RupertCornelius

I've recently watched some videos of Justin Williams winning crits, including the US nationals and realized I don't really know what separates him (or someone like him) from a World Tour sprinter.

Hypothetically, how would he fair in a world tour race? Get dropped before the final sprint? Not have the power to hang with the likes of Sagan and Viviani in the final sprint? Be a contender for the win?

berner

There is no telling in advance how well people like Williams would do against professionals. For one thing, professionals can devote full time to training and as a consequence be stronger and have greater endurance. The Williams of the world would have to actually turn pro to be competitive.

Doge

He would not be there for the finish. It is like comparing 100m running sprint to a 5K, or swimming.
In a SoCal crit I wouldn't bet on Sagan or Cav winning - depends who shows up. But turn it around, I wouldn't bet on JW being there at mile 70. It is different.

colombo357

Ridiculous.

Top US crit racers all have 400w+ FTPs and will easily hang with the WorldTour peloton on the flats. To suggest that Justin Williams will get dropped doing 250 watts (typical power output hanging in the group in a Grand Tour) after 3 hours is utter nonsense.

MinnMan

This is a very interesting discussion. I don't know much about Justin Williams. If he were world tour material, wouldn't the teams be making offers? Or is he simply not interested?

Doge

I commented from first hand experience seeing him at many races over 5 years. I also spent some time around WT pros and those with truly high FTP (they are not sprinters). So I have basis to compare. JW endurance has become better the last couple years - particularly in Haggerstown where he impressed everyone beating all the amateurs. Top US crit riders have a sprint and short power, 400W for an hour (FTP) would be high.
Last year he won the non-pro NC races in Haggerstown. You can see he wins crits - a lot. Start getting to the RR and Stage races which is what this thread is about and the results are not the same, racing USA pros, amateurs and juniors. As I posted, it is different.

- VOS 2019 48/74 in RR, 71/78 in TT - not 400W+
- San Dimas SR 2018 40/71 GC, 78/87 TT
- Chico SR 2018 58/70, RR 68/76

Obviously he has a tremendous sprint, and is smart and takes it easy on TTs. I see no evidence based on results racing UCI pros (he is not one) that he could stay with them in the normal stage. The managers would not allow it. Riders ride differently when there is a sprinter there and the radios would come into play. Every bump would be attacked, and opportunity for cross winds would be exploited. Could he go in circles for 1 hour with WT pros - sure. USA crits are not much over 90 min and 70 miles is 3 hours in. I have not seen any real results against even USA pros that make me willing to bet on him being there at mile 70. Can you point some out?:

https://legacy.usacycling.org/result...compid=197316+

Doge

I don't think he is even a USA pro - he wasn't last year.
He is not WT pro material. He places in the bottom 50% of most USA road races and events over 2 hours. I have no idea why the comparison here.

colombo357

I'm sure he would not be competitive at the WorldTour level.

But there's a big difference between that and getting dropped 70 miles into a 100 mile flat stage.

colombo357

Well, he's 30 years old.

He wins Pro/1/2 crits. Lots of them. All of his training centers around winning crits, through constant accelerations and aggressive positioning tactics.

Very unlikely that anyone in his position would give that all up just to be pack fodder in the UCI pro peloton.

colombo357

When he enters a stage race, he has one goal in mind, to win sprint stages.

In any climbing or TT stage, his singular objective is to conserve energy. The difference in effort and fatigue between a 40K TT @ threshold vs a 40K TT at tempo is night and day.

Doge

You called my statement "I wouldn't bet on JW being there at mile 70. It is different." ridiculous. I posted the result evidence of races over 3 hours where he is not there. That is in the USA, not WT pros. I have not seen evidence that he would be there - which is why I would not bet on him being there. I would not bet on the UCI World Champion track sprinter being there either. It is different.

My "It is different" is part of what you are talking about. It is also that WT riders are on teams - with drivers in the car and radios. They know how to get a rider off the back if needed - particularly one without a team. So if you create unrealistic scenarios like we now put him on a team, or we drop him in at mile 90 or his max sprint in the crit is as fast as any WT rider - sure - he is fast, faster than the WT sprinters. But that is not reality. To win a WT sprint you must be on a team that is entered. You must have your managers and directors in the car have a plan for you to win and you must be there at the end, something we have only evidence to the contrary.
JW is not up to any of that.
I'd agree if it was a 100 mile Fondo with everyone tooling along, no teams, and Sagan and JW were there at the end - I would bet on JW over Sagan winning the sprint. Just that was not the scenario given.
If there were teams and Sagan knew JW was in for the win - JW would be dispatched much earlier.

Doge

@colombo357 too...
It kinda dawned on me that many are not aware that Cat 1 Nationals is the 4th most competitive USA National championship. It is the only one where no pros are allowed.
For speed it is typically from slowest to fastest -> Men's Cat1 - Men's Juniors, Men's U23, then at a different Venue - Men's pro.
The average speeds on Strava will reflect that ranking, while year to year, you may see a difference. The U23 ITT winner, also had his way with the US Pro ITT.

aclinjury

Stop the nonsense.
I can say with almost 100% certainty that all top Socal crit racers don't come anywhere close to that. In fact, many WT guys don't even have a 400w FTP.

Ridiculous to even think a non-pro can hang with WT guys in actual WT races. Remind me of guys saying that a fast 100m Olympic sprinter would make a great football receiver. Wrong. Internet is fantasy.

colombo357

Maybe. 10+ years ago.

These days we have things like Youtube and Strava to deduce actual power numbers, even when riders try to downplay them.

aclinjury

well if JT (and all top US crit racers) can average over 400w for an hour and better than Sagan in a headsup sprint, then JT (and all top US crit racers) would be in the league of Andrei Greipel and Kristopher Kristoff and should be contending in Classics, and making million$?

colombo357

Your words, not mine.

Reread Post #3 and Post #4 .

@Doge speculated in Post #3 that Justin Williams would be dropped by mile 70 in a WorldTour road race. You think a guy who specializes in chasing wheels can't hang in the peloton and noodle for 3 hours at 250w?

Take a look at this Strava ride profile. Robert Gesink, 2015 TdF Stage 7, which ended in a bunch sprint. 231w weighted average power for the day. https://www.strava.com/activities/343101722

aclinjury

Why would you compare JT to a guy like Robert Gesink, who's more of a climber?
How about try comparing JT to the likes of Greipel, Kristoff, Cobrelli, you know, the guys that will be his direct competitos. Or do you think that JT will be competing with Gesink in any WT race?
Like I said, you're like that guy who thinks that anyone with a 4.4 40-yard will make a great football receiver, huh? Very simple analysis amigo.

colombo357

I'm talking to a brick wall here.

Do you even ride?

colombo357

No, you just don't have the mental capacity to connect the dots yourself.

Robert Gesink did not contend for Stage 7 like most other riders in the tour that day. Anyone who doesn't contend for a flat stage is pack fodder for most the day, regardless of his specialty.

Hanging in the pack, he did 230 watts. That's what it took to not get dropped that day.

Understand that, amigo? I doubt it.

Doge

I just postd this in another thread. My kid is the last highlighted one. He's 145lbs here. The 3 above are pros. No PM on his bike, but tracking about the same speed, I'd guess about 400FTP. JW - is no where near that at still about the same weight. Sprinting is different.

aclinjury

I see you're a noob at this, aren't you?!
Sorry pal, but when a question like "can JW hang with WT sprinters", we're basically only interested in knowing if JW could be there at the end with the other WT sprinters, you know, when it matters most.
No body gives a shh if JW can noodle along in a WT peloton on the flat (which takes well under 200w to hang in, shhh a lot of them are easily coasting at 25 mph while eating pizza all day long in this scenario).
Why in the world would ANYONE compare a climber to a sprinter deduce his reasoning how well could a sprinter do against other sprinters??? I'm not lacking mental capacity amigo. And if JW could hang with WT sprinters, he'd already be one making million$$$, isnt it?!

And I'm still waiting for all the top US crit racers to post their 400+w FTP

john m flores 

This whole "can JW sit in the peloton for 70 miles?" is a ruse; who cares if he can be a domestique on the world stage? What we really want to know is this...can JW can go wheel to wheel with the world's best in a bunch sprint and be the force of nature that we all admire? His SR results suggest no and since he's 31, we'll never know if a properly nurtured JW could have made the leap. JW alludes to either racism or unconscious bias affecting his development, so I respect what he is doing to promote and develop cycling within his community.

Doge

In a USA crit - likely. But then, so might some track riders. He DNF's track nationals, so hard to tell there.
Some of the USA RR kids are very very fast now. On an open straightaway, not knocking elbows, or weaving through riders, which he is very good at - I would not bet on him over a bunch of the U23 kids. Last crit I watched him in, San Rafael he placed well, a 20 year old won. Sure, it did not come down to a big sprint at the end. But that is how racing works.

aclinjury

Good post! I don't know JW personally, but I can definitely see the racism in cycling affecting/hindering his ambition to go further. You just don't see a lot of black kids getting a chance to develop in cycling from an early age. But there is absolutely no denying (at least in my eyes) that when black kids are given a chance to develop from an early age in many sports, eg, track & field, distance running, stick & ball sports, they excel!

Doge

This thread is about how a USA amateur, now 30, who wins a lot after racing 90 min would do in a sprint against World Tour pros racing 5 hours a day, in some cases back to back.
The better discussion would be what open class USA road races he could win. His association with a color, or race has little to do with anything as we are looking at an individual and that person's performance. But for sake of argument...

Most kids, given the chance to be stars in a variety of sports, would not choose cycling. If you believe that, that means we don't really have an even sample to use for comparison. If there is $50M on the line then you might say, the best are showing up for that, but not so in cycling, where it might be so in the NFL, NBA or soccer.

Color is a weird competitive point. Different sports/events favor different attributes. These can be found in larger numbers in a variety of groups sliced by race, gender, age - many ways. A West African (lived there 4 years) vs East African (lived there 4 years too) are quite different in the types of sports they excel at. On average, I'd expect the sprinters from one region, and the long endurance from another - both are similar skin color. Skin color is the least interesting part of their make-up that would make them competitive World Tour type riders. I was not aware of any complaints of racism. I think, having seen JW race, he just is not a WT type racer. I wish WT races were shorter (I have a thread on that), but they are not. JW, from results and observations will not win those WT types of races, so he is not a WT rider.