2023 models and supply chain issues?
 

To any of you working in the industry whether it be a bike shop or distributor... what is the word regarding the quantities of 2023 models heading your way? Should I expect the local shops to have a bigger collection to pick from than what was available last year?

I have a friend who bought (paid in full) a Trek Checkpoint in Oct 2021 from a local bike shop, and still doesn't have it. It was originally supposed to arrive in Feb. Then April. Then...

I wonder what model year it will be when it does finally arrive?

Stuff is still coming in sporadically. Overall, it's improving but far from normal. Complete bikes seem to be arriving with more regularity; parts are not.

The supply chain will probably not be back to whatever the new normal is till 2024 maybe even 2025 maybe even later. Bikes are trickling in slowly, they are coming and it certainly feels like things are getting at least an iota or two better but in the end the delays are still abound all over the world. I think shipping is going to remain the biggest challenge.

You should still get an order in if you want a bike or parts even if it might be a wait. Lock down that bike so you aren't waiting even longer as others put in their orders before you.

I dont work at a shop, thought I work closely with a shop due to a non-profit I help run. That shop is a Trek/Giant dealer and has 3 locations in our metro, but they added 3 more brands back in the late fall of '21 due to lack of inventory. Thru the winter, they have been fully stocked with road, gravel, hybrid, MTB, and ebikes. All price points and sizes. They have a bunch of Trek and Giant options again too.
Its just 1 data point, but if all I ever knew about the bike supply chain was that store, I would think bikes are overflowing everywhere.

Interesting. I wonder if they can get parts. A couple of weeks ago when I checked QBP and JBI for drivetrain and brake stuff, there were just pages of zeros. I ended up sourcing my parts through CompetitiveCyclist and a guy on PinkBike who builds custom wheels.

My local Cannondale dealer has very few bikes on the floor. They tell me they don't expect more anytime soon.

They always have 3 guys working on bikes each time I am in their main store, so I assume they are getting parts. Maybe they are only taking repairs that are serviceable given current inventory? So they arent taking bikes that want GRX Silver groupsets installed, but are taking bikes that need a new 8sp chain and cassette, for example. <--total hypothetical. Not really sure what is or isnt in stock since I dont work there. I do see a lot of accessories and softgoods that are missing or have been replaced by less impressive alternatives. The shop used to carry a lot of Giro helmets and now carry 2 models. Meanwhile, they have expanded the Lazer and Bontrager offerings(this may be an intentional decision and not a supply based decision).

I work super part-time at a local shop, and we are able to do repairs, but sometimes we have to make the old stuff work until new parts come in. We've also had customers source parts themselves that we install for them -- with no hurt feelings on the shop's part -- and once or twice we've even purchased parts at full retail just to get a bike finished. We don't make profit on those parts, obviously, but it keeps the customers happy and we still get the labor fee. So far, most people have been understanding when we've had to make substitutions based on availability -- thank you, Micro Shift cassettes -- but it's not the way anyone wants to be doing things. C'est la vie.

Speaking of Microshift...the teen mentorship program I help run gets bikes from the shop I mentioned. They donate new basic hybrids to each new rider. Typically they are Trek FX1, so the base level. Last year we got FX1 disc since that is all they could source. This year we got Giant Escape 3 Comfort bikes and wow are they total junk. They are 3x7 freewheel, just like the FX1, but they use cheap threaded stems and some have Microshift drivetrains that are even cheaper than the usual Shimano Tourney components we see. The Microshift shifters on these bikes are filled with soft plastic innards and no surprise- multiple shifters have basically exploded inside the outer case. The soft plastic shifting parts didnt even last 3 weeks on one of the bikes.

I have used half a dozen Microshift STI compatible road shifters and bar end shifters- loved em. My wife's old Trek 950 has Microshift Advent 1x and it is really great for the cost.
These lowest end components on the Giants though?...oof. Its a rare day when I long for Tourney.
But in the end- we are gifted these bikes and wouldnt be able to run the program without the shop's generosity. I am really looking forward to more inventory availability next year though!

Yeah, Microshift is sort of a mixed bag. They make an 11-speed thumb-shifter that is pretty awesome, but their plastic trigger shifters are hot garbage. Their 10- and 11-speed cassettes have been fine, as have the 11-speed Sun Race ones. I see a lot of potential for Microshift going forward, but I'll always consider Shimano and Sram to be built to a higher standard.

Bike dealers are given a status with the bike suppliers, much like car dealers, motorcycle dealers, hardware stores, etc. The dealers that are given a "top tier" status get preference in available inventory and new model access. Typically a three store chain will be a top tier dealer and will have access to more inventory sooner than the lower tiers. Our shop went from a tier one status to a tier two status and it made a very noticeable difference in what was available and when it was available.

I ordered a new road bike in October 2021 also, estimated arrival was December 2021, then Feb 2022, then March 2022, then "no idea, mate" but apparently now it's going to be the "2022 model" with a July 2022 arrival. 🤷‍♂️

In regards to Trek Checkpoints I see SLs multiple levels and a few AL5s. It nothing lower. More in the Trek factor stores.

I'm hoping that's true since my local Trek retailer has about 10 stores here in So Cal. I guess I'll take a trip over there and talk to them. When posing this question I was hoping there might be some inside info from some of you connected to the industry. I'm just not sure putting a deposit down is really going to make the bike get here any quicker and then all I've done is enrich the dealer for 9 months. It's quite frustrating when you're itching for a new bike.

I use Lynskey's website as a barometer of sorts. Right when covid hit, they were regularly having 20-30% off sales. Once things tightened up, they bumped their prices up about 20% and sales became very rare. If they had them, they were 10% off sales. Lately that have been having 20-25% off sales again, so I take that as an indication that the supply/demand is moving in the other direction.

I have used some of the alternative components and I agree with whoever above stated that Shimano is built to a higher tandard, but it's not by much. I find I can get 4 chains to a Shimano cassette, maybe about 12,000 kms. With a Sunrace cassette, I find that chains #1 & #2 are fine, but my the time you replace chain #3 you get skip when you apply power, and so you need to adjust your take-offs etc for a few 100 kms, until the chain wears in a bit and things play together a little more nicely. Microshift Acolyte, Advent and Advent X all seem to be okay (although I've only ridden Advent briefly), but the 7 speed microshift trigger shifters on my kid's bike are/were garbage. I scored some used Shimano Tourney shifters from an LBS for a few dollars that are made to a much higher standard (and that's saying something, I mean, we're talking about Tourney here...).

Still, right now there seems to be a lot of grey-market Shimano stuff available on Aliexpress. It seems real? I know a guy who rides it, I examined it really carefully and couldn't see anything that immediately screamed fake. I've also heard from a Taichung-based industry guy that there's a lot of "earmarked for OEM but diverted" stuff that finds its way onto that site. That said, obviously there's a bunch of fake stuff on Aliexpress, but you'd think that they'd be hard at work faking 1x12 XTR, rather than 2x10 Deore? I'm quite interested in some of the Taianese/Mainland Chinese alternative componentry, as well as that grey market brand name stuff, because you're not going to impoverish yourself trying it out.

I bought a new bike in October of 2021. The bike was supposed to arrive in December. Then January. Then late Feb. Etc. I am still waiting for my bike. Oh well. Not much I can do about it so I just keep on waiting.

I'm going to drop by my local Trek dealer today and ask if I can pre-order any 2023 models and see what they say. At least maybe they'll put 1 on hold for me(?)

Late reply: They didn't have any idea whether there would be supply chain issue, quantities or expected... whatever. Obviously they're not going to know this far in advance but I was still kind of amazed that they didn't have any kind of "heads up" from Trek. The LBS does have 10 stores here in So Cal and I would have expected they'd know something.

Anyway, I'm a little interested in seeing what the new Domane's look like. And, I'm not quite sure what size I would need (this is just me thinking out loud). I wonder if the LBS would allow me to pre-order and put a deposit down on one of each color and in 56cm and 58cm? I could try them out when they hit the store and then cancel the other ones? (just joking but it did cross my mind)

Here is what you need to know, bikes are coming eventually. The heads up is 2023 is the next year on the calendar but the industry will not be back to normal-ish capacity for a couple years at least. In terms of Trek they will probably have a 10% increase in logo size and price to match the increased logo size.

Was just talking yesterday with a friend of mine who is in the industry. He let me know there is talk of a coming glut next year as the supply chain is filling fast and production of certain models has caught up with demand, which haas slowed significantly from the past two years. Should be an interesting 23.

I ordered a Top Fuel at my LBS in February with an advertised ship date of 7/11/22. I guess we will see. At the time the sales guy said they were doing pretty well on those ship dates and each time I pay a little on it the date has stayed the same.

Like I said ....we will see but I consider that a positive overall.

Same in my area in WI. Bikes are everywhere at the dealers.

small / independent LBS I visit often still not able to get certain types of bikes

and distributor inventory still very low (or out) on many components

most of the prices of the bikes / accessories they can get has risen significantly