AM
  #100  
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Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
If we're focusing on the US, this post is off the mark. The coronavirus infects at a rate of approx. 2:1 which is why the numbers double in a week or so. The idea of social distancing is to reduce the spread to 1:1 since fewer people are available to infect. Once this happens in an area we'll be able to test, find those infected, and enforce real quarantine. Beyond that, there's herd immunity which operates similar to social distancing. Between the two, the coronavirus should blow itself out in a few months. Thus, things should stabilize in June after 80,000 to 100,000 deaths but that doesn't mean back to normal.

That's the rosy scenario, but it's not at all clear that we haven't already blown past that possibility with the delays in effective testing and implementing social distancing.

You've actually conflated two scenarios, btw. Herd immunity only clicks in after a substantial number of the population contracts the virus and recovers or is immunized from it. The latter can't happen in the next few months, so the herd immunity is actually quite a different strategy than the social distancing. Basically, we're looking at two scenarios unless something changes--slow spread or fast spread. Fast spread is going to have a very high mortality and morbidity rate, while slow spread will buy us time to develop effective treatments and not exhaust health care capacity.

There's a major problem with the idea of "real" quarantine--it's premised on the idea that you can detect the infection fast enough to identify the people before they spread it. That people can be contagious while asymptomatic means that contract tracing will always be somewhat too late to reduce the spread to zero. The question really isn't whether a lot of people are going to acquire antibodies to this virus, it's a matter of when and how. The long game is to stretch things out until we can reduce the mortality and morbidity rates.

You're basically describing the Korean solution, BTW. What they're really doing is not allowing the virus to "blow itself out", but instead targeting the brush fires before they can spread into a major conflagration. At this point, it seems to be working, and I hope it continues to do so. I also hope we didn't act too late for this to work here, but that's still a very open question.
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