Go Back  Bike Forums > The Lounge > Coronavirus/COVID-19
Reload this Page >

When do we see the impact of "Herd Immunity"?

Notices
Coronavirus/COVID-19 Discussion of the novel coronavirus

When do we see the impact of "Herd Immunity"?

Old 06-27-20, 06:06 AM
  #1  
CliffordK
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
CliffordK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Eugene, Oregon, USA
Posts: 24,729
Mentioned: 196 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11741 Post(s)
Liked 1,051 Times in 816 Posts
When do we see the impact of "Herd Immunity"?

A recent CDC report indicated that about about 10 COVID cases have gone undetected in the past for every case that has been detected. See discussion here.

If one uses the metric of about 1% mortality rate, or the CDC 10% diagnosed....

Looking at New York State:
Population: 19.45 Million
Diagnosed Cases: 391,220 (10x gives about 3.91 Million).
Deaths: 31,342 (100x gives about 3.1 million).
15% to 20% of the NY population likely exposed.

New York City:
Population: 8,336,817
Diagnosed Cases: 214,070 (10x gives about 2,1 million)
Deaths: 22,421 (100x gives about 2.2 million)
20% to 30% of the NYC population likely exposed.

New Jersey:
Population: 8.9 Million
Diagnosed Cases: 170,584 (10x gives about 1.7 Million)
Deaths: 14,914 (100x gives about 1.5 Million)
15% to 20% of NJ population likely exposed.

Hudson, New Jersey
Population: 672,391
Diagnosed Cases: 18,788 (10x gives about 188K)
Deaths: 1,445 (100x gives about 144K)
20% to 30% likely exposed.

Massachusetts:
Population: 6.9 million
Diagnosed Cases: 108,070 (10x gives about 1.08 million)
Deaths: 8,012 (100X gives about 800K)
11% to 16% likely exposed.

Florida
Population: 21 Million
Diagnosed Cases: 122,960 (10x gives about 1.23 million)
Deaths: 3,366 (100x gives about 337K)
1.6% to 6% likely exposed.

Texas
Population: 29 million
Diagnosed cases: 140,173 (10x gives 1.4 million)
Deaths: 2,354 (100x gives about 235K)
1% to 5% likely exposed

Dallas Texas
Population: 2,635,516
Diagnosed cases: 19,034 (10x gives about 190K)
Deaths: 344 (100x gives about 34K)
1% to 7% likely exposed.

Italy:
Population: 60 Million
Diagnosed Cases: 239,961 (10x gives about 2.4 Million)
Deaths: 34,708 (100x gives about 3.5 Million)
5% to 6% likely exposed.

Lombardy Italy:
Population: 10 Million
Diagnosed Cases: 93,587 (10X gives about 1 million)
Deaths: 16,626 (100x gives about 1.7 million)
10% to 20% likely exposed.



Ok, so I have to wonder if the reason we're seeing a steep decline in cases in New York and New Jersey is because as much as a third of the population has already been exposed in some areas. Even other parts of the North East have had a huge portion of their population exposed.

It still would leave a large population that would still be vulnerable. But, it may well make social distancing much more effective. Potentially those that are most likely to contact the disease and spread it (store clerks, those that ride the subway, etc), have already been infected and have recovered.

In some neighborhoods, it may well be even a significantly greater population exposed and having had the disease.

Several of the Northeast states seem to be acting like they've conquered the virus, and are trying to impose travel restrictions, quarantines, etc.

Yet, a more likely explanation is that they utterly failed containment, and infections are naturally waning. Of course, New York hasn't eradicated the virus yet either. They're still getting 500 to 800 new cases a day, potentially as different segments of the population are being exposed. They could get a slight resurgence, especially next fall/winter as kids go back to school. Yet, the second wave won't be as bad as the first.

Other parts of the country with a much lower exposure are still at significantly greater risk.
CliffordK is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 06:59 AM
  #2  
skookum
cyclotourist
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: calgary, canada
Posts: 1,179
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 320 Post(s)
Liked 117 Times in 72 Posts
We aren't going to know until this thing is over and we can look back. Everything is just speculation.
skookum is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 07:38 AM
  #3  
CliffordK
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
CliffordK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Eugene, Oregon, USA
Posts: 24,729
Mentioned: 196 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11741 Post(s)
Liked 1,051 Times in 816 Posts
NYT has some data by zip code.

10469, Bronx Allerton, Pelham Gardens and Baychester
Total Cases: 3,075 (4,300 per 100K) 10x gives 43%.
Deaths: 333 (466 per 100K) 100x gives 47%.

So they're rapidly approaching 50% having been infected.

Antibody tests could likely confirm as many as half the population in that zip code have been infected.

There has been some debate about long-term immunity (or partial immunity).

It is quite possible that a good number of people could stop wearing masks and resume normal activity.
CliffordK is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 07:46 AM
  #4  
Biker395 
Seat Sniffer
 
Biker395's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: SoCal
Posts: 5,024

Bikes: 2008 Scott CR1 Pro; 2006 Schwinn Fastback Pro and 1996 Colnago Decor Super C96; 2003 Univega Alpina 700; 2000 Schwinn Super Sport

Mentioned: 16 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 671 Post(s)
Liked 446 Times in 202 Posts
Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
A recent CDC report indicated that about about 10 COVID cases have gone undetected in the past for every case that has been detected. See discussion here.

If one uses the metric of about 1% mortality rate, or the CDC 10% diagnosed....

Looking at New York State:
Population: 19.45 Million
Diagnosed Cases: 391,220 (10x gives about 3.91 Million).
Deaths: 31,342 (100x gives about 3.1 million).
15% to 20% of the NY population likely exposed.

New York City:
Population: 8,336,817
Diagnosed Cases: 214,070 (10x gives about 2,1 million)
Deaths: 22,421 (100x gives about 2.2 million)
20% to 30% of the NYC population likely exposed.

New Jersey:
Population: 8.9 Million
Diagnosed Cases: 170,584 (10x gives about 1.7 Million)
Deaths: 14,914 (100x gives about 1.5 Million)
15% to 20% of NJ population likely exposed.

Hudson, New Jersey
Population: 672,391
Diagnosed Cases: 18,788 (10x gives about 188K)
Deaths: 1,445 (100x gives about 144K)
20% to 30% likely exposed.

Massachusetts:
Population: 6.9 million
Diagnosed Cases: 108,070 (10x gives about 1.08 million)
Deaths: 8,012 (100X gives about 800K)
11% to 16% likely exposed.

Florida
Population: 21 Million
Diagnosed Cases: 122,960 (10x gives about 1.23 million)
Deaths: 3,366 (100x gives about 337K)
1.6% to 6% likely exposed.

Texas
Population: 29 million
Diagnosed cases: 140,173 (10x gives 1.4 million)
Deaths: 2,354 (100x gives about 235K)
1% to 5% likely exposed

Dallas Texas
Population: 2,635,516
Diagnosed cases: 19,034 (10x gives about 190K)
Deaths: 344 (100x gives about 34K)
1% to 7% likely exposed.

Italy:
Population: 60 Million
Diagnosed Cases: 239,961 (10x gives about 2.4 Million)
Deaths: 34,708 (100x gives about 3.5 Million)
5% to 6% likely exposed.

Lombardy Italy:
Population: 10 Million
Diagnosed Cases: 93,587 (10X gives about 1 million)
Deaths: 16,626 (100x gives about 1.7 million)
10% to 20% likely exposed.



Ok, so I have to wonder if the reason we're seeing a steep decline in cases in New York and New Jersey is because as much as a third of the population has already been exposed in some areas. Even other parts of the North East have had a huge portion of their population exposed.

It still would leave a large population that would still be vulnerable. But, it may well make social distancing much more effective. Potentially those that are most likely to contact the disease and spread it (store clerks, those that ride the subway, etc), have already been infected and have recovered.

In some neighborhoods, it may well be even a significantly greater population exposed and having had the disease.

Several of the Northeast states seem to be acting like they've conquered the virus, and are trying to impose travel restrictions, quarantines, etc.

Yet, a more likely explanation is that they utterly failed containment, and infections are naturally waning. Of course, New York hasn't eradicated the virus yet either. They're still getting 500 to 800 new cases a day, potentially as different segments of the population are being exposed. They could get a slight resurgence, especially next fall/winter as kids go back to school. Yet, the second wave won't be as bad as the first.

Other parts of the country with a much lower exposure are still at significantly greater risk.
Yep. Any natural herd immunity is helpful, as it is that much harder for the virus to spread. It is not a binary function.

Reference back to that study I posted some time ago. It postulated that an HIT as low as in the upper 20s might be enough to keep the virus in check, when one adds social distancing and includes the fact that the virus starts by picking low-laying fruit first. Their models closely tracked the pandemic trajectory in Italy and I think France.
__________________
Proud parent of a happy inner child ...

Biker395 is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 08:25 AM
  #5  
genec
genec
 
genec's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: West Coast
Posts: 26,625

Bikes: custom built, sannino, beachbike, giant trance x2

Mentioned: 44 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 8874 Post(s)
Liked 1,217 Times in 837 Posts
According to Johns Hopkins.... about 70% of the population have to have antibodies... either by infection or injection.

As with any other infection, there are two ways to achieve herd immunity: A large proportion of the population either gets infected or gets a protective vaccine. Based on early estimates of this virus’s infectiousness, we will likely need at least 70% of the population to be immune to have herd protection.
  • In the worst case (for example, if we do not perform physical distancing or enact other measures to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2), the virus can infect this many people in a matter of a few months. This would overwhelm our hospitals and lead to high death rates.
  • In the best case, we maintain current levels of infection—or even reduce these levels—until a vaccine becomes available. This will take concerted effort on the part of the entire population, with some level of continued physical distancing for an extended period, likely a year or longer, before a highly effective vaccine can be developed, tested, and mass produced.
  • The most likely case is somewhere in the middle, where infection rates rise and fall over time; we may relax social distancing measures when numbers of infections fall, and then may need to re-implement these measures as numbers increase again. Prolonged effort will be required to prevent major outbreaks until a vaccine is developed. Even then, SARS-CoV-2 could still infect children before they can be vaccinated or adults after their immunity wanes. But it is unlikely in the long term to have the explosive spread that we are seeing right now because much of the population will be immune in the future.
https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/artic...h-covid19.html
genec is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 08:43 AM
  #6  
jack pot 
Fxxxxr
 
jack pot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: falfurrias texas
Posts: 580

Bikes: wabi classic (stolen & recovered)

Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 629 Post(s)
Liked 294 Times in 202 Posts
herd immunity is another false hope .... it takes years & years & years & YEARS . jesus2 may even show before there is "herd" immunity ... herd immunity didn't not save many during the great dinosaurus virus of 65 million BC ... how's herd immunity for anthrax or polio or mumps
__________________
... and so it goes
jack pot is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 08:50 AM
  #7  
wgscott
Occam's Rotor
 
wgscott's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 6,283
Mentioned: 61 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2366 Post(s)
Liked 1,373 Times in 706 Posts
You need about 93% for measles. For flu, it isn't clear it has ever been approached -- too many seasonal variants. Remember, these are viruses for which we have vaccines.

We are nowhere close. To see the effects, you will need to see the transfer rate go below 1.

wgscott is offline  
Likes For wgscott:
Old 06-27-20, 10:12 AM
  #8  
Biker395 
Seat Sniffer
 
Biker395's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: SoCal
Posts: 5,024

Bikes: 2008 Scott CR1 Pro; 2006 Schwinn Fastback Pro and 1996 Colnago Decor Super C96; 2003 Univega Alpina 700; 2000 Schwinn Super Sport

Mentioned: 16 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 671 Post(s)
Liked 446 Times in 202 Posts
Originally Posted by genec View Post
According to Johns Hopkins.... about 70% of the population have to have antibodies... either by infection or injection.



https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/artic...h-covid19.html
Yes ... but that is the required number without social distancing and other measures that reduce Ro. Herd immunity, even less than the HIT, helps, and when combined with other measures, can keep infections down.
__________________
Proud parent of a happy inner child ...

Biker395 is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 10:25 AM
  #9  
CliffordK
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
CliffordK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Eugene, Oregon, USA
Posts: 24,729
Mentioned: 196 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11741 Post(s)
Liked 1,051 Times in 816 Posts
The term "Herd Immunity" and actual numbers appear to be thrown around a bit.

My point was that some neighborhoods in New York, New Jersey, and other areas may well be approaching 20% to 50% past infections. Of course these are pretty crude measurements, and a widespread test for antibodies would be needed to get better numbers.

Could a test like the the Mantoux tuberculin test be developed that would be cheap and accurate to administer?

As @Biker395 suggests, the disease transmission is all about the "R-Value". How many each infected individual infects to spread the virus.

Get the number below 1, and the disease will die out, or be a lot easier to manage.

We're not necessarily at a point where vulnerable people would be safe, but are likely at a point where it impacts infection rates.

Quarantines and travel restrictions may not make much overall difference.
CliffordK is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 12:19 PM
  #10  
wgscott
Occam's Rotor
 
wgscott's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 6,283
Mentioned: 61 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2366 Post(s)
Liked 1,373 Times in 706 Posts
What is your evidence that people who have been infected cannot get reinfected in the future, especially with variant strains of the virus that have spike protein differences? Or is this just wishful thinking?
wgscott is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 12:50 PM
  #11  
jack pot 
Fxxxxr
 
jack pot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: falfurrias texas
Posts: 580

Bikes: wabi classic (stolen & recovered)

Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 629 Post(s)
Liked 294 Times in 202 Posts
as as hard evidence goes all the vaccine > herd immmunity > steroid > plasma > sunny side crap is no closer to fruition than trump when he says "maybe it will just go away"
__________________
... and so it goes
jack pot is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 01:04 PM
  #12  
CliffordK
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
CliffordK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Eugene, Oregon, USA
Posts: 24,729
Mentioned: 196 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11741 Post(s)
Liked 1,051 Times in 816 Posts
Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
What is your evidence that people who have been infected cannot get reinfected in the future, especially with variant strains of the virus that have spike protein differences? Or is this just wishful thinking?
Good point. We don't really know. There does seem to be a range of antibody responses from very low level to significant levels.

There don't seem to be a large number of reports of second infections. If people seem to get the disease a second time, one needs to know if the first infection was cleared, or it was perhaps a relapse of a latent infection, or even a carrier.

Nonetheless, the expectation is that a second independent exposure to a pathogen will trigger a more robust immune response and more mild infection.

SARS and MERS were eradicated. With the widespread disease in the USA and other countries, and the number of substrains, this disease could be here to stay, and just another endemic cornavirus.

So we may be able to knock this virus down, but the never infected won't truly be safe until a vaccine is developed.
CliffordK is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 01:08 PM
  #13  
wgscott
Occam's Rotor
 
wgscott's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 6,283
Mentioned: 61 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2366 Post(s)
Liked 1,373 Times in 706 Posts
SARS was contained. MERS is still very active. It kills about 1/3 to 1/2 of the people it infects, so it doesn't spread as much.
wgscott is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 01:12 PM
  #14  
skookum
cyclotourist
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: calgary, canada
Posts: 1,179
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 320 Post(s)
Liked 117 Times in 72 Posts
Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
SARS was contained. MERS is still very active. It kills about 1/3 to 1/2 of the people it infects, so it doesn't spread as much.
Thats what we need. A more lethal disease.
skookum is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 01:21 PM
  #15  
3alarmer
Friendship is Magic
 
3alarmer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: The Big Tomato
Posts: 18,914

Bikes: old ones

Mentioned: 259 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 18641 Post(s)
Liked 2,154 Times in 1,583 Posts
.
...Ebola for the win.
3alarmer is online now  
Likes For 3alarmer:
Old 06-27-20, 01:36 PM
  #16  
CliffordK
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
CliffordK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Eugene, Oregon, USA
Posts: 24,729
Mentioned: 196 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11741 Post(s)
Liked 1,051 Times in 816 Posts
Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
.
...Ebola for the win.
Each outbreak kills a few thousand. Very deadly.

However, COVID-19 has killed nearly a half a million and still counting.

Of course, Malaria is also one of the more deadly diseases in overall deaths, killing around a half million people every year.
CliffordK is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 02:51 PM
  #17  
Hondo Gravel
Viking Berserker
 
Hondo Gravel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Hondo,Texas
Posts: 1,874

Bikes: Too many Motobecanes

Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1328 Post(s)
Liked 1,234 Times in 801 Posts
I sat in the garage drank beer until 4 AM listening to music that could potentially kill me. Sleeping until 2 PM and I’m thinking so what? This crazy covid virus has shut everything down so why not drink beer all night and sleep all day? In a few hours I will go ride my bike for about 3 hours which is safe since I’m the only one. Sometimes I see this lady jogging but that’s about it. I guess what I’m trying to say at times it becomes hard not to become depressed not suicidal Just bummed out. I had a lot of bike adventures and concerts for summer 2020 all scrapped so finding ways to stay sane is a priority. Texas not taking this seriously was a mistake. I saw it coming with people being careless. I’ll slam a few energy drinks get some much needed endorphins from a bike ride.
Hondo Gravel is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 05:57 PM
  #18  
CliffordK
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
CliffordK's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: Eugene, Oregon, USA
Posts: 24,729
Mentioned: 196 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11741 Post(s)
Liked 1,051 Times in 816 Posts
Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
I sat in the garage drank beer until 4 AM listening to music that could potentially kill me. Sleeping until 2 PM and Iím thinking so what? This crazy covid virus has shut everything down so why not drink beer all night and sleep all day? In a few hours I will go ride my bike for about 3 hours which is safe since Iím the only one. Sometimes I see this lady jogging but thatís about it. I guess what Iím trying to say at times it becomes hard not to become depressed not suicidal Just bummed out. I had a lot of bike adventures and concerts for summer 2020 all scrapped so finding ways to stay sane is a priority. Texas not taking this seriously was a mistake. I saw it coming with people being careless. Iíll slam a few energy drinks get some much needed endorphins from a bike ride.
Try some self-supported tours, and small group tours. You could have fun.
CliffordK is offline  
Likes For CliffordK:
Old 06-27-20, 06:02 PM
  #19  
Biker395 
Seat Sniffer
 
Biker395's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: SoCal
Posts: 5,024

Bikes: 2008 Scott CR1 Pro; 2006 Schwinn Fastback Pro and 1996 Colnago Decor Super C96; 2003 Univega Alpina 700; 2000 Schwinn Super Sport

Mentioned: 16 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 671 Post(s)
Liked 446 Times in 202 Posts
Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
What is your evidence that people who have been infected cannot get reinfected in the future, especially with variant strains of the virus that have spike protein differences? Or is this just wishful thinking?
You certainly know more about this than I, but everything I have read indicates that the only way to know how Ďdurableí the immunity is is to wait and see. Since we have only been dealing with the virus for 6 months or so, that is all they can say for now.

But I have also read that based on similar viruses, the expect immunity to be reasonably durable. There have been anecdotal instances of reinfection, but Iíve read nothing yet that shows that immunity is short lived. Is there such data?
__________________
Proud parent of a happy inner child ...

Biker395 is offline  
Likes For Biker395:
Old 06-27-20, 08:15 PM
  #20  
Hondo Gravel
Viking Berserker
 
Hondo Gravel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Hondo,Texas
Posts: 1,874

Bikes: Too many Motobecanes

Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1328 Post(s)
Liked 1,234 Times in 801 Posts
Saw absolutely no one on my 31-32 mile bike ride today. Except one pickup truck cruised by. Not complaining... I think I’m social distancing enough.



New loose gravel in this section. Makes handling the bike a bit tricky.
Hondo Gravel is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 08:23 PM
  #21  
wgscott
Occam's Rotor
 
wgscott's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 6,283
Mentioned: 61 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2366 Post(s)
Liked 1,373 Times in 706 Posts
Originally Posted by Hondo Gravel View Post
Saw absolutely no one on my 31-32 mile bike ride today. Except one pickup truck cruised by.
Let me guess. He didn't make the slightest attempt to move over when he passed you.
wgscott is offline  
Old 06-27-20, 08:25 PM
  #22  
wgscott
Occam's Rotor
 
wgscott's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 6,283
Mentioned: 61 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2366 Post(s)
Liked 1,373 Times in 706 Posts
Originally Posted by Biker395 View Post
You certainly know more about this than I
I don't.

I think this thing behaves in a very weird way.
wgscott is offline  
Likes For wgscott:
Old 06-27-20, 08:34 PM
  #23  
Hondo Gravel
Viking Berserker
 
Hondo Gravel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Hondo,Texas
Posts: 1,874

Bikes: Too many Motobecanes

Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1328 Post(s)
Liked 1,234 Times in 801 Posts
Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Let me guess. He didn't make the slightest attempt to move over when he passed you.
Actually the pickup moved over and slow down to cut down on dust. No through traffic most vehicles are people who live near. Rarely do I encounter a jackalope.
Hondo Gravel is offline  
Likes For Hondo Gravel:
Old 06-28-20, 05:06 AM
  #24  
indyfabz
Senior Member
 
indyfabz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 27,464
Mentioned: 193 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11706 Post(s)
Liked 3,541 Times in 1,887 Posts
Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
Try some self-supported tours, and small group tours. You could have fun.
Supposed to do my first one on Wednesday. Had I not had to cancel my planned June trip I would be flying home from Montana today after two weeks of riding. One issue for some is that campgrounds might still be closed. PA and NJ only recently opened state park campgrounds. NJ ones are only open at 50% capacity. Places in both states are heavily booked even outside the upcoming holiday weekend as people make up for lost time.
indyfabz is offline  
Likes For indyfabz:
Old 06-28-20, 07:23 AM
  #25  
clubman 
Youngman Grand
 
clubman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Nova Scotia
Posts: 6,619

Bikes: roadsters, club bikes, fixed and classic

Mentioned: 93 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1430 Post(s)
Liked 482 Times in 323 Posts
Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
.

Quarantines and travel restrictions may not make much overall difference.
Quarantines and travel restrictions and social distancing are the only things that will work, for now. We shut down our provincial borders here, most everyone wears masks and obeys self-isolation. Result...no new infections in Nova Scotia, PEI or Newfoundland in weeks. Zero.
I'm seriously worried about you guys south of the 49th. You have to listen to and empower health authorities and bureaucrats to make critical decisions. Politicians are inherently incapable of making sound unbiased decisions and should be focused on getting financial support into the hands of everyone who needs it. No one will open their borders to America until you get this thing under control.
clubman is offline  
Likes For clubman:

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.