Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?
 

I just bought my first tri bike, I am a swimmer not a biker :-) so please bare with me. When choosing and buying my first bike many factors came into consideration, most of them related to fitting and having a reliable bike shop available in the area, of course price was also a determinant factor.

I chose Cervelo, the P2 appeared to fit the bill, however I knew Cervelo had two frames on 2014, my concern was to get the newer frame, and I was happy to get the one with the Dura Ace shifter, now I realized that Cervelo also had a 11 speed model with the new frame and I ended up getting the one with the Shimano 10 Speed components.

My question is how fast the 10 speed will become obsolete in terms of availability of higher end parts ( for 105 and up)?
Are the newer aero wheels backward compatible? Is there any way I could get a pair that will work with a 11 speed drive train (assuming I will upgrade to 11 speed in the next 5 years). I am just a little annoyed, I thought that I would be future proof buying a Cervelo and I neglected the 11 speed upgrade, I thought they were just running parallel, I did not know 11 was actually replacing 10.

Thanks!
Edward

Congratulations on the new bike.

10 speed obsolescence - hard to say, but I have 10 speed Campagnolo on my road bike which also went 11 speed a number of years ago and have no issues buying new parts still. My TT bike is running 10 speed Shimano Dura ace and have had no trouble buying Shimano 10 speed parts either...

11 speed wheels - can run 10 speed cassettes just with an extra spacer behind the cassette. Won't work the other way around without some fiddling i.e machining the freehub, using a 11 speed cassette with one cog removed or using a Campagnolo freehub wheel with their 11 speed cassette which I've heard this will run fine on Shimano 11 speed.

i'd be inclined to say not too soon at all. my feeling is that 11 speeds won't offer much in the way of additional benefit in terms of gear range. more so, though, is that in order to accommodate an 11 speed cassette, the cogs have to be spaced closer together, which means the chain has to be thinner to fit between. all the same issues when 10 speed transmission came along to replace 9 speed trannies. i wouldn't go 11-speed just because it's there and new. just my 2 cents.

Just bumping this thread up again, just wondering will it be hard to find parts especially cassettes down the road? Not too keen on going 11 speed.

I would presume Sora and some Tiagra 10 speed stuff will remain for a while. Especially Sora. And modern Sora 10spd is likely better than old school 105 10 speed stuff at this point.

So likely still good.

Also, still making rim brake top of line road and TT bikes. So that's not totally dead yet either. Isn't Ineos on rim brake Dogmas still?

Options decline over time, but I don't see 10-speed cassettes actually disappearing anytime soon.

It's still possible to buy new 5-speed freewheels...