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-   -   Addiction LXXVIII (https://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=1197210)

Velo Vol 04-22-20 08:50 AM

I admit I'm curious what would happen if I acquired coronavirus. Would I get a fever? How hot? Be bedridden for days? Or would I be asymptomatic?

All this hype and I simply don't know.

BillyD 04-22-20 08:56 AM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21432808)
I admit I'm curious what would happen if I acquired coronavirus. Would I get a fever? How hot? Be bedridden for days? Or would I be asymptomatic? Or would I be dead?

All this hype and I simply don't know.

Fixed.

WhyFi 04-22-20 08:58 AM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21432808)
I admit I'm curious what would happen if I acquired coronavirus. Would I get a fever? How hot? Be bedridden for days? Or would I be asymptomatic?

All this hype and I simply don't know.

Hell, I'm curious to know if I've already had it.

Velo Vol 04-22-20 09:00 AM


Originally Posted by BillyD (Post 21432822)
Fixed.

I don't think I'd be dead.

big john 04-22-20 09:00 AM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21432808)
I admit I'm curious what would happen if I acquired coronavirus. Would I get a fever? How hot? Be bedridden for days? Or would I be asymptomatic?

All this hype and I simply don't know.

It seems to be a hit and miss kind of thing. Healthy young people have died from it.

WhyFi 04-22-20 09:03 AM

Hey Bah Humbug - have you waded in to the wild waters of Japanese natural stones? I'm thinking about picking one up.

Velo Vol 04-22-20 09:04 AM


Originally Posted by WhyFi (Post 21432825)
Hell, I'm curious to know if I've already had it.

A study in LA County suggests 4% of the population has antibodies, which means there's hundreds of thousands of unconfirmed cases there alone.

big john 04-22-20 09:13 AM

First world problem; I'd like to do some flat spinning for a couple hours but there's nothing flat around here and I live on a small hill. I could drive 10-12 miles to a nice bike path network but it might be crowded. That's probably what I'll do though.

ericy 04-22-20 09:17 AM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21432849)
A study in LA County suggests 4% of the population has antibodies, which means there's hundreds of thousands of unconfirmed cases there alone.

It seems like the doctors are quickly learning what helps and what doesn't.

The latest seems to be that putting someone on a ventilator is really a last resort. There was something interesting the other day that suggested that they can detect people getting into trouble before there are any real symptoms of breathing problems:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/o...pneumonia.html

LesterOfPuppets 04-22-20 09:25 AM


Originally Posted by WhyFi (Post 21432825)
Hell, I'm curious to know if I've already had it.

I'm often convinced I have it.

LesterOfPuppets 04-22-20 09:26 AM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21432831)
I don't think I'd be dead.

I wouldn't be so confident...


datlas 04-22-20 09:33 AM

Back from a ride. It was cold and windy, felt more like February than April.

MoAlpha 04-22-20 09:34 AM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21432849)
A study in LA County suggests 4% of the population has antibodies, which means there's hundreds of thousands of unconfirmed cases there alone.

Santa Clara. There were 50 positives in a sample of >3000 asymptomatic responders to a FB ad. Also interesting was a >13% positive rate in women admitted to a labor and delivery service at a Manhattan hospital. Both of these are likely overestimates of the prevalence of antibodies in the population. The NIAID has a 10,000 person serosurvey underway too. We'll have a better understanding soon. All that said, there is major concern about the specificity of the existing antibody tests, all of which may cross-react with other coronaviruses, thereby inflating the estimates.

LesterOfPuppets 04-22-20 09:36 AM


Originally Posted by big john (Post 21432863)
First world problem; I'd like to do some flat spinning for a couple hours but there's nothing flat around here and I live on a small hill. I could drive 10-12 miles to a nice bike path network but it might be crowded. That's probably what I'll do though.

It would probably be pretty empty at 4:30 am. You might have to take dawn patrol ride lessons from [MENTION=351576]Heathpack[/MENTION] :)

Velo Vol 04-22-20 09:39 AM


Originally Posted by LesterOfPuppets (Post 21432892)
I wouldn't be so confident...

https://youtu.be/vmotfhn5j0Q

The thought crossed my mind on a few hills this month.

Velo Vol 04-22-20 09:42 AM


Originally Posted by MoAlpha (Post 21432914)
Santa Clara. There were 50 positives in a sample of >3000 asymptomatic responders to a FB ad. Also interesting was a >13% positive rate in women admitted to a labor and delivery service at a Manhattan hospital. Both of these are likely overestimates of the prevalence of antibodies in the population. The NIAID has a 10,000 person serosurvey underway too. We'll have a better understanding soon. All that said, there is major concern about the specificity of the existing antibody tests, all of which may cross-react with other coronaviruses, thereby inflating the estimates.

Related

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/roch...rs-ethics.html

MoAlpha 04-22-20 09:46 AM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21432933)

Intimately.

big john 04-22-20 09:50 AM


Originally Posted by LesterOfPuppets (Post 21432919)
It would probably be pretty empty at 4:30 am. You might have to take dawn patrol ride lessons from [MENTION=351576]Heathpack[/MENTION] :)

Naw, I don't need to ride in the dark. Before the shutdown some members of one of the clubs I ride with were doing a 5:30 a.m. ride twice a week. No thanks. Yesterday was one year since I retired.

Heathpack 04-22-20 10:05 AM


Originally Posted by MoAlpha (Post 21432914)
Santa Clara. There were 50 positives in a sample of >3000 asymptomatic responders to a FB ad. Also interesting was a >13% positive rate in women admitted to a labor and delivery service at a Manhattan hospital. Both of these are likely overestimates of the prevalence of antibodies in the population. The NIAID has a 10,000 person serosurvey underway too. We'll have a better understanding soon. All that said, there is major concern about the specificity of the existing antibody tests, all of which may cross-react with other coronaviruses, thereby inflating the estimates.

LA County has done a better designed study too, just announced results yesterday. They found greater seroprevalence than expected but not as high as in the NoCal study.

However as I understand it they both used the same test methodology and there are some questions as to its reliability.

Have you read the not-yet-peer-reviewed draft of the NoCal study? I have and I was confused by something in their methods section. In determining specificity of the test, they ran it on three groups of blood samples. Two of these control sample groups were small, in the 30 sample range, and the test had no false negatives. The other sample group was larger, almost 400 samples. These were preCOVID samples (whatever that means, I’d make them define that if I were reviewing the paper! But presumably blood samples collected from a time far enough in the past that the patients from who the samples were taken could not possibly have been infected with this novel corona virus). In this larger sample, they had 4 positives, so a false positive rate of 10.1%. Yet they calculate their test specificity to be something like 97.7%. Seems to me like that’s too high of a specificity for a test that had a 10% false positive rate in the largest control group tested. But I’m bad at stats.

Since their study group was something just under 4000 people, if we apply the 10% false positive rate to that group, you’d get 40 positives. The study subject group had far less positives than that- ie *all* the positives in the study sample could have been false positives. So it’s seems like a hugely flawed study to me, it will be interesting to see if it makes it through review.

Also the interesting thing with their case recruitment being through FB ads. That seems to me like they really could have biased their study sample towards people who thought they’d been sick with COVID but couldn’t get tested. Those would be the people IMO who would be most motivated to seek out testing, and the way FB works it’s easy to be connected to likeminded people in the same boat as you. So I could see that the study participants were skewed towards people who suspected they’d had the disease.

Then did you catch the fact that signing up for the study was first come first served, and if you got in, you were allowed to bring a child from your household. When you look at the number of children in the study, you realize that around 50% of the study samples were from two people in the same household. So if you’d already selected inavertently for COVID suspects, now you’ve just doubled your expected number of positives because you’ve included some many in-contact samples from the same household.

Bottom line: I think that study is such as mess, or at least it is as I can understand it fromhow it’s written now, that it may be impossible to get much of anything out of it. If you haven’t seen the released early draft of the study, I can link to it.

MoAlpha 04-22-20 10:12 AM


Originally Posted by Heathpack (Post 21432970)
LA County has done a better designed study too, just announced results yesterday. They found greater seroprevalence than expected but not as high as in the NoCal study.

However as I understand it they both used the same test methodology and there are some questions as to its reliability.

Have you read the not-yet-peer-reviewed draft of the NoCal study? I have and I was confused by something in their methods section. In determining specificity of the test, they ran it on three groups of blood samples. Two of these control sample groups were small, in the 30 sample range, and the test had no false negatives. The other sample group was larger, almost 400 samples. These were preCOVID samples (whatever that means, I’d make them define that if I were reviewing the paper! But presumably blood samples collected from a time far enough in the past that the patients from who the samples were taken could not possibly have been infected with this novel corona virus). In this larger sample, they had 4 positives, so a false positive rate of 10.1%. Yet they calculate their test specificity to be something like 97.7%. Seems to me like that’s too high of a specificity for a test that had a 10% false positive rate in the largest control group tested. But I’m bad at stats.

Since their study group was something just under 4000 people, if we apply the 10% false positive rate to that group, you’d get 40 positives. The study subjects had far less positives than that. So it’s seems like a hugely flawed study to me, it will be interesting to see if it makes it through review.

Also the interesting thing with their case recruitment being through FB ads. That seems to me like they really could have biased their study sample towards people who thought they’d been sick with COVID but couldn’t get tested. Those would be the people IMO who would be most motivated to seek out testing, and the way FB works it’s easy to be connected to likeminded people in the same boat as you. So I could see that the study participants were skewed towards people who suspected they’d had the disease.

Then did you catch the fact that signing up for the study was first come first served, and if you got in, you were allowed to bring a child from your household. When you look at the number of children in the study, you realize that around 50% of the study samples were from two people in the same household. So if you’d already selected inavertently for COVID suspects, now you’ve just doubled your expected number of positives because you’ve included some many in-contact samples from the same household.

Bottom line: I think that study is such as mess, or at least it is as I can understand it fromhow it’s written now, that it may be impossible to get much of anything out of it. If you haven’t seen the released early draft of the study, I can link to it.

You're clearly ahead of me! I'll have to find the LA study or wait for the experts on the NIH COVID listserv to take it apart today.

Yes, I saw about the kids. Huge selection bias there. The NIAID study is trying to avoid this by telling everyone upfront that they won't get their results.

WhyFi 04-22-20 10:30 AM

Car crap is all taken care of but, as predicted, my enthusiasm for a ride has dwindled. The service was going to take a little than I'd initially expected, so I decided to walk home (3.5 miles) and then I took the bus back when it was finished. The walk didn't tire me out or anything, but it did take the edge off of that I-need-to-expend-some-energy-or-I'm-going-to-lose-my-mind feeling. Maybe I'll take care of a few things around the house and then see if the stir-crazies bubble up again.

abshipp 04-22-20 10:54 AM


Originally Posted by WhyFi (Post 21432613)
Can't ride from the shop - need the cargo room for the summer tires and no bike rack.


Originally Posted by WhyFi (Post 21433021)
I decided to walk home (3.5 miles) and then I took the bus back when it was finished.

Time for a folder?

Or maybe a mini-velo?

datlas 04-22-20 10:58 AM


Originally Posted by MoAlpha (Post 21432914)
Santa Clara. There were 50 positives in a sample of >3000 asymptomatic responders to a FB ad. Also interesting was a >13% positive rate in women admitted to a labor and delivery service at a Manhattan hospital. Both of these are likely overestimates of the prevalence of antibodies in the population. The NIAID has a 10,000 person serosurvey underway too. We'll have a better understanding soon. All that said, there is major concern about the specificity of the existing antibody tests, all of which may cross-react with other coronaviruses, thereby inflating the estimates.

True. And the HUGE question is how long do we have acquired immunity?

WhyFi 04-22-20 11:04 AM


Originally Posted by abshipp (Post 21433070)
Time for a folder?

Or maybe a mini-velo?

For the twice-per-year tire swap? I admire your powers of bike justification, but I'd rather bend that logic towards something more fun.

Bah Humbug 04-22-20 11:06 AM


Originally Posted by abshipp (Post 21433070)
Time for a folder?

Or maybe a mini-velo?

Or do what I did for that situation and run. Simpler and an easy way to handle a few miles.

Velo Vol 04-22-20 11:10 AM


Originally Posted by WhyFi (Post 21433021)
I decided to walk home (3.5 miles)

Estimated average power?

WhyFi 04-22-20 11:19 AM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21433102)
Estimated average power?

Sadly, no wattage estimates. This is the best that I can do -

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...4570b12d2e.jpg

Bah Humbug 04-22-20 11:23 AM


Originally Posted by datlas (Post 21433078)
True. And the HUGE question is how long do we have acquired immunity?

So here's a sequence of dumb questions for you and MoAlpha and any other docs in the house.

1) If getting the disease does not confer immunity, can a vaccine confer immunity?
2) If getting the disease only confers temporary immunity, can a vaccine also only confer temporary immunity?
3) If all of the above is true, is it likely that subsequent infections are less likely to cause the severe symptoms? Obviously this will be an extrapolation.

Because if this can be reacquired, a vaccine can't stop it, and it continues to play Russian roulette with your lungs... we're just done.

ls01 04-22-20 11:26 AM


Originally Posted by rjones28 (Post 21432629)
She was fine.


Originally Posted by Bah Humbug (Post 21433093)
Or do what I did for that situation and run. Simpler and an easy way to handle a few miles.

Perv

rjones28 04-22-20 11:26 AM


Originally Posted by Bah Humbug (Post 21433093)
Or do what I did for that situation and run. Simpler and an easy way to handle a few miles.

It's super windy today, but the sun is out. I'm going for a short run. :twitchy:


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