degnaw

Note that even in Europe, with fuel prices near $8/gal, a good 30-40% or more of commuters still drive to work.

Kind of off topic, but one trend I'm not seeing in the US is in fuel-efficient diesel cars - models sell in Europe (i.e., Ford Fiesta Econetic) that get 65mpg and aren't available here.

Santaria

Unfortunately, people drive for enough "reasons" that there isn't a cost that would deter the average American commuter from using their vehicle over a "liberal concept" like riding a bicycle or using a combination of bus/bike commuting.

Infrastructure is designed to accommodate drivers, urban sprawl and continual expansion increases the overall distance people will travel to work. This, combined with the belief that driving is a constitutional right, handed down by our forefathers in 1776 means that drivers and the industry that benefits from them will work tirelessly to create more expensive options to save a buck in the long-term.

The sad part of the equation is that even electric vehicles will be unavailable for the majority of the population that could benefit from their use. By the time the technology trickles down to the "poor man's used car" price range, the benefits will have been lost.

The reality is that technology is a toy for the rich to wave like a flag showing "we're doing our part" while the poor learn to adapt and except yesteryear's scraps in the form of SUV and large vehicles that still consume too much fuel.

daveizdum

Ha ha ha, awesome. That is the most accurate description I've heard of people's reaction to my daily commute. I run a small business. The other day one of my clients implied that I'm some sort of crazy hippie living off the grid in a kind of Peter Pan fantasy world. Nope, I'm just like everyone else, except that I like exercise.

Drew Eckhardt 

A _lot_ more than $10.

The average cost to operate a car is 54 cents a mile of which only 12 cents is gas at $3 a gallon.

At $10 a gallon and 25 MPG you'd still only be looking at a 50% operating cost increase for the average person.

For the average person who commutes 8000 miles a year (the 16-mile average one way commute with a couple weeks off) it would add $2240 which looks like a lot, but is a screaming bargain compared to housing prices close to jobs in high cost areas.

The last few areas I've worked in had $200,000-$500,000 separating houses close to jobs and those where even I'd want to drive. Adding mortgage payments with property taxes in those situations and subtracting the income tax deduction gives you a cost of $9,000 - $23,000 so choosing to keep a house in the outlying areas could make financial sense past $50 a gallon provided that you bought something more fuel efficient.

WalksOn2Wheels

Good points by everyone. I totally forgot about scooters and mopeds, which is silly of me because I was working for a motorcycle parts distributor when gas was really high and scooters were absolutely booming.

I think the perception by non-cyclists that they have a right to their automobile is probably one of the biggest issues here. People cling to it like it's a foregone conclusion and want to blame everyone but themselves when it becomes overly expensive to operate it as if the government should send them a check every month to help with the gas bill. It never occurs to them that things are expensive, period, and it's their responsibility to decide how to utilize their resources.

And yeah, it would be one thing if I worked in an office with people in their 30's to 50's, but I go to college with a bunch of young, generally healthy people and they freak when I tell them I ride 7 miles one way. They should pick 10 misfits from all walks of life and make them ride a bicycle for a couple of months and take away their car. I'd watch that reality TV show.

wunderkind

If oil price goes up (yay for my commodity stocks, although it tumbled today ), the cost of goods and services will also go up. Please stop being so narrow focused people!

While there are some folks that like to drive their cars to work, there are also tons of folk that take the transit. In this case, these people are also affected. Do you think we are close to transit nirvana?

Do you think some day something like this will make up the regional transit service in your town?



Hey you at the back there! Stop texting and up the cadence!

DVC45

For me its not so much the gas prices, why I don't ride to work. Its the location of my work, the weather and my work hours (I'm in Northern Il.)

If it isn't too cold, too creepy and I don't work til late hours, I would ride to work everyday. Just like I did when I was in Texas.

I'm sure some people have their reasons too.

B. Carfree

I don't think even $10/gal gas will end a very high percentage of the population's driving addiction. Fortunately, the folks on the motorized couches will suffer shorter lifespans than people who seek out exercise. I am heartened by the sight of more and more young trend-setters on bikes. The cultural change from cars to bikes, walking and public transit will be more of a generational change, IMO.

I do think we will get to see if any of our predictions pan out. It looks like the era of cheap oil is indeed coming to an end over the next few years and not many folks will have the coin to convert to coal-powered (electric) motorized couches.

jputnam

Speed of increase may be more important than the ultimate cost of gas. It's the old "boiling a frog" analogy -- if gas prices rise slowly enough, people adjust their driving and shift to more efficient vehicles over time. If gas prices rise quickly enough, people notice the hurt and take steps to significantly reduce their driving.

I'm not sure how high or how quickly we should expect gas prices to rise this year -- the recovery is still weak enough that higher gas prices will be a significant drain. The last time gas passed $4/gallon, people were still freely spending illusory home equity through endless refinances and lines of credit. Today we have real unemployment over 10% and significant underemployment among those who have found new jobs for which they aren't really suited. $4 gas will hurt a lot more today than it did in 2008.

jputnam

I work in an office with people in their 30s to 60s. Out of 600 or so employees in the building, I'm the only year-round bicycle commuter; we pick up two or three more in summer.

I regularly get comments of concern for my safety from car commuters.

Actuaries around the world have a pretty good consensus that bicycle commuting significantly reduces premature all-cause mortality. (That is, don't look just at accident risk, look at all causes of death during working years -- the numbers vary from study to study, but regular bicycle commuters are around 40% less likely to die during their working years than the rest of the population.)

Think that statistic convinces anyone, even at a life insurance company?

If a rare, painful, and expensive medical treatment demonstrated that level of efficacy, people would be all over it. But getting on a bicycle every day....

DJConspicious

I had one of my employees ask me if I was saving up for a car, truth is, I could probably go out and buy a car much better than they can afford, because of my cycle commuting. They don't know how I can stand riding year-round, but the truth is far from the perception. No I'm not saving up for a car, I'm saving up for when things get really rough. I have noticed however that I'm the only one not sick when everyone else is, even though I'm exposed to the worst of the conditions I am always on top.

wunderkind

Sure they are not off <cough> golfing?

rat fink

I ride my bike often ...and I often drive a 1 ton truck. If gas were $10 a gallon, I would still drive that truck and ride my bike often; if gas were $0.50 a gallon I would still drive that truck and ride my bike often. I typically drive something more economical, and I commute on bikes often, but for many people a car/truck/SUV/van is the right tool for the job.

rykard

Diesel is around £1.30/Litre here in the UK Petrol £1.26 , i am now sorting out my bikes to get them ready to start commuting again. Ours cars only do around 20 mpg around town, and we aren't able to change yet without losing money.. unfortunately in the UK the public transport system is a joke and is not a viable alternatove...

jeffpoulin

In Switzerland, gas is currently 1.80CHF/liter which is $7.20/gallon. We still have traffic jams every day and the number of cars on the roads is increasing. In 2008, it briefly topped $10/gallon. At that price, I think people noticed but the reduction in cars on the road was very slight and only temporary. If 500 million Europeans can get used to high gas prices without switching to alternative modes of transportation, I imagine it's not going to be so easy in the U.S. either. $5/gallon is probably too low. $10 might be too low too. What might work is actual gas shortages like in the 70s. If people are unable to buy gas at any price, they'll have to change.

tarwheel 

It didn't make much difference around here the last time gas prices hit $4/gallon. I didn't notice any more bike commuters, however, more people at work start carpooling. Most people have the perception that cycling is incredibly dangerous and they will get run over trying to ride on the streets. We don't have many bike paths or lanes around here, so that rules out cycling for most people.

StanSeven

My job keeps me from commuting. I'm in consulting and have apppointments all over the area evey day. I need my car to get around. Plus I need to wear a suit and tie.

But the price of gas has no bearing on my desire to commute. Rather it's the enjoyment of riding, the good feeling I get from the exercise and just going fast, and the reduction of stress as well as it's just fun.

chipcom 

I've lived as far as 60 miles from work. While doing the full boat every day is unreasonable for many, one can still reduce the amount of gasoline they use by doing a multi-modal commute - either driving part way and riding the rest, or splitting between riding and mass transit. The only obstacle if one REALLY wants to make a change, is themselves.

cyccommute 

$4/gal seemed to be the ouch point here. However, I saw a significant drop-off in the number of bicyclists when the price went back down. I haven't seen a significant increase in ridership now but our gas is currently much lower than the rest of the nation and it's winter. People will pay a lot for warmth and comfort.

genec

The thing is mass transit may not accommodate you. I did some consulting a couple years ago to a company about 40 miles away... the drive took about an hour either way with traffic. I kept trying to figure out how to do the bike/mass transit thing. It turned out that there were no buses that went to the north county from the south county, so right away there was a gap in my transit picture.

I tried the train... which in reality wasn't a bad ride at all, but due to a very limited schedule, would not work either. The last train south (the direction I needed to go to get home) left the station at 5:30, which meant I had to get there in time to make the train... but the earliest train north arrived at 8:30... thus leaving me just enough time to do a full work day, but not enough time to include the trip to and from the station.

Having the last train leave at 5:30 is just not realistic for full time full day workers... who apparently the train company did not consider. The schedule worked just fine for part time day workers such as the maids and gardeners from the south.

chipcom 

I have had the same problems, which is why I also mentioned the car/bike split (which if you remember, was what I was doing when I first joined BF when my commute was 45mi each way ) Driving 10/20/30 miles instead of 40/50/60 miles still eats less fuel...and you get to work some exercise into your day to boot.

skijor

Same here on all accounts. It was the speed with which the price initially went from $2.75-ish to just over $4. Whether consciously or not, people had adjusted to the ~$3 mark. But over $4 will still have enough shock-value to get the infrequent cyclists back on the horse.

pallen

I dont know that its a "right" thing, but I think most people see their automobile as "freedom". They can jump in the car and run an errand at lunch, or swing by a store on the way home, or go home early, come in late, etc... Public transit and even bike commuting feels like "dependency". You have to arrange you day by the bus schedule, impromptu errands at lunch are often impossible on a bike, carpooling involves coordination with others in your group, etc... I kind of get that, but at some point you have to look at what that is costing you, and evaluate how much you actually enjoy sitting in traffic day after day. For me it took experiencing real freedom when we lived in Prague. Not owning a car, yet still being able to walk half a block and catch a tram that comes by every 10 minutes and getting around town faster than driving via a well-run public transit system was a real eye-opener to what a different infrastructural makes possible.

chipcom 

Excellent point...it's not the vehicle that limits one's freedom, it's the sprawl and the car-centric culture that created it.

HardyWeinberg

I saw people who are not bike-fans cycling when gas did not look like it would fall below $4, but they are all back in their cages now (well, they were this summer even before winter came on)