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A vaccine to the market?

Old 07-26-20, 10:04 AM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
Yes, there was Oppenheimer, scientifically, but also a particular military guy (general?) who was the top administrator, interfacing with the government, etc. I'd have to look up his name again.

Got it: LtGen Leslie Groves
And his boss would have been FDR.
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Old 07-26-20, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
in any case there is the looming issue that because the vaccine race seems to be nationalized, the weaponizing of any cure has enormous geopolitical consequences. the nation that solves the COVID riddle has little incentive to benefit its rivals until it maximizes its vaccine use. the MANHATTAN PROJECT analogy as well as trump's nationalism bears this out. such an occurrence is fraught with irrational scenarios as vaccine less masses in other nations create national clamors & nuclear states demand access or else. suffice to say that absent rigid authoritarianism even the nation that develops a vaccine will be confronted with massive problems caused by how and in what order it chooses to inoculate. BTW if you think the US really is 3-4 yrs lagging, you are foreseeing the end of america as you ever knew it to be.
I am changing my answer. I pull the number 7 from my magic hat, so China is 7 years ahead of us.
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Old 07-26-20, 12:56 PM
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The only way for the US to close that 7 year gap will be to get rid of all health and safety regs regarding coronavirus vaccines and treatments.
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Old 07-26-20, 01:02 PM
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nonono, China is incontrovertibly 42 years ahead of us in terms of developing a vaccine for covid-19. The Wuhan Institute of Virology has obviously been weaponizing this virus and engineering the vaccine for decades. That's why nobody in China died, they were all already vaccinated
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Old 07-26-20, 01:15 PM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by wgscott View Post
Why this isn't being pursued as a Manhattan Project-type enterprise by the NIH and the national lab infrastructure we currently have in this country is a mystery to me.
I suspect having 100 different labs around the world going "all in" on the effort is likely to bring greater results sooner, on this. Given the distributed expertise globally, and genome mapping/cracking technology being what it is, having "all cylinders" firing rather than just a couple of closely-held labs doesn't sound like a bad thing. Assuming, of course, standards are met, safety is validated, etc.
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Old 07-26-20, 01:21 PM
  #31  
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42 years is still better than 9.4607 × 10^12 km years. I am ok with that.

ps. 9.4607 × 10 ^12 km is a light year

Last edited by CycleryNorth81; 07-26-20 at 01:25 PM. Reason: super script
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Old 07-26-20, 01:34 PM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post
42 years is still better than 9.4607 × 10^12 km years. I am ok with that.

ps. 9.4607 × 10 ^12 km is a light year
I am going to be pedantic and point out that a light year is a measure of distance, not time.
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Old 07-26-20, 01:41 PM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
I am going to be pedantic and point out that a light year is a measure of distance, not time.
I was referring to light years since someone brought that up.
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Old 07-26-20, 01:43 PM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
The only way for the US to close that 7 year gap will be to get rid of all health and safety regs regarding coronavirus vaccines and treatments.
Hmm, this would turn ME into an antivaxxer.
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Old 07-26-20, 01:44 PM
  #35  
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I am going to be pedantic and point out that a light year is a measure of distance, not time.
NERD, don't ruin the joke
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Old 07-26-20, 02:15 PM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
I suspect having 100 different labs around the world going "all in" on the effort is likely to bring greater results sooner, on this. Given the distributed expertise globally, and genome mapping/cracking technology being what it is, having "all cylinders" firing rather than just a couple of closely-held labs doesn't sound like a bad thing. Assuming, of course, standards are met, safety is validated, etc.
are there any vaccine alliances or is there merely some informal international cooperation taking place. the US will soon be out of the WHO so which nations are the US collaborating.? BTW some of you lab rats should read up on Leslie Grove, you might learn something
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Last edited by jack pot; 07-26-20 at 02:21 PM.
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Old 07-26-20, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
NERD, don't ruin the joke
It wasn't that funny.
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Old 07-26-20, 05:09 PM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
I am going to be pedantic and point out that a light year is a measure of distance, not time.
>>> time is a concept. light years can be a term of art. most importantly, in order to be PEDANTIC one must know SEMANTICS
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Old 07-27-20, 01:09 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by jack pot View Post
are there any vaccine alliances or is there merely some informal international cooperation taking place. the US will soon be out of the WHO so which nations are the US collaborating.? BTW some of you lab rats should read up on Leslie Grove, you might learn something
We "lab rats"?

"Leslie Grove" dermatology ... pharmacy? Not a lot of Leslie Grove entities out there, or people listed in a variety of searches.

Leslie Groves, General during WWII, though, was charged with running the Manhattan Project, Many have read quite extensively about that push. But then, there was literally carte blanche and a bottomless pit of cash tossed at that thing, with 90% of the world's top physicists roped into it. ($30B+, at the time, in today's funds.) Still, for the most part, that was just engineering. They knew it could work, they just didn't know how to engineer it into a practicable package.

The DNA/RNA/virology problem is awfully challenging, by comparison. Chemical engineering, mutations, communicability differences in all people, etc. A $billion or two is peanuts. Still, as with the Manhattan Project, the concept of "multiples" applies. Since one cyclotron could only put out X amount of product, then 1000x cyclotrons would yield faster output. Same with the multiple lab concept, given the widespread availability of genome eval and cracking tech.

All a guess, of course. But probably not far off.
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Old 07-27-20, 09:45 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by Clyde1820 View Post
We "lab rats"?

"Leslie Grove" dermatology ... pharmacy? Not a lot of Leslie Grove entities out there, or people listed in a variety of searches.

Leslie Groves, General during WWII, though, was charged with running the Manhattan Project, Many have read quite extensively about that push. But then, there was literally carte blanche and a bottomless pit of cash tossed at that thing, with 90% of the world's top physicists roped into it. ($30B+, at the time, in today's funds.) Still, for the most part, that was just engineering. They knew it could work, they just didn't know how to engineer it into a practicable package.

The DNA/RNA/virology problem is awfully challenging, by comparison. Chemical engineering, mutations, communicability differences in all people, etc. A $billion or two is peanuts. Still, as with the Manhattan Project, the concept of "multiples" applies. Since one cyclotron could only put out X amount of product, then 1000x cyclotrons would yield faster output. Same with the multiple lab concept, given the widespread availability of genome eval and cracking tech.

All a guess, of course. But probably not far off.
>>> a pretty good guess in an unselfish world BUT unfortunately altruistic scientists are not in charge of geopolitics. it is reasonably foreseeable that the "nation" that can develop & produce a vaccine for mass distribution will 1st allocate to its chosen "essentials" and next allocate in some prioritized formula to its populace. the conundrum occurs when the nation with the vaccine prioritizes which developed nations get the vaccine/formula. the OP shows that trump thinks he has paid billions for a 100+ million doses. even if "trump's" vaccine is perfect this would not be enough for US immunity much less sharing with other nations. Trump's "thinking" aside, nations routinely weaponize foodstuffs, natural resources, and cyberspace in order to create geopolitical leverage. one would think that a universal cure to a pandemic would not become a weapon but rising unrest and nationalist leaders in the PRC, ameriKa, russia & the EU should give one pause at the prospect of a weaponized vaccine policy occurring antecedent to any vaccine policy aimed at the general public's well being. in so far as the 3rd world is concerned, doubt that Nigeria, botswana et al will see mass vaccinations before the next pandemic. >>>>>>>>>>> i referenced leslie grove because he was the general that oversaw the collection of emigre physicists that developed the Abomb. Grove distrusted the lot of them and compartmentalized many aspects of Manhattan. Manhattan was a physics project, an engineering project, AND A SECURITY PROJECT. the latter predominated the thinking as to how the fruits of the scientists & engineers would be used. There is a COVID lesson in Manhattan.
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Old 07-27-20, 01:09 PM
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A possible bottleneck in the implemenmtation of vaccines, should one become available, is the production of glass vials.

Here’s a detail for you: how many vials will we need to put all those coronavirus vaccine doses in? What will they be made out of? Are there even that many vials of the right size in the world at the moment? The answer is, well, no there aren’t. Not yet. And the companies that manufacture them are getting orders that are beyond what they are currently able to produce. Here’s a good piece at Wired that goes into the details. In short, if someone waved a wand and made several huge vats of effective vaccine appear tomorrow, we wouldn’t have enough containers to get it rolled out to the general population.
In the Pipeline
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Old 07-27-20, 01:31 PM
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I think we have at least 2 dark years ahead of us
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Old 07-27-20, 01:36 PM
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Originally Posted by noisebeam View Post
I think we have at least 2 dark years ahead of us
I'm thinking it will be 18 month before things are as good as now.
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Old 09-07-20, 10:50 PM
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The Chinese claim to have an effective vaccine based on results of an emergency use scheme.

Hundreds of thousands of Chinese have been given two experimental Covid-19 vaccines
under an emergency scheme
without a single case of infection, a top official with a state-owned vaccine developer has said.Zhou Song, secretary for the commission for discipline inspection with China National Biotec Group, also said the company’s two candidate vaccines were likely to protect people for up to three years.

Zhou told China National Radio on Monday that the firm’s vaccines were the most widely used in the emergency scheme, adding: “Hundreds of thousands have taken the shot and no one has shown any obvious adverse events or got infected.”

CNBG’s two vaccines are still undergoing phase three trials for safety and efficacy in several countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Peru, Morocco, Argentina and Jordan.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...mpaign=3100570
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Old 09-07-20, 11:32 PM
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Originally Posted by skookum View Post
The Chinese claim to have an effective vaccine based on results of an emergency use scheme.



https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soci...mpaign=3100570
That article came from the South China Morning Post. I would take what they say with a grain of salt. If they have gave "hundreds of thousand" of shots, they would have more than enough data to determine efficacy and safety of the vaccines. I also doubt the vaccines are 100% effective as they claim "without a single case of infection" occurring.
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Old 09-08-20, 07:53 AM
  #46  
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post
That article came from the South China Morning Post. I would take what they say with a grain of salt. If they have gave "hundreds of thousand" of shots, they would have more than enough data to determine efficacy and safety of the vaccines. I also doubt the vaccines are 100% effective as they claim "without a single case of infection" occurring.
The SCMP is a fairly reliable source, certainly better than other outlets that are often quoted like the Daily Mail.

I do agree with your comments, it is basically a CEO hyping his company's product. I don 't know what data they have collected on this pseudo-trial, but the results read more like a marketing survey than a properly evaluated trial.

For a more scientific summary of various vaccine efforts, read this:
In the Pipeline
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Old 09-08-20, 08:01 AM
  #47  
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Let's see, where this steps takes us, to a positive side or a negative side. Future can only tell us this thing. Till them what we can do is stay at our places, and keep ourselves and our love ones safe from the virus. Stay Protected.
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Old 09-08-20, 04:31 PM
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From the daily Daily Mail:

BREAKING: Oxford and AstraZeneca's COVD-19 vaccine trials put on a hold after a UK participant had a 'serious' suspected reaction to the leading shot candidate

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...-reaction.html
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Old 09-10-20, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by CycleryNorth81 View Post
From the daily Daily Mail:

BREAKING: Oxford and AstraZeneca's COVD-19 vaccine trials put on a hold after a UK participant had a 'serious' suspected reaction to the leading shot candidate

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...-reaction.html
Some informed comment on the adverse event that halted the Astra Zeneca covid 19 vaccine trial.

Unfortunately, it might end up being very difficult to come to a conclusion, especially if this is a single case. (Edit: if this is a second case, though, that will be very bad news indeed) Welcome to vaccine safety trials and the difficulty of working with such data! As mentioned before, since vaccines are designed to be given exclusively to people who are not sick (a very unusual situation in drug development work!), the safety standards have to be very high. But the adverse events themselves (especially the serious ones) can be extremely rare, and the only way to get a statistical foothold on them is to have a very large controlled patient population under study. The Oxford/AstraZeneca trial is enrolling nearly 30,000 people, and the problem is that that may still not be enough for a definite answer on something like this. We’ll all await more information and I’ll revisit this as it becomes available.
In the Pipeline
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Old 09-10-20, 12:07 PM
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Coronavirus: Pharma firms unveil safety pledge over vaccine

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-54046157
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