Interesting Article on the Covid Bike Boom
 

https://www.statista.com/chart/25088...g-on-bicycles/

They are saying peak was Qtr 2 2021.

The boom would have been more substantial yet, if supply could have kept up with demand. I wonder if we'll see a bump in the used market as the economy continues to falter.

It has quieted down in my neck of the woods. More cars and trucks on the road, but not many cyclists.

I am betting the used market will really start to open up as inflation continues to take its toll and some people struggle to make ends meets and unload bikes to get some cash.

I would say the same here too. Where I ride (on a couple well-known rail trails) I had never seen it as busy as I did in 2020. By 2021 it was much more back to normal.

It's been busy this year so far, but that's just because about 8 out of 9 weekends have been wet and cold. The one nice weekend was really busy.

Availability
 

No sign of high end bikes being unloaded in the SF Bay Area.
Craigslist has been quite bare with the exception of a couple of older Tri bikes.

Locally, even new ones are being quoted for 2023.
I don’t like buying sight unseen, but had to buy out of state and have it shipped.

Barry

The peak of $8.3b may have been Q2 of '21, but the decline has been very gradual.

Consumption jumped from $6.1b to $8.2 b in 1 year- Q1 '20 to Q1 '21. It has dropped just $.7b in 1 year from Q1 '21 to Q1 '22.
So a $2.1b increase and a $.7b decrease in the same time period.

no sign of people unloading new bikes on craigslist here

have noticed most bikes for sale are listed at inflated prices..seems to be the same ones for sale week after week

Does this account for the imposition of tariffs?

Predictions are hard. Especially when they're predictions of the future.

Most of the local bike shops that were in short supply of bikes now seem to be full.

I predict that in 4 or 5 years there will be great deals on a lot the the bikes that were bought, at garage sales. At my age I have seen it happen several times. A reason like this one comes along, a lot of new buyers go out and buy a bike, and ride it a couple dozen times. The hey hang it up in the garage for four or five years, and then sell it for pennies on the dollar at a garage sale. So four or five years from now there should be some really good deals on those bikes.

So? I predict the sun will rise tomorrow. It's always a safe bet that some of the bikes that are bought now will be great deals in 4 years. It's also a safe bet that some people will also try to sell some of their used bikes for too much money and that some people will overpay for some of those bikes.

My impression is they have bikes, but there's nowhere near the amount of selections available. If you're looking for something specific, "on order" or "sold out" is still pretty standard.

the location for these sales make a difference for a more accurate prediction. If the weather/climate typically has 80% decent riding weather, then the general public of that area is more likely to have a higher demand. Michigan, LOL. I would say 95% of those in Michigan that jump on to the bicycle trend, only did it to "have something to do" . The parents buy the $1K+ bicycles & then buy the $500 or less stuff for there kids. Single people heat up the card & just stack on that debt. It's the Michigan way.

I ran into that with the last purchase. I knew it was going to be the case, but didn't expect it to be as bad as it was.

If junk, poorly fitting, ugly, or BSO is what someone is after, there's a selection to pick from. If anything else is sought after, good luck. Even if the wallet was opened wider to overpay for it, the probability doesn't increase much.

That's why I only predict past events. So far, I'm batting a thousand.

Yep, I have a Trek FX 5 on order, due date is Jan 2023.

I ordered my Top Fuel 9.8 XT in February. Was able to lock in the price by paying for a large amount of it up front. Ship date has been holding steady at July 11th. I could have had a few similar models but wanted a specific bike and color combo and was willing to wait for it.

Remember these are in 'constant' 2012 dollars. That is if you bought a bike for $1000 in 2012 and then a new bike for $1200 in 2022 this chart would show you spent 5% less in 2022 on bicycles then in 2012 as the cumulative rate of inflation for the last 10 years is ~26%. The rate of decline from 1Q21 to 1Q22 is just over 9%, a few points higher than consumer inflation. But my anecdotal experience for 2021 was that the price for bicycles increased at a fairly quick pace and I got sticker shock looking at new bikes last fall. It would interesting to put this chart against the # of bicycles and bicycle stuff actually sold to see if people are buying bikes at about the same rate and the chart is actually showing you how steeply prices have increased in the last year.

That's why I like to stick with predictions of the past. So far I have a 100% success rate.

I can even screw those up.

If the used bike market is anything like the pet market, that would be a solid YES. People in my part of the world are dumping the pets they picked up during covid all over the place. The humane societies are overflowing with dumped off pets. So sad. People are terrible.

That is heartbreaking. Dogs are family to me. Better than most people.

I don't know how typical is, but bikesdirect prices have dropped a lot in the last few months. Keep in mind that one of the things that happened during the pandemic was a near collapse of the shipping system, with items like bicycles getting stuck on ships and at ports for weeks at great cost to the retailers.

In this day & age, I wouldn't expect any less. I've noticed that those that have/had elderly pulled most of them out of a senior living center or sold off the parent(s) house because they could tend to them while working from home. Now that most have had to go back, they have no where to go because the money was spent on leisurely things & the parent(s) don't qualify for low income housing. So now the elderly are being mistreated, gone without being taken care of, or dumped off on a sibling that didn't make those decisions & cannot afford what the older sibling(s) decided to do.

Sad times.

IMO, BD had to drop those prices to stay competitive. They may be retailing stuff that is above an BSO, but they are not in the same league as the brand names when considering everything else & not just group sets.