Bike Forums

Bike Forums (https://www.bikeforums.net/forum.php)
-   Road Cycling (https://www.bikeforums.net/forumdisplay.php?f=41)
-   -   Addiction LXXVIII (https://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=1197210)

datlas 04-05-20 06:28 AM

Hey MoAlpha that IHME site you posted for COVID19 projections is interesting, but they have not updated since 4/1 and there is lots more data rolling in. Got any better or more updated sites to suggest?

datlas 04-05-20 06:29 AM

I think I have recovered from doorbusting shoppegeddon to go for a ride. Back in a few hours.

MoAlpha 04-05-20 06:38 AM


Originally Posted by datlas (Post 21401457)
Hey MoAlpha that IHME site you posted for COVID19 projections is interesting, but they have not updated since 4/1 and there is lots more data rolling in. Got any better or more updated sites to suggest?

Sad! No. I will look around.

Bah Humbug 04-05-20 06:54 AM


Originally Posted by bampilot06 (Post 21401450)
still flying. Had 0 passengers last night. This morning I had 8.

Seems like flying now carries less contagion risk than grocery shopping.

Bah Humbug 04-05-20 06:55 AM


Originally Posted by MoAlpha (Post 21401465)
Sad! No. I will look around.

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

MoAlpha 04-05-20 06:56 AM


Originally Posted by datlas (Post 21401457)
Hey MoAlpha that IHME site you posted for COVID19 projections is interesting, but they have not updated since 4/1 and there is lots more data rolling in. Got any better or more updated sites to suggest?

Hereís another model web site, at least:

https://covidactnow.org

Donít know whether the inputs differ from the UW one or when they ran it last, but it does give outputs based on different social control scenarios.

MoAlpha 04-05-20 06:58 AM


Originally Posted by Bah Humbug (Post 21401482)

Didnít see modeling there on a cursory look.

bampilot06 04-05-20 07:02 AM


Originally Posted by Bah Humbug (Post 21401481)
Seems like flying now carries less contagion risk than grocery shopping.


airports are empty. Only a couple of restaurants are open in philly and charlotte. Iím catching a ride home now, and there are only 5 passengers on this flight.

seedsbelize 04-05-20 07:05 AM


Originally Posted by MoAlpha (Post 21401483)
Hereís another model web site, at least:

https://covidactnow.org

Donít know whether the inputs differ from the UW one or when they ran it last, but it does give outputs based on different social control scenarios.

Lotta words and names there but where is the model?

MoAlpha 04-05-20 07:06 AM


Originally Posted by seedsbelize (Post 21401500)
Lotta words and names there but where is the model?

Click on a state for the prediction.

Velo Vol 04-05-20 07:11 AM


Originally Posted by bampilot06 (Post 21401450)
still flying. Had 0 passengers last night. This morning I had 8.

Kudos.

Velo Vol 04-05-20 07:14 AM


Originally Posted by MoAlpha (Post 21401504)
Click on a state for the prediction.

https://covidactnow.org/us/tn

Unclear if TN would currently fall under the limited action or poor compliance conditions.

seedsbelize 04-05-20 07:21 AM


Originally Posted by MoAlpha (Post 21401504)
Click on a state for the prediction.

Thanks

MoAlpha 04-05-20 07:21 AM


Originally Posted by seedsbelize (Post 21401512)
But I don't have a state. I have been wondering what it would look like with no controls, so maybe S C.


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21401515)
https://covidactnow.org/us/tn

Unclear if TN would currently fall under the limited action or poor compliance conditions.

No, guys. The model includes no actual data on what people are doing in a given state. These are the same what ifs for all states. All that differs by state is current estimated cases and number of beds.

Trsnrtr 04-05-20 08:05 AM


Originally Posted by seedsbelize (Post 21401112)
I have not heard of Doom.

Doom was a blockbuster breakthrough in the PC gaming world. I have fond memories playing as a space marine with my 13-14 year old son.

Trsnrtr 04-05-20 08:08 AM


Originally Posted by seedsbelize (Post 21401234)
I've struggled with tires before, but after over an hour with the bead jack AND tying it iff at numerous places, I have given up on seating the first bead. A big part of the problem is the sidewall virtually doesn't exist. I will likely destroy said sidewall before I manage to mount it. Kenda Small Block 8. My new off road tires. I was going for it in order to ride off road tomorrow morning. Not goohhnn happen.

I had a Trek sponsorship when they introduced the Matrix rims. A lot of cussing went on with those.

Trsnrtr 04-05-20 08:10 AM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21401406)
wut

Never heard of it.

Windows evil

rjones28 04-05-20 08:12 AM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21401441)
You're still flying? I saw a tweet yesterday about a flight with one passenger.

https://twitter.com/USATODAY/status/1246477127374995457

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

Trsnrtr 04-05-20 08:15 AM

After managing three sub-20 mile rides last week, my wife has asked me to bring her bike up from the workroom. It hasn't seen the road since September 2018. It would be quite a milestone.

BillyD 04-05-20 09:01 AM


Originally Posted by datlas (Post 21401442)
I am guessing his job is up in the air.

(ducks)

I heard a pun this morning in a report about a plan to relieve toilet paper hoarding, saying ďThatís a plan we all can get behindĒ. :twitchy:

BillyD 04-05-20 09:08 AM


Originally Posted by bampilot06 (Post 21401413)

Worth repeating.

seedsbelize 04-05-20 09:12 AM


Originally Posted by BillyD (Post 21401215)
Hot.

Nice seat bag

Trsnrtr 04-05-20 09:16 AM


Originally Posted by BillyD (Post 21401657)
I heard a pun this morning in a report about a plan to relieve toilet paper hoarding, saying ďThatís a plan we all can get behindĒ. :twitchy:

I heard that a couple times this morning, too. Did you here the expert explaining why people hoard TP? He said people are trying to control at least one aspect of their worried lives.

Fact, the TP industry knows pretty well how much TP to make in a year and most of our paper is made here in the USA. It's a simple population and poop formula which doesn't change with the CV unless people start using it for things for which it's not intended which is fairly unlikely. As a result, the TP shortage is of our own making and not rational. The TP makers won't make more because there is no need. The current problem comes in delivery as hoarders have stripped the shelves.

Now, paper towels is a whole other problem because we've become cleaners like never before. :rolleyes:

seedsbelize 04-05-20 09:21 AM

The WheelPro truing stand is finally complete. I hope to give it a whirl this afternoon. Also, please note, I am particularly proud of my backdrop.
#buddingphotog

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...f5972ddc3c.jpg
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...854717832b.jpg
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...2ce7485913.jpg

seedsbelize 04-05-20 09:34 AM

My dad, DM, graduated from the 44th pilot class, in 1944. And he also went to war in 1944. DM 44 was his license plate for his entire driving career, once he returned to civilian life. The Chevrolet folk were distant relatives. Our car has one of their license plate frames still.

big john 04-05-20 09:42 AM


Originally Posted by Heathpack (Post 21401150)
Two separate accidents a few minutes apart on my route this morning, I had to turn back because the police shut the road. Boy Racers driving too fast in a winding canyon. Theyíve been zooming past me all week. Three total cars over the side.

The ambulance driving down the hill was not making haste.

I was on Soledad around 9:00 and heard sirens, was this about that time? I have ridden on that road since the 80s and don't remember the numbers of racers like there have been lately. Angeles Crest always has them and some of the other roads but that road, not so much.

Deal4Fuji 04-05-20 09:46 AM


Originally Posted by bampilot06 (Post 21401413)

morning

Velo Vol 04-05-20 09:47 AM


Originally Posted by MoAlpha (Post 21401529)
No, guys. The model includes no actual data on what people are doing in a given state. These are the same what ifs for all states. All that differs by state is current estimated cases and number of beds.

The last website you posted had a peak around April 20. This one, with the least restrictive (limited action) scenario, says it won't peak until May 11. With (in TN) 72000 deaths. wut

bampilot06 04-05-20 10:09 AM


Originally Posted by Velo Vol (Post 21401731)
The last website you posted had a peak around April 20. This one, with the least restrictive (limited action) scenario, says it won't peak until May 11. With (in TN) 72000 deaths. wut

donít worry, I read Tennessee mice are immune.

Velo Vol 04-05-20 10:36 AM


Originally Posted by bampilot06 (Post 21401770)
donít worry, I read Tennessee mice are immune.

I should probably be more worried about getting sick than I am.


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:03 AM.


Copyright © 2023 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.