USAZorro

diphthong

this should be where team astana either establishes their pecking order or plays
hinault vs. lemond II squared...x-box style.

jaxgtr

That is one ugly climb at the end.

Eljimberino

Contador to put 20 seconds on Evans at the end?

bdcheung

I'm getting in here to be the first to say that this stage will shut all the Lance fanboys up.

kimconyc

Probably.

Reid Rothchild

Not a bad scenario! Just desserts to see him have to hang on for two weeks by a thread. I was hoping for a more dramatic buildup until he cracked on Ventoux. I'd really like to see the guy show his true colors with the intra Astana squabbles. We'll see....

USAZorro

What kind of sadist puts two sprints on the slopes of an HC climb?

Definitely will be fireworks here.

Eljimberino

hey, did you see what happened there?

In any case, may be Evans will rip out some Dauphine action on Contador's ass, taking the stage and putting 20 seconds on The Prince.

Excellent tour so far.

hocker

This stage starts the Tour. Evans will have to attack to make up some time. AC could be in Yellow after this stage.

Eljimberino

Evans and Sastre working together? They have to try something. I can see A Schleck chipping in too to break Armstrong. Menchov will go off the front. Gesink to work with him? Contador strolls, loses no time or energy.

diphthong

methinks prudhomme may be "channeling" the spirit of henri desgrange.
maybe he'll ban rear derailleurs next

Dolomiti

The final climb isn't steep at all. In the Vuelta, it tends to keep riders in groups, drafting each other.

Tsuru

How steep is it?

It's a whole lotta climbing though... and apparently the finish is one of the highest elevations the race ever had at 2,200 meters. Ugh.



edit --- found it:

• Km 32.0 - Côte de Montserrat - 4.1 km climb to 3.8 % - Category 4
• Km 97.0 - Port de Solsona - 5.8 km climb to 4.3 % - Category 3
• Km 127.0 - Col de Serra-Seca - 7.7 km climb to 7.1 % - Category 1
• Km 136.5 - Port del Comte - 3.1 km climb to 5.3 % - Category 3
• Km 224.0 - ANDORRE ARCALIS - 10.6 km climb to 7.1 % - Category H

USAZorro

There may be a winning group, but it's not going to be a large one.

Dolomiti

Looks like best spot to attack is around 10km to go, though a GC rider would have a really hard time of staying away. The last seven kilometers aren't hard. The only other significant climb on the stage is the Serra-Seca. This stage may be more about preventing losses, like a GC rider having a bad day.

The Verbier on stage 15 looks significantly harder:

But compare these to the Ventoux!

Profiles are useful because average gradient may deceive, if part of the climb is practically flat while an other part is really steep.

Tsuru

I'm out of breath just looking at them.....


You think elevation will be a factor at all??

USAZorro

For the climbers? No.

I think Contador will ride the last climb like he's the race leader, and see what he might have left the last km or two to possibly put some time into the others.

cibai

This is a classic set up for an "up the road helper" on the 1st Cat climb. I really think that with the HC beginning so shortly after that the action is going to really begin in earnest on the first cat climb.

Ventoux is a hell of a HC climb, but it is much more mellow before the climb. This stage not so much.

daveF

Verbier, however, has a really smooth road surface. The roads in the Pyrenees tend to be much less so.

the shark

I have read in a couple of places that it may not be steep enough ( like the Alps are) to really split the elite group that will take lead up the mountain. Basically, it would be simply the top 10 hanging together.

I thought I would ask here to get opinions on this and specifically predictions as to if it will sort out if Lance and others can hang with Contador.

I am hoping Contador does try to attack hard since he will be in Spain.

hocker

It is steep enough to crack Chancellara. A split between Lance and AC is what everybody is waiting to find out. It's a mountain top finish, so there's potential for large gaps. Should be great, can't wait.

Tsuru

No getting around it, this final climb, regardless of it's relative steepness, sucks. Should be awesome!

USAZorro

fify.

At the speed it will take to win the stage, the steepness will matter. I don't foresee 25 guys sprinting in the last 50 meters to be separated only by position.

Hezz

The stage looks brutal to me because of it's length and nearly constant climbing. I believe the peleton will split into at least two main groups by the midpoint of the race. Then it will get further strung out on the last climb. Sastre and Evans may try to attack on the last climb if they are up to it. But Sastre is probably the only one who could get much time on anyone. However, I think that it is more smart to just ride at least three or four mountain stages and let natural attrition even out the field. Evans and Sastre will probably be up into the top 10 after 2-3 mountain stages without doing anything special.

But look, Astana has six guys that can drive the pace of this stage fast enough to bury all but about 6-8 riders. So I don't even think that they need to try and win this stage. Astana will just set a blistering pace that few can follow and then depending on where riders are at in the last 10 kilometers of the race they will either hold it there or send AC,LA and LL up the last part of the climb to further distance themselves from the field.