Could We Be Heading Into a "Roadie Dark Ages"?
09-29-20, 11:22 PM
#26
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Driverless cars will revolutionise roadie riding.
Got a flat? Car will come and get you.
Don't want to ride the whole loop, car will come and get you.
Love descending but too fat to climb? Car will take you up the hill.
Don't like carrying food and water? Car will bring you lunch.
Got a flat? Car will come and get you.
Don't want to ride the whole loop, car will come and get you.
Love descending but too fat to climb? Car will take you up the hill.
Don't like carrying food and water? Car will bring you lunch.
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09-30-20, 05:38 AM
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They probably will someday, but that level of autonomous driving, called "Level 5", is much harder to achieve than all the media hype has lead us to believe in the past few years. Some auto manufacturer CEOs have stated in the past year that they may never achieve Level 5 as it is such a difficult task to achieve. (Which goes to show you how well designed our brains are since we don't consider driving all that difficult of task, but I digress.)
None-the-less, I would think it'd be very possible for cars and bikes to "talk to each other" so that when an car approaches a cyclist, the car can't/won't drive over the cyclist.
Since most of us carry a phone and/or a cycle computer when we read, those devices could serve as low powered "beacons" that notify cars of our presence.
But that kind of technology still wouldn't mean I'll be needing a new bike anytime soon as the electronics won't likely be part of the bike
None-the-less, I would think it'd be very possible for cars and bikes to "talk to each other" so that when an car approaches a cyclist, the car can't/won't drive over the cyclist.
Since most of us carry a phone and/or a cycle computer when we read, those devices could serve as low powered "beacons" that notify cars of our presence. But that kind of technology still wouldn't mean I'll be needing a new bike anytime soon as the electronics won't likely be part of the bike
09-30-20, 09:33 AM
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09-30-20, 09:42 AM
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Driverless cars will revolutionise roadie riding.
Got a flat? Car will come and get you.
Don't want to ride the whole loop, car will come and get you.
Love descending but too fat to climb? Car will take you up the hill.
Don't like carrying food and water? Car will bring you lunch.
Got a flat? Car will come and get you.
Don't want to ride the whole loop, car will come and get you.
Love descending but too fat to climb? Car will take you up the hill.
Don't like carrying food and water? Car will bring you lunch.
Last edited by vespasianus; 09-30-20 at 02:26 PM.
09-30-20, 10:35 AM
#31
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I think what's trending atm in road bike design is "subtle" full suspension systems. Compliant frame/seatpost, and compliant forks /handlebar to make the ride more comfortable and perhaps even improve handling.
Another thing I'm noticing are regular road bike designs that have clear influence of gravel bike designs. Some even able to fit wider tires and can certainly be used as a gravel bike with the right tire
Another thing I'm noticing are regular road bike designs that have clear influence of gravel bike designs. Some even able to fit wider tires and can certainly be used as a gravel bike with the right tire
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09-30-20, 10:39 AM
#32
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I've said this many times but the current trend in gearing towards sup-par design with huge gaps and horrible demands on the chain will be reversed and go back. Triple fronts with tight cassettes in the rear that will perform immensely better because of electronic shifting controlling the Front Derailleur. The marketing writes itself. Just look at all the debate about gearing in this thread alone. Everyone will eat it up as long as it's done in a way to make it look like nothing that has come before.
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09-30-20, 10:43 AM
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*** EDIT *** I see that Pinarello still offers an actual suspension bike, but it's now called the K10s. So I guess the idea didn't fail like I thought. None-the-less, one won't have to wait for the future to get this "technology" as one can buy it today.
https://www.bikeradar.com/news/pinar...bike-released/
Last edited by PoorInRichfield; 09-30-20 at 10:47 AM.
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09-30-20, 10:57 AM
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Don't worry, Big Bike will think of something. And many will buy it just because.
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09-30-20, 10:59 AM
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My Domane has "suspension" so-to-speak and so does the Specialized Roubaix, but nothing like MTB bikes. That idea has already been tried and failed multiple times as shown with the 2015 Pinarello Dogma shown below. Roadies just don't want or need the complexity of or the amount of "travel" that mountain bikes need. I think what is currently available for "suspension" is likely the result of so many failed attempts in the past so it'd be hard for me to imagine that actual suspension would every be successful in the future on a road bike.
*** EDIT *** I see that Pinarello still offers an actual suspension bike, but it's now called the K10s. So I guess the idea didn't fail like I thought. None-the-less, one won't have to wait for the future to get this "technology" as one can buy it today.
https://www.bikeradar.com/news/pinar...bike-released/
*** EDIT *** I see that Pinarello still offers an actual suspension bike, but it's now called the K10s. So I guess the idea didn't fail like I thought. None-the-less, one won't have to wait for the future to get this "technology" as one can buy it today.
https://www.bikeradar.com/news/pinar...bike-released/
FFS - the rear elastomer thing has come and gone so many times over the years and in so many forms. Is Specialized still doing the zerts thing? Anyone still have buzz kill bar ends? Thudbuster seatposts are back with a vengeance with new designs. Same "stuff" - different decade.
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09-30-20, 12:54 PM
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There really isnt much left to invent in terms of function and features. Except bringing what is already invented to a lower price point. Carbon everything, Electric shifting, power meters, hydraulic brakes, full spec GPS computers etc are real nice, but is priced out of reach to many. We dont need even more expensive and exotic incremental improvements, we need what is already out there on OUR bike, rather than read about it on the interwebs.
Imo, as long as there is no significant progress in material/composites we wont see any particularly interesting new developments to frame or wheel design either.
Imo, as long as there is no significant progress in material/composites we wont see any particularly interesting new developments to frame or wheel design either.
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09-30-20, 01:23 PM
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There really isnt much left to invent in terms of function and features. Except bringing what is already invented to a lower price point. Carbon everything, Electric shifting, power meters, hydraulic brakes, full spec GPS computers etc are real nice, but is priced out of reach to many. We dont need even more expensive and exotic incremental improvements, we need what is already out there on OUR bike, rather than read about it on the interwebs.
Imo, as long as there is no significant progress in material/composites we wont see any particularly interesting new developments to frame or wheel design either.
Imo, as long as there is no significant progress in material/composites we wont see any particularly interesting new developments to frame or wheel design either.
I think we will eventually see another large drop in the power meter market but....it's really not needed. The fundamental shift of the riders to more adventure and experience riding has killed a lot of the desire to have power. It's also eliminated the previously primary need for everyone to make gear weight their biggest deciding factor.
Smart trainers has been the single focus of most recent innovation. The market has exploded with product and it's constantly changing.
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09-30-20, 01:49 PM
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I think we will eventually see another large drop in the power meter market but....it's really not needed. The fundamental shift of the riders to more adventure and experience riding has killed a lot of the desire to have power. It's also eliminated the previously primary need for everyone to make gear weight their biggest deciding factor.
I think it's about time that the deeply entrenched "weight is all that matters" philosophy dies (of which that notion is not dyeing w/o a fight in my brain
). I train with power in the winter on Zwift, but have concluded that for the type of riding I do outdoors which is non-competitive, it just doesn't make sense to me to spending $300+ dollars for data I won't do anything with. I do foresee the day when power meters are super cheap, like $100 or less cheap, as market forces and competition keep driving the costs down. As stated, power meters haven't been out all that long and already the prices have come down considerably.
09-30-20, 02:06 PM
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09-30-20, 04:05 PM
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Not a huge sample size, but the thing that I've consistently seen is that people that get smart trainers follow up with power meters because they then want that same info for IRL rides.
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09-30-20, 04:46 PM
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Bicycles have stayed with the same basic design since the 19th century (2 wheels & mechanical driven), everything else has just been details. I think we saw with electronic shifting & hydraulic brakes the biggest technological advances that we will see for awhile. However since the question was what MIGHT be new, I think it will be integration or internal features. They have integrated stems, maybe integrated water bottles (some Tri frames have them), integrated wheels, or something crazy like a single brake shifter that operates both brakes simultaneously. New materials could always be a possibility, at least for professionals initially, if companies can refine or perfect a metal like Magnesium or Scandium they could make frames or components.
09-30-20, 04:52 PM
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The gearing options are going to heck.
No company sells a 12 speed cassette having one tooth jumps through the 19 cog.
To reduce COGS and increase profit, 1X road setups are coming our way which won't allow the tightly spaced gears and wide range of double cranks let alone triples.
09-30-20, 05:00 PM
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There's very little percentage difference between 9-10-11 tooth sprockets. Frequently exaggerated on bike forums. The idea is to get a larger range without using huge sprockets at the low end. Hence Campy's 9-42 for a 467% range.
09-30-20, 05:39 PM
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More wireless electronics. Electronic activated brakes first. Head units integrated into the "cockpit" with better HUD. Electronic lane assist (Varia on steroids). More integrated lighting.
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09-30-20, 05:40 PM
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09-30-20, 05:44 PM
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The creation of the "gravel" market segment and it's related growth totally surprised me. I thought for sure it would just go away like past attempts to put knobby tires on road bikes, but I guess not!
I think it's about time that the deeply entrenched "weight is all that matters" philosophy dies (of which that notion is not dyeing w/o a fight in my brain ).
I train with power in the winter on Zwift, but have concluded that for the type of riding I do outdoors which is non-competitive, it just doesn't make sense to me to spending $300+ dollars for data I won't do anything with. I do foresee the day when power meters are super cheap, like $100 or less cheap, as market forces and competition keep driving the costs down. As stated, power meters haven't been out all that long and already the prices have come down considerably.
I think it's about time that the deeply entrenched "weight is all that matters" philosophy dies (of which that notion is not dyeing w/o a fight in my brain
).I train with power in the winter on Zwift, but have concluded that for the type of riding I do outdoors which is non-competitive, it just doesn't make sense to me to spending $300+ dollars for data I won't do anything with. I do foresee the day when power meters are super cheap, like $100 or less cheap, as market forces and competition keep driving the costs down. As stated, power meters haven't been out all that long and already the prices have come down considerably.
Weight being all that matter definitely needed to die, but so too did "aero is everything". A lighter weight set of well built wheels that has a modicum of aeroness is truly worth it. All aero or all light is stupid (IMHO)
As for power meters they've been around since the 90's. They started becoming THE thing around 2007ish. Peaked around 2013-2015 ish. Have really dropped in terms of sales numbers since then. Sure a lot of people ride with them but it's not like what it was. Some of that ran with the Road peak as well. One year during the peak I sold something like 250 powertap hubs. It's been months since I sold a powermeter of any type and I sell them all almost. Less people want to use power meters on "awesome" gravel adventures. It harsh's their handlebar bag aesthetic.
I've seen a very small amount of that. More so though I see people that have just moved indoors and have given up on riding outside, or are people for whom riding only exists as an indoor activity and it's exercise. Kind of like what the treadmill did to running. Lots of indoor users who not only don't have an appreciation for doing the same activity outdoors but also have no desire to try it.
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09-30-20, 07:01 PM
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09-30-20, 07:56 PM
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*** This post is just a theoretical pondering of the future... Don't take it too seriously! ***
By "dark ages", I am suggesting that there won't be any significant changes in road bike technologies for many, many years to come beyond what we already have.
While I love new technologies, especially when it comes to my bikes, I also have a sensible-side that tells me that it makes no (financial) sense to buy a new bike every year. As such, I've gone over a decade in the past where I just rode the bike I had and wasn't tempted much to buy a new one as there just wasn't enough to be gained by purchasing a new bike. To me, it's just not worth spending thousands on a new bike if the only "improvement" is that it's a few grams lighter or a few seconds faster (over 1,000 miles if you ride at > 50 mph)
This last Spring I decided it was time to "upgrade" as there has been quite a few advances in the road bike world that allowed me to justify a new bike and were changes that I couldn't simply "upgrade" on my existing bike. Those technologies being disk brakes, an endurance frame (comfort), and electronic shifting (Ok, so I could've upgraded to electronic shifting, but the upgrade was not cost-effective at all).
So now I'm wondering what technological improvements in road bikes, that don't already exist today, could possibly come-along that would be justify purchasing a new road bike in the next few years... or even decade?
I think we've reached "peak aero" in terms of bike design as most road bikes are starting to look the same. If one really wants to be all-out aero, he/she should be riding a triathlete bike or time-trial bike, which we all know isn't practical for daily road riding so truth-be-told, aero isn't everything in road biking. We also seemed to have reach "peak lightness" in that unless there's some new space-aged material that comes along that is strong enough to be used on all bike parts (wheels, components, frame), new bikes will only be marginally lighter than existing bikes, if they're even lighter at all. While companies have experimented with different frame shapes for road bikes, the "double diamond" frame seems to be the time-tested frame shape that most bikes still use and I don't see that changing. Disc brakes are providing all the stopping power we need... and quite frankly, so did rim brakes. Electronic shifting has been around for quite a while and other than going wireless, hasn't changed much.
So what else is there left to "improve" on a road bike? Clearly the bicycle industry has shifted focus to e-bikes, which makes sense financially, but is yet one more reason why I'm thinking that we aren't going to see any significant changes in the road bike world for years, maybe even decades. Do you disagree? Where do you think there is an opportunity for relatively large changes in road bikes that would justify buying a new bike that is significantly better than what we can already buy today?
While concept bikes such as this one are fun to think about, the reality is that real life bikes still look a lot more like the bikes of 100 years ago than they do this future bike.
By "dark ages", I am suggesting that there won't be any significant changes in road bike technologies for many, many years to come beyond what we already have.
While I love new technologies, especially when it comes to my bikes, I also have a sensible-side that tells me that it makes no (financial) sense to buy a new bike every year. As such, I've gone over a decade in the past where I just rode the bike I had and wasn't tempted much to buy a new one as there just wasn't enough to be gained by purchasing a new bike. To me, it's just not worth spending thousands on a new bike if the only "improvement" is that it's a few grams lighter or a few seconds faster (over 1,000 miles if you ride at > 50 mph)
This last Spring I decided it was time to "upgrade" as there has been quite a few advances in the road bike world that allowed me to justify a new bike and were changes that I couldn't simply "upgrade" on my existing bike. Those technologies being disk brakes, an endurance frame (comfort), and electronic shifting (Ok, so I could've upgraded to electronic shifting, but the upgrade was not cost-effective at all).
So now I'm wondering what technological improvements in road bikes, that don't already exist today, could possibly come-along that would be justify purchasing a new road bike in the next few years... or even decade?
I think we've reached "peak aero" in terms of bike design as most road bikes are starting to look the same. If one really wants to be all-out aero, he/she should be riding a triathlete bike or time-trial bike, which we all know isn't practical for daily road riding so truth-be-told, aero isn't everything in road biking. We also seemed to have reach "peak lightness" in that unless there's some new space-aged material that comes along that is strong enough to be used on all bike parts (wheels, components, frame), new bikes will only be marginally lighter than existing bikes, if they're even lighter at all. While companies have experimented with different frame shapes for road bikes, the "double diamond" frame seems to be the time-tested frame shape that most bikes still use and I don't see that changing. Disc brakes are providing all the stopping power we need... and quite frankly, so did rim brakes. Electronic shifting has been around for quite a while and other than going wireless, hasn't changed much.
So what else is there left to "improve" on a road bike? Clearly the bicycle industry has shifted focus to e-bikes, which makes sense financially, but is yet one more reason why I'm thinking that we aren't going to see any significant changes in the road bike world for years, maybe even decades. Do you disagree? Where do you think there is an opportunity for relatively large changes in road bikes that would justify buying a new bike that is significantly better than what we can already buy today?
While concept bikes such as this one are fun to think about, the reality is that real life bikes still look a lot more like the bikes of 100 years ago than they do this future bike.
Last edited by Litespud; 09-30-20 at 08:01 PM.
09-30-20, 09:03 PM
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