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-   -   Addiction 2022.2 (https://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=1249389)

ls01 05-03-22 03:55 PM

It's been a year since I canceled selling my house and moved back in. I still get calls from desperate real-estate agents trying to get me to sell. The last one guaranteed me 300k. 2 weeks ago. The only people winning in this real-estate bullshirt are the agents and the tax collectors. This is going to end in another bubble.

big john 05-03-22 04:10 PM


Originally Posted by datlas (Post 22493843)
The market is like that here too. A woman I know told me she just bought a house. How did she get it? Offered 100k over (already market-inflated) asking price and waived home inspection.

#sellersmarket

My friend sold his house a couple weeks back, he's moving to be close to the grandkids. He asked the realtor how much to list it for and was told $1.1 million. My friend was shocked, he didn't think it would be that high but people bid against each other and it sold the same week for just under $1.2 million.

genejockey 05-03-22 04:13 PM


Originally Posted by ls01 (Post 22494004)
It's been a year since I canceled selling my house and moved back in. I still get calls from desperate real-estate agents trying to get me to sell. The last one guaranteed me 300k. 2 weeks ago. The only people winning in this real-estate bullshirt are the agents and the tax collectors. This is going to end in another bubble.

Maybe, maybe not. This housing price inflation seems to be driven by limited housing stock, and limited housing starts. We've been building less than we need since 2008, and the Millennials are starting to want houses.

genejockey 05-03-22 04:18 PM


Originally Posted by big john (Post 22494023)
My friend sold his house a couple weeks back, he's moving to be close to the grandkids. He asked the realtor how much to list it for and was told $1.1 million. My friend was shocked, he didn't think it would be that high but people bid against each other and it sold the same week for just under $1.2 million.

There was a woman down the street, long time resident, died recently. Her house was a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, probably about 1400 sq.ft. Lot less than 1/4 acre. Her house sold for $1.8 Million.

Mojo31 05-03-22 04:28 PM


Originally Posted by genejockey (Post 22494024)
Maybe, maybe not. This housing price inflation seems to be driven by limited housing stock, and limited housing starts. We've been building less than we need since 2008, and the Millennials are starting to want houses.

No shortage of housing construction around us. A friend of mine just developed a 900 acre neighborhood with 1600 planned houses. We drove through it a few weeks ago, and there were at least 50 houses under construction. No shortage around here!

Mojo31 05-03-22 04:30 PM

In other news, NPAOTH:

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...212b3104cd.jpg

And, knowing how much VV likes old cars and boats, I thought one of these would be a good fit for him -

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...e390aed450.jpg

Bah Humbug 05-03-22 04:45 PM


Originally Posted by genejockey (Post 22494024)
Maybe, maybe not. This housing price inflation seems to be driven by limited housing stock, and limited housing starts. We've been building less than we need since 2008, and the Millennials are starting to want houses.

As a matter of fact, many of us are well into our house-buying (remember, Millennials are now up to 42 years old).

Also, in many places, the psycho house inflation is due to actual fundamental reasons. In Austin, high-paying jobs just keep coming here (Apple, Arm, AMD, Tesla, and more just keep coming). Paying for the house is part of getting a much bigger paycheck in many cases. It's different from the speculative prices in Florida condos, for example.

"This time it's different" are famous last words, of course, but so are "this is just like that other time I remember".

genejockey 05-03-22 05:02 PM


Originally Posted by Bah Humbug (Post 22494065)
As a matter of fact, many of us are well into our house-buying (remember, Millennials are now up to 42 years old).

Also, in many places, the psycho house inflation is due to actual fundamental reasons. In Austin, high-paying jobs just keep coming here (Apple, Arm, AMD, Tesla, and more just keep coming). Paying for the house is part of getting a much bigger paycheck in many cases. It's different from the speculative prices in Florida condos, for example.

"This time it's different" are famous last words, of course, but so are "this is just like that other time I remember".

When you start hearing ads like there used to be in 2007, offering mortgages with no income verification, you'll know it's time to pull out. But right now, we're way below the housing/population ratio where we were well BEFORE the last bubble started.

ls01 05-03-22 05:07 PM


Originally Posted by genejockey (Post 22494089)
When you start hearing ads like there used to be in 2007, offering mortgages with no income verification, you'll know it's time to pull out. But right now, we're way below the housing:population ratio where we were well BEFORE the last bubble started.

true but we didn't have inflation like we have now either.

genejockey 05-03-22 05:10 PM

The other thing is, yes, Millennials will have started buying houses some time ago, but there's still a LOT of them in line behind you.

ls01 05-03-22 05:12 PM


Originally Posted by genejockey (Post 22494089)
When you start hearing ads like there used to be in 2007, offering mortgages with no income verification, you'll know it's time to pull out. But right now, we're way below the housing:population ratio where we were well BEFORE the last bubble started.

They are already doing crazy stuff like overbiding on properties, above and beyond compares. That wasnt happening last time either. But the gas prices are higher than they were then and predictions are they will go higher yet. Thats what started the last one. Same play...same play book.

genejockey 05-03-22 05:13 PM


Originally Posted by ls01 (Post 22494093)
true but we didn't have inflation like we have now either.

True, but I'm curious what effect you think it's having. But remember that housing cost inflation is literally part of the calculation of inflation rate, so it's simultaneously a cause and an effect.

genejockey 05-03-22 05:19 PM


Originally Posted by ls01 (Post 22494100)
They are already doing crazy stuff like overbiding on properties, above and beyond compares. That wasnt happening last time either. But the gas prices are higher than they were then and predictions are they will go higher yet. Thats what started the last one. Same play...same play book.

How do you figure that?

The biggest problem last time was money flowing into Mortgage Backed Securities as an investment, which created an ever-increasing demand for mortgages (and ever decreasing standards for them), which flooded the housing market with apparently free money, which caused prices to shoot up. I don't know that this is what's happening now.

ls01 05-03-22 05:53 PM


Originally Posted by genejockey (Post 22494111)
How do you figure that?

The biggest problem last time was money flowing into Mortgage Backed Securities as an investment, which created an ever-increasing demand for mortgages (and ever decreasing standards for them), which flooded the housing market with apparently free money, which caused prices to shoot up. I don't know that this is what's happening now.

It's the same but different. People paying more than they should for properties mortgaged in an unstable economy. The rates were high and variable, but values were stable this time it's the opposite. Rates are low (but climbing) and the values are inflated. It's trickling down to the bottom, lower end of the market now and when inflation kills the economy and unemoyment soars. It will rip upwards just like last time.

big john 05-03-22 05:57 PM


Originally Posted by genejockey (Post 22494032)
There was a woman down the street, long time resident, died recently. Her house was a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, probably about 1400 sq.ft. Lot less than 1/4 acre. Her house sold for $1.8 Million.

That's nuts.

bampilot06 05-03-22 06:33 PM

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...5ed19e396.jpeg
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...38a3937e0.jpeg
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...3b97856c9.jpeg

bampilot06 05-03-22 06:55 PM

I was only on the cap trail momentarily today but I witnessed something that really pissed me off. The guy on a mountain bike was “walking” his dog with no leash. How is he suppose to have any control over his animal while he is on a bike.

Oh and a bird watcher set up camp in the middle of the path and was trying to take pictures. Not sure why he had to stop in the middle of the path and not the side.

I need to go see some anger management.

MoAlpha 05-03-22 06:57 PM

This is a long and interesting read about a fake Strava KOM, which leads to a fake former pro cyclist and from there to layer after layer of strangeness.

https://cyclingtips.com/2022/04/expo...e-pro-cyclist/

Also occurred to me that I met the guy once. Don’t look for that Wikipedia link.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...bd137bb41.jpeg

genejockey 05-03-22 07:16 PM


Originally Posted by ls01 (Post 22494155)
It's the same but different. People paying more than they should for properties mortgaged in an unstable economy. The rates were high and variable, but values were stable this time it's the opposite. Rates are low (but climbing) and the values are inflated. It's trickling down to the bottom, lower end of the market now and when inflation kills the economy and unemoyment soars. It will rip upwards just like last time.

Except last time the collapse of the housing market killed the economy and caused unemployment to soar, not the other way 'round. Also, rates were high-ER and stable, and values soared in the last bubble - hence 'bubble'.

genejockey 05-03-22 07:22 PM


Originally Posted by bampilot06 (Post 22494216)
I was only on the cap trail momentarily today but I witnessed something that really pissed me off. The guy on a mountain bike was “walking” his dog with no leash. How is he suppose to have any control over his animal while he is on a bike.

Oh and a bird watcher set up camp in the middle of the path and was trying to take pictures. Not sure why he had to stop in the middle of the path and not the side.

I need to go see some anger management.

Nothing like spending time in a natural setting to calm the mind, eh? :roflmao2:

Off leash dogs always piss me off. RARELY are they under actual voice control, or they wouldn't come charging up to my dog while their owners fruitlessly call their names. I mean, not only do I not know their dog - whom I can see they aren't controlling - but they don't know mine. Rango could be a bloodthirsty muttkiller, for all they know. He's NOT, but they don't know that!

seedsbelize2 05-03-22 07:23 PM


Originally Posted by datlas (Post 22493843)
The market is like that here too. A woman I know told me she just bought a house. How did she get it? Offered 100k over (already market-inflated) asking price and waived home inspection.

#sellersmarket

Waived home inspection. Ouch!

LesterOfPuppets 05-03-22 07:32 PM

6 years ago today, I rode out to Superior, WY.

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/6P...-no?authuser=0

https://scontent.fphx1-2.fna.fbcdn.n...YQ&oe=6297A433

Mojo31 05-03-22 07:42 PM


Originally Posted by MoAlpha (Post 22494219)
This is a long and interesting read about a fake Strava KOM, which leads to a fake former pro cyclist and from there to layer after layer of strangeness.

https://cyclingtips.com/2022/04/expo...e-pro-cyclist/

Also occurred to me that I met the guy once. Don’t look for that Wikipedia link.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...bd137bb41.jpeg

What a story!

Velo Vol 05-03-22 07:45 PM

Whew, only have three band rehearsals between concerts. The pressure is on!

Velo Vol 05-03-22 07:46 PM


Originally Posted by LesterOfPuppets (Post 22494262)
6 years ago today, I rode out to Superior, WY.

Why bother? There's literally nothing there.

LesterOfPuppets 05-03-22 07:54 PM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 22494275)
Why bother? There's literally nothing there.

212 people may disagree with you there :)
#toddlingtown

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...1147da3ae8.png

Velo Vol 05-03-22 07:55 PM


Originally Posted by LesterOfPuppets (Post 22494262)

Same vibe:

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...a5caf1901d.png

LesterOfPuppets 05-03-22 08:00 PM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 22494288)



rjones28 05-03-22 08:14 PM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 22494275)
Why bother? There's literally nothing there.

Incorrect.

big john 05-03-22 08:58 PM


Originally Posted by rjones28 (Post 22494310)
Incorrect.

It's like what Indy said, you don't hear any man made sounds. One of the great things about going off road, the quiet.


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