CliffordK

I haven't cycled in London. I did get to see the London Tube

I did ride in Rome, as well as a number of other cities around the USA, and Italy. No bike paths in Italy at the time. And, a lot of road riding everywhere.

I wonder if "Too Scary" is all about definitions, and perhaps a change in our society. As far as I can tell, cycling has never been better. Bike lanes and bike paths were just being started a few decades ago, and now, there is quite a bit going everywhere... almost everywhere.

I'd been boating for many years before I had heard of "Extreme Sports".

Is cycling in traffic considered an "extreme sport"?



I've seen mountain TV shows depicting man against the wild.

I suppose there are some dangers, but less so for the well prepared. I have to wonder if the thoughts that cycling is dangerous is more due to a change in perceptions of society.

Heck, I was bike commuting up to 8 miles each way, no bike paths or lanes, to school in Jr. High. Not every day, but regularly.

Are we now in a society where it is too dangerous for kids to hop on a bike and ride to school? Too dangerous to walk to school? They must be chauffeured by their parents?

I'm still in my 50's, but I have this belief that the more I ride, the healthier I will be as I get into my second half of life. Heck, I can already tell that my knees are thanking me for all that riding, and all that mashing. They are better than they were at least a decade ago.

I have to think that my High School classmates are dropping like flies, and not the avid cyclists.

How can we convince the youngsters that what they do today will impact the rest of their lives?

radroad

Extrapolating out to 2019, the US has lost HALF of it's bike shops in just two decades. Not looking good.

Direct to consumer bike sales, online sales for parts, mobile van service for emergencies and lazy people, youtube for people who want to do their own repairs.

Sy Reene

So what happened in 2001-2002? Isn't this about when CF started becoming pushed by the bike manufacturers? OCLV rings a bell as getting lots of play around then.

Seattle Forrest

​​​​​​I bought a very expensive bike thing from the shop in Winthrop WA. I knew at the time that it would be at a discount, but not how much. They let me take possession before we settled up. At that point, they had got a number from the supplier, but they felt it was too much and went to bat for me, so it was a few more days before I knew the price. But it was worth the wait. I bring them a bottle or two of Community Red regularly.

I bought my skis from a different shop in the same town. That place sent me out with two pairs of different skis, told me to have fun with them on the trail for a few days and then come back and pay for the ones I liked most. I won't buy any skis they sell anywhere else.

There are still great shops out there.

beermode

I love my LBS. I guess I'm lucky to have a good one near me. I do live in a climate where you can ride all year, and areas with more disposable income that is not prejudiced against certain generations.
I got talked out of buying a mid tier mountain bike and got one that was near entry level. I've been to places where they would barely give you the time of day unless you were eyeing a flagship. We discussed the trails I would ride, the type of riding I wanted to do and told them I was researching a particular model. That's when they talked me into getting the model below to save some money. They seem to be doing well. Every time I walk in, it seems like they are closing out some sale and the mechanics seem really busy with repairs, upgrades and new bike builds.
However, before I moved to the neighborhood where I am at now, there was always a bike shop with rave reviews. My previous place was right next to one that couldn't get a bad review or word of mouth if they tried. Non-bike enthusiasts still knew that was the go to place. And I'm sure it wasn't easy to maintain that. I considered that area to be non bike friendly and always wondered where these club riders came from. Little did I know.
The area I will possibly move to in the not to distant future also has a great one.
My guess is, there might be a ton of bike shops that are closing because sometimes it can get saturated. The industry does change, just like most other industries, and some can't keep up.

PepeM

Always wise to start your graph right at a peak to make the point you're trying to make.

Steamer

And adjust the starting point of the Y axis to not be zero. Makes changes look more dramatic that way.

bluehills3149

I'll throw some more potential reasons.
1. Bike share systems. In New York the Citibike network has 12,000 bikes and gets about 40,000 (!!) rides every day. That's got to have taken a huge chunk of owned bikes off the road.
2. In New York I've noticed most new bikes are cheap single speed bikes - often priced about $200-300. These bikes are simple and pretty reliable and work well for 3-5 years at which time they are tossed when the first major repair is due. Many other consumer items now follow this model - think TV's, stereos, car engines etc.
This same process killed Radio Shack and Circuit city. Just as Radio Shack could not survive just selling odd light bulbs and printer cables, a bike store can't survive selling brake pads and flat tire fixes.

Having said that, in Brooklyn there are more bike stores than ever - mostly selling those single speed bikes. And the number of bikes on the road (commuting) seems higher than ever.

Sy Reene

There is that.. but that one year saw about a 12% drop in a single year... since then it appears a lot of typically 2-4% drops. Just an oddball observation.

radroad

More shops still closing from 2015 to 2016:

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/stud...s#.XEkQWC2ZMy4

Double digit decline in road bike sales, small bump in MTB sales, huge growth in ebike market:

https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/u...ding-the-pack/

Leinster

radroad

Where's the mystery? Cars and trucks are far more convenient. Seating for two minimum, up to 8 or 9 in some cases. The ability to haul hundreds of pounds of cargo effortlessly, top speed of 155 mph, unlimited range. People don't want even want to exercise outdoors, most people want climate controlled gyms with tv's and snack bars. Tech moves in the direction of greater convenience and comfort. Dangerous traffic, cratered out roads, and coping with a sweat bath after a commute to work or school don't fit these criteria.

People will always choose motorized equipment when they have the choice. People will always choose convenience and comfort. Bicycle commuters are barely double digits even in the most bike-centric cities in the US.

Zaskar

Worth restating: It starts with kids. They don't ride bikes. They play video games. Here, I'll draw the graph that illustrates the decline of kids riding bikes and the increase of them playing video games - X

Most depressing line in this thread: "Double digit decline in road bike sales, small bump in MTB sales, huge growth in ebike market"

Leinster

Zaskar

Didn't blame anyone - stated that kids don't ride bikes and do play video games. Of course it starts with the parents.

mrv 

it's always been the parent's fault..... right back to Adam.

- unless my kids turn out great, of course. they did that all on their own.

Erzulis Boat 

We do a lot of very early morning spearfishing in Santa Barbara, and will have breakfast post dive on the beach as the sun is just starting to warm the air. We may encounter 1 or 2 people walking/jogging, but basically have the surrounding coastline to ourselves.

On my way home, I drive past a large gym. There are at least 50-100 people on treadmills and exercise bikes that can be seen through the giant glass windows.

We count our blessings. I hope they stay in that gym, we have the sea to ourselves!

GrizzlyPeaks

radroad

@Zaskar that was certainly not my intention.

I fell in love with cycling in college when I bought a super crappy ten speed with friction stem shifters and steel rims. As low of a quality as that bike was, I felt like I was flying when riding it! It took me a couple more tries to find a really high quality bike but I was hooked.

What do you think it will take to get younger and even middle aged adults involved in road cycling? I'd say about 4 times out of 5 when passing a road cyclist (in either direction), they are in their retirement years. The appeal for me of road bikes for me is that it's much easier to cover a lot of miles on a road bike than on any other type of bike, at noticeably higher speeds as well. I even enjoy getting kitted up, or at least I used to when I was 15 -20 lbs lighter lol

Paul Barnard

I post this reluctantly, because I know how polarizing a figure he is, but the Lance effect peaked? Here in the states he put tremendous focus on road riding, and I feel confident that he impacted sales in a significant way. When he won his first TDF, did a lot of folks rush out and buy bikes then the market cooled? Prior to that, the mountain bike revolution launched, then that was closely followed by the road bike revolution. Obviously if that explains some of what we are seeing, it doesn't explain all of it. I would think online businesses really ramped up good and became an accepted way for people to buy bikes and parts about that time. Tools for the home mechanic became readily available. More recently, you tube videos have made it possible for just about anyone to make home repairs. It's also important to note that when bicycling really started gaining traction as an American pass time, the average bike the average rider bought could last them a lifetime. My guess it that it was a combination of those factors.

eja_ bottecchia

u235

Wow, some interesting theories here about the connection of government, society, and if organic food is related to a the decline of bike stores.. A lot of people are acting as if they are not a part of the same society and only looking in and observing passively from a distance.

GreenAnvil

rousseau

What I find daunting about this is the effect it will have on so many guys that started up small boutique shops specializing in frame building and the like back in the 2000s. Here were these bike enthusiasts pursuing a dream and feeling vindicated about the rising popularity of cycling (it's good for you, it cuts down on pollution, it's a beautiful sport etc.), but the softening of demand might lay them to waste.