What's next? After gravel, what's the NEXT BIG THING?
08-02-19, 03:11 PM
#51
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2018 bike sales in Germany . . . 23.5% of all bike sales were e-bikes. 980,000 e-bikes sold in 2018 in Germany alone.
https://www.bike-eu.com/sales-trends...833.1564779717
https://www.bike-eu.com/sales-trends...833.1564779717
08-02-19, 03:16 PM
#52
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Interesting article about track training on a grass "velodrome" in Kansas.
https://www.velonews.com/2019/07/new...lodrome_497324
Goes back to an interesting quote:
"On the national level, USA Cycling is looking to expand access. “We have 330 million people and we have a hard time finding 20 exceptional riders to come and race on track,” Jeff Pierce, Director of Elite Athletics, Road and Track at USA Cycling, says. “They’re out there for sure. One of our issues is our lack of tracks.”
This is one way to discover new talent...
08-02-19, 03:18 PM
#53
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The Guardian is reporting that e-bikes are now out-selling regular bikes in the Netherlands.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...es-netherlands
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...es-netherlands
08-02-19, 03:38 PM
#54
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But e-bikes are cheaper than cars. Those that can transition from cars to e-bikes will save a lot of money. Those that can't afford a car might be able to afford an e-bike.
08-02-19, 03:50 PM
#55
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Yet, I havent seen any mass exodus from the ranks of vehicle drivers towards cycling (or skateboarding, or walking...).
The deck is stacked against cycling as a form of transportation in the US in a lot of ways. City design (huge areas of suburbs, with large distances to travel). Lack of cycling infrastructure. Poor weather across much of the country. This is without getting into the cultural and political impediments to cycling gaining traction here, that don't exist to the same extent in many areas overseas.
I think the next 'thing' will be another niche category of enthusiast cycling. Maybe the next big thing will be 'Mulch.' Or Pea Gravel.
08-02-19, 04:27 PM
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No one is making a claim of mass exodus. But e-bikes fill a niche (cheaper than cars, greater range than walking, less physically demanding than regular bikes).
08-02-19, 04:50 PM
#57
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People who think even $500 is simply too much for a "pedal bike" don't even blink at $1,000 for a bike with an electric motor on it. Like it or not, e-Bikes are absolutely here to stay.
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08-02-19, 05:15 PM
#58
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Loads of e-Bikes under $1,000. The bulk of the market falls into a segment from $1,500 to $2,000. Sure, if you're only looking at Specialized, e-Bikes are expensive.
People who think even $500 is simply too much for a "pedal bike" don't even blink at $1,000 for a bike with an electric motor on it. Like it or not, e-Bikes are absolutely here to stay.
People who think even $500 is simply too much for a "pedal bike" don't even blink at $1,000 for a bike with an electric motor on it. Like it or not, e-Bikes are absolutely here to stay.
I just the market for then is going to have a fairly low ceiling.
I think the bulk of customers for ebikes will be taken from moped sales. And even then it will be narrowed down further to people who have/had mopeds, AND have a concern about the environment.
I see an enormous amount of overlap between mopeds and ebikes in terms of use, convenience, cost, utility. Except in most cases...a moped will be better at those things.
Last edited by Abe_Froman; 08-02-19 at 05:20 PM.
08-02-19, 05:22 PM
#59
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08-03-19, 01:04 AM
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too me a scooter makes way more sens than an E-bike, outside of being able to park it on a side walk, not needing insurance, motorcycle endorsement/driver license
08-03-19, 01:16 AM
#61
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Beach cruiser TT's
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08-05-19, 07:56 AM
#62
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And don't forget the "my license is suspended, so I can't drive" market. Any reasonably priced motor-assisted vehicle (e-bike) that doesn't require a valid drivers license is golden. (Clearly, the Specialized e-bike isn't aimed at this market. If you've got that kind of money, you just hire a daily uber.) I could see e-bikes killing off MTB sales among the suspended license crowd.
08-05-19, 11:18 AM
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Norway is confronting the issue this summer in protected areas in its national parks. E-bike riders have been turned away on the basis that they're operating motor vehicles, not pedal bicycles (which are permitted).
08-05-19, 03:15 PM
#65
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My club does a monthly TT series through the summer, it's great, we usually get around 65 people.
Every area is going to be different, but there are some pretty serious guys crushing gravel around here, retired/current Pro/Cat1 guys, etc.. Cycling is already big here, and the gravel scene is picking up. I'm sure a lot of people will just cruise on their gravel bike, just like a lot of people with Jeeps never get them dirty. When I bought my gravel bike, I made a deal with myself, if I was going to spend the money, I had to ride gravel every week. So far, so good (except for last weekend, because it's in the shop for a caliper replacement).
Personally, I love riding gravel, if I could do it every day, I would. Less traffic, get into nature, can still ride fast and cover a lot of ground.
Every area is going to be different, but there are some pretty serious guys crushing gravel around here, retired/current Pro/Cat1 guys, etc.. Cycling is already big here, and the gravel scene is picking up. I'm sure a lot of people will just cruise on their gravel bike, just like a lot of people with Jeeps never get them dirty. When I bought my gravel bike, I made a deal with myself, if I was going to spend the money, I had to ride gravel every week. So far, so good (except for last weekend, because it's in the shop for a caliper replacement).
Personally, I love riding gravel, if I could do it every day, I would. Less traffic, get into nature, can still ride fast and cover a lot of ground.
Thanks.
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08-05-19, 05:02 PM
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08-05-19, 05:20 PM
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"So . . . what's next? What cycling segment will be next to see a resurgence? Or, what yet-to-be-widespread new cycling idea is going to become the "next big thing?" What do you think? Where are all the early adopters going now?"
Unicycles!! Get on it now, before it's the next big thing!
Unicycles!! Get on it now, before it's the next big thing!
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08-05-19, 06:13 PM
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I posted this a week ago. You might enjoy it...
Interesting article about track training on a grass "velodrome" in Kansas.
https://www.velonews.com/2019/07/new...lodrome_497324
Goes back to an interesting quote:
"On the national level, USA Cycling is looking to expand access. “We have 330 million people and we have a hard time finding 20 exceptional riders to come and race on track,” Jeff Pierce, Director of Elite Athletics, Road and Track at USA Cycling, says. “They’re out there for sure. One of our issues is our lack of tracks.”
This is one way to discover new talent...
Interesting article about track training on a grass "velodrome" in Kansas.
https://www.velonews.com/2019/07/new...lodrome_497324
Goes back to an interesting quote:
"On the national level, USA Cycling is looking to expand access. “We have 330 million people and we have a hard time finding 20 exceptional riders to come and race on track,” Jeff Pierce, Director of Elite Athletics, Road and Track at USA Cycling, says. “They’re out there for sure. One of our issues is our lack of tracks.”
This is one way to discover new talent...
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08-05-19, 06:30 PM
#74
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I totally understand what you're saying. It's still a pretty blanket statement that isn't entirely true, at least for some people.
My experience is that while I encounter more cars on the road, I encounter more personal, intense interactions on gravel.
Case in point: I've never had a gun pulled on me on the road, I have on gravel.
I've never been bitten/attacked/taken out by a dog on the road, I have on gravel (and almost everyone I ride with has. Not true for road.)
I've never known a single roadie that packs heat. I know several gravel riders that do. That can't be coincidence.
Anyway, "not having to worry" about cars is well and good but it's not cars that I worry about, it's the sh*tbums driving them out in the middle of nowhere that can't been seen or tracked that I worry about.
My experience is that while I encounter more cars on the road, I encounter more personal, intense interactions on gravel.
Case in point: I've never had a gun pulled on me on the road, I have on gravel.
I've never been bitten/attacked/taken out by a dog on the road, I have on gravel (and almost everyone I ride with has. Not true for road.)
I've never known a single roadie that packs heat. I know several gravel riders that do. That can't be coincidence.
Anyway, "not having to worry" about cars is well and good but it's not cars that I worry about, it's the sh*tbums driving them out in the middle of nowhere that can't been seen or tracked that I worry about.
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08-05-19, 06:33 PM
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Against my better judgment, I tend to be an early adopter. I was doing gravel back when Dirty Kanza had fewer than 100 entrants and nobody seemed to know what gravel was. Gravel bikers were seen as rather odd by all other cyclists. Roadies couldn't imagine why anyone would WANT to ride on dirt and gravel roads. For years, nobody had a clue that gravel cycling would become the NEXT BIG THING. (I thought it was popular, in part, because it WASN'T a big thing!)
But now, the sales wave is peaking, the fad is in full force, and everybody from road cyclists to MTBers to triathletes is talking about riding gravel. (But how many gravel bike buyers will actually ever ride a dirt or gravel road?) There's a major manufacturer new gravel product introduction just about every week. The gravel segment has become the mainstream and even traditional road race bikes are feeling threatened. But even this mania won't last forever.
So . . . what's next? What cycling segment will be next to see a resurgence? Or, what yet-to-be-widespread new cycling idea is going to become the "next big thing?" What do you think? Where are all the early adopters going now?
But now, the sales wave is peaking, the fad is in full force, and everybody from road cyclists to MTBers to triathletes is talking about riding gravel. (But how many gravel bike buyers will actually ever ride a dirt or gravel road?) There's a major manufacturer new gravel product introduction just about every week. The gravel segment has become the mainstream and even traditional road race bikes are feeling threatened. But even this mania won't last forever.
So . . . what's next? What cycling segment will be next to see a resurgence? Or, what yet-to-be-widespread new cycling idea is going to become the "next big thing?" What do you think? Where are all the early adopters going now?