Depressed prices for vintage cycles and parts
10-06-18, 08:53 PM
#51
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So there are several trends going on here:
Most of the vintage bike collectors are older. Many (most?) of us have long since filled out our collections and are not buying much these days. I haven't bought a bike or frame in 2 years, still working through my stash of stored parts and frames. A lot of people are downsizing rather than expanding.
The younger generations are not as interested in bikes from the 60's-80's they had no relationship with when they were young. Kind of the way I was/am totally uninterested in the balloon-tired single-speeds my dad used to ride when he was a kid.
Instead of converting vintage bikes for urban use, people can just buy one of the new retro-style bikes.
This would seem to indicate that the vintage market will continue to be flat in general, especially for the mid-range equipment: the hard-core aficionados want the nicer stuff, and the dabblers are getting new bikes.
The best stuff in any market tends to hold its value. When I look at prices for high-end bikes and parts they seem about the same as 10 years a go, although that is actually a devaluation if you factor in inflation.
Most of the vintage bike collectors are older. Many (most?) of us have long since filled out our collections and are not buying much these days. I haven't bought a bike or frame in 2 years, still working through my stash of stored parts and frames. A lot of people are downsizing rather than expanding.
The younger generations are not as interested in bikes from the 60's-80's they had no relationship with when they were young. Kind of the way I was/am totally uninterested in the balloon-tired single-speeds my dad used to ride when he was a kid.
Instead of converting vintage bikes for urban use, people can just buy one of the new retro-style bikes.
This would seem to indicate that the vintage market will continue to be flat in general, especially for the mid-range equipment: the hard-core aficionados want the nicer stuff, and the dabblers are getting new bikes.
The best stuff in any market tends to hold its value. When I look at prices for high-end bikes and parts they seem about the same as 10 years a go, although that is actually a devaluation if you factor in inflation.
10-06-18, 09:35 PM
#52
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For what I search, ebay prices certainly arent lower than a few years ago. Maybe they are a lot lower than 10 years ago, but thatd be surprising.
eBay prices are pretty high and the selection is limited.
that's what I've noticed over the last yesr- how limited the selection is of what i happen to be searching for at any given time.
eBay prices are pretty high and the selection is limited.
that's what I've noticed over the last yesr- how limited the selection is of what i happen to be searching for at any given time.
10-06-18, 10:39 PM
#53
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Take a look in your Facebook Marketplace ads....ebay stuff is way high still
10-06-18, 11:39 PM
#54
Junior Member
Ignore nostalgia for the moment. Consider that a bicycle is fundamentally a transportation device, like a car. A 1956 Porsche Speedster was at one time a state of the art car, but modern cars will significantly outperform it. The modern car will has better acceleration, better braking and better crash resistance. And the modern car is physically easier to drive. Also, 75% of people in the USA live in cities, with dense traffic and split-second driving conditions. What was once state of the art technology is now a commonplace necessity.
Bicycles are also affected by the same changes in performance requirements: On a modern bike, the snap in pedals let you start up more quickly and conveniently at every intersection; this helps you get out of the way of cars trying to turn across your path. Lighter weight improves acceleration. Better brakes help you stop more quickly. The lighter braking force (lighter touch) of modern brakes reduces physical stress, which helps you maintain intellectual clarity when reacting in an emergency situation. Ergo/STI shifting lets you change gears more quickly and safely, since you don't have to remove your hand from the handlebars - this can be critical when dealing with dense traffic or changing conditions. And the additional gears of modern bikes helps optimize your horsepower over a greater range of conditions, giving you a faster ride.
Certainly, old bikes have their charm as art or nostalgia. But many people just want something that works conveniently and safely. Consequently the technological shortcomings of vintage bicycles makes them less safe in modern riding conditions. (Notably in cities, where 75% of the people in the USA live.)
Price depression is a consequence of technical obsolescence, until the nostalgia cycle hits (if at all). Consider: How many people want to regularly ride a penny-farthing bike today?
Bicycles are also affected by the same changes in performance requirements: On a modern bike, the snap in pedals let you start up more quickly and conveniently at every intersection; this helps you get out of the way of cars trying to turn across your path. Lighter weight improves acceleration. Better brakes help you stop more quickly. The lighter braking force (lighter touch) of modern brakes reduces physical stress, which helps you maintain intellectual clarity when reacting in an emergency situation. Ergo/STI shifting lets you change gears more quickly and safely, since you don't have to remove your hand from the handlebars - this can be critical when dealing with dense traffic or changing conditions. And the additional gears of modern bikes helps optimize your horsepower over a greater range of conditions, giving you a faster ride.
Certainly, old bikes have their charm as art or nostalgia. But many people just want something that works conveniently and safely. Consequently the technological shortcomings of vintage bicycles makes them less safe in modern riding conditions. (Notably in cities, where 75% of the people in the USA live.)
Price depression is a consequence of technical obsolescence, until the nostalgia cycle hits (if at all). Consider: How many people want to regularly ride a penny-farthing bike today?
10-07-18, 02:35 AM
#55
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Ignore nostalgia for the moment. Consider that a bicycle is fundamentally a transportation device, like a car. A 1956 Porsche Speedster was at one time a state of the art car, but modern cars will significantly outperform it. The modern car will has better acceleration, better braking and better crash resistance. And the modern car is physically easier to drive. Also, 75% of people in the USA live in cities, with dense traffic and split-second driving conditions. What was once state of the art technology is now a commonplace necessity.
Bicycles are also affected by the same changes in performance requirements: On a modern bike, the snap in pedals let you start up more quickly and conveniently at every intersection; this helps you get out of the way of cars trying to turn across your path. Lighter weight improves acceleration. Better brakes help you stop more quickly. The lighter braking force (lighter touch) of modern brakes reduces physical stress, which helps you maintain intellectual clarity when reacting in an emergency situation. Ergo/STI shifting lets you change gears more quickly and safely, since you don't have to remove your hand from the handlebars - this can be critical when dealing with dense traffic or changing conditions. And the additional gears of modern bikes helps optimize your horsepower over a greater range of conditions, giving you a faster ride.
Certainly, old bikes have their charm as art or nostalgia. But many people just want something that works conveniently and safely. Consequently the technological shortcomings of vintage bicycles makes them less safe in modern riding conditions. (Notably in cities, where 75% of the people in the USA live.)
Price depression is a consequence of technical obsolescence, until the nostalgia cycle hits (if at all). Consider: How many people want to regularly ride a penny-farthing bike today?
Bicycles are also affected by the same changes in performance requirements: On a modern bike, the snap in pedals let you start up more quickly and conveniently at every intersection; this helps you get out of the way of cars trying to turn across your path. Lighter weight improves acceleration. Better brakes help you stop more quickly. The lighter braking force (lighter touch) of modern brakes reduces physical stress, which helps you maintain intellectual clarity when reacting in an emergency situation. Ergo/STI shifting lets you change gears more quickly and safely, since you don't have to remove your hand from the handlebars - this can be critical when dealing with dense traffic or changing conditions. And the additional gears of modern bikes helps optimize your horsepower over a greater range of conditions, giving you a faster ride.
Certainly, old bikes have their charm as art or nostalgia. But many people just want something that works conveniently and safely. Consequently the technological shortcomings of vintage bicycles makes them less safe in modern riding conditions. (Notably in cities, where 75% of the people in the USA live.)
Price depression is a consequence of technical obsolescence, until the nostalgia cycle hits (if at all). Consider: How many people want to regularly ride a penny-farthing bike today?
10-07-18, 04:55 AM
#56
Senior Member
@Tamiya
Yes, I have the L-shaped lever. It's basically a wingnut. The factory part that simply did not work was the bolt that threads into that wingnut. And no, when I have a 100% original Twenty with 100% of its original chrome and paint and it is all showroom fresh I am not going to mickey mouse a QR seatpost. We saved the bolt head and the square shoulder and brazed in new threaded rod.
As for remarks above about new bikes being safer and easier and more user friendly. That is all rubbish. And it repeated here in the sanctum every day. Keep repeating that STI is better (and electric shifting is better still!!!!) and clipless is better and rim brakes will not stop a bike, just keep repeating it and then be surprised when prices of good old bikes go down.
Yes, I have the L-shaped lever. It's basically a wingnut. The factory part that simply did not work was the bolt that threads into that wingnut. And no, when I have a 100% original Twenty with 100% of its original chrome and paint and it is all showroom fresh I am not going to mickey mouse a QR seatpost. We saved the bolt head and the square shoulder and brazed in new threaded rod.
As for remarks above about new bikes being safer and easier and more user friendly. That is all rubbish. And it repeated here in the sanctum every day. Keep repeating that STI is better (and electric shifting is better still!!!!) and clipless is better and rim brakes will not stop a bike, just keep repeating it and then be surprised when prices of good old bikes go down.
10-07-18, 07:35 AM
#57
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I don't think comparison to cars is valid. The advantages of complex systems in cars is substantial where the advantage to electrical and hydraulic systems and CF frames to a bicycle is minimal outside of racing. I might not be able to repair my car in the backyard anymore, but I'm not giving up the simplicity of my bicycle unless it can also do my laundry. And...make lunch.
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10-07-18, 09:26 AM
#58
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Were this true, everyone here would be riding around on Raleigh 3-speeds and discussing the exciting crank upgrade they just did on their Schwinn Super Sport.
And all those chromovelato Italian bikes would never have been born.
The bike as transportation people are a different demographic, sir.
10-07-18, 09:29 AM
#59
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...when you base your entire argument on an assumption as fallacious as this, don't be surprised if people dismantle it for you.
Were this true, everyone here would be riding around on Raleigh 3-speeds and discussing the exciting crank upgrade they just did on their Schwinn Super Sport.
And all those chromovelato Italian bikes would never have been born.
The bike as transportation people are a different demographic, sir.
Were this true, everyone here would be riding around on Raleigh 3-speeds and discussing the exciting crank upgrade they just did on their Schwinn Super Sport.
And all those chromovelato Italian bikes would never have been born.
The bike as transportation people are a different demographic, sir.
Personally, I think it all comes down to disposable income. When it declines and the economic outlook is cloudy, prices drop or stagnate at best.
10-07-18, 09:33 AM
#60
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Ignore nostalgia for the moment. Consider that a bicycle is fundamentally a transportation device, like a car. A 1956 Porsche Speedster was at one time a state of the art car, but modern cars will significantly outperform it. The modern car will has better acceleration, better braking and better crash resistance. And the modern car is physically easier to drive. Also, 75% of people in the USA live in cities, with dense traffic and split-second driving conditions. What was once state of the art technology is now a commonplace necessity.
Bicycles are also affected by the same changes in performance requirements: On a modern bike, the snap in pedals let you start up more quickly and conveniently at every intersection; this helps you get out of the way of cars trying to turn across your path. Lighter weight improves acceleration. Better brakes help you stop more quickly. The lighter braking force (lighter touch) of modern brakes reduces physical stress, which helps you maintain intellectual clarity when reacting in an emergency situation. Ergo/STI shifting lets you change gears more quickly and safely, since you don't have to remove your hand from the handlebars - this can be critical when dealing with dense traffic or changing conditions. And the additional gears of modern bikes helps optimize your horsepower over a greater range of conditions, giving you a faster ride.
Certainly, old bikes have their charm as art or nostalgia. But many people just want something that works conveniently and safely. Consequently the technological shortcomings of vintage bicycles makes them less safe in modern riding conditions. (Notably in cities, where 75% of the people in the USA live.)
Price depression is a consequence of technical obsolescence, until the nostalgia cycle hits (if at all). Consider: How many people want to regularly ride a penny-farthing bike today?
Bicycles are also affected by the same changes in performance requirements: On a modern bike, the snap in pedals let you start up more quickly and conveniently at every intersection; this helps you get out of the way of cars trying to turn across your path. Lighter weight improves acceleration. Better brakes help you stop more quickly. The lighter braking force (lighter touch) of modern brakes reduces physical stress, which helps you maintain intellectual clarity when reacting in an emergency situation. Ergo/STI shifting lets you change gears more quickly and safely, since you don't have to remove your hand from the handlebars - this can be critical when dealing with dense traffic or changing conditions. And the additional gears of modern bikes helps optimize your horsepower over a greater range of conditions, giving you a faster ride.
Certainly, old bikes have their charm as art or nostalgia. But many people just want something that works conveniently and safely. Consequently the technological shortcomings of vintage bicycles makes them less safe in modern riding conditions. (Notably in cities, where 75% of the people in the USA live.)
Price depression is a consequence of technical obsolescence, until the nostalgia cycle hits (if at all). Consider: How many people want to regularly ride a penny-farthing bike today?
Weird post. This is one of the very few trolling posts I've seen on C&V.
10-07-18, 10:08 AM
#62
Sunshine
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I'll just focus on this comment.
a platform pedal is just as fast to get started from a stop. You literally just push your foot down. There isn't anything faster than that.
Also, I use 'snap in pedals'(I use SPD) so its not like I am biased against them.
10-07-18, 10:50 AM
#63
Still learning
- Wages are up and unemployment is only 3.7%, so economic conditions are not IMHO a factor for the last 2 years.
- In large cities, bike sharing, ride sharing, scooters, and safety issues of mixing with dense vehicle traffic are detrimental to bike commuting, even with an increase in bike lanes.
- Storage is an issue in rental residences and at urban office buildings. In NYC at Columbus Circle, rent is $175 per month for a bike.
- In suburban areas, dense traffic, a plethora of SUVs/pickups/delivery vehicles, distracted drivers, and sprawl are detrimental as well.
- There is a shortage of LBS locations and trained bike mechanics willing to service C&V cycles at an affordable cost, if at all.
- Technology such as disc brakes, IGH hubs, carbon fiber, ergonomic design (Electra), are becoming more prevalent and affordable.
- Thanks to the strong US dollar, $500 buys a shiny new entry level bike that appears to be a decent value to the average consumer.
- There is a whole young generation that would rather play video games or social media than get out and get exercise/fresh air. The majority lack mechanical skills and have been brought up in a throw away economy.
10-07-18, 12:00 PM
#64
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10-07-18, 12:25 PM
#66
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There are multiple factors:
- Wages are up and unemployment is only 3.7%, so economic conditions are not IMHO a factor for the last 2 years.
- In large cities, bike sharing, ride sharing, scooters, and safety issues of mixing with dense vehicle traffic are detrimental to bike commuting, even with an increase in bike lanes.
- Storage is an issue in rental residences and at urban office buildings. In NYC at Columbus Circle, rent is $175 per month for a bike.
- In suburban areas, dense traffic, a plethora of SUVs/pickups/delivery vehicles, distracted drivers, and sprawl are detrimental as well.
- There is a shortage of LBS locations and trained bike mechanics willing to service C&V cycles at an affordable cost, if at all.
- Technology such as disc brakes, IGH hubs, carbon fiber, ergonomic design (Electra), are becoming more prevalent and affordable.
- Thanks to the strong US dollar, $500 buys a shiny new entry level bike that appears to be a decent value to the average consumer.
- There is a whole young generation that would rather play video games or social media than get out and get exercise/fresh air. The majority lack mechanical skills and have been brought up in a throw away economy.
If one was fortunate to regain employment in the last year or two, I think the most important expenditures would be paying down debt from the period of unemployment, and buying deferred expenditures, say dental care as an example.
It will take a while for those who have just regained employment to feel as they have disposable income.
New bike sales are not terrific now, and have not been so for a while. I go into a local bike shop and see plenty of 2016, 2017 model year bikes on offer.
I have not married prices of vintage and new together, but it does make for an interesting comparison.
(minor aside, another two local bike shops went under this year near me, one was a Trek oriented shop, the other BMX.)
Will things change? I think they will shift. Index shift that is, folk for whom that was included as a feature when they were young, will be willing / wanting that.
The increasing tech of mod stuff, hydraulic brakes, electric shift, etc, will continue, fair enough, but I do see a reaction to wanting a simple, understandable bike, one that one can hope to master the maintenance and mechanics of.
10-07-18, 12:37 PM
#67
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Dunno, but I recently picked up a 2000 Cannondale Silk Path 700, in Atlantic Blue (looks aquamarine to me, lol). It was almost $1200 before tax new, and mine was $150. 😋
But it was ridden hard & put away wet a few times, I replaced the brakes already, and doing most of the drivetrain. The paint's pretty rough, but looks great from a few feet away. 😁😉
But it was ridden hard & put away wet a few times, I replaced the brakes already, and doing most of the drivetrain. The paint's pretty rough, but looks great from a few feet away. 😁😉
10-07-18, 07:26 PM
#70
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I've seen other collectables rise and fall in price. Some never recover in price... others increase more-so. In 1976... the bicentennial was very, very, good for antiques. Following that price increase event... others willingly "invested" in other collectables.... expecting quick price increases. It was reminiscence of the Tulip Bubble
I think as cycling popularity peaked a few years ago..... so did interest in the bikes of a by gone era. Even Penny Farthings saw an increase in interest. As cycling interest fell so did everything else cycling related. Unfortunately.... I believe road/racing cycling popularity was hatched on the celebrated success of that Arm-something guy. And the newer more recent sport of mountain cycling was promoted by a successful and popular President of the United States.
However.... neither are any longer celebrated, or popular. Fickle heroism brought about a popularity.... that just didn't last. I believe cycling will be around for centuries. Sometime popular... and sometime less than popular.
I think as cycling popularity peaked a few years ago..... so did interest in the bikes of a by gone era. Even Penny Farthings saw an increase in interest. As cycling interest fell so did everything else cycling related. Unfortunately.... I believe road/racing cycling popularity was hatched on the celebrated success of that Arm-something guy. And the newer more recent sport of mountain cycling was promoted by a successful and popular President of the United States.
However.... neither are any longer celebrated, or popular. Fickle heroism brought about a popularity.... that just didn't last. I believe cycling will be around for centuries. Sometime popular... and sometime less than popular.
Last edited by Dave Cutter; 10-07-18 at 07:31 PM.
10-08-18, 08:43 AM
#71
Senior Member
There is another issue that I didn't see discussed in this thread. Technology, in the form of a universal Internet and automated marketplaces, created an essentially new market starting in the mid 90s. That was a really good time to be a buyer or seller. Sellers found out they could liquidate unused stuff much easier and buyers found items they were never going to find in the local shopper or radio tradio shows. I never would have found a complete and pristine Super Record gruppo in my local market without a lot more work than it took by simply posting my desire on a national newsgroup in the early 90s. And people paid more than they needed to for items they had not seen available in a long time. I know, because I sold some of those items. Now, that market mechanism has matured, and prices have likely adjusted due to a more efficient market.
10-08-18, 08:54 AM
#72
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I've seen other collectables rise and fall in price. Some never recover in price... others increase more-so. In 1976... the bicentennial was very, very, good for antiques. Following that price increase event... others willingly "invested" in other collectables.... expecting quick price increases. It was reminiscence of the Tulip Bubble
I think as cycling popularity peaked a few years ago..... so did interest in the bikes of a by gone era. Even Penny Farthings saw an increase in interest. As cycling interest fell so did everything else cycling related. Unfortunately.... I believe road/racing cycling popularity was hatched on the celebrated success of that Arm-something guy. And the newer more recent sport of mountain cycling was promoted by a successful and popular President of the United States.
However.... neither are any longer celebrated, or popular. Fickle heroism brought about a popularity.... that just didn't last. I believe cycling will be around for centuries. Sometime popular... and sometime less than popular.
I think as cycling popularity peaked a few years ago..... so did interest in the bikes of a by gone era. Even Penny Farthings saw an increase in interest. As cycling interest fell so did everything else cycling related. Unfortunately.... I believe road/racing cycling popularity was hatched on the celebrated success of that Arm-something guy. And the newer more recent sport of mountain cycling was promoted by a successful and popular President of the United States.
However.... neither are any longer celebrated, or popular. Fickle heroism brought about a popularity.... that just didn't last. I believe cycling will be around for centuries. Sometime popular... and sometime less than popular.
10-08-18, 09:10 AM
#73
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It's the decades longs stain of drugs related to pro cycling that keeps interest down. Of all the young people I know, none are interested in road cycling TV. Then there is the lack of constant excitement coupled with team and riders you pretty much expect to win. In cycling MTB and BMX draw younger crowds.
The highly collectible stuff will win out. Ride quality etc or the fact it is ridden regularly plays little part.
The highly collectible stuff will win out. Ride quality etc or the fact it is ridden regularly plays little part.
10-08-18, 10:06 AM
#74
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Does not help the US market too that there has not been any new cycling superstar to come from the country since Lance Armstrong, and his fall from glory was a giant damper on the sport here for both young and older cyclists.....
10-08-18, 10:08 AM
#75
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Ignore nostalgia for the moment. Consider that a bicycle is fundamentally a transportation device, like a car. A 1956 Porsche Speedster was at one time a state of the art car, but modern cars will significantly outperform it. The modern car will has better acceleration, better braking and better crash resistance. And the modern car is physically easier to drive. Also, 75% of people in the USA live in cities, with dense traffic and split-second driving conditions. What was once state of the art technology is now a commonplace necessity.
Bicycles are also affected by the same changes in performance requirements: On a modern bike, the snap in pedals let you start up more quickly and conveniently at every intersection; this helps you get out of the way of cars trying to turn across your path. Lighter weight improves acceleration. Better brakes help you stop more quickly. The lighter braking force (lighter touch) of modern brakes reduces physical stress, which helps you maintain intellectual clarity when reacting in an emergency situation. Ergo/STI shifting lets you change gears more quickly and safely, since you don't have to remove your hand from the handlebars - this can be critical when dealing with dense traffic or changing conditions. And the additional gears of modern bikes helps optimize your horsepower over a greater range of conditions, giving you a faster ride.
Certainly, old bikes have their charm as art or nostalgia. But many people just want something that works conveniently and safely. Consequently the technological shortcomings of vintage bicycles makes them less safe in modern riding conditions. (Notably in cities, where 75% of the people in the USA live.)
Price depression is a consequence of technical obsolescence, until the nostalgia cycle hits (if at all). Consider: How many people want to regularly ride a penny-farthing bike today?
Bicycles are also affected by the same changes in performance requirements: On a modern bike, the snap in pedals let you start up more quickly and conveniently at every intersection; this helps you get out of the way of cars trying to turn across your path. Lighter weight improves acceleration. Better brakes help you stop more quickly. The lighter braking force (lighter touch) of modern brakes reduces physical stress, which helps you maintain intellectual clarity when reacting in an emergency situation. Ergo/STI shifting lets you change gears more quickly and safely, since you don't have to remove your hand from the handlebars - this can be critical when dealing with dense traffic or changing conditions. And the additional gears of modern bikes helps optimize your horsepower over a greater range of conditions, giving you a faster ride.
Certainly, old bikes have their charm as art or nostalgia. But many people just want something that works conveniently and safely. Consequently the technological shortcomings of vintage bicycles makes them less safe in modern riding conditions. (Notably in cities, where 75% of the people in the USA live.)
Price depression is a consequence of technical obsolescence, until the nostalgia cycle hits (if at all). Consider: How many people want to regularly ride a penny-farthing bike today?
I have a good friend who competes in triathlons and he wouldn't be caught dead on any of my bikes, including my Campy Record equipped Holdsworth. He would agree entirely with the above post. For him, his bikes are tools, he has no sentimental attachment to any of them. He maintains them and upgrades if he thinks it will make him ride more competitively. He also uses his bikes for transportation, they look like hell but that doesn't matter to him.
Although the above quoted post doesn't resonate with most of us here in CV, I don't think he is off the mark.