fantasy tour de france 2020 + general tdf discussion
#201
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ooga-booga ...any way in hell Sagan can come back and take the green? Line up the Bora train for the two sprint stages remaining and try to steamroll to the end!?! Only option?
#203
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they've got a rest day to figure it out. hopefully their plan won't be to pull a bojangles manuever (against higuita) and take out s. bennett but their options are getting increasingly limited.
1. hoping that bennett misses the time cut on one of the upcoming mtn stages or crashes out or pulls a sagan (too soon, i know) and gets dq'd from the race. analysis-unlikely.
2. hoping covid-19 does what it does so well and bounces team dqs outta the race. analysis-unlikely.
3. putting team bora through the paces stages 16-19 (team jv might be down with bora pushing the pace early on during those 4 stages) analysis-likely.
4. sagan going on some crazy, thor-like escapade/break on a mtn stage to score sprint points. analysis-increasingly possible and dependent on stage 16 results/success.
5. sagan will likely finish in the top 8 in the final stage but bennett could win the stage outright (altho i'm still picking wout) and sagan will need a buffer to cover the point allocations in case
bennett finishes significantly higher than sagan.
team bora isn't riding for anything else but the green jersey and stage wins currently. schachmann and kamna have looked good lately and either is capable of pulling off a stage win but
i think the chances that either of them (or both) take a stage win is significantly less than their chances of winning the green jersey.
1. hoping that bennett misses the time cut on one of the upcoming mtn stages or crashes out or pulls a sagan (too soon, i know) and gets dq'd from the race. analysis-unlikely.
2. hoping covid-19 does what it does so well and bounces team dqs outta the race. analysis-unlikely.
3. putting team bora through the paces stages 16-19 (team jv might be down with bora pushing the pace early on during those 4 stages) analysis-likely.
4. sagan going on some crazy, thor-like escapade/break on a mtn stage to score sprint points. analysis-increasingly possible and dependent on stage 16 results/success.
5. sagan will likely finish in the top 8 in the final stage but bennett could win the stage outright (altho i'm still picking wout) and sagan will need a buffer to cover the point allocations in case
bennett finishes significantly higher than sagan.
team bora isn't riding for anything else but the green jersey and stage wins currently. schachmann and kamna have looked good lately and either is capable of pulling off a stage win but
i think the chances that either of them (or both) take a stage win is significantly less than their chances of winning the green jersey.
#204
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rest day/end of week two/beginning of week three recap:
tdf tissot league is proving to be an absolute barnburner. wild, stock-marketesque swings of fortune and failure within the space of two stages for many.
team slow (s)pokes has likely bribed its way to the top ahead of a rest day, thus insuring being at the top of the leaderboard for two days. i don't trust that
diphthong one bit. conniving/manipulative as all you know what. the good news? there are like 6 teams within immediate (well there is that pesky rest day, but otherwise...)
striking distance of knocking that hoser off the podium and for good. i mean that team has a whole two point lead over the next team. two points. 2. one two. yeah, really
insurmountable. i like the field's chances of bouncing that poser-and soon. probably the only time that doofus has ever been grateful for a rest day...
tdf gbbg league is a little more leisurely currently. the leader dropped from 5th out of 13,428 participants at the end of the first week to 250th out of 13,428 participants today.
his secret weapon crashed out of the game and in doing so, takes away a projected 750 points. many would question the wisdom (except slcbob) of selecting
mollema as a secret weapon and they will likely be justified at the game's end. you all know about the "rabbit" that runs marathons and goes out to set a superfast pace
but then fades into oblivion? yeah. same team name as the one in the tdf tissot league. what are the odds this dweezil is at the top of both leagues at the same time before a
rest day? sabotage is a french word but that bleeper better hope their life insurance is paid up...
tdf tissot league is proving to be an absolute barnburner. wild, stock-marketesque swings of fortune and failure within the space of two stages for many.
team slow (s)pokes has likely bribed its way to the top ahead of a rest day, thus insuring being at the top of the leaderboard for two days. i don't trust that
diphthong one bit. conniving/manipulative as all you know what. the good news? there are like 6 teams within immediate (well there is that pesky rest day, but otherwise...)
striking distance of knocking that hoser off the podium and for good. i mean that team has a whole two point lead over the next team. two points. 2. one two. yeah, really
insurmountable. i like the field's chances of bouncing that poser-and soon. probably the only time that doofus has ever been grateful for a rest day...
tdf gbbg league is a little more leisurely currently. the leader dropped from 5th out of 13,428 participants at the end of the first week to 250th out of 13,428 participants today.
his secret weapon crashed out of the game and in doing so, takes away a projected 750 points. many would question the wisdom (except slcbob) of selecting
mollema as a secret weapon and they will likely be justified at the game's end. you all know about the "rabbit" that runs marathons and goes out to set a superfast pace
but then fades into oblivion? yeah. same team name as the one in the tdf tissot league. what are the odds this dweezil is at the top of both leagues at the same time before a
rest day? sabotage is a french word but that bleeper better hope their life insurance is paid up...
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^ the wisdom of anything I mirrored is de facto questionable.
Mr Bojangles. Mr Bojangles. Mr Bojangles. Damn. That was an erratic move. I don't for a moment suspect any intent and am sure he feels horrible, though not quite as bad as Higuita. Bad luck.
Shocking the point spread, or lack thereof, in the Tissot league. I am really regretting futzing around on the team bus and missing the sign in for stage 1.
In VG GBBG, I had a jour sans ike Bernal and am consigned to finishing unremarkably. I may still make an occasional remark.
In real life, do you think Bennet was like a green limpet on Sagan all the way through the breakfast buffet?
Mr Bojangles. Mr Bojangles. Mr Bojangles. Damn. That was an erratic move. I don't for a moment suspect any intent and am sure he feels horrible, though not quite as bad as Higuita. Bad luck.
Shocking the point spread, or lack thereof, in the Tissot league. I am really regretting futzing around on the team bus and missing the sign in for stage 1.
In VG GBBG, I had a jour sans ike Bernal and am consigned to finishing unremarkably. I may still make an occasional remark.
In real life, do you think Bennet was like a green limpet on Sagan all the way through the breakfast buffet?
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I'm continually impressed with how tight knit DQ is with their riders, especially watching sam Bennett. Not only is Bennett pacing Sagan, I love how morkov is constantly leading out Bennett at the intermediate sprints only to fall back just before the line and take points from Sagan. Sagan is going to have to find his legs or it's over. Bennett is stronger and with a stronger team. Kinda confused Bora brought Buchmann tbh.
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I think Sagan scores a solid dozen or more in the intermediate vs. Sam and I have no conjecture beyond that for 16.
I give Bennett 2 pts back on 17 then Sagan scores well on 18 and great on 19. May make it a race, even if Bennett survives the Covid tests and the Alps.
I give Bennett 2 pts back on 17 then Sagan scores well on 18 and great on 19. May make it a race, even if Bennett survives the Covid tests and the Alps.
#209
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stage sixteen...picking de gendt ftw but hoping it's alaphilippe instead. those points would come in mighty handy. team groupama-fdj has been very quiet lately...
#210
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nice ride by känma to stay away for nearly 20 km. looking more probable every day that bora will not win the green jersey but at least they’ve got a stage win.
Last edited by diphthong; 09-15-20 at 07:20 PM.
#211
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they've got a rest day to figure it out. hopefully their plan won't be to pull a bojangles manuever (against higuita) and take out s. bennett but their options are getting increasingly limited.
1. hoping that bennett misses the time cut on one of the upcoming mtn stages or crashes out or pulls a sagan (too soon, i know) and gets dq'd from the race. analysis-unlikely.
2. hoping covid-19 does what it does so well and bounces team dqs outta the race. analysis-unlikely.
3. putting team bora through the paces stages 16-19 (team jv might be down with bora pushing the pace early on during those 4 stages) analysis-likely.
4. sagan going on some crazy, thor-like escapade/break on a mtn stage to score sprint points. analysis-increasingly possible and dependent on stage 16 results/success.
5. sagan will likely finish in the top 8 in the final stage but bennett could win the stage outright (altho i'm still picking wout) and sagan will need a buffer to cover the point allocations in case
bennett finishes significantly higher than sagan.
team bora isn't riding for anything else but the green jersey and stage wins currently. schachmann and kamna have looked good lately and either is capable of pulling off a stage win but
i think the chances that either of them (or both) take a stage win is significantly less than their chances of winning the green jersey.
1. hoping that bennett misses the time cut on one of the upcoming mtn stages or crashes out or pulls a sagan (too soon, i know) and gets dq'd from the race. analysis-unlikely.
2. hoping covid-19 does what it does so well and bounces team dqs outta the race. analysis-unlikely.
3. putting team bora through the paces stages 16-19 (team jv might be down with bora pushing the pace early on during those 4 stages) analysis-likely.
4. sagan going on some crazy, thor-like escapade/break on a mtn stage to score sprint points. analysis-increasingly possible and dependent on stage 16 results/success.
5. sagan will likely finish in the top 8 in the final stage but bennett could win the stage outright (altho i'm still picking wout) and sagan will need a buffer to cover the point allocations in case
bennett finishes significantly higher than sagan.
team bora isn't riding for anything else but the green jersey and stage wins currently. schachmann and kamna have looked good lately and either is capable of pulling off a stage win but
i think the chances that either of them (or both) take a stage win is significantly less than their chances of winning the green jersey.
#212
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I'm thinking Caleb is going to have to pull one out his butt to avoid elimination tomorrow.
Poga/Roglic/Some other GC contender at the finish.
Poga/Roglic/Some other GC contender at the finish.
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#213
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stage seventeen...taking martinez for the win. if it comes down to the top gc guys tho in a sprint, it’s gotta be pogacar.
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Just really hoping Uran can maintain. Some of those final grades are steep and come like a quick punch then back to normal. Perfect for Pogacar or Lopez. I think Uran could launch an attack at the base of the col and grind away at Pogacar or Lopez but he'll loose time if they arrive close to the top together.
Nobody's mentioned Porte huh? I expect to see him do really well, too bad he's so close in GC he's not getting into a break. Gonna throw out a wild one with Cousin ftw. A double showing by Martinez would be incredible for EF.
Nobody's mentioned Porte huh? I expect to see him do really well, too bad he's so close in GC he's not getting into a break. Gonna throw out a wild one with Cousin ftw. A double showing by Martinez would be incredible for EF.
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I heard speculation tv today that Bernal is deliberately losing time so that he can be in it for a stage win tomorrow. Anyone want to buy that bridge?
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Just really hoping Uran can maintain. Some of those final grades are steep and come like a quick punch then back to normal. Perfect for Pogacar or Lopez. I think Uran could launch an attack at the base of the col and grind away at Pogacar or Lopez but he'll loose time if they arrive close to the top together.
Nobody's mentioned Porte huh? I expect to see him do really well, too bad he's so close in GC he's not getting into a break. Gonna throw out a wild one with Cousin ftw. A double showing by Martinez would be incredible for EF.
Nobody's mentioned Porte huh? I expect to see him do really well, too bad he's so close in GC he's not getting into a break. Gonna throw out a wild one with Cousin ftw. A double showing by Martinez would be incredible for EF.
Speaking of history, I have Pinot, Le Tour and Chevalier on me team in Tissot. Somehow, after today, I'm in 2nd place despite my "French connection".
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#217
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thinking no. sivakov looks fully recovered from the stage one (i think) crash. both he and carapaz (finishing 4th and 2nd respectively) lit it up as did amador. could bernal win stage 17 or 18? possibly. is he sandbagging and just had a really bad day? probably not. is bernal still suffering from the dauphiné injuries? probably. has he done anything to show us he’s riding better than 25 other riders (i’d even take pinot‘s chances ahead of his) that you could make an argument for taking stage 17?
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Winning a stage,probably. Getting on the podium, no way. He's hurting, the team is hurting. Poor planning,IMO. Kinda un-Ineos like. They'll need to re-group for next season after these remaining races.
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thinking no. sivakov looks fully recovered from the stage one (i think) crash. both he and carapaz (finishing 4th and 2nd respectively) lit it up as did amador. could bernal win stage 17 or 18? possibly. is he sandbagging and just had a really bad day? probably not. is bernal still suffering from the dauphiné injuries? probably. has he done anything to show us he’s riding better than 25 other riders (i’d even take pinot‘s chances ahead of his) that you could make an argument for taking stage 17?
Sunday night, I saw someone making a claim that Bernal was a lock to win stage 16. I think it was on the VeloNews site. I told him that I liked Sagan's chances better.
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Just really hoping Uran can maintain. Some of those final grades are steep and come like a quick punch then back to normal. Perfect for Pogacar or Lopez. I think Uran could launch an attack at the base of the col and grind away at Pogacar or Lopez but he'll loose time if they arrive close to the top together.
Nobody's mentioned Porte huh? I expect to see him do really well, too bad he's so close in GC he's not getting into a break. Gonna throw out a wild one with Cousin ftw. A double showing by Martinez would be incredible for EF.
Nobody's mentioned Porte huh? I expect to see him do really well, too bad he's so close in GC he's not getting into a break. Gonna throw out a wild one with Cousin ftw. A double showing by Martinez would be incredible for EF.
#221
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I give that excuse a 0.0001% chance of not being BS. I was just asking so that I could offer the sucker who'd buy that bridge a nice insurance policy.
Sunday night, I saw someone making a claim that Bernal was a lock to win stage 16. I think it was on the VeloNews site. I told him that I liked Sagan's chances better.
Sunday night, I saw someone making a claim that Bernal was a lock to win stage 16. I think it was on the VeloNews site. I told him that I liked Sagan's chances better.
Last edited by diphthong; 09-15-20 at 05:44 PM.
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agreed. speaking of pinot, his was the first name that popped into my head after looking at stage 17 profile/route along with the standings. second name was martinez. sticking with martimez. i think pinot came through for me during last year’s tdf on a not so horrible prediction during a third week mtn stage. *edit-stage 14 end of 2nd week.* it’ll be interesting to see if pinot or the team can pull off a win. reichenback gave it a nice try today. gaudu would have helped but he bounced today.
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#225
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