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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

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Driverless cars today... where will they be in 5 years...

Old 12-12-19, 01:09 PM
  #101  
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I've noted my frequent encounter with self driving vehicles. Today I was merging left in a 45mph lane in dark and a SD minivan was coming up behind. I could have made the merge, this was to get out of lane that was turning into a RTOL, but thought I'd let them pass first. But it slowed more than a normal driver so I stuck my arm out and merged about 15' in front of it. Then we cleared the intersection, me driving in front of and I had to merge left again to avoid pothole and it slowed on my signal. Then it passed and there was no driver in the seat. Too bad all drivers are not this easy to work with.
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Old 12-12-19, 01:31 PM
  #102  
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Robots are very polite, until they get the order to attack. Then it's Judgement Day.
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Old 12-12-19, 03:09 PM
  #103  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
I listened to a podcast this morning, and there was a random mention that cars will be automated in about 20 years, and some of the job-loss consequences of that (long-haul truckers, UPS drivers, food delivery, taxis). I believe the host got that from the book Average is Over, but he didn't go into the reasoning behind that 20 years.
Considering that Celadon just fell apart due to huge human management issues, perhaps the robots need to run the company as well.
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Old 12-12-19, 04:29 PM
  #104  
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Originally Posted by noisebeam View Post
I've noted my frequent encounter with self driving vehicles. Today I was merging left in a 45mph lane in dark and a SD minivan was coming up behind. I could have made the merge, this was to get out of lane that was turning into a RTOL, but thought I'd let them pass first. But it slowed more than a normal driver so I stuck my arm out and merged about 15' in front of it. Then we cleared the intersection, me driving in front of and I had to merge left again to avoid pothole and it slowed on my signal. Then it passed and there was no driver in the seat. Too bad all drivers are not this easy to work with.
I've heard this is going to become a problem, humans will inevitably push the envelope, so maybe autonomous cars will be trained to avoid pedestrians based on pedestrian behavior today, but as pedestrians begin to trust that autonomous cars will sense them, they will grow bolder and bolder in stepping out into the street when they are closer and closer, forcing them to screech to a halt, eventually reaching a new equilibrium where, just outside the envelope, autonomous cars are not able to stop in time and the boldest/stupidest pedestrians are struck. And/or bowing to the ultimate requirement of pedestrian safety, automated cars can't get anywhere because they are constantly stopping for pedestrians who know they have 100% right of way, technologically speaking.
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Old 12-12-19, 04:34 PM
  #105  
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That is why these cars will need an AI personality so they don't get bullied. I have posted that concept several times here.

However in this case I was not pushing any envelope. Normally a human driven car would zoom past me and I'd tuck in behind them. But this car slowed so much the timing wouldn't work for me to get behind them before my lane ended so I had to signal to get in front of them. Nothing sudden or unexpected happened.

The main reason I posted about this is because it was the first time I've had such extensive interaction with a car with no person in the drivers seat. Previously I have had many interaction with self driving cars, but they always had a human in the drivers seat (but often did not have hands on steering wheel so in auto mode)
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Old 12-12-19, 04:38 PM
  #106  
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I didn't mean to imply you were pushing the envelope. It sounds like you were satisfied that the car detected and responded to your presence with generous caution. I'm glad to hear a success story, however sunny-day a use case it might be.
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Old 12-12-19, 04:43 PM
  #107  
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It was dark well before sunrise. It definitely 'saw' my arm signals.
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Old 12-12-19, 05:02 PM
  #108  
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I meant 'sunny-day' kind of metaphorically. It's a term (of art?) in at least software, the straightforward, clean-data, no-edge-case kind of input that a first iteration of software should be able to handle. Then you start adding complications
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Old 12-12-19, 05:09 PM
  #109  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
I didn't mean to imply you were pushing the envelope. It sounds like you were satisfied that the car detected and responded to your presence with generous caution. I'm glad to hear a success story, however sunny-day a use case it might be.
Of course the real question is, in such a situation... the human that fails to interact with a cyclist... is it because they actually failed to "see" the cyclist, or because they "saw" and yet felt cyclists don't matter.
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Old 12-12-19, 05:28 PM
  #110  
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It may just be my privileged suburban SoCal context talking, but I think it's much more likely that people physically 'see' cyclists, but subconsciously filter them out as non-road obstacles like trees and mailboxes and such. There are plenty of angry redneck cager stories around in BF/commuter though that scare the bejeebers out of me.
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Old 12-12-19, 05:35 PM
  #111  
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Originally Posted by RubeRad View Post
I meant 'sunny-day' kind of metaphorically. It's a term (of art?) in at least software, the straightforward, clean-data, no-edge-case kind of input that a first iteration of software should be able to handle. Then you start adding complications
Or "happy path."

That one is mostly used by testers though.
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Old 12-23-19, 12:10 PM
  #112  
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Light-duty autonomous vehicles get the green light in California

https://www.theverge.com/2019/12/18/...california-dmv
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Old 12-26-19, 02:32 PM
  #113  
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Hopefully there will be Johnny Cabs [with Robert Picardo's voice!].
(nsfw - language)
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Old 12-26-19, 10:36 PM
  #114  
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In answer to the topic question, I personally hope they're all parked.
I've read most of the way through this thread. I just hope they have them figured out enough so that when it swerves to miss a soccer ball that rolls out into the street it doesn't run the kid over that's after said ball....
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Old 12-27-19, 03:18 AM
  #115  
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Stacked 5 high in the junkyard next to all the Dodge Darts.
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Old 12-27-19, 01:02 PM
  #116  
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Originally Posted by Rollfast View Post
Stacked 5 high in the junkyard next to all the Dodge Darts GM EV1s.
ftfy

p.s. Hey waddayaknow, strikethrough still works!
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Old 12-27-19, 03:56 PM
  #117  
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Originally Posted by Rollfast View Post
Stacked 5 high in the junkyard next to all the Dodge Darts.
Maybe they will look like this, another next greatest thing that didn't work out the way some investors who threw money at it were sure it would.

Maybe in 5 years Waymo/Google/Alphabet will release their Chandler AZ test volunteers from their NDA and the public might learn something about just how wonderful and useful the Waymo driverless taxis are, probably the government officials of AZ will never ask. We might learn if any have traded in their own personally driven vehicles for the autonomous experience. Maybe when they can venture into the wild and woolly world outside of their geo-fenced Waymo playground in the test vehicles, eh?

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Old 12-29-19, 05:54 PM
  #118  
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No where near, where many think they will be.
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Old 12-29-19, 06:35 PM
  #119  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Maybe they will look like this, another next greatest thing that didn't work out the way some investors who threw money at it were sure it would.

Maybe in 5 years Waymo/Google/Alphabet will release their Chandler AZ test volunteers from their NDA and the public might learn something about just how wonderful and useful the Waymo driverless taxis are, probably the government officials of AZ will never ask. We might learn if any have traded in their own personally driven vehicles for the autonomous experience. Maybe when they can venture into the wild and woolly world outside of their geo-fenced Waymo playground in the test vehicles, eh?
Key word: maybe.
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Old 12-29-19, 07:39 PM
  #120  
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Originally Posted by skijor View Post
ftfy

p.s. Hey waddayaknow, strikethrough still works!
Only one EV-1 known to have escaped destruction by GM. They were horriby inefficient vs. a Dart anyway.
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Old 12-29-19, 07:41 PM
  #121  
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Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
Maybe they will look like this, another next greatest thing that didn't work out the way some investors who threw money at it were sure it would.

Maybe in 5 years Waymo/Google/Alphabet will release their Chandler AZ test volunteers from their NDA and the public might learn something about just how wonderful and useful the Waymo driverless taxis are, probably the government officials of AZ will never ask. We might learn if any have traded in their own personally driven vehicles for the autonomous experience. Maybe when they can venture into the wild and woolly world outside of their geo-fenced Waymo playground in the test vehicles, eh?
And not a single Colson in that pile of abandoned stuff.
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Old 12-30-19, 10:16 PM
  #122  
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Originally Posted by Seattle Forrest View Post
Key word: maybe.
True and it also applies to guesses and wishful thinking about the economic viability of developing, manufacturing and selling or operating driverless vehicles that make any economic or practical sense in the near future, beyond being interesting money burning projects for engineers and tech types backed with lots of investor/speculator money to throw around at "a good idea" in the hope of catching lightning in a bottle.
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Old 01-01-20, 08:53 PM
  #123  
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Originally Posted by skijor View Post
ftfy

p.s. Hey waddayaknow, strikethrough still works!
One less thing to complain about.
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Old 01-01-20, 11:40 PM
  #124  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Waymo has rolled out completely driverless vehicles in parts of Chandler AZ. No safety driver.

They are mapping LA; they are looking to move forward and are working with other partners. And yes, they see cyclists.

https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/01/ha...de-in-a-waymo/
Good luck with LA. It will either by autonomously totaled or autonomously in a traffic jam on the 5 during a Sigalert.
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Old 01-02-20, 10:38 AM
  #125  
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Originally Posted by genec View Post
Waymo has rolled out completely driverless vehicles in parts of Chandler AZ. No safety driver.

They are mapping LA; they are looking to move forward and are working with other partners. And yes, they see cyclists.

https://techcrunch.com/2019/11/01/ha...de-in-a-waymo/
Not much news lately from Waymo or their PR flaks on the test program progress and no predictions of their future. Here is a month old report on the allegedly "completely driverless vehicles in parts of Chandler AZ": Ghost-riding in the back seat of a robot taxi
Extract:
"There are, of course, many caveats to consider.

Waymo has been testing its vehicles in the Phoenix area since early 2017. Its self-driving cars operate in an approximately 100-square-mile service area that includes the towns Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, and Tempe. In late 2018, the company launched a limited public ride-hailing service called Waymo One, but the only customers to get access were people who had first been vetted through Waymo’s early rider program of beta testers. Last week, Waymo said it has around 1,500 monthly active users from both programs.

“It’s been an enormously difficult, complicated slog, and it’s far more complicated and involved than we thought it would be,” says Nathaniel Fairfield, who leads the team that oversees the decision-making part of Waymo’s onboard software. “But it is a huge deal.”

The geofence, or the defined geographic area, for the company’s fully driverless vehicles is much smaller, about half the size of the overall service area — or about 50 square miles. The vehicles technically can’t pick up or drop off passengers outside that zone. Even more complicated: Waymo’s fleet operations center is located outside the geofence, so a Waymo employee needs to chaperone the fully driverless-enabled vehicles into the zone each time before it makes pickups.

Only members of Waymo’s early rider program are allowed to ride in the company’s driverless vehicles. Those people sign nondisclosure agreements with the company in order to get access to early versions of Waymo’s technology. This bars them from speaking publicly when, say, one of their trips goes off course. (A review of customer feedback from 10,500 trips earlier this year by The Information found 70 percent of Waymo’s trips received the highest rating of five stars, while 30 percent were rated four stars or less.) Waymo won’t say how many people or how many trips its fully driverless vehicles have made so far.

Oh, and “fully driverless” isn’t the only way the company describes these trips. Waymo also prefers “rider only.” My guess is a focus group told them that sounded less scary than “fully driverless.”

There are other conditions to the driverless rides. I was surprised to learn that Waymo lets them drive at night, but not when it’s raining or during Phoenix’s frequent dust storms (which are known to locals as “haboobs”).

These driverless cars aren’t totally alone in the wilderness. Waymo has a team of remote employees that watch the real-time feeds of each vehicle’s eight cameras and can help, with the push of a button, if the software runs into a difficult spot and needs a human eye to figure out what’s going on. I counted at least two cameras in the headliner watching me, but no one from the rider assistance team checked in during the ride."
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