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When do we see the impact of "Herd Immunity"?

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When do we see the impact of "Herd Immunity"?

Old 07-13-20, 08:06 AM
  #126  
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Old 07-13-20, 08:07 AM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post


Back to the 1% rule... 28,388 dead implies about 2.8 million infected out of about a 47 million population..
Is this why you were so shocked by the death tolls reported by Johns Hopkins?

The "1% rule" is pure speculative fiction.
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Old 07-15-20, 03:25 AM
  #128  
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Originally Posted by SHBR View Post
If you spent as much time looking for actual facts as you do looking for memes to clog up useful threads, you might be a little more informed.
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Old 07-15-20, 07:56 AM
  #129  
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Data collection in the USA to be "streamlined", so I guess it'll be hard to work out whats going on there now:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...m_npd_nn_tw_ma
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Old 07-15-20, 05:39 PM
  #130  
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
Data collection in the USA to be "streamlined", so I guess it'll be hard to work out whats going on there now:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...m_npd_nn_tw_ma
Hard to say what kind of a play Trump is trying.

Around here we are still at a stage where we can do, and the government is doing contact tracing.

I don't think contact tracing is something the Donald can do from his office with 67,400 new cases a day.

I.E. There no possible way the local governments will allow themselves to be taken out of the loop.
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Old 07-15-20, 05:45 PM
  #131  
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Article in The Atlantic

A New Understanding of Herd Immunity

The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it.
We have the wealth in this country to care for people, and to set the herd-immunity threshold where we choose. Parts of the world are illuminating a third way forward, something in between total lockdown and simply resuming the old ways of life. It happens through individual choices and collective actions, reimagining new ways of living, and having the state support and leadership to make those ways possible. For as much attention as we give to the virus, and to drugs and our immune systems, the variable in the system is us. There will only be as much chaos as we allow.
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Old 07-15-20, 06:10 PM
  #132  
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I'm sorry if this simple question has been beat to death but why is there an underlying assumption that herd immunity is a real panacea for this virus? Wouldn't we have stopped vaccines for measles if parents were passing immunity down through their families?
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Old 07-15-20, 06:40 PM
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Originally Posted by clubman View Post
I'm sorry if this simple question has been beat to death but why is there an underlying assumption that herd immunity is a real panacea for this virus? Wouldn't we have stopped vaccines for measles if parents were passing immunity down through their families?
I don't think it is a panacea, ie we're never going to see herd immunity if the virus runs it's natural course in the absence of a vaccine. Well, we may see it in some third world country where lots of people get sick.
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Old 07-15-20, 06:41 PM
  #134  
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vaccines are a large part of creating herd immunity.
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Old 07-15-20, 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by clubman View Post
I'm sorry if this simple question has been beat to death but why is there an underlying assumption that herd immunity is a real panacea for this virus? Wouldn't we have stopped vaccines for measles if parents were passing immunity down through their families?
The idea is that in the absence of a vaccine, herd immunity is the only thing that will slow the growth of the virus in a population.

That would mean it is with us indefinitely, and the current pandemic would end when we reach levels of “herd immunity,” traditionally defined as the threshold at which enough people in a group have immune protection so the virus can no longer cause huge spikes in disease.
The concept of herd immunity comes from vaccination policy, in which it’s used to calculate the number of people who need to be vaccinated in order to ensure the safety of the population. But a coronavirus vaccine is still far off, and last month, Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that, because of a “general anti-science, anti-authority, anti-vaccine feeling,” the U.S. is “unlikely” to achieve herd immunity even after a vaccine is available.
Back in February, Lipsitch gave a very rough estimate that, absent intervention, herd immunity might happen after 40 to 70 percent of the population had been infected. The idea of hitting this level of infection implied grim forecasts about disease and death. The case-fatality rate for COVID-19 is now very roughly 1 percent overall. In the absolute simplest, linear model, if 70 percent of the world were to get infected, that would mean more than 54 million deaths.
So, not a panacea, but the only way to see the end of the pandemic.

I don't think you can pass measles immunity down through families.Measles is very infective and everybody used to get it as a kid. I had it. Adults had immunity because they were infected as children. Lots of kids used to die or had lifelong problems because of measles.



quotations are from the Atlantic article referenced above..

Last edited by skookum; 07-15-20 at 07:08 PM. Reason: more info
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Old 07-15-20, 07:26 PM
  #136  
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
I don't think it is a panacea, ie we're never going to see herd immunity if the virus runs it's natural course in the absence of a vaccine.
The crux of the problem maybe? Too many ignore safety precautions, passively spreading the virus while assuming we'll get back to normal quickly. It's a view shared by too many.
Thanks for the responses.
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Old 07-17-20, 08:47 AM
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Good article in Arse Technica:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...s-complicated/

It's a summary of this paper that just appeared in Nature:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
that is entitled:

SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in cases of COVID-19 and SARS, and uninfected controls


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Old 07-17-20, 09:24 AM
  #138  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Good article in Arse Technica:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...s-complicated/

It's a summary of this paper that just appeared in Nature:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z
that is entitled:

SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in cases of COVID-19 and SARS, and uninfected controls


The other aspect that came out of that article was that this is continuing ongoing research and we do not have all the answers... which is to say that we should all be prepared to respond to change as new data/discoveries are made... and not continue to cite what we thought back in February, or March... or whenever. This is a moving target.
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Old 07-19-20, 01:23 PM
  #139  
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
I don't think it is a panacea, ie we're never going to see herd immunity if the virus runs it's natural course in the absence of a vaccine. Well, we may see it in some third world country where lots of people get sick.
>>> NO true trialed vaccine has EVER been deliverable on a mass scale within 2 years from the date it is certified to go. herd immunity via vaccination is a misnomer. vaccines are artificial preventatives and each generation must be vaccinated en masse. for instance the effort to eradicate SMALL POX took place over decades and millions died every year while vaccinations were going on. natural herd immunity is a generational adaptation to a pathogen so real herd immunity without a vaccine could possibly occur by 3000AD >>> all evidence to the contrary is wishful vaccine speculation promoted by stock profiteers betting on COVID vaccine companies like derivatives.
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Old 07-29-20, 09:10 PM
  #140  
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When do we see the impact of "Herd Impunity'

We're seeing it right now Groups acting (quite successfully) with complete impunity. This fall, with schools opening and football happening, we will be seeing far larger gatherings in full impunity.

Denial - it works. (A positive is physical proof that there was a lapse in denial.)

Off topic - I just had my denial lapse. Bit into a large piece of very hot pepper. Normally I can tolerate quite hot but this is fire and hiccups. Quite real. (And early in the summer for a farmer's market pepper that hot.)
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Old 07-29-20, 11:24 PM
  #141  
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
>>> NO true trialed vaccine has EVER been deliverable on a mass scale within 2 years from the date it is certified to go. herd immunity via vaccination is a misnomer. vaccines are artificial preventatives and each generation must be vaccinated en masse. for instance the effort to eradicate SMALL POX took place over decades and millions died every year while vaccinations were going on. natural herd immunity is a generational adaptation to a pathogen so real herd immunity without a vaccine could possibly occur by 3000AD >>> all evidence to the contrary is wishful vaccine speculation promoted by stock profiteers betting on COVID vaccine companies like derivatives.
...you ought to do some studyin' up on what is meant by the term "herd immunity" in modern epidemiology before you start giving TED talks on the subject, Bubba.
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Old 07-30-20, 05:25 AM
  #142  
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^^^^ "Ultimately, the only way for societies to return to some semblance of normal in the wake of the current pandemic is to reach a state called herd immunity. This is where a large-enough percentage of the population has acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2—either through infection or a vaccine—that most people exposed to the virus are already immune to it. This will mean that the infection rate will slow and eventually fizzle out, protecting society as a whole" .>>> excerpted from arstechnica mag & posted by a lab rat the article affirms what i posted. in fact most of my COVID posts are derivative of lab rat's open sourced medical data and do not come from reading the 1st sentence of a wikipedia article like some.

If one wants to consider that a vaccine program can create covid HERD IMMUNITY they are in for a generational wait at best if ever. there are no contrary examples to the small pox or measles eradications by vaccinations and even those are STILL ongoing. it would help your thought process if you would read a few articles posted by your lab rat buddies you will find that nothing i have posted contradicts "todays" science but i do tend away from herd immunity optimism of the vaccine dreamers because safely vaccinating a million elites by 2022 leaves many many more to slog thru a life with COVID becoming the #3 cause of death in the USA behind heart disease & cancer. what you and many seem to want is MAGA and be 1st to get YOUR vaccine & YOUR herd will be immune and to hell with all of US who are not part of the Immune herd. in the meantime don't worry pretty soon there will enough medicine for the rest. that is not HERD IMMUNITY that is UNNATURAL SELECTION. now go eat one of MR SWINGLE's "naturally occurring" tangelos and you'll feel better about yourself.
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Old 07-30-20, 10:01 AM
  #143  
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Originally Posted by 3alarmer View Post
...you ought to do some studyin' up on what is meant by the term "herd immunity" in modern epidemiology before you start giving TED talks on the subject, Bubba.
If we all put him on ignore, we don't even have to read his stuff when it is quoted.

Kind of like herd immunity.

Except different.
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Old 07-30-20, 10:42 AM
  #144  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
If we all put him on ignore, we don't even have to read his stuff when it is quoted.

Kind of like herd immunity.

Except different.
...I interpret this to mean you are against TED talks, and I am outraged.
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Old 07-30-20, 11:09 AM
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...here is your original statement, which appears to be in error based on speculation. (In all honesty, I have no idea at all whether this particular disease might be approachable with vaccination as a control. No one does.) I'm just speaking to your misconception of how the term is used in modern epidemiology, and how the concept works.:

Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
>>> NO true trialed vaccine has EVER been deliverable on a mass scale within 2 years from the date it is certified to go. herd immunity via vaccination is a misnomer. vaccines are artificial preventatives and each generation must be vaccinated en masse. for instance the effort to eradicate SMALL POX took place over decades and millions died every year while vaccinations were going on. natural herd immunity is a generational adaptation to a pathogen so real herd immunity without a vaccine could possibly occur by 3000AD >>> all evidence to the contrary is wishful vaccine speculation promoted by stock profiteers betting on COVID vaccine companies like derivatives.
Herd immunity, as a concept, has no preferences at all as to how the immunity of the various members of the herd achieve it. You appear to be touting some kind of "natural is better" philosophy of medicine here. I like eating free range chicken just as much as the next guy, but you're way off in the weeds here.

...here is your followup:

Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
^^^^ "Ultimately, the only way for societies to return to some semblance of normal in the wake of the current pandemic is to reach a state called herd immunity. This is where a large-enough percentage of the population has acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2—either through infection or a vaccine—that most people exposed to the virus are already immune to it. This will mean that the infection rate will slow and eventually fizzle out, protecting society as a whole" .>>> excerpted from arstechnica mag & posted by a lab rat the article affirms what i posted. in fact most of my COVID posts are derivative of lab rat's open sourced medical data and do not come from reading the 1st sentence of a wikipedia article like some.
...no. What this affirms is the role of confirmation bias in maintaining cognitive dissonance.

Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
If one wants to consider that a vaccine program can create covid HERD IMMUNITY they are in for a generational wait at best if ever.
...your own initial statement posits a wait of two years in some cases. Again, vaccines might never work on this disease as a control via herd immunity, but two years is only a generational wait for rabbits. Maybe rats, too.

Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
there are no contrary examples to the small pox or measles eradications by vaccinations and even those are STILL ongoing. it would help your thought process if you would read a few articles posted by your lab rat buddies you will find that nothing i have posted contradicts "todays" science but i do tend away from herd immunity optimism of the vaccine dreamers because safely vaccinating a million elites by 2022 leaves many many more to slog thru a life with COVID becoming the #3 cause of death in the USA behind heart disease & cancer. what you and many seem to want is MAGA and be 1st to get YOUR vaccine & YOUR herd will be immune and to hell with all of US who are not part of the Immune herd. in the meantime don't worry pretty soon there will enough medicine for the rest. that is not HERD IMMUNITY that is UNNATURAL SELECTION. now go eat one of MR SWINGLE's "naturally occurring" tangelos and you'll feel better about yourself.
...my thought process is fine, and ad hominem arguments don't much help here. You're still wrong. Not because you are deficient in any particular area other than basic knowledge, but possibly because you are reading yourself stupid. That, and your propensity to misinterpret the evolutionary process according to some weird theory of your own devising. And the tangelos will be delicious this year, if the current fruit set is any indication. Right now I am paying more attention to the Fuji apples, on which I used some unnatural selection this year by spraying for codling moth a few times.

The whole principle is if you give a vaccine to somebody, you protect them from getting infected, but you also prevent them from transmitting the disease to other people.
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/news/...-it-protect-us
Last week, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, said it is unlikely the coronavirus will ever be eradicated.

While the virus may not totally disappear, it’s possible world leaders and public health officials could work to bring the virus down to “low levels,” he told the TB Alliance.

“I think with a combination of good public health measures, a degree of global herd immunity and a good vaccine, which I do hope and feel cautiously optimistic that we will get, I think when we put all three of those together, we will get control of this, whether it’s this year or next year. I’m not certain,” he said.

But, he added, “I don’t really see us eradicating it.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/29/who-...of-people.html
...I agree with Fauci on this. When you construct an argument that no one is making (i.e. that we can eliminate this disease via vaccine and herd immunity), then proceed to shoot holes in it using your random science quotes, that's called a strawman argument. It's a logical fallacy. And you still appear to have no clue what herd immunity means. Which was my initial statement to you. You need to do better, or people will put you on ignore.
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Old 07-30-20, 11:22 AM
  #146  
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
Full aquatic Egyptian....
The truly remarkable thing is that the meme author (and presumably the propagator) seems to have completely missed out on one small detail: the plexiglass is put in place to protect the cashier from the potentially infected customers, not the other way around. (The meme-people just assume the people put at high risk, enabling them to buy toilet paper and plastic junk with abandon, are disposable non-humans whose lives simply don't matter.)
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Old 07-30-20, 11:24 AM
  #147  
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
^^^^ "Ultimately, the only way for societies to return to some semblance of normal in the wake of the current pandemic is to reach a state called herd immunity.
Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
natural herd immunity is a generational adaptation to a pathogen so real herd immunity without a vaccine could possibly occur by 3000AD

A little all over the place here. There is a concept of evolution, where the the host and the pathogen evolve to be less lethal. Part of the problem with Europeans bringing "novel" diseases to the indigenous Americans.

COVID is different. At least at this point, young people seem to be able to catch the disease and acquire some degree of immunity. If the disease is here to stay, hard to say how that will impact over the decades as immunity wanes and the disease mutates. But, a child that gets the disease now might be less vulnerable in 50 years.

Nonetheless, this disease also seems to be much harder on the elderly than those in the child bearing years. So, it may not impact genetics as much as knocking out society's elders and their "wisdom". This could certainly have significant tribal impact in many areas, but may not impact evolution.

We have different countries shutting this disease down at different levels.

Vietnam has had 464 cases with a population of 95 million, or infecting about 1 person in 200,000. ZERO FATALITIES. To a large extent, they can return to "normal" within the country, but have to be concerned about re-importing the disease.

China, the epicenter of this whole fiasco has had about 87,000 cases with a population of 1.4 Billion, or infecting about 1 person in 20,000. They may well be able to control the disease and return to "normal", again with the risk of re-importing the disease, and interruptions to international travel.

Sweden has about 80,000 documented cases, but likely closer to between 1/2 million and 1 million total cases, out of a population of 10 million. So, perhaps close to 1 person in 10 infected. To a large extent many Swedes have never stopped "normal", although I think the elderly are now being isolated better. Both new infections and mortality is down a lot.

We began this topic with the Northeast USA. They got hit hard and early. Yet, they are also seeing new cases trickle in without a second wave like most of the rest of the country has been experiencing. Likely parts of New York and New Jersey got a 20% to 50% infection rate. One of the highest infection densities in the world. I think they have some strong social restrictions in place now, but are resuming much of their "normal" activities.
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Old 07-30-20, 11:35 AM
  #148  
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Originally Posted by Trevtassie View Post
Data collection in the USA to be "streamlined", so I guess it'll be hard to work out whats going on there now:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...m_npd_nn_tw_ma
If you look at the official curve of new cases, you see it went flat 7/16. So this worked. They flattened the curve by changing reporting agencies. Brilliant! (Too bad they didn't know this 600 years ago. Millions could have been saved from the plague.)

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Old 07-30-20, 11:36 AM
  #149  
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It is interesting comparing SARS and COVID.

SARS hit hard, and spread around the globe, but with a robust government response it was able to be kept in pockets and was eventually eradicated.

COVID spreads easier, with less severity (easier to miss).

Nonetheless, a number of countries have been able to shut it down. If that had been done around the globe, we would be in the mop-up phase now (which could last for some time). Yet, we are left with countries with vastly different infection rates, with the USA, Brazil, and India having rapidly growing numbers of people infected, and China, Vietnam, and New Zealand having mostly imported cases.

The same thing is playing out within the USA, with some counties being essentially free of community spread of the disease, but continuously getting pounded with imported cases from areas with the disease out of control.
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Old 07-30-20, 01:07 PM
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SOME of you got smoke in your eyes and can't read in context >>> the LAB RAT is right in most of what he says but all he is saying is that science is going to win when ... ? there is no medical explanation of why there are a disparate cluster of COVID symptoms yet as of TODAY science is trying to create a vaccine, a vaccine for a virus that it does not completely understand SHOW ME ONE INSTANCE WHERE THAT HAS EVER BEEN DONE: and from this scenario some of you try and snooker me with this HERD IMMUNITY is around the corner fantasy > here's another article showing the complexity of COVID etiology & similar to lab rat's many articles which i have read
Published online 2020 Apr 23. doi: PMCID: PMC7177072PMID: 32335171

Clinical and epidemiological features of COVID-19 family clusters in Beijing, China

Rui Song,a,b,1 Bing Han,a,1 Meihua Song,a,1 Lin Wang,a,1 Christopher P. Conlon,c,d Tao Dong,d,e Di Tian,aWei Zhang,a Zhihai Chen,a,b Fujie Zhang,a,b Mang Shi,f,⁎⁎ and Xingwang Lia,b,⁎
Author information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaime > those that can read can see that im saying a vaccine for a few is not HERD IMMUNITY. CK is an optimist & that's OK but the fireman is a wanna be that doesn't understand that subtle distinctions in language are necessary to explain concepts and HERD IMMUNITY is a concept. all this criticism is based on what some of you want to occur even tho it has never occurred before. anecdotes aside europe is in regression as is china and russia. when one speaks of "imported" cases, one is merely affirming how COVID spreads ie ALL Covid cases in the US were imported.
if all you desire is to mob me i got no problem because this is bike world and no body is smarter than the next guy in bike world but you ducks that think you got real world cred should use it in the real world not here. notice that i don't IGNORE or attack or ridicule any lower case efforts regardless of how sadly telling some are. i prefer to post my thought and read your thought(s) but it is necessary to have a thought and not just say that mine is wrong............AND BTW anyone would be cracked & potted to take seriously anything posted by a person who can't even read a wikipedia article about fruit and get it right
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