Hey MoAlpha that IHME site you posted for COVID19 projections is interesting, but they have not updated since 4/1 and there is lots more data rolling in. Got any better or more updated sites to suggest?

I think I have recovered from doorbusting shoppegeddon to go for a ride. Back in a few hours.

Sad! No. I will look around.

Seems like flying now carries less contagion risk than grocery shopping.

Here’s another model web site, at least:

https://covidactnow.org

Don’t know whether the inputs differ from the UW one or when they ran it last, but it does give outputs based on different social control scenarios.

Didn’t see modeling there on a cursory look.

airports are empty. Only a couple of restaurants are open in philly and charlotte. I’m catching a ride home now, and there are only 5 passengers on this flight.

Lotta words and names there but where is the model?

Click on a state for the prediction.

Kudos.

https://covidactnow.org/us/tn

Unclear if TN would currently fall under the limited action or poor compliance conditions.

Thanks

No, guys. The model includes no actual data on what people are doing in a given state. These are the same what ifs for all states. All that differs by state is current estimated cases and number of beds.

Doom was a blockbuster breakthrough in the PC gaming world. I have fond memories playing as a space marine with my 13-14 year old son.

I had a Trek sponsorship when they introduced the Matrix rims. A lot of cussing went on with those.

Windows evil

After managing three sub-20 mile rides last week, my wife has asked me to bring her bike up from the workroom. It hasn't seen the road since September 2018. It would be quite a milestone.

I heard a pun this morning in a report about a plan to relieve toilet paper hoarding, saying “That’s a plan we all can get behind”. :twitchy:

Worth repeating.

Nice seat bag

I heard that a couple times this morning, too. Did you here the expert explaining why people hoard TP? He said people are trying to control at least one aspect of their worried lives.

Fact, the TP industry knows pretty well how much TP to make in a year and most of our paper is made here in the USA. It's a simple population and poop formula which doesn't change with the CV unless people start using it for things for which it's not intended which is fairly unlikely. As a result, the TP shortage is of our own making and not rational. The TP makers won't make more because there is no need. The current problem comes in delivery as hoarders have stripped the shelves.

Now, paper towels is a whole other problem because we've become cleaners like never before. :rolleyes:

The WheelPro truing stand is finally complete. I hope to give it a whirl this afternoon. Also, please note, I am particularly proud of my backdrop.
#buddingphotog

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...f5972ddc3c.jpg
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...854717832b.jpg
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/bikefor...2ce7485913.jpg

My dad, DM, graduated from the 44th pilot class, in 1944. And he also went to war in 1944. DM 44 was his license plate for his entire driving career, once he returned to civilian life. The Chevrolet folk were distant relatives. Our car has one of their license plate frames still.

I was on Soledad around 9:00 and heard sirens, was this about that time? I have ridden on that road since the 80s and don't remember the numbers of racers like there have been lately. Angeles Crest always has them and some of the other roads but that road, not so much.

morning

The last website you posted had a peak around April 20. This one, with the least restrictive (limited action) scenario, says it won't peak until May 11. With (in TN) 72000 deaths. wut

don’t worry, I read Tennessee mice are immune.

I should probably be more worried about getting sick than I am.