Tour de France Contenders
 

Who takes the yellow?

methinx tadej has the most raw talent, primoz has the most versatility and carapaz is the most calculating. bernal reestablished his bonafides recently.
these four guys will be in the mix for all the gt's the next five years with the occasional encroachment of a yatesie or buchmann, et al, here and there
with abandons, crash outs and the like.

My vote is for Pogacar, but I'll be cheering for Roglic (mainly because I think he is running out of chances).

My vote is for Carapaz, he's looking great. Dark horse: Porte - there's two TTs this year and three mountains might not factor in as much. They seem to be setting everything up for Alaphillipe though ...

Remco?

possibly...the giro was pretty ambitious for his first race back but he's set the bar pretty high in the short
time since he burst onto the scene. would love to see him do this year's vuelta to see how he handles
a gt with adequate time/prep. not discounting remco potentially being included with tadej, primoz, et al
because his talent is off the charts. he may just be better suited for one-days and 3-8 day tours vs the
gt's but we'll see. no shame in that if that's the case. and then there are those annoying team/sponsor(s) needs/goals...

I'm going with Carapaz. He looks great and he's got the strongest team behind him. Though I do wonder if Ineos will subjugate him and Porte to support Thomas.

^thinking carapaz and bernal are driving the sur america ineos train currently and the crash bros aka (gthomas and richie) are just checking tickets at this point.
if ineos wants to use carapaz (again) to support thomas, bernal, porte, yatesie, tgh or anyone i may or may not have forgotten, their rivals will be breathing a
sigh of relief. they'd be dumber than i thought...and i know dumb.

A couple of years ago we vacationed in Ecuador. those first nights in Quito (elevation 9400') adjusting to the altitude was something else. At first, it's even hard to sleep because you can't get enough oxygen at normal sleeping respiration rates. And Quito is in a deep valley! Everything else in the area is much higher.

And I thought, "never mind Colombia - people born here would make champion racers. Why aren't there any Ecuadorians on top of the pro tour?"


and the next year, Carapaz surfaced at the Giro.

13 votes in the poll thus far. That's maybe a little more than the number of regular posters in this subforum in non TdF times. I imagine we'll see more people joining in next week.

Chris Horner has some interesting things to say about the Ineos selections. I agree that the absence of Rohan Denis is surprising.

They have too many "leaders" (4!) and not enough power in their domestique corps. last year it was J-V that drove the train through much of the race, and Ineos suffered for it. Unless some of their "leaders" are going to put time on the front early in the stages, I don't see how Ineos will be able to protect their real GC favorites.

I guess they are saving Adam Yates for the Vuelta.

I'm hopeful Alaphillipe will get the jersey, he's a fun racer to watch, especially when he's trying to hang on to it. But he can't keep it to the end, just don't think he has it in him.

I think it's Pogacar's to lose, but anyone's Grand Tour ambitions can be ruined by a bad day in the crosswinds (excepting J-V underestimating and letting him hang around last year, which will never happen again) or worse.

Ineos has more bullets, what they lack in being top-heavy can be dealt with if they show themselves able to surf other trains the way Pogacar did with practically no support. Then when/if other teams' leaders falter, they'll have the most options to cash in, just as long as they don't Movistar it. Thomas has already shown that he's willing to help a teammate even as the defending champ, Porte has been openly realistic that his ambitions will more than likely face bizarre misfortune, leaving Carapaz who may be weakest in the TT and be a non-threat anyway.

Roglic won't have Dumoulin or a peaking van Aert, I know he'll have the hunger and drive but I don't know that he can beat Pogacar without everything going right /wrong for Pogacar (like having to protect a teammate's GC, another thing that won't be happening at the TdF).

we may just get treated to another epic tdf mano a mano battle royal between roglic and pogacar. both excel in the tt's, when the road turns up and in classics-styled scenarios.
don't think carapaz is as versatile but he's pretty close (his tt's aren't as bad as you would think) and his team keeps him in the conversation. will be interesting to see how ineos
plays things this go round. they've had a semi-surprising amount of success with stage wins (and what comes with it) in the last year taking the initiative on breakaways and forcing the issue vs their
traditional defensive, high pace so no one attacks style. semi-surprising in the fact that they actually adopted a more aggressive posture...not semi-surprising in the fact that they have some of the
most talented riders in the peloton currently within their ranks. will be interesting to see if they throw out thomas, richie, tgh, castroviejo, etc on individual flyers on multiple stages
vs keeping them all in the fold every day. bora, bahrain, dqs, astana and ef are other teams that could slide a rider into a podium place if everything goes well.

Pogacar has had fantastic results this season for sure.

I'm curious about Bahrain - are they going to try for a GC result with Poels and the green jersey with Colbrelli? Maybe stage wins first then see how Poels does in GC? Landa must be targeting the Vuelta huh? Mohoric is back so I'm hoping to see him recovered from that Giro horror crash.

Rigo will place on the podium
Oh Rigo, always quiet. Love the sandbagging by Vaughters et al ... "Oh gee that was a surprise ... !!" :lol: Not a surprise at all imo. Sure not much racing done, but he's been getting steadily better even with hits nasty crash in Vuelta ('19 or '20?). Rigo has been placing very high in the TTs compared to his GC counter parts.

I voted Pogacar but I'm mentally walking that back with the 58ish km of flattish TT.

No love for G here in the poll? I guess his TdS results didn't scream for it but I wouldn't be surprised to see him up a bit. It will be interesting to watch the intra-Ineos battles and see where Pogacar & Carapaz can steal the time to bleed a bit to the Roglics, Urans, and maybe Thomas & Porte on those two stages plus whatever other bizarre splits show up for the GC bunch on the non-mountain days.

I would not be surprised to see Tadej in a bit of a UAE hole after the first week from cross-winds or something that they won't be as on top of as Ineos, J-V, DQS, etc.

Can we also have a poll about the proper, if anglicized, way to pronounce "Pogacar"?

Poe got cha??

Almost but there's still a soft "r" at the end.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._Slovenian.ogg

What 4. Is Bernal in it? I didn't look, but I thought not.

bernal not in the tdf this year but i was referencing he, carapaz, roglic and pogacar in reference to all three grand tours upcoming in the next handful of years,
not just the one that seems to get the most attention.

I did not know that about Bernal until just now. I hope he can find relief for his back problems.

Primoz for the win.

I always like to guess who the highest placing USA rider will be and how far out of the top ten they will place.

Sepp Cuss was very good last year in the second half. Save for two stages, he was as good as anyone from the mid point on. Cuss will place in the low 20's

Bernal won the Giro this year and he looked as good as ever, until the 3rd week, but even then, he was right up there. I'm sure he is skipping the TdF and will be riding the Vuelta for the win. I'll guess he still has some back issues, but they are not effecting his cycling as much as they were. As a back pain sufferer, I get it. I had my spine fused in 2007 and it still gives me some random issued here and there.

That is an interesting equation. Right now all the USA riders are there to sacrifice for their GC guy. It would not be unusual for them to even hold back in an ITT to help another day.
But...teams know having a USA guy do well brings up eye-balls in the USA at least (which buys things) and allowing them to fly free a few stages may help their sponsors more than helping the GC guys.

I expect Brandon will not be holding back in the ITT and I expect Sepp will be allowed to fly up a mountain stage. Rating the USA riders against each other works better when their job isn't about getting their GC guy to place better.

You touched on why I find the Tour so fascinating. There are so many moving pieces that there's always something of interest other than the GC. There's still so much I don't know and understand too.

There are a ton of variables as-it-is in standard tour. I like variables, but not randomness. To me variable are things you plan for and know about.

I also find it interesting to read of riders using the TdF for training for the Olympics with others might sacrifice Olympic performance to help their GC guy. Point is Tokyo also affects this tour.