Heads Up. The bike shortage will be through most of the 2021 season
 

Just a heads up to anyone that may be considering a new bike purchase in 2021 that the manufacturers basically will not be able to catch up with demand this year so if you have your eye on something it would be wise to snag it by March or April to be sure you can get your size and model. Some brands have cut orders to smaller dealers entirely or said they will only deliver 1/2 to 1/3 of what was ordered for some models. Some models will not be delivered until August or September, and even spare parts will be scarce in many cases. This is impacting essentially all brands and will even impact brands that are sold online. If you have something in your garage that you nolonger ride it also may be a good time to sell it as you can get top dollar right now and sell just about anything quickly. Many dealers are taking down payments and preselling bikes that are expected in so even much of what will be delivered to dealers is already presold. And many brands are telling dealers that they will not be able to order any replacement stock after their initial orders arwe delivered. This si impacting essentially all brands, but some are affected more than others. People are already calling store-based dealers many states away to find a model they want and are asking to have the bike shipped because they are being told that their local dealers cannot get the bike they want this year.

I've also noticed some significant price jumps on several bikes in the past month. With some bikes suddenly $400-$500+ more than they were a month or two ago on manufacturer websites.

Yup, was looking for a new road bike, talked to my LBS and they said they can't make any guarantees that they could get an order it, or when it might arrive. Told me that if I can find something elsewhere to go ahead and buy it (I did, having a bike shipped from a shop in NJ). Also noticed that almost all brands are raising prices. The bike I bought, Cannondale SuperSix, went up $300 across all models, thankfully I got mine at the previous price, so even with shipping it's still cheaper.

I sure am glad I bought my two new bikes late last year. Even then, it was tough to get them into my LBS. Both were delayed many times.

Taiwanese currency has gone up relative to the U.S. dollar, so if a bike has anything made there it will be more expensive (I didn't check this recently)

Our shop does not sell online but we have shipped phone orders for new bikes in the past 2 months to Washington State, Kentucky, Virginia, S Carolina and I think Florida; we are in PA.

I am patiently waiting for the day/month/year when (some) of the folx who bought up all the 2020 bikes in the first wave of COVID-19 realize they only rode their new bike a handful of times before they realized they don't like cycling, especially on gravel.
I will happily pay for a barely-used 58cm IBIS Hakka MX from 2020.

It takes 5 years for people to give up on their new bike, so you probably won't want the 2020 when they sell it. In fact, it often takes decades. From what I have seen, the new riders are buying hybrids, not nice gravel bikes.
Enthusiast bikes, i.e. $1500+ are not going to be sold until they are worn out.

Talking to my LBS, I'm told that the major manufacturers have LOTS of frames ready to go...all waiting for drivetrains from Shimano and SRAM....I was also advised that service parts were likely to get scarce(r) by the time the season starts, so I was advised to stock up/hoard some consumables (chains are about all I don't have on hand).

If I can't go anywhere and I can't see anyone, I better damn well be able to ride a bike.....

Many LBS in Toronto (Canada) area having same challenges, but I don’t think it’s dire...just continues to be a big shift in comparison to 2+ years ago.

Last spring I lucked out on finding a new Ultegra R8000 group that I’m putting on the road bike this spring.

And I recently bought a gravel with the wheels and drivetrain I had wanted...so feeling pretty lucky.

I'm building a second set of wheels for my Domane and have everything except........ a Shimano Cassette. I ordered one a couple weeks ago from my LBS and it was supposed to be here this week. NOPE!! Pushed back to the 22nd. As we get closer, it will probably be pushed back again.

buy online? i understand the desire to shop local, but if the local option doesnt have what you want and isnt able/willing to get what you want, why continue to push?
what cassette specs are they unable to get?

I always go through my local shop. They were a sponsor of mine when I was racing and they are my riding buddies. If they didn't have it or couldn't get it when I first wanted one, I would have looked online and purchased if I found one. But, I placed an order expecting a fairly quick turn around, and it just didn't happen. I'll stick with them, it's not their fault. Plus, the wheels I got were the owners old wheels that he gave me along with the rotors. I just need a cassette.

to each their own. like i said- totally understand the draw to a local shop. one of the shops by me helps support a youth program i work with and i try to support them when possible too. a month(or possibly more) just seems like a long time to wait patiently for a cassette.

Most Shimano cassettes were already projected for May at the earliest. I'm not sure where the online shops are getting them, it wouldn't be from Shimano.

Shops of any decent size can order directly from Shimano and Shimano is giving more priority in ordering to local shops now actually. Some of the big online places may have some older stock still, but when they are out they will be ordering replacements from the same place the shops are. Shimano is also rationing. Our recent order for 35 cassettes was cut ~2/3 to 10 for now. We also are now buying bulk chain on 250 foot rolls and are cutting to length as needed with no waste (and no packaging to throw away). We never did that before but it is the only way we can get chains right now. The rolls weigh a ton! We are also building bikes from new frames that we can get, using components we have in old stock or parts the customer has from previous bikes. It is sort of what I imagine it was like during WWII when rationing was prevalent and you had to scrounge for everything!

You got bulk chain from Shimano?

Sorry, I jumped suppliers there. Bulk 7-speed chain from KMC. We go through it like crazy as there are just so many 7-speed hybrids and older MTBs out there.

dwmckee - Any idea how Trek, Specialized, etc. are going to roll out new model year bikes this year? Are they just going to cancel all outstanding orders at some point and start shipping new bikes? Or introduce new bikes really late this year? It might be a tricky problem to figure out when to stop making 2020 bikes and start stocking up for 2021. Especially since they probably won't have a ton of 2021 bikes available at launch.

2020 bikes were already sold last year. Many 2021 bikes were sold last year. As I understand it, they have been shipping bikes when they get them in. Normal model year distinctions are out the window, I wouldn't expect any discounts.

Cannondale announced they were going to transition away from yearly models since its a clearly flawed way to make and sell bikes. They arent as big as the big 3, but maybe the trend that has long been part of smaller brands and Cannondale has embraced will soon transition to the big 3 too.

I read this article:

www.bicycleretailer. com/industry-news/2020/07/01/cannondale-aligns-model-year-calendar#.YCGllndKiYB

And it doesn't sound like they are totally moving away from the model years. Some models may last longer than a year (with potentially new paint options). They also mention they could update a bike if a new groupset came out in the second year. But they will still come out with new models each year (but now at the start of the year).

It is a tough problem, especially now.

In early January, my local bike shop turned me away when I tried to buy a 2021 Giant TCX. I walked in ready to pay and just left. They wouldn't consider taking my order. I actually appreciate them not wasting my time given they:
- told me that they were already sitting on 3,000 orders for Giant bikes.
- showed me a printed list of the back orders, it indeed looked like 3,000 orders
- said that Giant was the most backordered brand they sold
- said that they hadn't taken a "custom order", meaning an order for a model they didn't have in stock, in almost six months
- said that they anticipated only fulfilling ~20% of their backorders

More recently, they quoted a friend of mine a 2023 delivery date (!) for a Giant Propel. This is a very large, well known shop that has plenty of "pull" with distributors.

This all seems pretty extreme. Perhaps other brands are in a better spot, but Specialized and Trek are definitely in similarly short supply in my local stores. Direct sales brands like Canyon and YT haven't had many popular models in popular sizes in stock for months, I've checked. The most popular components (especially Shimano) have been on back order for months.

It's a very extreme situation right now. I assume it will all sort itself out in due time, but for now it's a bit dire.

Each time I revisit this thread, I end up going online and ordering yet another 11 speed chain, and occasionally a cassette.