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Death rate in the USA

Old 07-04-20, 02:50 PM
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Death rate in the USA

I am seeing that the death rate per million is about 340 which is odd since Costa Rica is 3.5, so roughly 100 times less.

Any ideas why? One thing that comes to mind is more thorough test, which dilutes the numbers.

One of thing that I appreciate here is with every death, they give the factors. Sex, age and contributing conditions.

I went cycling today, everyone has masks on when they go in stores, if you don't, the store can refuse you entrance.
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Old 07-04-20, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by crtreedude View Post
I am seeing that the death rate per million is about 340 which is odd since Costa Rica is 3.5, so roughly 100 times less.

Any ideas why? One thing that comes to mind is more thorough test, which dilutes the numbers.

One of thing that I appreciate here is with every death, they give the factors. Sex, age and contributing conditions.

I went cycling today, everyone has masks on when they go in stores, if you don't, the store can refuse you entrance.
Here in the US of A, store clerks have to fight with folks to get them to wear masks.

So, gee, wonder why the numbers are so different... Here, the virus is a political game... in some other parts of the world, they know it isn't.
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Old 07-04-20, 03:27 PM
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Originally Posted by crtreedude View Post
I am seeing that the death rate per million is about 340 which is odd since Costa Rica is 3.5, so roughly 100 times less.

Any ideas why? One thing that comes to mind is more thorough test, which dilutes the numbers.

One of thing that I appreciate here is with every death, they give the factors. Sex, age and contributing conditions.

I went cycling today, everyone has masks on when they go in stores, if you don't, the store can refuse you entrance.
The "Death Rate" you're discussing is a factor of the number of cases.

USA, population: 328,200,000
Total Infected (July 4): 2,830,856
Total Deaths (July 4): 129,641
Cases per million population: 8,625
Deaths per million population: 395
Case percent mortality rate: 4.58%

Costa Rica Population: 5 million
Total Infected (July 4): 4,621
Total Deaths: (July 4): 18
Cases per million population: 924
Deaths per million population: 3.6
Case percent mortality rate: 0.39%

So....

The USA has far more cases than Costa Rica per population. Thus, more deaths per million population.

The true case mortality rate for this disease is difficult to pin down. Like you said, it involves ages of the people. Nursing Homes? Health, etc. A good estimate seems to be around 1% of the cases are fatal.

So, if Costa Rica is around 0.39% mortality rate, that may well indicate that some deaths are not being reported, or perhaps reporting cases differently. So a person with Congestive Heart Failure & Coronavirus might get reported as dying of CHF and not Coronavirus.

Or, it could mean that Costa Rica is doing a very good job with contact tracing and they are catching almost all of the cases. Or, perhaps a bias to the population that is falling ill (young and healthy).

On the other hand, if the USA is reporting a little over a 4% case mortality rate, then we may well have missed a lot of cases (contributing to the spread of the disease). This has been especially problematic early with the disease spread. So an estimated actual number of cases is likely closer to 100x the deaths, and closer to 13 million infected, or close to 4% of the US population has become infected, which is HUGE.
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Old 07-04-20, 04:10 PM
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CR has done an excellent job on testing and containment. Until recently the disease had not got into the general population.

​​​​​​Good comments, I probably would just point it that per million is a ratio, so the size of the population isn't a factor, for example, China also has roughly the same mortality rate as the CR.

Regarding cause of death, all deaths in Costa Rica are tested for the virus , if it was present,bit is the cause of death.
​​​​​​
i know this is true because a a young woman died ( she was in poor health) but when they tested she had the virus.

My best guess is under reporting of cases, and a higher percentage of over weight victims. Costa Rica also gives steroids for EVERYTHING. Which has been shown to help by lowering the inflammation.
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Old 07-04-20, 04:14 PM
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Here in the US of A, store clerks have to fight with folks to get them to wear masks.

So, gee, wonder why the numbers are so different... Here, the virus is a political game... in some other parts of the world, they know it isn't.
It is interesting, here most of the bellyaching is from gringos. (I am a Gringo so I don't mean anything negative by using the word)

Ticos value community more than personal rights from my experience.
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Old 07-04-20, 04:32 PM
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I've heard the Costa Rica mostly closed their borders to US Citizens a couple of months ago. A very good thing.
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Old 07-04-20, 04:36 PM
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Originally Posted by CliffordK View Post
I've heard the Costa Rica mostly closed their borders to US Citizens a couple of months ago. A very good thing.
To everyone. Pretty soon, they are opening their borders to countries who have things under control, but that isn't the USA.
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Old 07-04-20, 04:46 PM
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I seem to recall that when the USA did general testing, they found about ten times more cases. In Costa Rica, that didn't happen, which would say the rate is more likely 34 per million. Still a magnitude different, but more likely.
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Old 07-05-20, 12:24 AM
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Originally Posted by crtreedude View Post
It is interesting, here most of the bellyaching is from gringos. (I am a Gringo so I don't mean anything negative by using the word)

Ticos value community more than personal rights from my experience.
Here is an example of a shopper refusing to wear a mask... "Costco Karen" demanding her "freedumbs" while attempting to enter a store. Bearig in mind of course that the store is a private enterprise... and in this case, a "members only" store.

https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/entert...203104196.html

I wonder why folks seem to have issue with the idea of a private business being able to limit entry, yet have no qualms about private "members only" country clubs?
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Old 07-05-20, 03:49 AM
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
I wonder why folks seem to have issue with the idea of a private business being able to limit entry, yet have no qualms about private "members only" country clubs?
Probably because they are first excluded because they don't have the fee to join. They are mistaken in listening to what stores say. Stores want everyone to come in, no matter who you are, private clubs are restrictive by nature. It hurts when a place that says it wants everyone doesn't want you. If the clerk / manager had explained that if they came in without a mask a lot of shoppers might leave, it wouldn't have been personal. Not sure what was done, just speculating
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Old 07-05-20, 05:01 AM
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Originally Posted by crtreedude View Post
Probably because they are first excluded because they don't have the fee to join. They are mistaken in listening to what stores say. Stores want everyone to come in, no matter who you are, private clubs are restrictive by nature. It hurts when a place that says it wants everyone doesn't want you. If the clerk / manager had explained that if they came in without a mask a lot of shoppers might leave, it wouldn't have been personal. Not sure what was done, just speculating
I see what you sre saying... that stores, by their general nature are open door. But they ARE still private enterprises... they are not "the goverment" "blocking your freedumbs."

In the case of Costco, someone does check your membership.

And in stores where I am, there are signs that state masks ARE required. And in this case in particular, this "Karen" had a mask, and chose to remove it, thus violating store and public policy.

This scene, where a mask is worn and then removed, has been repeated by others, who choose to ignore that there is a mask policy in place...

There are other situations where maskless people just try to barge into a store, again, in spite of policy, posted signs, and people asking that they do not enter without a mask.

People have been offered masks and refuse, and cite their "freedumbs," while obviously forgetting the rest of us have the freedom to remain healthy.

So getting back to the question you posed in the OP...
in the USA, COVID is not seen, by some, as a worldwide pandemic disease, but as something political. The reality is the disease doesn't care about your politics.

Last edited by genec; 07-05-20 at 05:08 AM.
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Old 07-05-20, 05:27 AM
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Overall, it's likely CR's death rate is understated. Note that CR averages approx. 200 flu deaths a year so only 18 COVID-19 deaths seems unlikely. I can understand why CR's cases could be low but see no reason their death rate would be lower than the flu death rate.
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Old 07-05-20, 06:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
Overall, it's likely CR's death rate is understated. Note that CR averages approx. 200 flu deaths a year so only 18 COVID-19 deaths seems unlikely. I can understand why CR's cases could be low but see no reason their death rate would be lower than the flu death rate.
No, not understated, like I said all deaths and I do mean all are checked for the virus. The reason deaths are so low is 4500 people is no where near the population. Flu tends to be the whole population, or at least 70 percent, which means if convid spreads similar, you would have 18,000 deaths.
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Old 07-05-20, 07:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Tony P. View Post
Overall, it's likely CR's death rate is understated. Note that CR averages approx. 200 flu deaths a year so only 18 COVID-19 deaths seems unlikely. I can understand why CR's cases could be low but see no reason their death rate would be lower than the flu death rate.
This sort of logic keeps rearing it's head everywhere when people attempt to state that one place or another "must" be posting bad data. Flu, has not often caused whole nations to go into full on mask wearing. Flu statistics are being quoted for a full year and presented in contrast to about 4 months of Covid-19 statistics.

Maybe it's just time to give it up and realize that many countries are doing a much better job that we are at holding their own against the disease.
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Old 07-05-20, 07:39 AM
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Are flu vaccinations common in Costa Rica? They may be especially helpful in the elderly and infirm, but also good for school kids, or even younger. And, if done society wide, they may help limit the spread of the disease in general.

Of course, it is pretty hit and miss in the USA.

0.39% for a case mortality rate is on the lower end, but perhaps not impossible with extensive testing.

The other thing that has been throwing around the case mortality data is rapid growth of cases.

So, two weeks ago, Costa Rica had:
June 20: 2127 cases.
July 4: 4621 cases

Or, more than doubling in the last two weeks. If one considers it to be about 2 weeks from diagnosis to death (as long as picked up early), then there would be an argument to use the case count from 2 weeks earlier.

So: 2127 cases, 19 deaths, and one gets a case mortality rate of 0.89% which is far more consistent with what would be expected.
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Old 07-06-20, 03:52 AM
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Yes, flu vaccines are very common, in fact, previous years the ministry of health showed up offering is one due to our age (60s) .

Yes, the lag time would affect he numbers but the USA is having an explosion of numbers as well, so since we are comparing USA to CR , it evens out. If the USA wasn't accelating in cases you would have a point.
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Old 07-06-20, 03:55 AM
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By the way, the mortality was higher earlier on, less knowledge on how to treat, etc. So there is no certainty that the percentage will go up significantly. Stats are fun this way.
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Old 07-06-20, 05:22 AM
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Originally Posted by crtreedude View Post
By the way, the mortality was higher earlier on, less knowledge on how to treat, etc. So there is no certainty that the percentage will go up significantly. Stats are fun this way.
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Old 07-06-20, 07:10 AM
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Deaths lag cases by about 2 weeks so expect to see some very bad numbers soon

And, related, Florida just hit 200K cases.

It took 114 days for Florida to reach it's first 100K cases

It took 13 days to reach it's next 100K cases

That is very bad
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Old 07-06-20, 07:16 AM
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Originally Posted by jet sanchEz View Post
Deaths lag cases by about 2 weeks so expect to see some very bad numbers soon

And, related, Florida just hit 200K cases.

It took 114 days for Florida to reach it's first 100K cases

It took 13 days to reach it's next 100K cases

That is very bad
In before anyone claims more testing causes more cases. Florida is actually testing less during this increase than they were a month ago.
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Old 07-06-20, 08:07 AM
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Originally Posted by jet sanchEz View Post
Deaths lag cases by about 2 weeks so expect to see some very bad numbers soon

And, related, Florida just hit 200K cases.

It took 114 days for Florida to reach it's first 100K cases

It took 13 days to reach it's next 100K cases

That is very bad
According to the CDC...

Mean number of days from symptom onset to hospitalization (standard deviation)Source: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC§

0-49 years: 6.9 (5.0) days

50-64 years: 7.2 (5.3) days

≥65 years: 6.2 (5.7) days


Mean number of days from symptom onset to death (standard deviation)Source: Preliminary COVID-19 estimates, CDC§

0-49 years: 14.9 (7.7) days

50-64 years: 15.3 (8.1) days

≥65 years: 12.9 (7.6) days
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...s.html#table-2

And bear in mind that the first 5 days or so may be asymptomatic... So from initial testing: 5 days asymptomatic + 5 days with onset + 15 days until death... could mean death shows up some 25 days after a positive test.

Opps... I mis read that... from symptom onset to death... forget the time in hospital. So it could be as little as 13 days... or much longer until death.

But time to death can be much longer....

Broadway Star Nick Cordero Dies at 41 After Over 90 Days in Hospital from Coronavirus Complications

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Old 07-06-20, 08:33 AM
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Just heard a good joke:

An epidemiologist, an ICU doctor and a scientist all walk into a bar. I’m just kidding, they know better.


Oh yeah, it goes without saying it that Florida is underreporting cases as well as deaths. I think that Florida is only putting deaths in hospitals towards their daily deaths.

Pretty sure most states are using similar tactics so as to paint a rosier picture.
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Old 07-06-20, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by jet sanchEz View Post
An epidemiologist, an ICU doctor and a scientist all walk into a bar. I’m just kidding, they know better.
I like that one!
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Old 07-06-20, 08:55 AM
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According to CR, no one has been hospitalized if they didn't have a pre-existing condition. Of course, they say 1/3 of the country has a pre-existing condition... It really just goes to show keeping fit is the best insurance. I have actually dropped 20 lbs during the lock down. I probably only have 5 lbs extra right now 10 if I really get skinny. (lots of mountains, so I want to be skinny for cycling)
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Old 07-06-20, 10:36 AM
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