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Fatality rates in CA

Old 07-30-20, 02:26 PM
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If San Diego gets down to 100 new cases/day per 100,000 (currently at 207 per 100,000), they might reopen the schools for in-person/distanced/part-time/cohort kind of options
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Old 08-13-20, 12:45 PM
  #152  
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2nd wave in CA




Daily deaths curve showing a peak corresponding to the daily new cases peak a few weeks ago. Daily deaths curve will surely rise to match the 2nd wave pretty soon.
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Old 08-13-20, 01:53 PM
  #153  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post


If San Diego gets down to 100 new cases/day per 100,000 (currently at 207 per 100,000), they might reopen the schools for in-person/distanced/part-time/cohort kind of options
100 in 100,000. One in a thousand. So, in a typical large suburban high school of 1000 students and staff, one active COVID carrier on any given day. Say one in 4 that he/she is in active infecting mode. He infects two others. They infect ... and down the line. Quickly, 30 new cases, every 4 days or so. And since some of those new cases will be at those students households, this has quickly become a community issue, not just the school.

So, are my numbers pipe dreams? Or is my scenario considered acceptable? Or do people simply not see or care? At 100 in 100,000 I see a revolving door of schools and closures and the virus going on roughly at the level we are now or higher a long time. I've predicted on other threads the US hitting WW2 fatalities, next May. Opening schools too soon will make that happen.
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Old 08-13-20, 02:03 PM
  #154  
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I am closely following my kids' schools communications about how they are planning to follow recommended guidelines such as: masks of course, multi-criterion screening (doesn't help with asymptomatic), 50/50 online/in-person alternating weeks to double available space, students in cohorts/bubbles to reduce #contacts , 1 cohort stays in 1 room, teachers come through, faculty >6ft from students at all times, students remain in their cohorts to eat outside, etc etc.
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Old 08-15-20, 05:21 AM
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Thankfully the virus doesn't travel through the air.
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Old 08-15-20, 08:29 AM
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Thankfully the virus doesn't travel through the air.
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... and so it goes
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Old 08-18-20, 08:27 PM
  #157  
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https://www.countynewscenter.com/cou...still-on-hold/
San Diego County was removed Tuesday from the state’s County Monitoring List, but local businesses are still under restrictions. The County met a state metric for fewer than 100 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people for a third consecutive day on Monday.


The case rate must remain under 100 for an additional 14 days, until Aug. 31, before K through 12 schools can reopen, if they choose to do so.

Last edited by RubeRad; 08-18-20 at 08:36 PM.
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Old 08-19-20, 02:17 AM
  #158  
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some good news...must stay vigilant. and yes...lock all the beaches down during labor day weekend
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Old 08-19-20, 09:32 AM
  #159  
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...I stumbled onto this quote from a Rush Limbaugh show (from back in March), on fatality rates from Covid. It's so entertaining I just wanted to share it, even though it's old. This is your brain on chemotherapy drugs.
Originally Posted by Winner of the Presidential Medal of Freedom
Pardon my yelling, but this stuff is what ticks me off, and my instincts tell me this. I know this kind of trickery and monkeying around with stuff is going on in these things because I know the media, I know the left, I know the Democrat Party, and I know how they’re trying to scare everybody and now they’re using Fauci here. “This is Trump’s guy! Trump’s guy is saying it’s 10 times more lethal than the flu,” which means nothing.

Ten times more lethal? Lethal than what? What does lethal mean? Does lethal kill you? Does lethal infect you? Does lethal give you a temperature of 102 versus 100? What does it do to you? It’s a meaningless comparative. Ten times more lethal? The only thing worth knowing in this story is that Anthony Fauci says the fatality rate to coronavirus is much less than what they believed.

It is 1%. It is not between 3 and 6%, and that number 3% and 6% has been out there for a couple of weeks. So here comes a news story saying, “Guess what? The fatality rate’s only 1%,” and that’s not the headline. The headline is: “Coronavirus 10 Times More Lethal Than the Seasonal Flu, Trump’s Task Force Immunologist Says.”
https://www.mediamatters.org/coronav...ore-lethal-flu
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Old 08-19-20, 12:13 PM
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lol "What does lethal mean? Does lethal kill you?" yes

The closest he gets to a point is 'meaningless comparative'. Fatality varies so greatly among different population segments that flattening to 'The' fatality rate unavoidably ignores important information. Whether the overall rate is 1%, 3%, 6%, the headline is for 80+ the fatality rate is a mindblowing 20-30%!

Starting from there, it is easy to see that the overall fatality rate can show wide regional variation, depending on how well the elderly and other vulnerable populations (asthmatics? fatties like me?) are protected.
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