Yeah, the thing is though... that’s not how development of consumer products happens. To paraphrase Henry Ford, “If I’d asked people what they wanted, they would’ve asked for a faster horse.”

Forget disc brakes for a second. This idea that normally there’s an “outcry” from the market for a technology or product category is a fallacy. People invent new widgets and then try to sell them. That’s the game. Sometimes of course people “get it” right away and a new product becomes immensely popular. Sometimes it’s a dud and it just bombs. And often it’s somewhere in-between.

Obviously not everyone is sold on 1x or disc brakes. But these technologies aren’t bombing in the marketplace, either. There are teething problems, some of which will probably be resolved and some of which might not. If rim brake road bikes disappear, we’ll get along ok. The problems in the bike industry are a lot bigger than the particular technologies.

1x road, meantime, is nowhere near taking over. SRAM is pushing the tech as hard as they do because they’re true believers. And they’re steadily making it more appealing, but you’re not going to have any problems finding new bikes for 2x in the next few years. Long term, it’s not a bad bet. Think of it this way: 2x and 3x coexisted for decades as very popular options for different applications, with some overlap. As cog counts and capacities have expanded, 3x has become increasingly niche. It’s perfectly reasonable to look at that history and think the same progression could happen with 1x and 2x over time. I don’t know if that’s going to happen, but I can tell you that in my first few years on BF, probably the most recurring thread topic was people asking about converting their triple road bike to a compact double. You don’t see as many people asking about 2x-1x conversions yet. But you don’t see none, either.

I think Trek is dictating what equipment that the rider’s use. Even though Jenns says they have a choice, I can’t believe a whole team all agreed to ride disc brakes. Too much controversy with it to find 27 plus riders to all agree to ride the same setup. I don’t think Omloop is a good test for the viability of 1x12 in the pro peloton since they to the Muur out at the end.

Again, those "widgets" were not developed for road bikes--or for bikes at all. But off-road riders saw the advantages of better braking and tried to copy moto designs. Road-racers wanted better brakes too---but weight was a far bigger issue, and the simplicity of a cable-actuated rim brake was too good to pass up. So, caliper geometry and pad materials were improved---and offered plenty of stopping power, even for racers on mountain descents. (As you will note, even in the pro peloton, the fast guys use rim brakes on long climes----and the subsequent descents.)

Nobody was asking for more braking power because any rider with properly adjusted brakes could lock the rear wheel easily with decent rim brakes---who needed more power than the tires could manage?

Possibly road discs aren't "bombing" because so many manufacturers aren't offering options---you want our bike, you buy our disc brakes. Not exactly an endorsement.

As for 1x---the few riders I have ridden with using 1x were not really happy because of the compromises needed. But with SRAM's new hyper-priced wider-range system finally trickles down .... who knows? But all the peoplpe I know who have tried it tried it on gravel bikes they took on a road ride---and regretted it. And all of them had multiple bikes.

The whole point here is that bike manufacturers are Always looking for some kind of bell or whistle to encourage consumers to lay out cash for This Year's model. That is why cogs were added in back one at a time---everyone knew that more was better, but none of the big manufacturers were going to blow their wad all in one year, going from five to 11. The metallurgy was there; the understanding of physics was there. it'snot like Shimano couldn't have jumped from 8 cogs to 11 in one season ... but the marketing department wouldn't let it happen.

Road discs are a similar thing. The reason there is a push to get them onto race bikes is because some (and a rather wealthy portion) off the customer base likes to ride what the pros ride. Which is hilarious, because they make the most sense for the casual rider, not the racer. But again .... marketing.

Same with 1x.

All this stuff started off-road where it does actually make sense. Anyone with a bunch of off-road miles knows that a lot of shifting is na issue sometimes (too many other things to be doing) and close ratios are not important---generally the terrain changes so dramatically a rider will shift several gears at a time, except on long climbs---but a long climb off-road (at the pro level) is nothing like a long climb on a pro road stage. 1x works well in cyclocross and MTB because the bigger gaps aren't an issue--and also because top speed is not so much an issue.

Bringing it over to road bikes wasn't done because it offers advantages---but because it was a cool marketing hook.

SRAM is the only company to really take 1x for road seriously---and there system is untested. No one knows how a 10T cog will work on the road. off-road 10t aren't rare but they aren't used for extended top-speed runs they way they might be on a road stage. I have addressed other gearing issues above.

Possibly SRAM might tweak its package to make it more useful---who knows? Again... no one was looking for Both higher And lower gearing .... and the greater number of single-tooth steps is a canard. After a certain point, single-tooth steps are Less efficient because the change in ratio is too small to matter and riders will jump two cogs anyway. We shall see how all that plays out.

But again ... Marketing to make more money, not a quest to build a better bicycle, drives a large part of the cycling industry. The one place where :a better bicycle" is Absolutely the goal is the racing arena---where 1x and and disc brakes Are bombing.

It does make sense for the person commuting or who does social or even semi spirited rides. The only experience I know of in the ranks of professional racers was a disaster. When the owner calls out on social media how unhappy he is with the equipment, there really must have been some serious issues. I was watching the Tour of the Alps or Switzerland, I can’t remember, and the Aqua Blue riders did not look smooth or comfortable on their bikes in the climbs. I also saw them in another, less hilly race and they looked fine. I don’t believe the issue was one of fitness. Of course never say never, but Given the disaster of that experiment, I don’t see any professional teams trying that again in the near future.