Bike Shortages to Continue through 2021?
 

Certainly looks that way, according to an Australian industry analyst. Obviously he's writing about the current market in Oceania--NZ and Oz--but his obersvatiosn seem to hold true for other markets as well, in that bike supply is fairly centralized on East Asia, Taiwan and the Mainland.

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/opin...l#.YApZ1lT7SUk

Shimano are currently underwater and it's looking increasingly unlikely that we'll see much aftermarket product in secondary markets, like Korea, where I'm based. Thankfully I'm doing okay for chains and cassettes--I have sufficient disposables to last me a while, but it's probably going to be tough going finding replacement parts, not to mention new bikes, for a good year or so more.

God I hope not..... I REALLY wanted to get an Orbea Orca this year, but the model year is WAY sold out. My next option would be to grab one in the fall if they are available.

The shortages run deep I am afraid. It's going to take a while to build inventories back.

In Cambodia there are plenty of bikes, and common spare parts.

Most of the popular model year 2021 bikes are completely sold out and will not be available until 2022. This seems to be the case for nearly all manufacturers and from lower priced entry level bikes through higher priced bikes. Forget about popular categories like gravel bikes or comfort hybrids and anything priced under $1,000, these bikes will be very difficult to find as new bikes in 2021.

Was hoping for a new Sirrus or Diverge but I think I'll just fix the ole Fuji up some more and ride the heck out of it. This delay may actually help me as I'm starting to ride more again and will have more time to figure out what would be best when I do pull the trigger on a new bike.

I ordered a Scott scale 925 in August of 2020 it finely came in the first week of January 2021. 5 month wait time.

I am happy that I was able to get my new Bianchi in 2020 as one of the last 2020s..... The 2021s keep being bumped back from Sept./October 2020 to January 2021 to April 2021, depending on model. Even that is likely to change too. They changed the graphics on the Via Nirone model for 2021 and it is not an improvement so I am beyond thrilled that mine is not a 2021.

Stopped at the Trek store to check out a commuter bike I hoped to purchase for my daughter’s April birthday. It can be done, I just need to wait until April 2022. The inventory looked like I missed the first days of the going out of business sale. There is no inventory at least at that Trek store.

Hope the bike shops can make it through OK. I have a local one I haven't used yet that gets good reviews and it's close. It would suck if they close. I'm going to have them do my upgrades/changes and try to give them as much business as I can, hopefully buy a bike from them later too. I already bought the parts a while ago though thinking I'd tackle it but I'll leave it to the pros and pay them to do it right.

That's my main concern, too. I have a great relationship with one of my LBS and I'm in there a few times a week. They have zero inventory and parts are scarce. Luckily for them, they have been doing a lot of repairs, so that's been keeping them afloat. The problem they are facing now is the availability of parts to fix bikes they haven't gotten to yet. I bought 2 new bikes late last year and had to wait a considerable time for them. I'm glad I put my name down for them and waited.
For those wanting a new bicycle this year, get on the list now and maybe you will have one by summer or fall.

FWIW, I believe most bike shops make most of their profits on service and accessories rather than selling new bikes. Parts may become an issue, but the few times I've been in an LBS the last six months or so, the mechanics have been busy. (And they did have the parts I was looking for, or got one within a week!)

Ergo, I'm not too worried about bike shops in my town going out of business.

I walked into my a local bike shop ready to spend $6k on a new bike last week. This is one of the largest shops in the midwest and a shop well known for stocking a lot of very high end bikes. They are also famous for being able to get basically anything including limited edition bikes and esoteric components. It's the rare kind shop where selling a $6k bike likely happens multiple times a day and they're used to selling and servicing much more top end stuff. I knew chances were slim I'd be able to get a bike, but if any place could help me it would be this place.

I told them what I wanted and unsurprisingly they just scoffed at me. The employee showed me a list of 3,000 orders for the particular major brand I was interested in that they were waiting to fill and told me that they'd "be lucky to get 10% of these bikes". He also told me they haven't taken a "custom order" (which I assume means a bike they order specifically for a customer) in six months. He wouldn't even discuss taking my order despite me wanted to drop $6k right there. I initially though the guy was being rude, but in retrospect I appreciate the honesty and unwillingness to waste my time.

I think it's unlikely many people will be able to get a specific new "enthusiast" bike the shop doesn't have in stock until 2022. Direct brands like Canyon, YT and Commencal are all equally sold out and have been for months. I predict 2023 is going to be the year to buy a bike as used pandemic-bought bikes will flood the market.

Same situation for myself and my LBS. I wanted a second seatpost, and he can't yet get the one I want (27.2 mm, 15 degrees offset). Unbelievable! He couldn't even find for me platform pedals in red -finally got them on Ebay.

Best regards

I can tell you first hand, this is a great time to sell an old bike sitting around gathering dust.

I called my LBS to yesterday to check on my FS mtn bike I ordered at the end of July. Still showing a Feb-Apr delivery but I'll be surprised if it gets here by then. He said bikes were trickling in one or two per week but last week they got zero. They have over 500 bikes on backorder and this is a small shop in a small town. He expects it to be as least 2022 before things start returning to normal as it stands now.

It's crazy right now. Although we all know why, it's just really strange searching for a particular bike and not being able to find it available anywhere. Even the manufacturer's websites seem to show everything as unavailable. I just wonder how many have really cut back on the manufacturing process and how much is dependent on logistics.

In reality, most people on a forum like this already have plenty of usable bikes, and it won't hurt us to just keep riding 'em.

Yup, I’m of the same mind. I’m fixed pretty good for a long time to come. And even if I wasn’t sitting on a pretty good stash I’ve got twenty plus bikes to rotate through.
They all called us crazy too muahahahahahaha!

All this doom and gloom has me glad I decided to upgrade and save a while for my next bike. Granted, I am still waiting on the crankset. Apparently 105 in silver is pretty low-priority on the production schedule. But the shop I am going to choose for my next frame currently has a 14 month lead time for a frame build.

Went into a Trek store near me this week and they are selling many used bicycles. They had some new kids bicycles and that was about it for new.

Oh wow another thread on shortages...Hoo boy didn't see that coming.

We will have shortages, we will have issues until we can deal with COVID-19 and truly all take it seriously. We are in a bike boom, it has been that way since last year. Nothing has changed, nothing is new and we won't be done with this for a year or two and maybe longer.

If you are desperate for a bike, get your order in RIGHT NOW (or as soon as your local shop opens) seriously stop waiting and just order the dang thing by the time you say "I think I wanna order that bike" it is already sold months ago if not well before that. If you need a bike with a little more speed or at least better ability to track it you might consider buying a custom bike from one of the many many many builders in the U.S. who are still building and making some awesome stuff. Supporting local businesses (or semi-local) is always a good thing but especially important now and what better way to do that as a cyclist then order a kickass bike that is made in 'Merica to your specs.

And if you don't need the bike, then relax and ride one you have. If you have been planning a major upgrade, it might need to hold off a bit or if something like wheels plenty of great manufacturers and builders in the U.S. Or maybe take some money and donate it to those in need or put it away in savings and upgrade even more or have some extra money for a rainy day.

The landfill of bicycles have a great probability in becoming that "new" bicycle inventory imo.
inspect your new purchases is all I will say

Look on the bright side, if you already have a bike, then you have a bike!
The shortage is preventing you spending more money on something you may not critically need!

Thats how im looking at it anyway. Got a bike last May, a flat bar gravel bike and it was the last one in stock in the city, that sounds ridiculous, but i assure you I searched.
A year of using it to see the city differently and just improve my fitness and i realized i probably would be more comfortable on something a bit lighter with drop bars.
I narrowed it down to 6 bikes and there is not a hope of me getting any of them this side of 2022. No point in stewing over it or even being disappointed, its an opportunity to get better and learn.

Started with something simple and cheap, new tires and they have already made a world of difference.
Ive added some formality around my training which makes it more regular and easier to see progress and improve.
At the end of the day, the bike is far from the limiting factor, its the engine, me! I can work on me very affordably and perhaps when i revisit the situation again next year ill realize I want something very different and have saved myself a nice little sum!

I would rather imagine that the bicycle companies would realize that now is time to make hay and I suspect we are going to wake up one morning soon, probably mid-summer, and there will be bikes galore. Once the gyms start to open back up, and they will, that will be the end of the bike boom. At the end of the day not many of us "need" a bike, fewer yet need a $6000 bike. Overall, a luxury item.

At the lower end of the spectrum, try to imagine the pressure the big box retailers are putting on their suppliers. That kind of pressure will not last a whole lot longer. There are other ways to spend our free time, again gyms, spectator sports, video games and bars.