Will Human Power Cycling Sunset?
 

I do not have a crystal ball.
I do not have visions.

I do not see a lot of kids on bicycles.
I do see 20 somethings riding electric bicycles and electric scooters.
Transportation is moving toward electrification.

Are we a dying breed?

fat biker

No, because self powered cycling is too much fun. The steam engine did not end sailing, just sailing as bulk transport.

That being said, I'm in a big city where lots of people never drive. Still plenty of kids riding. Totally different than the burbs and rural living, where a car is a necessity.

We've been a dying breed,
for a century or so.

The point of our extinction,
is beyond the horizon.

Ebikes gonna die out once we start getting all the e-motorcycles from China. All the actual bikers will remain as the nutech **** move on to the next cool thing.

Very likely something like this.

What I see are bicyclists who ride trails and hills and bicyclists who use bikes for transportation. I could imagine the electric bikes to be becoming more popular for transportation.

No I expect pedal-powered bicycles to remain a 'thing.' Most e-bikes I see in my area are ridden by minors, usually to-and-from school. I theorize their parents bought them e-bikes for that purpose and they will be abandoned once the kids get their drivers licenses. I see a few adult riders on e-bikes, but they only appear to be out for a little fresh air, nothing athletic involved.

As a form of “transportation”…it may fade, but it won’t go away completely. Compare it to sailing. Before steamships, and then once they evolved. People still sail…mostly for recreation. But it never went away completely. But separate from “transportation”…as a form of “fitness”…it will last forever.

Dan

I think the generation of kids growing up now will have highly developed thumb muscles, from pressing keys on their phones and video game controllers.
The rest of them will be mush.

p.s.: Get off my lawn. :50:

I think e-bikes are taking a percentage of riders away from human powered bicycling. Many other e-bike riders would have never ridden bicycles.
I know the road clubs which I ride with are getting smaller for various reasons.

"Purpose" is the key word. For what purpose does one grab a bike? Different tools for different missions, whether exercise or cargo delivery or whatever.

I have mixed thoughts about what the future holds. Here is my guess.

Younger, serious cyclists (those that self-identify as such) will likely continue to ride bicycles.
A good percentage of older, serious cyclists will ride ebikes (the lighter kind more comparable to a bicycle), others will go on with bicycles.

Less serious cyclists of all ages will ride ebikes if they can afford them. These will be the hybrid or cargo type ... more comparable to a mini-bike with pedals. There will be more of these, as they are going to be intrigued by the technology, and let's face it ... it's easier to ride them and convenience is king to most people.

Do I think it will be a transportation revolution? We can always hope, but I doubt it. I think it will run it's course just like the bike boom in the 70s, with a lot of ebikes ending up mostly unused and in people's garages.

Those of us still riding real bicycles will become a smaller and smaller percentage of users of transportation infrastructure. In this age of miss-information, many folks think an electric bike is the same as a real bicycle and serves the same purpose. Why pedal when you can coast. Also many ebikers don't trust themselves sharing the road with cars so I doubt that they will transition to more powerful motorcycles. I'm pretty sure that most electric car owners switched from ICEs for the convenience: they don't want to stop for gas. The same people dond't want to pedal or sweat.

Didja's raise this much dust when 5sp manual transmissions were being intubated in car dealerships all over the land? How is it that the evolution of bicycles causes so much emotional response in the country with the least active cyclists of any developed country? I don't know and don't care who will or won't ride a 'real' bike 20 years from now. There will always be 'real' bicycles for ONE very inelastic reason: they will always be cheaper. Lots cheaper.

lol ... as a matter of fact, I DO bemoan how hard it is to get a manual transmission nowadays. They are going the way of the dodo, because they are now less fuel efficient and are incompatible with some safety and autonomous drive options now and in the future. I understand the reasons, but will miss rowing through the gears myself.

I would dispute that ebikes are the evolution of the bicycle. Adding a motor makes them a completely different conveyance, just as it did when motorcycles made their appearance.

IMHO, there are bicycles, ebikes and motorcycles. And ebike is not a bicycle, as it has a motor, and it is not a motorcycle, as it requires pedaling (I would consider the throttle controlled variants as electric motorcycles).

I'm a tell ye what's gone happen. They got these new-fangled thangs nowadays called auto-mobiles and moto-sickles. Ain't nobody gone ride no doggone bikes no mores once them thangs catch on. You jest mark my words.

Gotta love those cheap Chinese battery packs and chargers! :eek:

I don't see those of us that are adrenaline junkies moving to e-bikes. Unless maybe it's to keep up with our younger friends as we get in our twilight years. As mentioned by others, most of those that are getting e-bikes probably would never have gotten a regular bike in the first place.

There is a group of young men who frequent the rough sandstone hills near here. These e-bike Mad Max looking characters wear body armor and full face helmets. I've been warned to avoid them when they are descending. They have long travel bikes with big motors.

To your other point, several older people I know have purchased e-road bikes. Two of them due to physical problems and others just because they don't feel like working so hard anymore. I am a candidate for a road e-bike because I can't keep up with my speedier friends. I never could, it just kicks my ass more than before.

I guess I should have realized that there are other ways to get a adrenaline rush!

However that does bring up the question if their bikes should even be considered e-bikes. At some point when the motor gets beyond a certain size or amperage and the need for pedaling goes away, is it even an e-bike any more or is it simply a motor cycle?

Those are things yet to be well addressed by laws and litigation.

I don't even know the laws and classes on these things. Pretty sure the bike those guys have require pedaling. I know there are electric motocross bikes which are big enough and powerful enough to race against gas engine motorcycles.

I think if they have pedals and are riding in an area where e-bikes are allowed no law enforcement people would question them.
On the road there are laws regarding types of bikes, etc,. but I can't see law enforcement pulling a rider over to see if they are on a legal bike.

A friend has a Trek e-bike which was sold with a speed limiter, don't remember which number, 21mph or 28mph, but he was able to defeat the limiter and it will power over 40mph. Is it legal? I don't know but I can't imagine where it would ever come up.

It will come up when the lawyer representing the person he hits at 40MPH that suffers severe injuries sues him and Trek. Trek will send lawyers and engineers to prove he modified the bike, and he'll be in a world of doo-doo.

Excellent analogy!

Seems like yet another variation of the millennium old "kids these days" diatribe.

Stuff changes, people adapt.

I think personal mobility devices will have a far bigger impact on automobile usage than bicycle usage. They already are, in many places. A lot of those kids running around on e-bikes aren't displaced cyclists, they are displaced passengers in their mom's SUV.

Absolutely true! Ebikes are great because they get people out of cars. That said, they are darned expensive and therefore will never displace bicycles. The only reason that the OP does not see kids or adults biking is that much of the US urban environment has been built solely for car traffic, to the exclusion of pedestrians of bicyclists. That said, there are many cities that are greatly improving bicycle infrastructure. I live in one...Berkeley California...but there are plenty of others. New York is another example, as is San Francisco. Of course, we are way behind so many other world cities such as Amsterdam, Paris, and London, but change is afoot. Cars are a horrible way to get around cities. Transit and bikes are really the only feasible and pleasant option.